NCAAF record is 22-16-2 (+$461)
MLB record is 0-3 (-$303)
NBA record is 0-1 (-$100)
NFL record is 0-1 (-$100)
NCAAB record is 0-1 (-$100)
Massacred in that hoops game last night, I have to study up and get better. Hope to grind out a winning day:
UCLA at UTAH
Mora 14-8 ATS as pure visitor since 2012 and is 2- 1 SU vs. Whittingham.
Devontae Booker out for Utah and the Utes are 2-5 ATS last 7 in Salt Lake. Utah’s QB is pedestrian and Utah ranks just 75th on "O" (Utah offense has reached 400 total yards only three times this season). Conversely, UCLA are out-gaining their opponents by 203 ypg on the road and are 3-1 ATS in road games this year. Utes 4-8 ATS at home vs P12 I think UCLA wins.
Play: UCLA Money Line +100
INDIANA at MARYLAND
Terps interim HC Locksley is 3-0-1 ATS and MD are 4-0-1 ATS run (+30½ pts ATS Last 5 games). Indy 10-20 ATS in away games and have lost six in a row SU. Hoosiers are 119th on "D" (Indiana’s defense has given up 42 ppg and 520 ypg in Big 10 play) and travel after soul-crushing OT loss. IU has now lost 12 Big 10 road games in a row. Let’s make it 13.
Play: MARYLAND -1½-110
TEXAS A&M at VANDERBILT
Vandy 12-6-1 vs. line last 19 on board, and have covered 5 of last 6 as SEC host! Also, Vandy is 13-5 ATS at home vs SEC teams, and 10-4 ATS as a home dog.
A&M no covers last five this year (covered just once since Sept 12) and just 3-10 last 13 ATS in SEC games and A&M run is 2-7 ATS away vs SEC. Vandy’s last four
SEC games have been decided by a single-digit margin, so the 6 looks like a good play here.
Play: Vanderbilt +6 (-113)
--- Still working may add another game or 2.
MLB record is 0-3 (-$303)
NBA record is 0-1 (-$100)
NFL record is 0-1 (-$100)
NCAAB record is 0-1 (-$100)
Massacred in that hoops game last night, I have to study up and get better. Hope to grind out a winning day:
UCLA at UTAH
Mora 14-8 ATS as pure visitor since 2012 and is 2- 1 SU vs. Whittingham.
Devontae Booker out for Utah and the Utes are 2-5 ATS last 7 in Salt Lake. Utah’s QB is pedestrian and Utah ranks just 75th on "O" (Utah offense has reached 400 total yards only three times this season). Conversely, UCLA are out-gaining their opponents by 203 ypg on the road and are 3-1 ATS in road games this year. Utes 4-8 ATS at home vs P12 I think UCLA wins.
Play: UCLA Money Line +100
INDIANA at MARYLAND
Terps interim HC Locksley is 3-0-1 ATS and MD are 4-0-1 ATS run (+30½ pts ATS Last 5 games). Indy 10-20 ATS in away games and have lost six in a row SU. Hoosiers are 119th on "D" (Indiana’s defense has given up 42 ppg and 520 ypg in Big 10 play) and travel after soul-crushing OT loss. IU has now lost 12 Big 10 road games in a row. Let’s make it 13.
Play: MARYLAND -1½-110
TEXAS A&M at VANDERBILT
Vandy 12-6-1 vs. line last 19 on board, and have covered 5 of last 6 as SEC host! Also, Vandy is 13-5 ATS at home vs SEC teams, and 10-4 ATS as a home dog.
A&M no covers last five this year (covered just once since Sept 12) and just 3-10 last 13 ATS in SEC games and A&M run is 2-7 ATS away vs SEC. Vandy’s last four
SEC games have been decided by a single-digit margin, so the 6 looks like a good play here.
Play: Vanderbilt +6 (-113)
--- Still working may add another game or 2.
| Week 11 SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants (3-2 Last Week, 27-21-2 ATS YTD) | ||
| 1 | Dallas Pick’em | By 515 |
| 2 | NY Jets -2 | By 514 |
| 3 | Green Bay +1 | By 414 |
| 4 | Cincinnati +5 | By 410 |
| 5 | Minnesota -1 | By 409 |
Interesting that GB & Minny are both up there. FWIW: This happened previously in week 8 with GB & Denver (the start of GB's losing streak) and GB was the #3 pick and Denver was the #5 pick and the home team won.
Notes on today's games.
WASHINGTON at CAROLINA
Skins 5-13 vs. spread last 18 as visitor. Redskins are on a 10-20 ATS run
as a dog. Redskins since start of 2013 season 11-30 SU & 14-27 ATS.
Panthers 13-0 SU, 9-3-1 ATS last 13 reg.-season games. CAR 4-1 ATS as host this season and 14-7-2 ATS run as a home favorite. Panthers have scored 26+ in their last 7 games, though Carolina has been involved in 5 one-score games this year.
Panthers are 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home between away games
OAKLAND at DETROIT
Just the 3rd time in the past 9 seasons that OAK is listed as an away fav (2nd time this year, didn’t cover Wk 4 at CHI) - Raiders as a favorite: 6-20 ATS
Last 27 Raiders road games: 3-25 SU. Raiders vs. team with losing record: 45-87-2 ATS (since 1993). Raiders 3-1 ATS away in 2015 and Raiders are 11-2 ATS off a loss vs a team off a DD cover.
Lions 2-6-1 ATS this year, 0-4-1 last five ATS at Ford Field and 3-8 ATS vs AFC teams. Lions are currently 1-9 ATS before Thanksgiving game and are Lions are 1-8 SU and ATS in games after a SU underdog win vs the Packers
DALLAS at MIAMI
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 67% of the time, 60-30 ATS since 2010.
Romo is expected to return. Dallas 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS last seven (5 of those 7 losses have come by a TD or less). Cowboys have covered 9 of their last 13 road games and have an 8-1 ATS away record versus AFC opponents. But, As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 7 of last 20 games.
Dolphins 3-5 ATS last eight in 2015. Dolphins on 4-10 ATS skid since late 2014.
Miami 3-13 ATS in games off a SU underdog win when facing an NFC team.
INDIANAPOLIS at ATLANTA
Indy has covered 4 of last 5 but now no Luck, will start Hasselbeck. Colts are 2-0 SU without Andrew Luck. Colts 8-2 ATS run after bye. Colts 3-4 ATS last 7 against non-division teams. Colts are 8-1 ATS away in games versus opponents with rest.
ATL no covers last five games (-35½ pts ATS) but 7-3 ATS after bye. Falcons 2-9 ATS against AFC and are 1-8 ATS the past nine times as chalk. Atlanta also 2-8 ATS at home off a Bye week versus non-division teams. Finally, Falcons have three losses to sub-.500 teams in their last four games
ST. LOUIS at BALTIMORE
Dog is on a 14-2 ATS run in Raven games
Case Keenum to start for St. Louis. Rams 1-4 ATS on the road this season. Rams have a 5-0 ATS road record in games off a SU favorite loss.
Baltimore MINUS 10 turnovers - tied for worst in NFL Ravens 2-10 ATS last 12 reg season games, no covers last 7 at M&T Bank Stadium. But, Balt 19-9-2 ATS vs NFC. Seven of the Ravens' last 8 games have been decided by less than 6 points SU. Ravens’ 1-6 ATS run in games before Cleveland.
NY JETS at HOUSTON
Jets no covers last three and three losses in their last four games. But, the Jets have a 4-1-1 ATS run in away games. Jets are 7-1 ATS as favs of <9pts off a pair of ATS losses, but are 1-12 ATS as favorites off an upset loss
Houston has failed to cover in 13 of its past 20 home games and 0-4 ATS at home after playing on Monday nights.
GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA
Green Bay Away since 2012 season: 14-16 SU/13-17 ATS. Green Bay has dominated this series going 9-0-1 with the tie occurring when Rodgers was hurt. Rodgers has thrown for 702 yards and six touchdowns in his last two games (both losses). Packers 37-19 ATS run vs Division foes but 1-8 ATS on the road in Nov vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Pack 6-1 ATS away in games off three straight losses
If favored, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time since 2009 the Vikings will be favored in this matchup. Minny is on a 16-3 ATS run (+62½ pts ATS) Vikes 3-1 ATS last four as host in this series. Minny has covered eight in a row and are 4-0 ATS at Gopher Stadium this season. Vikings D has held 8 of 9 opponents to 20 or less this season. Minnesota is 12-3 ATS at home between away games
TAMPA BAY at PHILADELPHIA
Winston 3-1 ATS on road this year and Lovie 8-3 ATS last 11 away. Bucs have covered 4 of their last 5 road games. Bucs 13-3 ATS last 16 November games
Eagles 9-5 ATS last 14 reg.-season games at the Linc but Eagles just 5-8 SU their last 13 games. Eagles 1-11 ATS as favorites off a SU home loss and 0-7 ATS at home in games off a SU/ATS home loss when facing an opponent off a win. Mark Sanchez will start and he is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in his last eight home starts. When the Eagles are favored for the second week in a row: 8-23 ATS
DENVER at CHICAGO
Brock Osweiler era begins! Denver is the only offense with more INTs (18) than TDs (10). Denver 3-2 ATS away this year but no covers last two. However, Denver run 11-5-1 ATS against NFC. Denver all-time: 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in games against NFC North teams that are off a SU/ATS win. Also, Broncos 0-8 ATS in games after facing Kansas City when facing a team off a SU/ATS win
John Fox (and Adam Gase) take on the old team. Fox 4-1-1 ATS last six games with Chicago winning 4 of 6 SU. Bears: 6-1 ATS off back-to-back SU away wins. Bears have covered only 5 of their last 22 home games.
CINCINNATI at ARIZONA – Flexed to SNF
Bengals playing in primetime: 4-15 ATS run (since 10/1/2007). Bengals 7-0-1 ATS this year and +45 pts ATS away. Bengals 30-11-4 ATS vs Non-DIV teams. But, Cincy 1-6 ATS after facing a Monday night Non-DIV opponent.
Cardinals 1-2 ATS at home this year. Carson Palmer has six 300-yard passing games and 23 touchdown passes. AZ: 22-6-1 ATS vs Non-DIV teams and 9-4-1 ATS run as a home favorite.
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE
SF 1-5 vs. spread last six away. Niners 14-2 ATS as dogs of 3+ points off non-division game. But, SF just 2-7-1 ATS following a bye and on a 4-11 overall ATS run
SEA have won and covered last four at home vs. Niners. Seattle has dominated San Francisco the past 9 games going 8-0-1 ATS. Pete Carroll: 14-3 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in home division games. However, the Seahawks are on a 2-8-1 ATS run and those 2 wins were vs. the Bears & SF. In the last game between these two, SF had 142 yards of total offense. Seattle when laying 7+ at home: 7-11 ATS run
KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO – Flexed out of SNF
League-wide trend (KC): Teams that have covered the spread by 20+ in two straight games: 28-36-1 ATS. Chiefs have covered last three in series and are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games. Reid is 6-1 ATS as a road fav of <7 pts. However, KC on a 1-7 ATS road run. KC is now 0-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back division games. Also, the Chiefs are 4-9 SU and 2-11 ATS as road chalk when they have a losing record. KC as division favorites: 4-15 ATS run.
SD off a bye and they are 3-7 ATS in that role last 10. San Diego’s two victories this season have been against the Lions and Browns (combined record of 4-15) by a total of eight points. Chargers on a 5-15 ATS skid since early 2014. Chargers are 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS the last seven times hosting the Chiefs
WASHINGTON at CAROLINA
Skins 5-13 vs. spread last 18 as visitor. Redskins are on a 10-20 ATS run
as a dog. Redskins since start of 2013 season 11-30 SU & 14-27 ATS.
Panthers 13-0 SU, 9-3-1 ATS last 13 reg.-season games. CAR 4-1 ATS as host this season and 14-7-2 ATS run as a home favorite. Panthers have scored 26+ in their last 7 games, though Carolina has been involved in 5 one-score games this year.
Panthers are 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home between away games
OAKLAND at DETROIT
Just the 3rd time in the past 9 seasons that OAK is listed as an away fav (2nd time this year, didn’t cover Wk 4 at CHI) - Raiders as a favorite: 6-20 ATS
Last 27 Raiders road games: 3-25 SU. Raiders vs. team with losing record: 45-87-2 ATS (since 1993). Raiders 3-1 ATS away in 2015 and Raiders are 11-2 ATS off a loss vs a team off a DD cover.
Lions 2-6-1 ATS this year, 0-4-1 last five ATS at Ford Field and 3-8 ATS vs AFC teams. Lions are currently 1-9 ATS before Thanksgiving game and are Lions are 1-8 SU and ATS in games after a SU underdog win vs the Packers
DALLAS at MIAMI
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 67% of the time, 60-30 ATS since 2010.
Romo is expected to return. Dallas 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS last seven (5 of those 7 losses have come by a TD or less). Cowboys have covered 9 of their last 13 road games and have an 8-1 ATS away record versus AFC opponents. But, As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 7 of last 20 games.
Dolphins 3-5 ATS last eight in 2015. Dolphins on 4-10 ATS skid since late 2014.
Miami 3-13 ATS in games off a SU underdog win when facing an NFC team.
INDIANAPOLIS at ATLANTA
Indy has covered 4 of last 5 but now no Luck, will start Hasselbeck. Colts are 2-0 SU without Andrew Luck. Colts 8-2 ATS run after bye. Colts 3-4 ATS last 7 against non-division teams. Colts are 8-1 ATS away in games versus opponents with rest.
ATL no covers last five games (-35½ pts ATS) but 7-3 ATS after bye. Falcons 2-9 ATS against AFC and are 1-8 ATS the past nine times as chalk. Atlanta also 2-8 ATS at home off a Bye week versus non-division teams. Finally, Falcons have three losses to sub-.500 teams in their last four games
ST. LOUIS at BALTIMORE
Dog is on a 14-2 ATS run in Raven games
Case Keenum to start for St. Louis. Rams 1-4 ATS on the road this season. Rams have a 5-0 ATS road record in games off a SU favorite loss.
Baltimore MINUS 10 turnovers - tied for worst in NFL Ravens 2-10 ATS last 12 reg season games, no covers last 7 at M&T Bank Stadium. But, Balt 19-9-2 ATS vs NFC. Seven of the Ravens' last 8 games have been decided by less than 6 points SU. Ravens’ 1-6 ATS run in games before Cleveland.
NY JETS at HOUSTON
Jets no covers last three and three losses in their last four games. But, the Jets have a 4-1-1 ATS run in away games. Jets are 7-1 ATS as favs of <9pts off a pair of ATS losses, but are 1-12 ATS as favorites off an upset loss
Houston has failed to cover in 13 of its past 20 home games and 0-4 ATS at home after playing on Monday nights.
GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA
Green Bay Away since 2012 season: 14-16 SU/13-17 ATS. Green Bay has dominated this series going 9-0-1 with the tie occurring when Rodgers was hurt. Rodgers has thrown for 702 yards and six touchdowns in his last two games (both losses). Packers 37-19 ATS run vs Division foes but 1-8 ATS on the road in Nov vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Pack 6-1 ATS away in games off three straight losses
If favored, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time since 2009 the Vikings will be favored in this matchup. Minny is on a 16-3 ATS run (+62½ pts ATS) Vikes 3-1 ATS last four as host in this series. Minny has covered eight in a row and are 4-0 ATS at Gopher Stadium this season. Vikings D has held 8 of 9 opponents to 20 or less this season. Minnesota is 12-3 ATS at home between away games
TAMPA BAY at PHILADELPHIA
Winston 3-1 ATS on road this year and Lovie 8-3 ATS last 11 away. Bucs have covered 4 of their last 5 road games. Bucs 13-3 ATS last 16 November games
Eagles 9-5 ATS last 14 reg.-season games at the Linc but Eagles just 5-8 SU their last 13 games. Eagles 1-11 ATS as favorites off a SU home loss and 0-7 ATS at home in games off a SU/ATS home loss when facing an opponent off a win. Mark Sanchez will start and he is 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in his last eight home starts. When the Eagles are favored for the second week in a row: 8-23 ATS
DENVER at CHICAGO
Brock Osweiler era begins! Denver is the only offense with more INTs (18) than TDs (10). Denver 3-2 ATS away this year but no covers last two. However, Denver run 11-5-1 ATS against NFC. Denver all-time: 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in games against NFC North teams that are off a SU/ATS win. Also, Broncos 0-8 ATS in games after facing Kansas City when facing a team off a SU/ATS win
John Fox (and Adam Gase) take on the old team. Fox 4-1-1 ATS last six games with Chicago winning 4 of 6 SU. Bears: 6-1 ATS off back-to-back SU away wins. Bears have covered only 5 of their last 22 home games.
CINCINNATI at ARIZONA – Flexed to SNF
Bengals playing in primetime: 4-15 ATS run (since 10/1/2007). Bengals 7-0-1 ATS this year and +45 pts ATS away. Bengals 30-11-4 ATS vs Non-DIV teams. But, Cincy 1-6 ATS after facing a Monday night Non-DIV opponent.
Cardinals 1-2 ATS at home this year. Carson Palmer has six 300-yard passing games and 23 touchdown passes. AZ: 22-6-1 ATS vs Non-DIV teams and 9-4-1 ATS run as a home favorite.
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE
SF 1-5 vs. spread last six away. Niners 14-2 ATS as dogs of 3+ points off non-division game. But, SF just 2-7-1 ATS following a bye and on a 4-11 overall ATS run
SEA have won and covered last four at home vs. Niners. Seattle has dominated San Francisco the past 9 games going 8-0-1 ATS. Pete Carroll: 14-3 SU and 13-3-1 ATS in home division games. However, the Seahawks are on a 2-8-1 ATS run and those 2 wins were vs. the Bears & SF. In the last game between these two, SF had 142 yards of total offense. Seattle when laying 7+ at home: 7-11 ATS run
KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO – Flexed out of SNF
League-wide trend (KC): Teams that have covered the spread by 20+ in two straight games: 28-36-1 ATS. Chiefs have covered last three in series and are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games. Reid is 6-1 ATS as a road fav of <7 pts. However, KC on a 1-7 ATS road run. KC is now 0-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back division games. Also, the Chiefs are 4-9 SU and 2-11 ATS as road chalk when they have a losing record. KC as division favorites: 4-15 ATS run.
SD off a bye and they are 3-7 ATS in that role last 10. San Diego’s two victories this season have been against the Lions and Browns (combined record of 4-15) by a total of eight points. Chargers on a 5-15 ATS skid since early 2014. Chargers are 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS the last seven times hosting the Chiefs
