Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

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Saturday 9-19-15 NCAAF All lines 5D Reduced Juice 9-19-15 12:45 am

#121 Buffalo +2 (108)
#141 Rice -7 1/2 (105)
#149 Auburn + 6 1/2 +105
#151 Ole Miss +7 +100
#161 Utah State +7 +105
#181 W Kentucky + 1 1/2 (107)
#197 Pittsburgh + 5 1/2 (105)

Friday 1-0, YTD 11-13 (295)
 

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Plays from the big sombrero:

North Carolina -7½ (-110)
Miami Ohio +20½ (-110
Texas +6 (-115)
Colorado State +3 (-115)
San Diego State -17½ (-110)

GL
 

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MLB:

MIA +195

PHI +107

KC -125

NCAAF:

126 North Carolina

136 Duke

154 Purdue

165 Cincy

174 Col STATE

176 Maryland

184 Texas

197 Pitt
 

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Saturday 9-19-15 NCAAF All lines 5D Reduced Juice 9-19-15 12:45 am

#121 Buffalo +2 (108)
#141 Rice -7 1/2 (105)
#149 Auburn + 6 1/2 +105
#151 Ole Miss +7 +100
#161 Utah State +7 +105
#181 W Kentucky + 1 1/2 (107)
#197 Pittsburgh + 5 1/2 (105)

Friday 1-0, YTD 11-13 (295)

Adding UMass +13 (105)
 
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yest 7-4 +645
YTD YTD 295-338 +6320

Not all these multi unit bets were posted in this thread but they were all posted in the Tracker Forum. Gonna give the record for perspective in case anyone is riding this stuff with me.

2x 22-13 +2510

3x 16-12 +879
5x 1-0 +500

Saturday:

2x Cub +108 (vs St L)
NYY +114 (@ NYM)
SFo -1' +166 (vs Azo)
Mia +197 (@ Wash)
Bos +161 (@ Tor)
Det +118 (vs KCy)
CWS +150 (@ Cle)
Oak +129 (@ Hou)
Gm 2 Minny +118 (vs LAA)
Cincy +137 (@ Milw)
Phi +107 (@ Atl)
Sea +170 (@ Tex)
Col -1' +170 (vs SDo)
Pit +183 (@ LAD)

Whew Thanks
 

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Plays from the big sombrero:

North Carolina -7½ (-110)
Miami Ohio +20½ (-110
Texas +6 (-115)
Colorado State +3 (-115)
San Diego State -17½ (-110)

GL

The missed XP for Texas was the best possible outcome for Longhorn bettors but that Texas kicker must be in hiding. What a shame, it was a great comeback.
So my NCAAF record is 3-1-1 for +$190
My MLB record is 0-3 (-$303)
 

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Some notes on today’s games in case this helps with anyone’s picks:

NEW ENGLAND at BUFFALO
Pats 20-3 SU against the Bills last 23. But, Bills have covered 3 of last 5 in series and Rex Ryan has covered last four and 5 of last 6 vs. Belichick. Also, Belichick 2-7 vs. spread last 9 as visiting chalk. Home team is on a 26-6 ATS run in Patriot games and Pats gave up 464 yards vs. Pitt in week 1. Pats 0-7 ATS run last 7 times after facing Pittsburgh.

DETROIT at MINNESOTA
Minny on 15-8 ATS run since late 2013. Detroit 2-7 ATS away in regular season under Caldwell and now 8-20-1 ATS last 28 regular season road games. Lions 2-9 SU/3-7-1 ATS run at Minnesota.

ARIZONA at CHICAGO
Arians is 11-5 ATS on road in regular season with Cards. Bears only 5-16-2 vs. spread last 23 at Soldier Field. Note: Bears did out gain Pack 402-322 and had 25 first downs last week.

TENNESSEE at CLEVELAND
Whiz is 1-11 ATS off a SU dog win vs an opponent off a SU loss, while Pettine is 6-1 ATS off a SU loss. But, Browns on 1-7 ATS run.

SAN DIEGO at CINCINNATI
Cincy 6-0 ATS run vs the AFC West (big win @ Oak LW) but the visitor in Charger games is on a 6-2 run. SD 12-6-1 as road dog since 2012.

ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON
Skins on 7-18 spread run, and a hideous 10-24 ATS last 34 games since late 2012. Redskins have failed to get to 21 points in 13 of their last 18 games.

DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA
Philly lost their last 2 home games by double digits ATS. Cowboys have won and covered last three at Philly. Dallas 11-4 as road dog past 3 seasons and covered 8 of 9 away games last year (4-0 Last year as road dogs).

Finally, there are two “circadian advantage” (one team traveling through 2+ time zones the day before playing) games with West Coast teams playing early starts SD at Cincy and SF @ Pittsburgh.


I think this card kind of stinks.

Lastly:

Week 2 SuperContest NFL Picks By Most Contestants
(5-0 Last Week, 5-0 ATS YTD)
1Pittsburgh -5.5By 608
2Cincinnati -3By 499
3Baltimore -5.5By 476
4Arizona -1.5By 428
5Tennessee -1By 414

Good luck
 

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BUF is 1-16 ATS vs NE off Win by 7+ points. BUF is 13-2 ATS vs NE in first 4 Games of Season since 1982. If NE scores 23+ they will Win as they are 176-15 SU when they do. NE is 22-6 ATS Away since 2003 when not giving at least 2 points. Last year in Game #16 after Belchadick stressed how important all the games are he pulled an utter no show vs BUF at Home.

CHI is 52-15 ATS off an SU Loss when facing a team off a Win.

TEN is 2-15 ATS after winning by 4 or more points since 2010. TEN blew an insurmountable lead at Home vs CLE last year.

STL is 0-6 ATS in Games 2 or 3 of the Season if off a Win since 2004.

ATL is 0-10 ATS in Week 2 Road Openers since 1989.
NYG is Favored off DAL. Teams off DAL and now laying points are 2-16.

SEA is 15-2 SU in Primetime. Not only is GB seeking Revenge from last year's miracle Playoff Loss. They still haven't gotten payback from one of the worst NFL screwings ever, the 14-12 Replacement Ref Debacle in Seattle in 2012. I'm fully expecting some 24-23 Michigan St-Oregon type Bullshit tonight.
 
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NFL 6-3 +272

Sunday Week 2

///

Something that I reaserched that you guys should know:

In the last ten years, Week 2 Home Dogs rule Week 2 Road Favs 30 to 16.

This week's eligible teams:

Chicago +2 (vs Azo)
Cleveland +1 (vs Tenny)
Washington +3 (vs St L)
Oakland +4' (vs Bal)
Jacksonville +5' (vs Mia)

My plays:

San Fran +5' -108 (@ Pit)
I think that losing Harbaugh is gonna free this team. Kaepernick played error free ball last week. Something he only did in half of his games last year. They didn't allow Minny to get into the end zone last week, something that D hasn't done in 24 games. In the last three years, San Fran is 15-9-1 ATS on the road.

Washington +3 +102 (vs St L)
Since 2003, the team who beat the SB loser SU in Game 1, is 1-5 ATS when going on the road in Game 2.

Jacksonville +6 -103 (vs Mia)
Two teams characterized by their Defenses. I'll take the Week 2 Home Dog (30-16 ATS) getting two generous field goals in this cross state matchup.

Dallas +6' -104 (@ Philly)
Dallas is 8-1 SU over the last three years in the Division. Getting near a TD? OK.

Have a play on Seattle later but it's currently being juiced to death (-118 at Pinny right now). Gonna post the play and wait on the line. I'd rather it came back to +3 at plus money. We'll see.

Seattle +? (@ GBy)
Since 2002, the Super Bowl loser is 7-0 SU in Game 2 when losing Game 1 outright.

///

Good luck guys and gals.




 

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Went 4-3-1 in Fotball yesterday, now 15-18 here.

Every MLB game I bet is an Anal Rape. My team scores first in every game and then loses in the 8th or later. Yesterday was PHI+KC, 2 more games I win in a 'normal' year, whatever the fuck normal is...just rambling in frustration. Sucks being successful at something for 10+ years averaging 100 Units profit when you still have the expectation of acheiving the same results if you put in the same tedious and time-consuming effort. Yet here I am down over 10 Units for a full Season, won only 28 Units last MLB Season, and lost 38 Units in 2013. So can I call 3 years a pattern? Or has something about MLB changed?
 
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With a little help from my friends.

Add:

NYG -2' -103 (vs Atl)
Atlanta is 0-10 ATS in Week 2 Road games since 1989. (credit Scott L, the RX)

Tenny ? (@ Clev)
Was also reminded by Scott that Tenny led 28-3 before losing to Cleveland 28-29 at home last year. I'm guessing that they had this game circled since the schedule came out. Line appears to be moving in my favor. I'll be back with the line on this one.

 

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NFL Sunday 9-20.

#261 Houston +3 (103)
#263 TB +9 (102)
#265 SF + 5 1/2 (102)
#267 Detroit + 2 1/2 +105
#279 Atlanta + 2 1/2
#284 Jax + 61/2 (107)
#285 Dallas +6 1/2

2015 NFL:
Thursday 1-0 +104 YTD 4-0 + 416
 

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MIA +250 / TEX -102 / UN 9 bos-tor / OV 7 bal-tam / OV 8.5 min-laa .....

NFL Prop Play = CIN - 1/2 +110 in the 2nd Quarter

NOR SAINTS -8.5

OVER buf-ne 44

CHI BEARS +3 -120

WASH SKINS +3.5

OVER mia-jacks 42
 
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yest 8-6 +649
YTD 628-719 +6929

2x 23-13 +2726
3x 16-12 +879
5x 1-0 +500

Sunday:

Bos +174 (@ Tor)
Det +138 (vs KCy)
CWS +158 (@ Cle)
Phi +135 (@ Atl)
Mia +245 (@ Wash)
Oak +190 (@ Hou)
Minny -104 (vs LAA)
Minny -1' +197
St L +125 (@ Cub)
SFo -1' +157 (vs Azo)
LAD +114 (vs Pit)
NYY +143 (@ NYM)

Thanks
 

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NFL Sunday 9-20.

#261 Houston +3 (103)
#263 TB +9 (102)
#265 SF + 5 1/2 (102)
#267 Detroit + 2 1/2 +105
#279 Atlanta + 2 1/2
#284 Jax + 61/2 (107)
#285 Dallas +6 1/2

2015 NFL:
Thursday 1-0 +104 YTD 4-0 + 416

Adding Seattle +3 +105
 

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CIN won the 2Q by 7-3. They are now 14-1 to Cover at Home in the 2Q by a combined 151-32 Score.
 

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GB won the 1Q by 10-3. GB has now covered its last 8 at Home in the 1Q by a combined score of 103-10.
 

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