Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

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yest (Sunday) 4-8 -1323
YTD 22-38 -3807

Monday continued add:

3X Cub -1' +121 (vs Cincy)
3x Texas +161 (@ Sea)

Thanks
 

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Utah is dropping all these games down the stretch that they've been big favorites in. LAC, Dallas and now they have to beat the Lakers the final night of the season to get to 41 wins.

Houston likely beats Sacto in the finale and then Jazz will have nothing to play for and it'll be Kobe's final game. Tough to say how much fight Utah would show in that spot. Favors likely sits atleast...

Looks like you may have escaped my wrath Vitterd. We will see....
 

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Utah is dropping all these games down the stretch that they've been big favorites in. LAC, Dallas and now they have to beat the Lakers the final night of the season to get to 41 wins.

Houston likely beats Sacto in the finale and then Jazz will have nothing to play for and it'll be Kobe's final game. Tough to say how much fight Utah would show in that spot. Favors likely sits atleast...

Looks like you may have escaped my wrath Vitterd. We will see....

Ha! So if Utah loses I think it's splits and no blood right? Do you wanna do anything for playoffs? Maybe draft series picks? It's mostly chalk so how about drafting picks and in how many games.
 
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Tuesday add:

3X Wash -1' +127 (vs Atl)
3X Philly -101 (vs SDo)
3X NYM -130 (vs Mia)
2X NYM -1' +176
3X Colorado -109 (vs SFo)
3X Oakland -109 (vs LAA)
3X Texas +113 (@ Sea)
 
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NBA

yest 3-1 +196
YTD 248-230-4 +622

Tuesday:

NY K +11' -109 (@ Indy)
Detroit -2 -104 (vs Mia)
LA Clip -8' -110 (vs Memp)
 

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I've had 2 great days in MLB this year yet still -1.83 Units. Yesterday I came close to sweeping with 4 Dogs but CIN. leading 3-0 all game fell apart late. We still made 3.4 Units for the day but that was a 2.85 Unit swing. Season = .1.83 Units.

Da Hoop split out and is 362-337.

MIA +2 / OVER 7.5 +105 phi-sd / BAL +148
 

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Ha! So if Utah loses I think it's splits and no blood right? Do you wanna do anything for playoffs? Maybe draft series picks? It's mostly chalk so how about drafting picks and in how many games.

I really don't have much interest in figuring out if GS/SA/Cle/OKC/LAC will sweep or win in 5/6 games so maybe just some bets on the actual series if there is a disagreement.

Only series that won't have long odds will be the 2 series in the East with the 3-6 seed teams and maybe Indiana/Toronto.
 

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HOU is -15 vs SAC tonight. An SU Win by HOU kicks the Jazz out of the Playoffs. Sometime during warmups the Jazz will look up at the scoreboard and see HOU leading 80-65 as they are about to face Kobe in his last game. This means the Jazz are playing a scrimmage. Lakers should be -3 already by now, and are still +5.5
 

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HOU is -15 vs SAC tonight. An SU Win by HOU kicks the Jazz out of the Playoffs. Sometime during warmups the Jazz will look up at the scoreboard and see HOU leading 80-65 as they are about to face Kobe in his last game. This means the Jazz are playing a scrimmage. Lakers should be -3 already by now, and are still +5.5

That makes sense and I posted something similar on the main board like 30 mins ago.

The Lakers suck and Utah is still pretty good, -3 is way too far. Lakers shouldn't be -3 over anyone at home but maybe Philly and Phoenix but it likely wouldn't close at +5.5 either. Probably go to Jazz like -3 once Houston wins.

The Stifle Tower Gobert is out and Favors is questionable already. Weird line.
 

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A problem with it being Kobe night is he is the biggest net-negative player in the league and he probably wants to take 25 shots tonight. That is actually a big reason the line seems so out of whack.
 

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That makes sense and I posted something similar on the main board like 30 mins ago.

The Lakers suck and Utah is still pretty good, -3 is way too far. Lakers shouldn't be -3 over anyone at home but maybe Philly and Phoenix but it likely wouldn't close at +5.5 either. Probably go to Jazz like -3 once Houston wins.

The Stifle Tower Gobert is out and Favors is questionable already. Weird line.

I was exaggerating a little for effect. If I were the Linesmaker I'd probably have opened Jazz -2.5. I took the 5.5 just for middling purposes. I'm hoping to see the line tank while HOU coasts. But it may go off the board so I'll probably have to buy back before tipoff.

I don't think HOU will cover either. If you had gotten SAC +10 or higher in their previous 34 Road games outsides of SAN you'd have gone 31-3.


I feel bad for the public. They're gonna get buried tonight. You can already tell just by all the moronic posts in the Service Play section.
 

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Scott:

have nba posted totals increased by a large margin from last year? I'm not big on playing totals but you see very few under 200. I can recall 180's in the somewhat recent past. What exactly caused this in your opinion?
 

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I was exaggerating a little for effect. If I were the Linesmaker I'd probably have opened Jazz -2.5. I took the 5.5 just for middling purposes. I'm hoping to see the line tank while HOU coasts. But it may go off the board so I'll probably have to buy back before tipoff.

I don't think HOU will cover either. If you had gotten SAC +10 or higher in their previous 34 Road games outsides of SAN you'd have gone 31-3.


I feel bad for the public. They're gonna get buried tonight. You can already tell just by all the moronic posts in the Service Play section.

In their previous 34 road games, they weren't benching all their starters so not really applicable. For the great majority of those games, they were significantly less of underdogs than they are tonight.
 

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Scott:

have nba posted totals increased by a large margin from last year? I'm not big on playing totals but you see very few under 200. I can recall 180's in the somewhat recent past. What exactly caused this in your opinion?

What caused it was teams playing faster and shooting more 3's, more screen/roll as opposed to isolations or postups. There aren't many teams that play at a methodical pace anymore either.

The game has mostly been deconstructed by analytics-oriented front offices figuring out through assembly of data that this was the most efficient way to play offensively.
 

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Then also, once they figured out this was the optimal way to play, they drafted and signed guys who fit this style of play and it has been a slow build over the past 4-5 years to what we have now.
 

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