Poly Forum Picks and Game Discussion Thread (ongoing....)

[ScottL]

In their previous 34 road games, they weren't benching all their starters so not really applicable. For the great majority of those games, they were significantly less of underdogs than they are tonight.

True. But just won SU at PHX with the world on the Suns. And have had at least 2 of top 3 starters out in last several games.

Some teams do get out of the way in situations like this. MIN totally stepped aside for HOU the other night and prior to that game MIN was hot. Also Karl is getting fired after the game. So yeah, if HOU wins 127-92 I won't be shocked. But I'd much rather follow my numbers.

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2 Year Trends last day of Season:

Dogs of +2 or higher are 15-9 ATS last 2 years

OV vs UN = 18-10

Both Teams clinched Playoff berth = 6-1 OVER

Both Teams eliminated from Playoff Home Team = 0-5 ATS

Team Locked into Playoff position (can't improve or fall back) facing team who is in with seeding undetermined, or who is eliminated,
Locked in Team = 3-11 ATS

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Vit I don't know what I'm shorter on to answer your question, time or knowledge. Pats, what do you think?

3 guard offenses spreading the floor? Era of the big center in the past?
Heck, Milwaukee's Offense is run by a 6'11" "Point-Forward."

 

[ScottL]

Ah I see Pats already responded

 

[ScottL]

What caused it was teams playing faster and shooting more 3's, more screen/roll as opposed to isolations or postups. There aren't many teams that play at a methodical pace anymore either.

The game has mostly been deconstructed by analytics-oriented front offices figuring out through assembly of data that this was the most efficient way to play offensively.

Somewhere there are NFL execs and doctors and scientists sitting in a room trying to design a device for players that will result in no damage when 2 of their heads collide.

 

[vitterd]

What caused it was teams playing faster and shooting more 3's, more screen/roll as opposed to isolations or postups. There aren't many teams that play at a methodical pace anymore either.

The game has mostly been deconstructed by analytics-oriented front offices figuring out through assembly of data that this was the most efficient way to play offensively.

Makes sense.....it just kinda felt like it happened overnight. Thanks.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah, I have no clue what happens with Kings tonight. Curry's bro is a pretty good shooter/scorer for a Frank Stallone type. Just really was saying that Sacto not getting blownout much on the road this year is tough to put much faith into since the team is different. Usually a team like that is much better at home than on the road though, and they've only been better by a slim margin. Not sure that extends to their backups though.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Makes sense.....it just kinda felt like it happened overnight. Thanks.

The reason it felt like that is because avg total of 195 to 197 is subtle, then 197 to 199 is subtle, then 199 to 201 you notice a little more. But once you get into 203 to 205+ always being the norm, that is a little more noticeable. And it has accelerated more the last few years. That's a big reason I think Houston flopped hard this year was because they were 1 of the first teams to crack these codes, but now everyone has some idea of what to do and their edge has decreased.

Another thing is, most of these teams play the same way now. They got all the same information so the game is more homogenized than ever. Everyone just runs a ton of screen rolls and shoots 3's. Easiest way to compete even if you aren't loaded with talent (think Boston or Charlotte or Portland being teams that are very good at this but don't look like they should be winning as much as they do) It makes for an entertaining game but it also could use a little more variety.

Other than changing the rules to accommodate post play or make guard play tougher, there isn't really much you can do.

http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats/_/sort/paceFactor

Just something as simple as that can really tell the story. In 2012-2013 no teams had over 100 pace, this past year 7 teams did. 11 teams had a higher pace than #1 Houston that year. That's only 3 years ago.

Just basic stats like 3 pointers attempted are up huge. You can see it on the stats page as well.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/offense-per-game/sort/avgThreePointFieldGoalsAttempted

 

[PatsFan1283]

I was never really that big into betting NBA regular season games unless something jumped out. No more than maybe 30-50 bets a year. Win totals, props, fantasy and of course playoffs is always how I got my fix.

But betting regular season games now is harder than ever IMO, when you have teams shooting 25 3's a game, it becomes more of a make or miss league than ever and is really tough to handicap. Even the guys who suck just shoot like 800 3's a day in the offseason and have a chance to get hot and take a bet from you. A lot of variance...

 

[Michelangelo]

Add MLB Wednesday

3X Toronto -126 (vs NYY)
3X Boston -120 (vs Bal)
3X Cleveland -112 (@ TBy)
3X Minny +100 (vs CWS)
3X St L -1' +161 (vs Milw)
3X Colorado -107 (vs SFo)
3X LA Dodgers -1' +144 (vs Azo)

 

[Michelangelo]

NBA

yest 1-2 -113
YTD 249-232-4 +509

Wednesday:

Sacramento +16 -109 (@ Hou)
Minnesota -9 -105 (vs NOr)
Washington +7 -103 vs Atl)
Boston -4' -107 (vs Mia)

 

[ScottL]

Yeah, I have no clue what happens with Kings tonight. Curry's bro is a pretty good shooter/scorer for a Frank Stallone type. Just really was saying that Sacto not getting blownout much on the road this year is tough to put much faith into since the team is different. Usually a team like that is much better at home than on the road though, and they've only been better by a slim margin. Not sure that extends to their backups though.

HaHaHa (resists urge to post "Far From Over" Youtube vid)

 

[ScottL]

MLB (-1.35 Units): WAS -142 / STL -143 / TOR -1.5 +160 / BAL +113 / HOU -1.5 +185

 

[ScottL]

SAC +16 / OVER 187.5 dal-san / MIL -5 / PHI +9.5 / LAK +4.5 / MEM +18

 

[vitterd]

Mlb wed (0-0 ytd)

Seattle -1 (-108)

Rockies -105

 

[ScottL]

Vitterd finally takes the club up North for Opening Day.

Starts off by winning in extras with a 2 Run Dong.

If Rockies lose post that your 2-0. I just want to watch the fun that follows ;-)

 

[ScottL]

This is the definition of "All Hell Breaks Loose."

Some of these 5 figure a week check cashing MFers don't even have enough pride to be embarrassed.


Lakers by 30

 

[vitterd]

This is the definition of "All Hell Breaks Loose."

Some of these 5 figure a week check cashing MFers don't even have enough pride to be embarrassed.


Lakers by 30

I think the Bulls are currently on a 53-15 run. Nice last game effort sixers.

 

[vitterd]

Classic sixers ending for a non cover. Down 10 with 18 secs.....going in for cover layup until bulls converge trying to defend. Kick out for 3....clank. I can't think of a better way to end the season

 

[ScottL]

Kendall Marshall passes on a gimme layup so they can miss a 3. I caught a 10 for half my bet. Still pissed. 2 point Middles in most of the other games. Can't hit one!

 

[vitterd]

Kendall Marshall passes on a gimme layup so they can miss a 3. I caught a 10 for half my bet. Still pissed. 2 point Middles in most of the other games. Can't hit one!

You think he passed it up? I thought he got triple teamed and couldn't get it off. Maybe I saw it wrong.

 

[ScottL]

He was not uncontested, but he did get to the basket. I doubt a Bulls player would have contacted him up 10 that late. The Sixers passed on a 2 point shot in their previous possession as well and that 3 was an airball. When it comes a one score and cover situation at the end of a game this team hangs more 0s than the Braves and Twins.