Overall
61-47 (+13,875)
taking a break. Chalks seem to dominate in August and September and that's not good for me. Bullpen breakdowns, like tbay tonight, get more frequent late in the year. Good luck to those of you who gamble.
See ya when football kicks off.
This is why I tend to stick to first 5 inning bets for the most part. I've won 1st 5 bets that would have been full game losers more often than first 5 losses that went on to be full game winners.
The starting pitchers is probably the biggest factor in why I select most of my plays...and by the seventh inning or so, most of the SPs aren't on the mound anymore. Perfect example today...the Nats were an obscene -270 with Max Scherzer on the mound. Nats won the first five, but went on to lose the game. If you want a quick way to spot these...when a SP has a low ERA with a crappy W/L record, that's probably a good indication that team has a shitty bullpen.
The only way I can make a case for playing a full game instead of first five is if I think a pitcher is undervalued and going against a guy who is overvalued. If a better than average guy is going up against Kershaw, for ex, and is more than +200, I don't think he'll win the first five since that's when Kershaw usually dominates...but may play the full game and hope he hangs with Kershaw for the seven innings, keeping the score close (or hopefully tied). Once you get into bullpen vs bullpen, it's generally a coin toss. I'll gladly take the +200 or more on either team in that situation.
Baseball does suck this time of year. Just seems like there are very few lines which really provide value. Big difference between betting what you perceive is value and betting just for action.