Ironlock makes great points but it all depends one what YOU, the GAMBLER, intend to do with this information...
I still feel that PINNACLE is a MUST but I also understand what Ironlock is saying...
Be careful when Pinny has the BEST NUMBER because you may go broke betting it, lol..
Good stuff...
Ken
I still feel that PINNACLE is a MUST but I also understand what Ironlock is saying...
Be careful when Pinny has the BEST NUMBER because you may go broke betting it, lol..
Good stuff...
Ken
You are right I am not going to post theplays, I don't need to, because even if I did there would be no way to priove their reliabiltiy anyways, and the dance would begin again.
I am always in the middle of these arguments at one time or another. And I like it actually. because every time I am, it reinforce in me that the way I do things is right. After all if I am really winning, and I am, and everyone else is losing then I must be doing somthing right.
Even if I did put up the numbers,and I have been doing nothing but putting up numbers on this site for the past week, it still doesn't matter. People have their heads so deep in the sand that they still wouldn't belive it even if they saw it, and any "proof" given would be deemed "fabricated. That is why I said "let's say I post them". I knew when I made the post someone would say post them. But I also knew I wouldn't. Call me a liar now, or after doesn't matter. I know the results and I have them.
But there ARE maybe 100 or so in here that I was tracking for a month or so this summer, those are the only ones that can in fact be verified as they were posted in a running manner and cannot be purgored.
But you guys keep believing what you want, that makes it easier for me and the others to continue to do what we do.
Not to mention that I am not going to post up on some forum the numbers that I have tracked and are the basis for what I know to be true.
Call that a conspiracy outlook, but if you do think I am that paranoid do you really think I would put that up for nothing. If I had any intention of posting it I would have just posted it, not just talked about it.
But the numbers are not as precise as you have tried to make them. I also love how everyone likes to break everything down into precise percentages when they are given numbers and results. The percentages are irrelevant, the fact that they will consistantly and are available on a daily basis is the key.
So you don't even need muy numbers, just go look at the live lines tracker here at The RX or even Donbest or any other line service, it won't take long for you to see that Pin is not always right, and if you track the rest of the season you will see the facts.
I am always in the middle of these arguments at one time or another. And I like it actually. because every time I am, it reinforce in me that the way I do things is right. After all if I am really winning, and I am, and everyone else is losing then I must be doing somthing right.
Even if I did put up the numbers,and I have been doing nothing but putting up numbers on this site for the past week, it still doesn't matter. People have their heads so deep in the sand that they still wouldn't belive it even if they saw it, and any "proof" given would be deemed "fabricated. That is why I said "let's say I post them". I knew when I made the post someone would say post them. But I also knew I wouldn't. Call me a liar now, or after doesn't matter. I know the results and I have them.
But there ARE maybe 100 or so in here that I was tracking for a month or so this summer, those are the only ones that can in fact be verified as they were posted in a running manner and cannot be purgored.
But you guys keep believing what you want, that makes it easier for me and the others to continue to do what we do.
Not to mention that I am not going to post up on some forum the numbers that I have tracked and are the basis for what I know to be true.
Call that a conspiracy outlook, but if you do think I am that paranoid do you really think I would put that up for nothing. If I had any intention of posting it I would have just posted it, not just talked about it.
But the numbers are not as precise as you have tried to make them. I also love how everyone likes to break everything down into precise percentages when they are given numbers and results. The percentages are irrelevant, the fact that they will consistantly and are available on a daily basis is the key.
So you don't even need muy numbers, just go look at the live lines tracker here at The RX or even Donbest or any other line service, it won't take long for you to see that Pin is not always right, and if you track the rest of the season you will see the facts.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by THE SHRINK:
Ironlock makes great points but it all depends one what YOU, the GAMBLER, intend to do with this information...
I still feel that PINNACLE is a MUST but I also understand what Ironlock is saying...
Be careful when Pinny has the BEST NUMBER because you may go broke betting it, lol..
Good stuff...
Ken <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You are right Ken, and I probably made a mistake in not stating what I thought was obvious...
This is one of the best books. One of the lowest vigs. One of the most reliable in payouts etc...
For Scalping..its a must.
For Middling...its a must.
For Marc Lawrence trend picks..its a must.
For betting your own personal opinions on NFL sides...its a must.
But for Winning...its a roadblock.
In my humble opinion.
I should have said...if you are going to win, the way "I" win, then Pinnacle is not the first book on the list.
Ironlock makes great points but it all depends one what YOU, the GAMBLER, intend to do with this information...
I still feel that PINNACLE is a MUST but I also understand what Ironlock is saying...
Be careful when Pinny has the BEST NUMBER because you may go broke betting it, lol..
Good stuff...
Ken <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You are right Ken, and I probably made a mistake in not stating what I thought was obvious...
This is one of the best books. One of the lowest vigs. One of the most reliable in payouts etc...
For Scalping..its a must.
For Middling...its a must.
For Marc Lawrence trend picks..its a must.
For betting your own personal opinions on NFL sides...its a must.
But for Winning...its a roadblock.
In my humble opinion.
I should have said...if you are going to win, the way "I" win, then Pinnacle is not the first book on the list.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wantitall4moi:
So you don't even need muy numbers, just go look at the live lines tracker here at The RX or even Donbest or any other line service, it won't take long for you to see that Pin is not always right, and if you track the rest of the season you will see the facts. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I have DB-P and do track them...which is how I knew you were full of shit. I don't doubt that you are a winner..you seem to know the market.
What I do know to be bullshit however, is that you win by fading Pinnacles opinions.
500wins-400losses fading Pinnacle...huh?
My guess is that the majority of the 900 were +160 to +220 dogs and you simply forgot to adjust the profit/loss. Just kidding my man.
Wish more handicapping theory was discussed on these boards rather than BTJ, SG, white sneaker, JJGOLD, political nonsense.
So you don't even need muy numbers, just go look at the live lines tracker here at The RX or even Donbest or any other line service, it won't take long for you to see that Pin is not always right, and if you track the rest of the season you will see the facts. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I have DB-P and do track them...which is how I knew you were full of shit. I don't doubt that you are a winner..you seem to know the market.
What I do know to be bullshit however, is that you win by fading Pinnacles opinions.
500wins-400losses fading Pinnacle...huh?
My guess is that the majority of the 900 were +160 to +220 dogs and you simply forgot to adjust the profit/loss. Just kidding my man.
Wish more handicapping theory was discussed on these boards rather than BTJ, SG, white sneaker, JJGOLD, political nonsense.
Personally, I've had good success with Pinnacle. Since I fundamentally handicap the games first and then shop for the best line and vig, I find a good deal of my play will be with Pinnacle. Basically it comes down to I'm paying a cheaper price for the side that I have capped. If Pinnacle has raised it's vig on the side I am on above some other shop, I just use that one instead. It occurs more often then one might think. I have often seen Pinnacle having a spread with vig at -114 and I'll find the same spread still at -110 at many shops. I don't let Pinnacles number influence my play. Fundamentals first, best price thereafter.
To tell you the truth I am not sure the precise numbers. But I do know that it is not as lopsided as people think it is. That is why I posed the question the way I did. I will admit it probably isn't that high, but I am pretty sure that it is better than 50% the "wrong" way, but that doesn't prove either argument for or against. As it might be some opinion and they are wrong, and then it might be some steam and that too is wrong. Trust me, i would rather have it thatway. I like Pin, I am just not in awe of them. They are an outlet, and a necessary mean to an end.
I am also like debating this shit. I know when I start posting stuff that I have info on I get a little heated. But I don't take anything personal on here. Nor do I mean anything personal when I get on a ramble.
But I am sure you have seen these threads a few times yourselves, and it just irks me that people hold Pin to some higher standard. That is one of the reasons why I try to keep track of all the moves. BECAUSE so many guys that I have respect for all said the same thing. But I am not the type of person to follow along withthe crowd or believe someone on a say so or reputation. So that is why I started doing it.
But the biggest caveat at is where does opinion begin and actual bookmaking end? For awhile it was EASY spotting the games, with the new software and adjustments and overadjustements every 10 seconds. I saw lines move there 3 or 4 times in a minute. Not all at once, as I couldn't refresh fast enough, but when I went back and looked. But it was the back and forth variety, up 3 cents, back down 2 cents, then back up 3 cents. THOSE are the hard ones to distinguish. Are guys making bets back and forth or it the software FIGHTING to hold a specific number but each bet is overriding some predetermined amount to move on?
Now THAT is theory, and nothing I can prove or disporove, but it makes sense to me. So if indeed those wrinkles are indeed a line being held and they are not big enough to make my alarm go off then you may indeed have a valid piont. But it is nearly impossible to discect evry single game that way, it is humanly impossible, and even when you knew the patterns and they TOLD you the criteris they use, it would still be next to ipossible.
That is why I focus on the most obvious ones. but that can raise questions as well, are they obvious on purpose. So then the whole circular argument starts.
That is why so many gamblers have a hard tiem winning, they worry about this stuff too much. I usually don't I have it in the back of my mind, and that is whereit stays, until threads like this get started.
I am sure we are both right to some degree, because we both win. If we could ever come into the middle ground together and mutate our two philosophies we could probably break them. But thenthey wouldn't be availabe to bet at anymore.
I am also like debating this shit. I know when I start posting stuff that I have info on I get a little heated. But I don't take anything personal on here. Nor do I mean anything personal when I get on a ramble.
But I am sure you have seen these threads a few times yourselves, and it just irks me that people hold Pin to some higher standard. That is one of the reasons why I try to keep track of all the moves. BECAUSE so many guys that I have respect for all said the same thing. But I am not the type of person to follow along withthe crowd or believe someone on a say so or reputation. So that is why I started doing it.
But the biggest caveat at is where does opinion begin and actual bookmaking end? For awhile it was EASY spotting the games, with the new software and adjustments and overadjustements every 10 seconds. I saw lines move there 3 or 4 times in a minute. Not all at once, as I couldn't refresh fast enough, but when I went back and looked. But it was the back and forth variety, up 3 cents, back down 2 cents, then back up 3 cents. THOSE are the hard ones to distinguish. Are guys making bets back and forth or it the software FIGHTING to hold a specific number but each bet is overriding some predetermined amount to move on?
Now THAT is theory, and nothing I can prove or disporove, but it makes sense to me. So if indeed those wrinkles are indeed a line being held and they are not big enough to make my alarm go off then you may indeed have a valid piont. But it is nearly impossible to discect evry single game that way, it is humanly impossible, and even when you knew the patterns and they TOLD you the criteris they use, it would still be next to ipossible.
That is why I focus on the most obvious ones. but that can raise questions as well, are they obvious on purpose. So then the whole circular argument starts.
That is why so many gamblers have a hard tiem winning, they worry about this stuff too much. I usually don't I have it in the back of my mind, and that is whereit stays, until threads like this get started.
I am sure we are both right to some degree, because we both win. If we could ever come into the middle ground together and mutate our two philosophies we could probably break them. But thenthey wouldn't be availabe to bet at anymore.
In my regular life i am a stockbroker who does a lot of option business. In the old days clients would want to beatthe market maker who probably laid off the position 5 minutes after it was put on. Same here Arent we supposed to handicap a game and then fine the best line. If I like Anaheim tonight and pinnicle is 1.35 and some other book is 1.45 arent I going to bet the 1.45 line? I dont care who I win or lose from I just want the best number. I am a small time player who uses 4 books and looks to save a few here or there. I dont care who I beat or who I lose to. Seems as if people put pinncle on a pedestal there the sharpest cant beat them not trying to beat them trying to handicap a game and pick the best line for my action. How difficult is that?
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by bobk:
handicap a game and pick the best line for my action. How difficult is that? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Actually, for most people...very difficult.
Pinnacle is the perfect book for you. I agree.
Funny, I am a commodities broker, and do alot of option business as well.
handicap a game and pick the best line for my action. How difficult is that? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Actually, for most people...very difficult.
Pinnacle is the perfect book for you. I agree.
Funny, I am a commodities broker, and do alot of option business as well.
I really do not care where I get my numbers. Pinny, Wsex, WWTS, Hollywood, Jazz, Carib, Sky/IIS, Grande, Mill, Cascade, MVP, Sportbet, CRIS, or 5 Dimes. It is not even the point, where I get it. Do I sacrifice 1 cent just to not get it at Pinnacle. Of course not. It is not that difficult. I determine I need a position, I look for best price. Or I see a scalp, or middle. I guess Ironlock could try to explain to newbies why Pinnacle is not a good only out place. But I thought thread said Pinny was for suckers. Do I care if Krackman bet once there. Of course not. I bet zero poker bets. So what the hell has that got to do with anything? I may take 20-30 positions at Pinny a week during foots. Most of them are profitable, from Pinny or somewhere else. I do not claim to be smarter than someone else, but do not try to smarten me up on what I do. Will I be smart as Krackman if I only have one position there this month? No, I would be missing opportunity after opportunity to profit. How smart is that? Put a guy on TV, and he thinks he stayed at the Holiday Inn. The last thing I will do is adjust my business because I should be smarter. I have almost every book ever written on sports betting. You know how many say futures and props should be avoided? All of them. You know what, I invest heavily, or do the opposite. I never listen to people who know better, for me. Frog, you can't make money betting. How many times have I heard that one. The US will win the gold. Lakers will win it all. Smarty Jones is a lock for triple crown. I even bet the man, the myth, the legend that Motown would blowout Lakers in game #5, for dinner in the best restaurant in the world. Still have not eaten it yet, but many were saying, the Lakers would win, or keep it close, including legendary SHRINK. One thing good about gambling, you can put your money where your mouth is. Or a dinner. As far as the original point, Pinny is just another out. One of dozens. My figure there is not relevant. My overall figure is. If betting a 100 times a month there makes it more profitable, then there I am...Best Wishes...OF
Froggy calm down you are going to burn up your PC. Want me to change your tag line to: "I had the Pistons and the US to not win the gold"? Not a problem, think of all the typing it will save you in future threads. A little advice, on those rare occasions when you actually make a legible selection - at a betable number - at a real sportsbook, before an event actually begins, then act like you been there before. Win but please chill on the post game bragging, it is seriously uncool, especially 3 months later.
wil.
wil.
Thanks wil, I needed that from you. Been a while since you had to moderate me. It is not bragging, it is posted, facts. Was Argentina at 9-1 3 weeks ago, or this weekend. The point is when you follow the crowd, even the most respected, you are following the crowd. I choose the path least traveled. Does your opinion of me being uncool change anything nope. When you and Pancho were tag teaming me unmercifully, attacking my wife and my ethics, two things that mean everything to me, did it affect me? I rolled on, to my best NBA post season ever. If you are my example of being cool, posting that I have no ethics, when you have no idea who I am, I choose to remain uncool. Many posters have asked me Froggy, why is wil constantly on your ass? Don't know, really don't care. Then we all laugh.
Savant. Currently, I am on a 15-1 week run. That is not a brag, but a few posters know it. I have had one losing month, Feb, after hitting 11 straight weeks preceeding. I was trying to vacation to Costa Rica, never made it and dumped. However, I normally take a break for Summer, and had my most profitable Summer ever, Between, bases, hoops and horses. So out of last 12 months, 2 losing months. Nov 03, Feb 04. That's it. By far, my best August ever. I wish you were closer to me. I do not care if you are Pakistani, went through a windshield or anything. I have too many screens, and not enough reliable bettors. You would make more betting for me, then you do betting for yourself, with no risk. Training the wife to work weekends. I am salivating waiting for football. Best Wishes...OF
Savant. Currently, I am on a 15-1 week run. That is not a brag, but a few posters know it. I have had one losing month, Feb, after hitting 11 straight weeks preceeding. I was trying to vacation to Costa Rica, never made it and dumped. However, I normally take a break for Summer, and had my most profitable Summer ever, Between, bases, hoops and horses. So out of last 12 months, 2 losing months. Nov 03, Feb 04. That's it. By far, my best August ever. I wish you were closer to me. I do not care if you are Pakistani, went through a windshield or anything. I have too many screens, and not enough reliable bettors. You would make more betting for me, then you do betting for yourself, with no risk. Training the wife to work weekends. I am salivating waiting for football. Best Wishes...OF
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Froggy calm down you are going to burn up your PC. Want me to change your tag line to: "I had the Pistons and the US to not win the gold"? Not a problem, think of all the typing it will save you in future threads. A little advice, on those rare occasions when you actually make a legible selection - at a betable number - at a real sportsbook, before an event actually begins, then act like you been there before. Win but please chill on the post game bragging, it is seriously uncool, especially 3 months later.
wil. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Froggy calm down you are going to burn up your PC. Want me to change your tag line to: "I had the Pistons and the US to not win the gold"? Not a problem, think of all the typing it will save you in future threads. A little advice, on those rare occasions when you actually make a legible selection - at a betable number - at a real sportsbook, before an event actually begins, then act like you been there before. Win but please chill on the post game bragging, it is seriously uncool, especially 3 months later.
wil. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
