Thanks for that link SBS. I have seen it and it proves what I was saying about accuracy shifting from year to year. I'm wondering though if there isn't some consistency with each publication? If their accuracy in some conferences is usually better than others, year in and year out. I might spend a little time on that when I have it. You know how boring summers can be.
I really respect the work that he puts into his magazine. It is the only one that I buy every year.
I can see why his question marks on Oregon have swayed his opinion. I just happen to think the ducks and beavers deserve more benefit of the doubt given how well each team has reloaded in years past.
I can see why his question marks on Oregon have swayed his opinion. I just happen to think the ducks and beavers deserve more benefit of the doubt given how well each team has reloaded in years past.
Yeah I usually buy Steele, Athlon and Blue Ribbon. They are all different. Steele is chuck full of a zillion tidbits nobody could possibly keep all in his head. Comes in handy as a reference for all sorts of angles.
That was a valid point about the "reload" angle. Who can and who can't reload. Or who does and who doesn't. It's one thing to have good info on recruits and depth charts, spring workouts etc. But its a different story when it comes down to how well a team (or coaching staff) handles changes. I am certain that it is a major major factor that can easily fly under the radar and bite you in the ass at some point if you're not careful.
No one has better WR's in the Big Ten than Illinois (Benn, Cumberland, Fayson). That might be the best set in the country. Decker, Carpenter (the JuCo), and Green is above-average, but I wouldn't trade Illinois' players for them.
Weber is good, but he isn't going to win games for you, just not lose them. More of a game-manager than a play-maker. Let's see what exactly they do with MarQueis Gray.
Their DL is going to miss WVDS (Willie Van DeSteeg) who was their best player. Brown and Small are back, but they lack pass rushers. Their OL is replacing every starter from last year's squad. Not because they're graduating, just because they didn't play well.
This is the type of team that a lot of people are going to think will be good, but won't. They fell apart at the end of last season losing their last 5 and didn't really beat anyone of note. They will be good within the next two years, but they need to weed out Mason's players first.
Ducks
Like you, the only preseason magazine I use is Steele's. I went up to Borders last saturday and looked thru some others and they don't have many stats and I am not interested in preseason top 25's.
What I do like about Steele is that he crams so much into such a confining space. I need to use my most powerful $12 reading glasses to read some of the small print. You just turn to the team (each team has two side by side pages) and you have their last 5 yrs results with lines and scores, and his breakdowns by position, a projected starting lineup, and and his forecast.
The one thing that I pay most attention to though is the part he dedicates to coaches. Very important stuff. You can see how long the current combinations have been together, check for changes in asst coaches, all of which have a direct bearing on how fast a team may or may not "come out of the shoot" early in the season. I highly recommend that if you read no other part to read that. What I do is then go to the official athletic site of each school that has had changes and read the profiles on each and every coach. That is one reason I caught so much flack on my Arizona take was that I was sold on the staff and thought the system was ready to grow. My own opinion but based on a lot of research.
Bottom line, I use a couple of power ratings on my spread sheet that are directly taken from Steele. The most important thing is to be able to make the adjustments yourself, week by week, so that the projections become current and more relevant. The guy missed on 10 of his top 25 picks last year. So you have to pay more attention to his stats and less attention to his opinions. If you do not like to do research or deal with numbers in depth I will say this, his numbers are valid. You can double check some of them on the NCAA site which will compile them weekly during the season. I strongly suggest at least breezing through that NCAA site every week and I guarantee you something will pop out at you that had not realized before.
All in all Steele's publication is analytical, statistically accurate, and full of information that us common folk don't have access to. That's all I need.
Like you, the only preseason magazine I use is Steele's. I went up to Borders last saturday and looked thru some others and they don't have many stats and I am not interested in preseason top 25's.
What I do like about Steele is that he crams so much into such a confining space. I need to use my most powerful $12 reading glasses to read some of the small print. You just turn to the team (each team has two side by side pages) and you have their last 5 yrs results with lines and scores, and his breakdowns by position, a projected starting lineup, and and his forecast.
The one thing that I pay most attention to though is the part he dedicates to coaches. Very important stuff. You can see how long the current combinations have been together, check for changes in asst coaches, all of which have a direct bearing on how fast a team may or may not "come out of the shoot" early in the season. I highly recommend that if you read no other part to read that. What I do is then go to the official athletic site of each school that has had changes and read the profiles on each and every coach. That is one reason I caught so much flack on my Arizona take was that I was sold on the staff and thought the system was ready to grow. My own opinion but based on a lot of research.
Bottom line, I use a couple of power ratings on my spread sheet that are directly taken from Steele. The most important thing is to be able to make the adjustments yourself, week by week, so that the projections become current and more relevant. The guy missed on 10 of his top 25 picks last year. So you have to pay more attention to his stats and less attention to his opinions. If you do not like to do research or deal with numbers in depth I will say this, his numbers are valid. You can double check some of them on the NCAA site which will compile them weekly during the season. I strongly suggest at least breezing through that NCAA site every week and I guarantee you something will pop out at you that had not realized before.
All in all Steele's publication is analytical, statistically accurate, and full of information that us common folk don't have access to. That's all I need.
Your my boy Blue!!!
Just to piggy back on this, Illinois has 4 more guys in AJ Jenkins, Chris Duvalt, Fred Sykes and Cordell Scott that all caught plenty of balls last year as underclassmen. Not to mention they bring in freshman Terry Hawthorne. He's young and on a deep list but he could be a dangerous player as a freshman. He has drawn a lot of Jeremy Maclin comparisons because of his return skills and since he's out of Missouri.
As far as TE they have Michael Hoomanawanui who is one of the best in the country (top 20 not top 10) and Soph. Hubie Graham (who was one of the best TE's in the country in the 2008 recruiting class). He saw the field quite a few times last year and caught some nice passes.
The million dollar question is: can Juice Williams improve his accuracy and get them the ball? He has the strongest arm in the Big 10 and can go vertical just not the sharpest. Any average QB could make a living on just bubble screens and short passes with these guys but if Juice Williams continues to improve his passing skills there's no telling what kind of points they can put up. I will have updates once camp starts.
As far as the Gophers, I had no idea about their O-line starters moving back on the depth chart. Not a good sign and keep the updates coming.
Just to piggy back on this, Illinois has 4 more guys in AJ Jenkins, Chris Duvalt, Fred Sykes and Cordell Scott that all caught plenty of balls last year as underclassmen. Not to mention they bring in freshman Terry Hawthorne. He's young and on a deep list but he could be a dangerous player as a freshman. He has drawn a lot of Jeremy Maclin comparisons because of his return skills and since he's out of Missouri.
As far as TE they have Michael Hoomanawanui who is one of the best in the country (top 20 not top 10) and Soph. Hubie Graham (who was one of the best TE's in the country in the 2008 recruiting class). He saw the field quite a few times last year and caught some nice passes.
The million dollar question is: can Juice Williams improve his accuracy and get them the ball? He has the strongest arm in the Big 10 and can go vertical just not the sharpest. Any average QB could make a living on just bubble screens and short passes with these guys but if Juice Williams continues to improve his passing skills there's no telling what kind of points they can put up. I will have updates once camp starts.
As far as the Gophers, I had no idea about their O-line starters moving back on the depth chart. Not a good sign and keep the updates coming.
Ducks: It is all about putting together a sytem to compile facts and figures. Once Steele developed a system to do that part, the most time consuming part, he could pass those skills along to some hired hands. I do think he is still involved he just has more free time to look at the stuff instead of spending the time accumulating it. Actually, they begin accumulating the numbers from week one on and by mid January they have compiled everything they need. Steele does not have to be as hands on as he once was but he is involved, just not as active. Personally all I care about are the stats so as long as they keep up the good work I am a happy camper. Now he is like the owner/publisher and he just sits back and manages. Look at the logistics. They work their ass off from August to January. They work on their magazine from January to May. And they are pretty laid back in June and July. Meanwhile, "whoever" is on this stuff 24/7/365. How many others are?
Steele, Schmooz, whoever, good enough for me.
