Just having a full season and full off-season to get familiar with the new offense Rodriguez brought with him should help. Plus he's had that time to find which players are the best fit for how he wants to use them.
There won't be any great leap in overall team talent, but I'm not certain that was the issue last season. I expect incremental improvement this year, then the full story on Rodriguez at Michigan to be told in the next couple of seasons, as his own recruits are running his own offense.
Plus they get four gimme games and most of their iffy games at home.
9/05 Western Michigan
9/12 Notre Dame
9/19 Eastern Michigan
9/26 Indiana
10/03 @ Michigan State
10/10 @ Iowa
10/17 Delaware State
10/24 Penn State
10/31 @ Illinois
11/07 Purdue
11/14 @ Wisconsin
11/21 Ohio State
9/05 Western Michigan
9/12 Notre Dame
9/19 Eastern Michigan
9/26 Indiana
10/03 @ Michigan State
10/10 @ Iowa
10/17 Delaware State
10/24 Penn State
10/31 @ Illinois
11/07 Purdue
11/14 @ Wisconsin
11/21 Ohio State
Russ, just compare how we here have been discussing things from different points of view yet we still give others credit for providing meaningful opinions... then reading and comparing how you handle it when there's an argument or counterpoint against your way of thinking. It is that respect and a realistic view of who we ourselves are and the way each of us is different that makes this place as good as it is. I don't see pompous attitudes anywhere else in here. I'll elaborate. It is you that goes into endless detail explaining how you do what you do and why. Who cares? Everyone has their own reasons why they do it their own way anyway and you will not win over any converts if that's your goal.
Nobody gets defensive unless you project yourself into their words and misinterpret what they've said with a spin that amounts to putting words into other people's mouths, which you do constantly. Or at least shift the emphasis away from what they said without even acknowledging their point or them in the least way, at best superficially if you even bother which is rare enough in itself.
That is the big difference. I can count people who have been difficult in some of my discussions on the fingers on one hand and have leftovers. You, CP and whormoan. You do not want to be a part of that crowd because it is a very small and undistinguished group of malcontents. You've been called out on it numerous times. You also project onto others what people have seen in you -- "know it all" -- or whatever particular problem they refer to.
It is you who PROJECTS those things about yourself onto others, myself included. Just because something I say reminds you of yourself doesn't mean I am like you. I am far from it. (My style is 25% about stats and 75% about people.) It just looks that way to your too quick to over-react defensive mind. And from every post of yours that I have read thus far, that is the impression you give in a nutshell. Too quick to judge.
Nobody will ever acquire a taste for disrespectful smack talk. Don't kid yourself. Nobody will ever acquire a taste for shit. There are dozens and dozens of posters here that you do not know and your projections of what they are saying (in their ignorance) make no sense to the rest of us that know them better and for a lot longer than you have known any of them.
Many in here have EARNED respect from being here a long time and establishing themselves as good people to have discussions with. YOU have not done that and there is no way you can short-circuit that process no matter what you do unless you can pull a Randizzle which has happened but once in 10 years. And just FYI, this is the #1 board on the net in both traffic and reputation. If you are even close to being a Randizzle, the proof of that is in the pudding, nowhere else, not in any argument you can make.
This shoot from the hip, jumping to conclusions way of thinking is what I have a lot of problems with in accepting your line of thinking. Again and again you do that and you become very defensive when someone disagrees and tells you why, and points out valid arguments or exceptions.
Then if that's not enough, you make a crusade about it such as the Scott video that you STILL refuse to accept as an overdone PR piece with hardly a mistake to be seen (though I did catch several things he does, some of which could prove to be deadly.)
People think differently than you do. Often they catch important details that lead to different conclusions than those you have made. But you routinely waste their valid points and then go on to defend and further enhance your own position and image. How can you defend yourself by saying you are doing what you do for them when every indication proves that you are doing it to bring attention to your "superior" way of handicapping? Can't you at least give anyone here credit for having MORE information to put on the table than what you've drawn your conclusions from?
It is you that turns it into a pissing match almost every time. If anyone dares (such as me) to call you on it again and again on occasion refusing to let it go, you spin it into it being their fault for getting into pissing matches in the first place, but who is the common denominator with many who "piss" in disagreement?
You can't just dismiss a difference of opinion as you getting the early edge where they miss the boat. How paper thin! Getting the early edge comes naturally from learning the layout of the upcoming season with any handicapping method. Not because it's the advantage of your style over the next person. That is what BigdaddyQH meant by pompous a**.
So watch it when you start another flaming war. Your attitude and reputation here as "one of the guys" is at stake and that's more important than any spread sheet you belabor for "everyone's benefit" because "you have everyone's best interests at heart." Your constant arguments and reactions tell a far different story.
And one thing more. You have alluded to the fact that you already use Blue Ribbon as one of your sources. I have suspicions that you don't really know much if anything about them but you would say so as not to hint at any lack of knowledge. So prove me wrong, would you please tell me the name of the advertisers on the inside front cover and on the rear cover of last year's edition? I'm only asking you this to help establish some credibility from the business end of handicapping. Nothing personal. It will help your case.
If you reply to any of this, don't forget to do that please.
*******************************************
BigDaddy, that was the first reasonable assessment I've heard about why Illinois got into the BCS Rose Bowl which looked more like a USC scrimmage in prime time. I cannot recall another 3-loss team ever getting the nod. The fans got gipped.
Conan
I have never alluded or inferred or anything about Blue Ribbon I know it only as a beer. Once again you throw something out there with no substantiation. Let me make it perfectly clear, I have never seen a copy of Blue Ribbon and probably never will. I don't need any lectures from you of all people especially when once again you throw something out there without knowing what you are talking about. I do not need your approval much less desire it. You do things your way and I will do things my way. I will just stay off of your threads and I would prefer you do the same with mine. Is that plain enough? You try to put me in the same category as CP but I think most everyone knows better than that, except maybe you. If someone disagrees with you then you take offense and then look out. I really don't have any ill feelings toward you, I have never seen you as any kind of a threat, and it is apparent that this forum is very important to you. It would appear that somebody reads what I post on my thread and that is the first thread I have every done on any forum of any kind. So you do it your way and I'll do it my way. GL next season.
I have never alluded or inferred or anything about Blue Ribbon I know it only as a beer. Once again you throw something out there with no substantiation. Let me make it perfectly clear, I have never seen a copy of Blue Ribbon and probably never will. I don't need any lectures from you of all people especially when once again you throw something out there without knowing what you are talking about. I do not need your approval much less desire it. You do things your way and I will do things my way. I will just stay off of your threads and I would prefer you do the same with mine. Is that plain enough? You try to put me in the same category as CP but I think most everyone knows better than that, except maybe you. If someone disagrees with you then you take offense and then look out. I really don't have any ill feelings toward you, I have never seen you as any kind of a threat, and it is apparent that this forum is very important to you. It would appear that somebody reads what I post on my thread and that is the first thread I have every done on any forum of any kind. So you do it your way and I'll do it my way. GL next season.
FYI, that's Phil Steele's most improved teams, not mine.
Besides that, Tate Forcier enrolled early and looked like our best offensive player in the spring game. They have 5 easy W's on the schedule (2 MAC teams, Delaware State, Indiana, and Purdue - all at home) but the road schedule looks tough to take 2. We will know just how good this team is after 5 games. If they can beat ND and/or MSU like a normal Michigan team should, they'll make an NYD bowl game.
I think Athlon summed it up well in their "opposing coaches size up Michigan"...
"Everything is based on their quarterback. If they don't find a quarterback, the could be in some trouble ... If they don't do well, it's going to be a quick end. They shouldn't be 3-9 at Michigan. People there aren't going to give them time. This is Michigan. This isn't rebuilding. They were good before he got there."
We could suck again, or we could be pretty good. The problem is that no one is scared of Michigan anymore. The only player that "strikes the fear of god" into opponents is Brandon Graham. Every other position on this team is as good or as bad as any other Big Ten team. The talent level that everyone is used to from a normal Michigan team is just not there.
i've been saying this for over a year:
ILLINOIS WAS NOT EVEN RANKED WHEN THEY BEAT OHIO ST!!!
huge upset over #1 team in country, then a win at home against a non-bowl northwestern team the following week and then they magically become a BCS rose bowl team..??!!
that's partially why i felt usc and uga were so over-rated coming into last season...they both finished strong but did not deserve #1 rankings, but national media was focusing on usc dismantling illini and georgia crushing an underserving hawaii team in the sugar bowl along with the strong finish to their seasons...of the 10 teams that played in the bcs that year, illini and hawaii were easily the two worst, and there were plenty of better teams not even in bcs bowls that were much better
Trent...Good points. And the more I look at them the more I'm beginning to agree with you about Va Tech. Because of their BCS win they are going to be overhyped and overated coming into this season. I can pretty much feel it in my bones with this team. First off, for a BCS team they were far from a dominant team last season. I think you pointed this out before. Their biggest win in the ACC came by just 11 points over 4-8 Duke. And that was at home. The score/average margin of victory for VT in conference was just 19-17. They then somehow won the ACC pretty much by default and then went on to play a BCS game against Cincy. Another team that didn't exactly dominate the weak Big East. Their biggest margin of victory was over Syracuse at home by 20. The rest of the conference games were much closer. In fact their average score/margin of victory was just 23-19. Despite having a great coach, I believe Cincy is a team that probably won't even finish in the top 4 in conference this year. They lose too much on defense, which was the only thing that saved them last year since they only averaged scoring 23 a game.. As for VT, I think this team is going to be finding itself depending way too much on the playmaking of Tyrod Taylor. And we know what usually happens when a BCS team depends way too much on one man. Besides that, I just think there are too many very good coaches in that conference this year that are just starting to hit their stride.. Especially the Coastal Division. I think either Ga Tech or North Carolina wins that division. I have a slight lean to North Carolina.
I just can't help but think that Michigan has gotten so much attention that the publics confidence in Rodriguez may inflate the lines a little, maybe just enough to make it a better proposition to be against them until the line catches up with them or until they prove themselves in a positive manner. The game with Notre Dame on Sept. 12 will probably tell the tale.
It has been my experiences with the ATS stats that if a team goes 2-10 ATS the season before, they very seldom make a leap to more than 6 wins ATS the next year if they didn't win more than 3 games the year before.. Michigan went 3-9 SU last season. If they had won more games then with their possible improvement this year I would say it's possible to maybe get to 7 or 8 wins ATS. But I really don't expect more than 6 SU wins from them this year. Maybe 7 if things go right for them. But with the hype that a big school like Michigan gets, it will be hard with the possible overinflated lines for them to get over 6 ATS wins. There was only one team last season that went from less than 3 wins ATS to more than 8 wins ATS. And that was BAMA who went from 2-8-1 ATS to 9-3 ATS. But they also went from being a respectable 6-6 in 2007 to 12-0 in the regular season 2008. Big difference. Nobody expects Michigan to make that kind of leap. Rodriguez don't have the players in place yet to do it. So I would say 6-6 ATS would be the most optimistic betting odds I would give them.
i've already stated my feelings on 2008 va tech and why i don't feel 2009 vt will live up to their hype...but just ask yourself where vt would be ranked pre-season if they had played any team other than cincy in their bcs game...if they got smoked by penn st or beaten by ohio st or crushed by texas would they be pre-season top 5 like i've been seeing?
from espn.com - Re: Cincinnati defense
Spring answers
<TABLE align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=200 bgColor=#c0c0c0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=5 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff colSpan=5>2009 Schedule</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f4f4f4>Sept. 7 at Rutgers
Sept. 12 Southeast Missouri State
Sept. 19 at Oregon State
Sept. 26 Fresno State
Oct. 3 at Miami (Ohio)
Oct. 10 BYE
Oct. 15 at South Florida
Oct. 24 Louisville
Oct. 31 at Syracuse
Nov. 7 Connecticut
Nov. 13 West Virginia
Nov. 20 BYE
Nov. 27 Illinois
Dec. 5 at Pittsburgh </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Diaco does it: New defensive coordinator Bob Diaco was hired shortly before spring practice began and was tasked with changing the Bearcats to a 3-4 base -- while replacing 10 starters. It seemed like a yeoman's task, but head coach Brian Kelly was pleased with how Diaco got the defense to respond throughout the spring. Moving receiver Marcus Barnett to cornerback solidified the secondary, and Derek Wolfe emerged as a force at nose tackle. The defense could be better than a lot of people think.
Spring answers
<TABLE align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=200 bgColor=#c0c0c0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=5 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff colSpan=5>2009 Schedule</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#f4f4f4>Sept. 7 at Rutgers
Sept. 12 Southeast Missouri State
Sept. 19 at Oregon State
Sept. 26 Fresno State
Oct. 3 at Miami (Ohio)
Oct. 10 BYE
Oct. 15 at South Florida
Oct. 24 Louisville
Oct. 31 at Syracuse
Nov. 7 Connecticut
Nov. 13 West Virginia
Nov. 20 BYE
Nov. 27 Illinois
Dec. 5 at Pittsburgh </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Diaco does it: New defensive coordinator Bob Diaco was hired shortly before spring practice began and was tasked with changing the Bearcats to a 3-4 base -- while replacing 10 starters. It seemed like a yeoman's task, but head coach Brian Kelly was pleased with how Diaco got the defense to respond throughout the spring. Moving receiver Marcus Barnett to cornerback solidified the secondary, and Derek Wolfe emerged as a force at nose tackle. The defense could be better than a lot of people think.
