Phil Steele's Surprise Teams

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The Michigan fans will have no problem ponying up $65-70 to see Delaware St. RR can slide his resignation letter under the president's door if he loses that game. @):)
 

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Trent...Good points. And the more I look at them the more I'm beginning to agree with you about Va Tech. Because of their BCS win they are going to be overhyped and overated coming into this season. I can pretty much feel it in my bones with this team. First off, for a BCS team they were far from a dominant team last season. I think you pointed this out before. Their biggest win in the ACC came by just 11 points over 4-8 Duke. And that was at home. The score/average margin of victory for VT in conference was just 19-17. They then somehow won the ACC pretty much by default and then went on to play a BCS game against Cincy. Another team that didn't exactly dominate the weak Big East. Their biggest margin of victory was over Syracuse at home by 20. The rest of the conference games were much closer. In fact their average score/margin of victory was just 23-19. Despite having a great coach, I believe Cincy is a team that probably won't even finish in the top 4 in conference this year. They lose too much on defense, which was the only thing that saved them last year since they only averaged scoring 23 a game.. As for VT, I think this team is going to be finding itself depending way too much on the playmaking of Tyrod Taylor. And we know what usually happens when a BCS team depends way too much on one man. Besides that, I just think there are too many very good coaches in that conference this year that are just starting to hit their stride.. Especially the Coastal Division. I think either Ga Tech or North Carolina wins that division. I have a slight lean to North Carolina.


I just got back from being on a 10 day vacation, GS, at Lake Tenkiller. I had a great time with the family and caught tons of fish.

Could Georgia Tech be a Cinderella team in the ACC again this year? I've seen one internet publication where they are catching a 2nd place in conference bid, but the rest want to knock them down to middle of the road in the conference. Did anyone follow Paul Johnson at Navy? This guy would lose tons of talent every year with a team that wasn't able to afford talent losses and all he did was come back and produce great seasons! Let's face it, this guy is brilliant!

Offensively, G Tech not only doesn't lose much, they are in the second year of learning the triple option. Johnson has already gone on record of stating that he felt like his team only touched on understanding the triple option in 2008. What will they do with a year's understanding in 2009? Yes, they lost some key defensive performers on the d-line, but G Tech has always been known for their recruiting of defensive players and I think they will be good again this season. I'll have to check out their depth there whenever I get Steele's magazine in about a week.

Johnson has a way of winning and teams have a very hard time of fdefending his offense. You HAVE to put G Tech up there in the higher echelon of the ACC in my opinion.
 

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I just got back from being on a 10 day vacation, GS, at Lake Tenkiller. I had a great time with the family and caught tons of fish.

Could Georgia Tech be a Cinderella team in the ACC again this year? I've seen one internet publication where they are catching a 2nd place in conference bid, but the rest want to knock them down to middle of the road in the conference. Did anyone follow Paul Johnson at Navy? This guy would lose tons of talent every year with a team that wasn't able to afford talent losses and all he did was come back and produce great seasons! Let's face it, this guy is brilliant!

Offensively, G Tech not only doesn't lose much, they are in the second year of learning the triple option. Johnson has already gone on record of stating that he felt like his team only touched on understanding the triple option in 2008. What will they do with a year's understanding in 2009? Yes, they lost some key defensive performers on the d-line, but G Tech has always been known for their recruiting of defensive players and I think they will be good again this season. I'll have to check out their depth there whenever I get Steele's magazine in about a week.

Johnson has a way of winning and teams have a very hard time of fdefending his offense. You HAVE to put G Tech up there in the higher echelon of the ACC in my opinion.
BS...I haven't got a chance to really look at the ACC in depth. But I can tell you that if you gave me the choice of Butch Davis and Johnson, I would have a very hard time picking between the two. They are both great coaches. As far as North Carolina goes, they'll have the kind of team this year that I like. They have 9 returning starters on a defense that was consistently good last season from the beginning to the end. So you know they will be extra tough this year. Plus they get all of their RB's back on offense along with a QB enterning his third year as starter. It's true they have to replace their OL and WR's, but I've been reading that the players coming in taking their place are almost all uperclassmen. And with this roster I think they will have plenty of good leadership on this team. Anyway, I'm sure you know by now that I like teams that run the ball well and play great defense. And I think NC will fit the bill this season. Just keep in mind that Davis took over a 3-9 team. And is in his third year.. Johnson took over a 7-6 team. Big difference. Davis has taken his team from 3-9 to 4-8 to 8-4. You give a coach like this 14 starters returning on his team and you know they are probably just going to get better before they get worse. Plus Davis is the only coach in that conference besides the washed up Bowden to win a BCS Championship. So he KNOWS how and what it takes to get the job done. Plus he's an Oklahoma boy. What more can you ask for? The only reason that I think it will be very close between GT and NC is NC has to play both GT and VT on the road. So if they win that division they'll have to earn it.
 

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I just got back from being on a 10 day vacation, GS, at Lake Tenkiller. I had a great time with the family and caught tons of fish.
By the way, I love Lake Tenkiller. It's considered to be the clearest lake in Oklahoma. I learned to scuba dive there. And that's where I got ceritfied. We used to dive along the damn wall there and the black bass would swim right up to me like I wasn't even there. I always had to wear a wetsuit when I dived that lake because when you go down under 20 feet you hit a thermal window and the water turns iced cold. But as clear and blue as the lake looks from the surface, it's still pretty murky down below and you can't see more than 6 feet in front of you. BS.. While your in that part of the country sometime you ought to take a float trip down the Illinois River. It's very scenic and the kids would love it.
 

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By the way, I love Lake Tenkiller. It's considered to be the clearest lake in Oklahoma. I learned to scuba dive there. And that's where I got ceritfied. We used to dive along the damn wall there and the black bass would swim right up to me like I wasn't even there. I always had to wear a wetsuit when I dived that lake because when you go down under 20 feet you hit a thermal window and the water turns iced cold. But as clear and blue as the lake looks from the surface, it's still pretty murky down below and you can't see more than 6 feet in front of you. BS.. While your in that part of the country sometime you ought to take a float trip down the Illinois River. It's very scenic and the kids would love it.

Wasn't that lake called Lake Fourkiller before Sonny Sixkiller jumped in?
 

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There are no gimme's on the schedule when you lose to a bad Toledo team.

I don't know ... I mean, Eastern Michigan is REALLY bad. They've never beat a Big-6 conference opponent and have only won 3 OOC games vs. 1-A opponents in the past 20+ years.

1987 - San Jose State (California Bowl)
1995 - vs. UNLV
2005 - vs. LA-Lafayette

Which means they're due! :party:
 

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Wasn't that lake called Lake Fourkiller before Sonny Sixkiller jumped in?
Ha ha Conan...When I was a kid and took my first trip to the lake my brother told me that Tenkiller got it's name because 10 men were killed during it's construction. He was good at telling me those little fibs. But that's one i believed for about 20 years until I found out it was named after a prominent Cherokee family here in Oklahoma. Of course, any indian that had a name of Tenkiller didn't get that name for nothin'. Cherokees either name their kids after the first thing they see when they are born. Or they get their name from some brave feat they accomplised in their lifetime. In this case the senior Tenkiller had 10 notches on his bow. I wonder who he killed to get it? Okay, maybe in a roundabout way Tenkiller WAS named after ten men who were killed. Just not in the construction.
 

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By the way, I love Lake Tenkiller. It's considered to be the clearest lake in Oklahoma. I learned to scuba dive there. And that's where I got ceritfied. We used to dive along the damn wall there and the black bass would swim right up to me like I wasn't even there. I always had to wear a wetsuit when I dived that lake because when you go down under 20 feet you hit a thermal window and the water turns iced cold. But as clear and blue as the lake looks from the surface, it's still pretty murky down below and you can't see more than 6 feet in front of you. BS.. While your in that part of the country sometime you ought to take a float trip down the Illinois River. It's very scenic and the kids would love it.


I took one with the wife the first year we were married. I will never do it again because it nearly caused a divorce. Then again, if I were to put her in another canoe . . . .

My family has been going to Lake Tenkiller every year for 30+ years now. Not only do I take my wife and kids, but mom and dad go, too, and we share a cabin with them. Also, my two brothers and their family go, my uncle and aunt and their two children's family go, and another aunt and uncle go. It's a lot like a week and a half family reunion.
 

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Man I love following college football.

I picked up my Steele preseason mag today.

He has Mississippi number 6 in the country and Notre Dame number 7.

What do you Sooner boys think about that? A little high?
 

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Man I love following college football.

I picked up my Steele preseason mag today.

He has Mississippi number 6 in the country and Notre Dame number 7.

What do you Sooner boys think about that? A little high?


I don't think it is too high for right now, Oakas. Notre Dame has a very workable schedule and Mississippi is a good football team.
 

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Man I love following college football.

I picked up my Steele preseason mag today.

He has Mississippi number 6 in the country and Notre Dame number 7.

What do you Sooner boys think about that? A little high?

already have amiss 60-1 and ND 40-1 so you know how i feel...
 

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picked up phil steele today as well

what we have in common:

while most have VT #5-#8, he has them Power Rankings #13, i have them around #20
he also has UM ahead of FSU which most dont (Clemson also ahead of FSU like me)
Penn St ahead of Oh St (how could you not..?? but most everyone has it reversed)
Cal ahead of Oregon
Iowa #3 in B10
Maryland near bottom of ACC
Tennessee ahead of S Car

Things we differ:

NC ST #6 ACC
Minnesota behing Purdue and Wisky (and Louisville..??!!)
Arizona ahead of Oregon and OSU (and NC ST)
Pittsburgh too high (about 30 spots)
 

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picked up phil steele today as well

what we have in common:

while most have VT #5-#8, he has them Power Rankings #13, i have them around #20
he also has UM ahead of FSU which most dont (Clemson also ahead of FSU like me)
Penn St ahead of Oh St (how could you not..?? but most everyone has it reversed)
Cal ahead of Oregon
Iowa #3 in B10
Maryland near bottom of ACC
Tennessee ahead of S Car

Things we differ:

NC ST #6 ACC
Minnesota behing Purdue and Wisky (and Louisville..??!!)
Arizona ahead of Oregon and OSU (and NC ST)
Pittsburgh too high (about 30 spots)

The Hawkeyes have a fairly tough schedule this year (28 nationally)
They have to go to Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin. They also have to play the Cyclones in Ames which always is a tough game.

The Hawkeyes 3rd in the Big 10 is going to be real tough to do in my opinion.
 

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i'm talking about Power Rankings

has absolutely NOTHING to do w/ schedules, solely talent
his top 40 in front of mag is rankings, based on schedules and how he feels teams will do...Power Rankings is just who he thinks is better, and that's what i'm referring to

on a neutral field, no point spread, who do you think is the better team?
that's what i'm talking about in my post
 

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picked up phil steele today as well

what we have in common:

while most have VT #5-#8, he has them Power Rankings #13, i have them around #20
he also has UM ahead of FSU which most dont (Clemson also ahead of FSU like me)
Penn St ahead of Oh St (how could you not..?? but most everyone has it reversed)
Cal ahead of Oregon
Iowa #3 in B10
Maryland near bottom of ACC
Tennessee ahead of S Car

Things we differ:

NC ST #6 ACC
Minnesota behing Purdue and Wisky (and Louisville..??!!)
Arizona ahead of Oregon and OSU (and NC ST)
Pittsburgh too high (about 30 spots)


Trent: One of the things that caught my attention is that the bottom 30 or so teams on Steele's Power Poll 120 are mostly reserved for Sunbelt, Mac, and the bottom dwellers from the CUSA, Mountain, and the WAC.
Not good company to keep in terms of ratings. There at #115 is Washington State, and near the bottom are Indiana, Syracuse and Washington (who everyone seems to think is going to make strides this year) moves up only to the #75 spot. Closely behind are Maryland, Mississipi St, Iowa State and Duke. I also notice Buffalo at #101 and I have seen people on here write postive things about them. I agree that the Power Poll top 120 is the one to concentrate on and you may garner as much from looking at the tail end of that chart as you can from the top side of the chart.
 

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Trent: One of the things that caught my attention is that the bottom 30 or so teams on Steele's Power Poll 120 are mostly reserved for Sunbelt, Mac, and the bottom dwellers from the CUSA, Mountain, and the WAC.
Not good company to keep in terms of ratings. There at #115 is Washington State, and near the bottom are Indiana, Syracuse and Washington (who everyone seems to think is going to make strides this year) moves up only to the #75 spot. Closely behind are Maryland, Mississipi St, Iowa State and Duke. I also notice Buffalo at #101 and I have seen people on here write postive things about them. I agree that the Power Poll top 120 is the one to concentrate on and you may garner as much from looking at the tail end of that chart as you can from the top side of the chart.

i think steele's mag has to be used within context...there are a lot of things, like his section on close losses/wins, that could be a waste of time and actually misleading if not put in context

2 yrs ago PS had FSU #7 in PR and #8 in his top 40
he also had ND #34 in PR and #38 in his top 40
the only season win plays i made that yr were FSU u9.5 and ND u7.5
obviously i disagreed w/ his analysis and didn't let him deter my thought process
both plays were won in october and were never in doubt as FSU lost their opener and finished 7-5 while ND started 0-5 (already won my wager) and finished 3-9

for a team like indiana or wash st, who most feel are going to be bad, having them ranked at the bottom should come as no surprise...but for a team like maryland, who i've seen someone on here touting as a winning team this yr and who i think will struggle mightily, seeing them listed by steele near the bottom as well justifies my feelings...obviously, we both see the same flaws in the terps that others don't
 

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Just caught this. 10 points?



PRPs prove to be pivotal in the big picture

8:30 AM Thu, Jun 04, 2009 | Permalink
Tom Scott

Thursday, June 4, 2009.
This week marks the beginning of a key time in Boise State's 2009 football season. Summer conditioning starts, along with player-run practices (PRPs). Coach Chris Petersen says this is when the Broncos glue themselves together. "Even if the NCAA said it was okay for coaches to work with the team in the summer, I still think we wouldn't," says Petersen. It's a crucial time for chemistry and leadership. And it has become the norm during the new century to see 100 percent of the BSU squad stay in Boise during the summer for the workouts. Already named captains for the 2009 season, seniors Kyle Wilson and Richie Brockel are set up perfectly as ringleaders for the offense and defense, respectively.
As a matter of fact, Wilson and Brockel are already underway with the community service project started last summer by Bush Hamdan. The duo is working on the second annual Bronco Football Charity Softball Game for First Tee of Idaho, the organization that introduces golf to kids who may not otherwise ever have a chance to play. The offense-versus-defense contest is set for 6:30pm on Friday, July 10.




Phil Steele is most comfortable when he's out on a limb. Of course, Steele doesn't see it as being out on a limb. The publisher of "Phil Steele's College Football Preview" just thinks he's right. And he is more often than most of his peers. So it was interesting yesterday during his interview on Idaho SportsTalk when he said he gives Boise State's home field advantage a rating of 6, the highest on his scale (Virginia Tech is the only other team he has at that level). And it was interesting when he analyzed Oregon and tabbed the Ducks as a "rebuilding team." Bottom line on the game on the blue turf September 3: Steele favors the Broncos by 10 points.
 

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Gs

I think I have finally come to the conclusion about Steele's distinction between surprise teams and most improved teams, maybe you already knew this. The surprise teams are teams that are actually teams who have an outside chance to make a run for the national championship. In his analysis of Cal on p136 he says "Cal makes my list of Surprise Teams (pg 20) as I feel they are a Darkhorse National Title Contender." So that may be the distinction between surprise and most improved.
 

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Just caught this. 10 points?



PRPs prove to be pivotal in the big picture

8:30 AM Thu, Jun 04, 2009 | Permalink
Tom Scott

Thursday, June 4, 2009.
This week marks the beginning of a key time in Boise State's 2009 football season. Summer conditioning starts, along with player-run practices (PRPs). Coach Chris Petersen says this is when the Broncos glue themselves together. "Even if the NCAA said it was okay for coaches to work with the team in the summer, I still think we wouldn't," says Petersen. It's a crucial time for chemistry and leadership. And it has become the norm during the new century to see 100 percent of the BSU squad stay in Boise during the summer for the workouts. Already named captains for the 2009 season, seniors Kyle Wilson and Richie Brockel are set up perfectly as ringleaders for the offense and defense, respectively.
As a matter of fact, Wilson and Brockel are already underway with the community service project started last summer by Bush Hamdan. The duo is working on the second annual Bronco Football Charity Softball Game for First Tee of Idaho, the organization that introduces golf to kids who may not otherwise ever have a chance to play. The offense-versus-defense contest is set for 6:30pm on Friday, July 10.




Phil Steele is most comfortable when he's out on a limb. Of course, Steele doesn't see it as being out on a limb. The publisher of "Phil Steele's College Football Preview" just thinks he's right. And he is more often than most of his peers. So it was interesting yesterday during his interview on Idaho SportsTalk when he said he gives Boise State's home field advantage a rating of 6, the highest on his scale (Virginia Tech is the only other team he has at that level). And it was interesting when he analyzed Oregon and tabbed the Ducks as a "rebuilding team." Bottom line on the game on the blue turf September 3: Steele favors the Broncos by 10 points.

Steele doesn't have Oregon in his top 40.

By the way, I've always wanted to know who runs the radar? Maybe it's a consensus of all the preseason polls and CFB pundits? But who's keeping track of the "official" radar equipment?

Maybe you can say that Oregon is off Steele's radar. Pretty much Oregon St. too. (#36) Considering all that IS returning and the significance of that, I just don't get it. The emphasis is on who isn't returning and the assumption that there's nothing anyone can do about it in the least way. I know different, especially in my own neck of the woods. Steele is just a name anyway. The man himself is long gone. So who runs the radar these days?

It seems to me that whenever there's some turnover, the knowledge base on the staff shifts around. Hire a few analysts from the east and the west is glossed over too easily. etc. It's normal to expect that.

I'm probably the flip side of that scenario. I know west. But I don't claim to be a Big-E expert, or ACC. That whole friggin thing is off my radar and I freely admit it. (Though I have come to know Fridge lately, Brian Kelly too to an extent.) But I hold a lot of value in this concentrated form of expertise or knowledge. Like someone here that was raised in the MAC or B-12, they may know somthing about everything but I'd be more interested in what they know about what they've "concentrated" on their whole life. Seems like a much more reliable way to gauge a person's opinions. I think just about everyone has their strengths in some area over others. It's normal.

I'm getting a Steele mag anyway as usual when I find myself in the right bookstore in these parts. There's more to it than just his predictions and ranks. It seems with Steele, like the rest, his accuracy changes from year to year, and just like the rest, he misses the boat his fair share of the time.
 

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