Patriots Fans: Have you come to terms with the truth yet?

[Avocado33]

They set lines based on what they think will give them the best chance to maximize profit. Nothing more, nothing less.

Point being that the line doesn’t tell me that the Patriots are 1.5 points better than the Ravens, or something along those lines.

 

[PatsFan1283]

They set lines based on what they think will give them the best chance to maximize profit. Nothing more, nothing less.

Point being that the line doesn’t tell me that the Patriots are 1.5 points better than the Ravens, or something along those lines.

They set lines based on what they think is the most efficient line possible. With almost no regard for "the public" as DD said.

 

[Avocado33]

They set lines based on what they think is the most efficient line possible. With almost no regard for "the public" as DD said.

Youre right. That was false to imply the public did .

Im saying I don’t rely on Vegas to tell me the actual probability of an outcome.

 

[DesertDevil]

Im saying I don’t rely on Vegas to tell me the actual probability of an outcome.

What do you use then?

Vegas lines aren't the end all be all. But there are a lot of sharp people and computers behind those lines. If the numbers are too far off, Vegas can take a bath.

 

[PatsFan1283]

What do you use then?

Vegas lines aren't the end all be all. But there are a lot of sharp people and computers behind those lines. If the numbers are too far off, Vegas can take a bath.

I think he is just saying that he looks for the discrepancy between his own opinion and the line. And in the specific case of Ravens/Chargers, that discrepancy was pretty big because he thought LJax would be fraudulent seeing a team for the 2nd time.

 

[DesertDevil]

I think he is just saying that he looks for the discrepancy between his own opinion and the line. And in the specific case of Ravens/Chargers, that discrepancy was pretty big because he thought LJax would be fraudulent seeing a team for the 2nd time.

If that's what he's saying, then fair enough.

 

[Avocado33]

What do you use then?

Vegas lines aren't the end all be all. But there are a lot of sharp people and computers behind those lines. If the numbers are too far off, Vegas can take a bath.

I definitely don't ignore Vegas altogether, as you are right: there are very smart people and great analysis behind the lines they post. But I don't let Vegas be the end all be all, and dictate how I view the potential outcomes of a game.

I use a combination of things: my own data analysis/ statistical modeling from databases that I've created on my own (as well as using others of course), as well as more "subjective" factors like a lifetime of avidly watching/following sports, instinct, etc. It all comes into play, and that instinctive component is definitely helpful.

My main point is I think people let oddsmakers influence their decision-making too much. I think that reliance is what creates a lot of problems for people trying to succeed at this.

 

[Willie99]

I hope the Patriots are dogs come Sunday, that would be awesome

 

[DesertDevil]

I hope the Patriots are dogs come Sunday, that would be awesome

No chance. I do think it could hit -3.5 though. With an outside shot at -3.

 

[DesertDevil]

What looks good to you all this round? I think these matchups are fantastic. I put a little action on every game for fun.

<bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win Philadelphia Eagles +9 (-115)(307) Philadelphia Eagles @ (308) New Orleans Saints </bx-sports-transaction-description>
1/6/197:47 PM	<bx-dynamic-loader-component _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></bx-dynamic-loader-component><bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win Los Angeles Rams -7 (-105)(303) Dallas Cowboys @ (304) Los Angeles Rams </bx-sports-transaction-description>
1/6/197:46 PM	<bx-dynamic-loader-component _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></bx-dynamic-loader-component><bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win Los Angeles Chargers +4.5 (-115)(305) Los Angeles Chargers @ (306) New England Patriots </bx-sports-transaction-description>
1/6/193:13 PM	<bx-dynamic-loader-component _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></bx-dynamic-loader-component><bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win $ Indianapolis Colts +6 (-115)(301) Indianapolis Colts @ (302) Kansas City Chiefs </bx-sports-transaction-description>
1/5/1911:30 PM	<bx-dynamic-loader-component _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></bx-dynamic-loader-component><bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win Over 56 (-110)(301) Indianapolis Colts @ (302) Kansas City Chiefs </bx-sports-transaction-description>

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[DoublePlayBall]

I hope the Patriots are dogs come Sunday, that would be awesome

I just hope they're healthy and ready to go. I'm due a playoff win soon and The Pats are high on my list!

 

[Avocado33]

What looks good to you all this round? I think these matchups are fantastic. I put a little action on every game for fun.

<bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win Philadelphia Eagles +9 (-115)(307) Philadelphia Eagles @ (308) New Orleans Saints </bx-sports-transaction-description>
1/6/197:47 PM	<bx-dynamic-loader-component _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></bx-dynamic-loader-component><bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win Los Angeles Rams -7 (-105)(303) Dallas Cowboys @ (304) Los Angeles Rams </bx-sports-transaction-description>
1/6/197:46 PM	<bx-dynamic-loader-component _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></bx-dynamic-loader-component><bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win Los Angeles Chargers +4.5 (-115)(305) Los Angeles Chargers @ (306) New England Patriots </bx-sports-transaction-description>
1/6/193:13 PM	<bx-dynamic-loader-component _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></bx-dynamic-loader-component><bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win $ Indianapolis Colts +6 (-115)(301) Indianapolis Colts @ (302) Kansas City Chiefs </bx-sports-transaction-description>
1/5/1911:30 PM	<bx-dynamic-loader-component _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;"></bx-dynamic-loader-component><bx-sports-transaction-description _nghost-c15="" _ngcontent-c5="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">Placed - Single To Win Over 56 (-110)(301) Indianapolis Colts @ (302) Kansas City Chiefs </bx-sports-transaction-description>

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What did the Chiefs/Colts open at? Like 58ish? Looks like a good play to me there.

I like the Colts +6, but I'm playing Patriots and Cowboys. What about Eagles/Saints?

 

[DesertDevil]

What did the Chiefs/Colts open at? Like 58ish? Looks like a good play to me there.

I like the Colts +6, but I'm playing Patriots and Cowboys. What about Eagles/Saints?

That cut and paste didn’t turn out well. Its all cut off and worse on the phone.

I have:
Colts +6
IND/KC over 56
Rams -7
Chargers +4.5
Eagles +9

The total on the Colts game opened at 56 I believe.

 

[Avocado33]

That cut and paste didn’t turn out well. Its all cut off and worse on the phone.

I have:
Colts +6
IND/KC over 56
Rams -7
Chargers +4.5
Eagles +9

The total on the Colts game opened at 56 I believe.

Ah I see. I like Pats, Colts, Cowboys, Eagles to cover. I put some on Colts ML as well.


My fear for you is that Andy Reid may deliver his speciality and drop an offensive dud in a playoff game again. A 24-21 type loss kind of like last year

 

[DesertDevil]

My fear for you is that Andy Reid may deliver his speciality and drop an offensive dud in a playoff game again. A 24-21 type loss kind of like last year

Obviously anything can happen. But the KC offense is quite a bit better with Mahomes at QB rather than Smith. I like the play.

I'm more concerned about the weather. But that was a risk I took betting the opener. Right now I'm seeing a high of 36 with a good chance of snow. 9 mph winds. If that holds, then it shouldnt be too much of a factor. Hoping that wind stays in the single digits during the game though.

 

[DesertDevil]

Ah I see. I like Pats, Colts, Cowboys, Eagles to cover. I put some on Colts ML as well.

Plays I like the best are: Chargers and IND/KC over in that order.

Plays that are basically leans for action: Colts, Rams, then Eagles in that order of confidence.

 

[704EVER]

Like the Ind/KC over, Chargers will get smoked, they have no shot in Foxboro. Just my .02

 

[DesertDevil]

Chargers will get smoked

Again, anything can happen. But I just dont see it. Not this year.

* The Chargers are a better road team than home team.
* Many experts believe the Chargers are the best team in the AFC, and I agree with them.
* This is the weakest Patriots team in years.

You can argue against my 2nd point, but points 1 and 3 are pretty much fact. If Patriot fans are honest with themselves, they will admit this NE team has plenty of flaws.

I think the weather and location of the game is more of a factor working against LAC, not the opponent.

If I'm wrong, I'll tip my cap and look forward to next week. But I think it will be a competitive game no matter who comes out on top.

 

[DoublePlayBall]

Like the Ind/KC over, Chargers will get smoked, they have no shot in Foxboro. Just my .02

The game being in Foxboro is 95% of the reason, I like NE here.

 

[Acebb]

That's retarded. Even if it was free money, only a dullard would invest $100 to make $100 when they could invest the same $100 to win $180.

I'm just giving you a little grief.