Patriots Fans: Have you come to terms with the truth yet?

[DesertDevil]

If the Patriots cover vs LAC and then lose to KC, your prediction will have made you no money.

And?

I claimed the dynasty is over in this thread. I never came in and said "And I'll make you all money with my prediction."

Let's stay on point here.

 

[PatsFan1283]

And?

I claimed the dynasty is over in this thread. I never came in and said "And I'll make you all money with my prediction."

Let's stay on point here.

If you think the hammer is coming down this week but if it doesn't then it comes down next week then might as well just double up, no?

Definitely think you ran good w/ LAC though. NE would've ate B'More or Hou for lunch. Those were the two worst teams in the playoffs. Why I joked about NE playing both of them en route to the SB a few pages ago. That would've been more fortuitous than getting Tenn/Jville last year.

 

[Avocado33]

If you look at things objectively, you will have to admit that if the Pats win this weekend, they are looking at much different matchups then when they played the Colts/Chiefs the first time around.

The Colts are on fire right now and clicking on all cylinders. The game next week would be at KC.

A little different than an early regular season game at Foxboro.

Yeah, the Colts are on fire after beating a couple of AFC South teams, the Giants by 1 point at home, and losing 6-0 to a bad Jaguars team. That'll really scare the Patriots.

And you're right, it is different than an early season game: The Patriots tend to play better at this time of year, and Andy Reid teams tend to play worse. Believe it or not, the Patriots have been the better team since the first meeting.

The game being at KC doesn't mean much.

 

[DesertDevil]

Yet even before the Ravens/Chargers game, you blindly said that you'd take the Ravens or Chargers over New England.

Forgot to address this.

The reason for that, is because there was a good chance before last weekend that New England would host Houston. I did not like that matchup and would not have bet on Houston.

The winner of LAC/BAL? I liked either of those two teams winning in Foxboro.

 

[Avocado33]

The winner of LAC/BAL? I liked either of those two teams winning in Foxboro.

No way you're investing money in Lamar Jackson in Foxboro winning a playoff game. The Chargers one is at least rational

 

[DesertDevil]

If you think the hammer is coming down this week but if it doesn't then it comes down next week then might as well just double up, no?

Definitely think you ran good w/ LAC though. NE would've ate B'More or Hou for lunch. Those were the two worst teams in the playoffs. Why I joked about NE playing both of them en route to the SB a few pages ago. That would've been more fortuitous than getting Tenn/Jville last year.

To your first question, as I stated I already bet LAC +4.5. The points give me some insurance over a ML bet. And if NE wins this weekend, I will most likely be fading NE again. So yes.

And yes, I also stated that NE got the worst possible team to play in the divisional round. The Chargers are the best team of the 4 that played WC weekend.

 

[DesertDevil]

No way you're investing money in Lamar Jackson in Foxboro winning a playoff game. The Chargers one is at least rational

Before last week's game? I probably would have.

After what he did last week? Hell no. The Chargers provided a blue print on how to shut that thing down and Bill would have done the same. So correct, I would not have bet the Ravens in Foxboro after watching them last week.

 

[DesertDevil]

And you're right, it is different than an early season game: The Patriots tend to play better at this time of year, and Andy Reid teams tend to play worse. Believe it or not, the Patriots have been the better team since the first meeting.

The game being at KC doesn't mean much.

As they say... There is a reason why they play the games. We will see.

 

[Avocado33]

Before last week's game? I probably would have.

After what he did last week? Hell no. The Chargers provided a blue print on how to shut that thing down and Bill would have done the same. So correct, I would not have bet the Ravens in Foxboro after watching them last week.

It took you this past game to realize that Lamar Jackson couldn't win in Foxboro? Really? You couldn't see his deficiencies before?

 

[DesertDevil]

It took you this past game to realize that Lamar Jackson couldn't win in Foxboro? Really? You couldn't see his deficiencies before?

Oh. I see. We have a Monday morning QB here.

FTR, I bet the Chargers this past weekend. And can prove it if you would like (Actually went 3-0-1 last week with posted picks). I'm not sure that's necessary since my take was posted all over the forums. I liked the fact that LAC already saw that offense once and would be able to make the necessary adjustments to shut it down. And for 3.5 quarters, they did just that.

Jackson had obvious limitations, but still nobody could stop the offense with him at QB going into last week's game. Including the Chargers.

So you are being disingenuous with your Monday morning QB talk.

 

[DesertDevil]

LAC was +2.5 against that offense that had it's "limitations".

LAC is now +4 against Bill and Tom. In freezing temps. In Foxboro.

A 1.5 point difference.

What does that tell you?

 

[stretchrunner147]

And?

I claimed the dynasty is over in this thread. I never came in and said "And I'll make you all money with my prediction."

Let's stay on point here.

I think it would've been wiser to note the demise of New England after the playoffs.......Do I think the Pats have lost a step absolutely yes, but with Brady and Bill still at the wheel and an extra week to prepare you're asking for trouble betting against them....I wish you well ......

 

[DesertDevil]

I think it would've been wiser to note the demise of New England after the playoffs......

What fun would that be?

This is a forum. Having takes and discussing them is what makes this forum thing go.

 

[Avocado33]

Oh. I see. We have a Monday morning QB here.

FTR, I bet the Chargers this past weekend. And can prove it if you would like (Actually went 3-0-1 last week with posted picks). I'm not sure that's necessary since my take was posted all over the forums. I liked the fact that LAC already saw that offense once and would be able to make the necessary adjustments to shut it down. And for 3.5 quarters, they did just that.

Jackson had obvious limitations, but still nobody could stop the offense with him at QB going into last week's game. Including the Chargers.

So you are being disingenuous with your Monday morning QB talk.

Uhhhh what?

I've been laughing at the notion of Lamar Jackson playing a playoff game in Foxboro for weeks now. I also played Chargers ML because I know Lamar Jackson isn't good enough to play on this stage at a consistently high level.

 

[Avocado33]

LAC was +2.5 against that offense that had it's "limitations".

LAC is now +4 against Bill and Tom. In freezing temps. In Foxboro.

A 1.5 point difference.

What does that tell you?

It tells me that the public predictably overrated Baltimore, and Vegas capitalized on it.

 

[DesertDevil]

It tells me that the public predictably overrated Baltimore, and Vegas capitalized on it.

But says nothing about what sharp oddsmakers think of the Patriots?

Ok.

 

[DesertDevil]

Uhhhh what?

I've been laughing at the notion of Lamar Jackson playing a playoff game in Foxboro for weeks now. I also played Chargers ML because I know Lamar Jackson isn't good enough to play on this stage at a consistently high level.

Ok. Nice take then. Good job.

 

[DesertDevil]

It tells me that the public predictably overrated Baltimore, and Vegas capitalized on it.

And just so you know since you seem a little new at this with your posts, the public does not move lines. Nor do Vegas oddsmakers set lines necessarily for what Joe Public will bet.

They set lines for the sharp money. And sharp money moves lines.

Vegas fears sharp money. Not Joe Q Square.

 

[terps1313]

It tells me that the public predictably overrated Baltimore, and Vegas capitalized on it.

Not quite. The public was all over the Chargers.

 

[PatsFan1283]

And just so you know since you seem a little new at this with your posts, the public does not move lines. Nor do Vegas oddsmakers set lines necessarily for what Joe Public will bet.

They set lines for the sharp money. And sharp money moves lines.

Vegas fears sharp money. Not Joe Q Square.

Not just newbies that think the public factors into line setting, people that have been betting for years think it too.

I think it just sounds nice to people to think a collection of rubes created an inefficiency that they then exploited.