Numberz 2009 MLB THREAD....

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Some people, were born to win.
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Investment play:

10* ST.LOUIS CARDINALS +725
ODDS TO WIN NATIONAL LEAGUE
 

Some people, were born to win.
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will update record later for M-S-C..

Mini-Series-Chase

Always bet action, never pitchers..Trying to make 1 unit, on each of the 3 road teams below, which are all facing the sweep..I expect 2-1 at worst..GL :103631605

Game 1 of a Chase (3rd game/3 game set)

Los Angeles Dodgers (-105)

Game 1 of a Chase (3rd game/3 game set)


Atlanta Braves (-150)

Game 1 of a Chase (3rd game/3 game set)

Colorado Rockies (-141)
 

Wow

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So glad I caught your post yesterday.... Great to have won them all the very first try... got my cell phone bill taken care off for this month... lol.... Thanks you my friend....BOL...
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Mini-Series-Chase

Always bet action, never pitchers..GL :103631605

Game 1 of a Chase (2nd game/4 game set)

New York Yankees (-116)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Going to pass up the rest of the series, today, and try to pick them up in the middle of their series, with less risk...See you guys tomorrow..
 

Some people, were born to win.
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So glad I caught your post yesterday.... Great to have won them all the very first try... got my cell phone bill taken care off for this month... lol.... Thanks you my friend....BOL...

We all gotta pay our bills somehow :toast:
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Mini-Series-Chase

Always bet action, never pitchers..GL :103631605

Game 2 of a Chase (3rd game/4 game set)

New York Yankees (-141)
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Mini-Series-Chase

Always bet action, never pitchers..GL :103631605

Game 2 of a Chase (3rd game/4 game set)

New York Yankees (-141)

Game 1 of a Chase (2nd game/3 game set)

Detroit Tigers (-123)
 

Wow

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Let's get them today... with G2... Have a great Week Ends NumberZ...
 

Some people, were born to win.
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Going to begin capping individual games, for a while...the series chases, have been profitable, but are also beginning to bore me...worth noting that a great deal of the series chases cashed in game 1 situations....which means even if you had been flat betting each game and not progressively betting them, you would still be showing a profit...for now, I'd like to put them on the shelf for a bit, and go on capping individual games for a while...I would imagine 1-4 plays a day...going to be doing writeups as well, but if there is little interest, I will stop with the writeups, and perhaps stop posting all together until the football season gets here..GL to everyone :103631605
 

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Action play:

2* Chicago Cubs (-136)

Fading arguably the coldest team in the Majors tonight. Cincinnati is 1-12 in their L13 games, and will be sending a struggling pitcher to the mound. Harang, in his L3 has a 6.30 ERA and 1.600 WHIP, and he is 0-3 in these starts..Pitching hasn't been the only problem for the Reds, their bats have been cold as well. As a team they are averaging 3.1 runs per in their L7 games. Something which does not bode well considering they will facing the Cubs R. Wells, who is having a phenomenal season thus far..Wells has a 2.62 ERA and 1.007 WHIP on the road this year, and the Cubs are already 2-0 against the Reds this season when he has taken the mound. Two teams heading in opposite directions here, Cubs 7-1 in 2H of season when playing against teams with losing record, Reds 2-12 in 2H of season when playing against a team with winning record. At this price, this game is too much to pass up. I'll gladly back the Cubs here..GL, as always :103631605
 

MY HEART IS A HOME AND FEAR DONT LIVE HERE
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damn i wish you would keep the series going why you getting bored making money man. lol i thinks it nice and easier to cap a series and then just hope it comes through. i am sure there are others as well that would like for you to keep it going. i mean it goes without saying you do what you want but just giving my opinion. i was looking at det hou and lad to start for this one.... what do you think
 

Wow

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NumberZ, thanks for the winning series. Wish you still post the serie picks, but You got to do what is best for you. I will be following your picks and continue learning from your write up. BOL...
 

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damn i wish you would keep the series going why you getting bored making money man. lol i thinks it nice and easier to cap a series and then just hope it comes through. i am sure there are others as well that would like for you to keep it going. i mean it goes without saying you do what you want but just giving my opinion. i was looking at det hou and lad to start for this one.... what do you think

Perhaps, I will continue the chases STACKS, did not know there was any interest in them..give me some time to think about it..

Very little doubt in my mind that Detroit wins at least 1 game in the series against the road weary Orioles. However, when chasing, excessive juice can and should play a role in determining the series you choose to chase. Detroit is currently at -260 + at most books...the line for tomorrow's game is already out at about -230...which means if you were to be out today's game on the Tigers at -260, and it loses, you will need to bet tomorrows game to make $360. At a -230, you would need to risk almost $800. Should that game lose, you would be down almost $1100 with a game 3 to come. If washburn tomorrow is -230, what you think Jackson will be in game 3, -280? more? This would mean that, in order to make back your $1100, plus the $100 that you are trying to profit, you may need to bet out around $3600 for game 3!! Also this is a 4 game series, so should game 3 lose, you are looking at about a $4,700 deficit, if you were to chase into game 4 (assuming another -200 + line) you would have to bet out $10,000 or maybe more depending on the line. This would mean that IF detroit gets swept, your losses would be somewhere in the range of $15,000. If you were chasing series, to profit $100 in each, it would take 150 series chase wins to compensate for this one loss. Imo, juice needs to taken into account, even for the teams that you are convinced will not get swept. Because in the long run, it will only take 1 of these sorts of sweeps I have been describing above, to make you regret the day you began gambling. With that being said, I do not see the Tigers getting swept, especially when considering their opposition. Then again they are 2-5 in their L7, averaging a sub par 4 runs per game in that span. So although it is very unlikely they get swept, it is not totally out of the realm of possibility. Question is, Do you have the stomach to bet it all the way through, if push comes to shove?? The answer to that question, should determine whether or not you should bet them for the chase...In general I would advise being very picky about the juice you wager with, most notably in game 1 situtations, as this provides an indication of the juice that will follow. Same goes for the Dodgers. As for the Astros, the fact that Giants are 7-3 in their L10 and Astros are 3-7, would elimante them in my book. This is one of the many filters I use when deciding who to chase. With that being said, I do think that the Astros may be a decent team to chase considering that you will get them as a dog or at least close to a pick in nearly every game of the series. I personally would not bet them, simply becasue they are not coming into the series playing well, something which I look for in the teams I will chase. I've given you my opinion, the rest is up to you..I'll definately be rooting for you if you decide to bet either of the 3 teams! GL STACKS!!
 

Wow

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Are you kidding my friend...Your chase series help me pay my monthly phone bill and internet... I bet small though... $25....Appreciate whatever you decide NumberZ...BOL
 

MY HEART IS A HOME AND FEAR DONT LIVE HERE
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i forgot to mention that i would be on the rl for both det and lad. the only reason i am taking hou because of the price and sf on the road. they also struggle in hou in the past.

thanks for the reply i also added cincy lol
 

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1-0, +2 units last night, as the Cubs cashed easily....On to tonight, which is more or less a tough card imo..Think I have found 2 plays that are worth a wager, however..just small bets..

Action play:

1* Texas Rangers (-123)

A difficult price to pass up considering that Rangers have not lost 2 in a row in their L15 games played. Facing off against the A's Gonzalez, is likely to ensure that streak continues. Aside from the fact that Texas' offense thrives against lefties (5.2 runs per, with a .262 BA and .329 OBP), the one they will be facing tonight has the potential of getting lit up. Was not too long ago that Gonzalez gave up 11 ER on 10 hits in less than 3 innings pitched. His ERA at home is abysmal and his WHIP is just as bad. Whereas Texas hits lefties well (22-15 against lefties this season), the A's struggle against lefties (14-23 this season). They show a dip in runs per contest, BA, and OBP. Rangers' Holland, has also been showing steady improvement, in his L3 he is averaging more than 1 SO per inning pitched, and his ERA and WHIP has improved, earning him a 2-1 record over is his L3. Add to that, the A's struggles within the division (10-17) and the Rangers excellent play within the division (21-10), and this price becomes too much to pass up. Only thing that prevents me from making this a bigger play is the line movement. Still worth a bet though imo, for the reasons stated, so I'll gladly back the Rangers at this price. GL!

Action play:

1* Los Angeles Angels (-139)


Backing arguably the hottest team in the Majors tonight. Angels are 13-2 in their last 15, and will be sending the red hot Lackey to the mound, who is a perfect 3-0 in his L3 starts with 1.14 ERA and .718 WHIP. Stellar pitching is not the only thing we have going for us with this bet, we also have the red hot bats of the Angels. LA is averaging 8.3 runs per game over a 7 game span. Also, the Angels have scored 6 runs or more in each of their L6 games, and are coming off a 3 game stretch which saw them put up 11, 11, and 13 runs. The Angels surging offense does not bode well for the Sox in this one, as they will sending the struggling Contreras to the mound. Where Lackey has been near perfect in his L3, Contreras has gone 0-3, with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.800 WHIP. He has walked 10 and given up 20 hits in that span. So in effect, we have an overwhelming pitching advantage with Lackey on our side, and the red hot bats of the Angels for insurance. Only thing preventing me from making this a bigger play, is the impressive play of the Sox in the Yankees series they just played in. However, at this price, the league's hottest team is too much to pass up. I'll gladly back the Angels here. GL, as always :103631605
 

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