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Running backs I hate in 2017

Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints: Here are his carries per game the past three seasons: 17.4 in 2014, 13.8 in 2015 and 12.8 last season. I don't know why Sean Payton hates Mark Ingram or wants to keep him in bubble wrap, but not since Lamar Miller was a Miami Dolphin has there been a more frustrating fantasy usage experience. And now with a future first-ballot Hall of Famer on the team, it ain't headed back in the right direction anytime soon. Especially since Ingram played all 16 games last year for only the second time in six years, the plan worked for New Orleans and kept him healthy. At the end of the season, he'll be fine in terms of total points, but trust me here, there is no player more frustrating to own. When they let Coby Fleener vulture him at the goal line (again!), don't say I didn't warn you.

Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs: So this is from ESPN.com's scouting report on Kareem Hunt: Has exceptional ball security ... his elusiveness in space should make him a receiving weapon in the NFL. While he lacks top-end spend, Hunt creates his own yards thanks to a high-level combination of balance, vision and lower-body strength.
But me being down on Ware isn't just because of the threat of Hunt stealing some or all of his work. After Ware averaged just 3.3 yards per carry after his 10th carry last season (down from 4.9 yards per carry on his first 10 rush attempts of the game), the Chiefs may realize he profiles better as a specialist than a bell cow. Scoring on just 16.7 percent of his rush attempts inside of the 10-yard line (league RB average: 31 percent) is somewhat due to bad luck, but also somewhat on him. Either way, there are a lot of other RBs in Ware's range that feel safer to me with more upside. Hunt's ADP is twice that of Ware's. I'll take my chances on the rookie.

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions: On Aug. 13, 2015, Abdullah took the handoff and, on his third professional carry in a preseason game against the New York Jets, raced for a 45-yard gain. You'd have thought Kim Kardashian appeared naked on a magazine cover the way the internet broke that night, and his ADP was through the roof before the game (preseason Week 1) even reached the half. Well, we celebrated the two-year anniversary of that game on Sunday and Abdullah is still being overdrafted. Yet to stay healthy in two NFL seasons, Abdullah is unlikely to get goal line work (that'll be Zach Zenner) and will come off the field for Theo Riddick in many passing situations. The Lions improved the offensive line this offseason, adding T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner, but LT Taylor Decker's injury sets them back. Ultimately, I know Abdullah is a popular post-hype guy, but even though I think Detroit runs more this season (see Stafford, Matthew), I don't see a clear path to a lot of touchdowns or receptions as long as Zenner and Riddick are healthy.

Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons: So Coleman scored once on 89 touches as a rookie, but then he exploded for 11 scores on 149 touches last season. Where does the "real" Coleman project? Likely somewhere in the middle, and that's a problem considering he plays for the same team as the only running back in the league to notch 1,000 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons in Devonta Freeman. Only Mike Gillislee (12.6) had a lower carries-per-TD mark than Coleman (14.8) last season. As Mike Clay points out, "he registered only three carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line [he scored on all three] and had zero end zone targets." That makes the 11 TDs even more impressive/unlikely to repeat. I prefer him more as a handcuff to Freeman than a viable flex play this year.
 

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Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers: There is a difference between "injury prone" and "unlucky," and I'm firmly #teamunlucky on Allen. Look at his injuries: Broken right collarbone in 2014, lacerated kidney in 2015, torn ACL last year. That's just unlucky. I mean, come on, who lacerates his kidney? If you look at his past 16 games with Philip Rivers, he has averaged 17.5 fantasy points per game, which would have been WR7 last season, just one point per game less than Odell Beckham Jr. Wide receiver is so deep this year, remember that the difference between WR10 and WR33 last season was less than three points a game. So getting a potential WR1 in Round 5 (18th taken at the position)? All day, every day. The depth is good enough that I am willing to take the risk, because replacement level is high. But just like Matthew Stafford was unlucky early in his career, one of these days Allen is going to play all 16, and when he does, watch out. I'm saying this is the year that happens.

Terrelle Pryor Sr., Washington Redskins: Podcast fans know how much of a fan I am of this guy. Field Yates ate like a champ last year so I could enjoy my buddy Pryor on all teams (drafted, by the way, not picked up). Anyway, like I said with Cousins, this has more to do with my wanting to win fantasy leagues than it does my Redskins fandom. Last season, Cousins led the NFL with 37 completions that traveled 20-plus yards in the air, completing 48.1 percent of his attempts in the process (fifth best). The only QB in the past decade to achieve both of those thresholds in a single season was Peyton Manning in 2013. The 6-foot-4 Pryor now joins the team to not only help those red zone issues, but help stretch the field. Pryor tied for the fourth-most targets on 20-plus-yard passes last season and ranked 10th in air yards per target while on the Browns. After spending a summer working out with Randy Moss and Antonio Brown, Pryor gets a great QB, fantasy-friendly offense and 216 targets available with the departure of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon.
And while we are at it ...

Jamison Crowder, Washington Redskins: He is starting to pick up some hype, but I'm still not sure it is enough. He ranked fifth in PPR fantasy points (third in non-PPR) from the slot in 2016, a role that will be his and his alone again this year. Chemistry is difficult to quantify with numbers, but so is putting men on the moon and we figured that out. Receivers with a higher reception percentage and more receiving yards than Crowder over the past two seasons: Larry Fitzgerald and Doug Baldwin. That's it. You know, WR5 and WR6 since 2015. NBD. Speaking with different Redskins coaches this past offseason and they all, to a guy, say the same thing about Crowder: Love. Kid can do it all and has just scratched the surface. He won't get all the red zone looks he got last season, but I expect volume to make up for that.

Brandon Marshall, New York Giants: So, that sucked. I owned Marshall in two leagues last year. Brutal. So I get it. But do you think it was because he could no longer play or the Jets were just a dumpster fire? Since 2012, Marshall leads the wide receiver position in red zone fantasy points. In that same time frame, Eli Manning has thrown the seventh-most red zone passes. Even toward the tail end of his career, you could argue Manning is the best QB Marshall has ever played with. You want more numbers to back a nice touchdown bounce-back? During the past three seasons, 68 percent of red zone wide receiver touchdowns in the NFL have gone to a player who stands at least 6-foot tall. Odell Beckham Jr.: 5-foot-11. Sterling Shepard: 5-foot-10. Brandon Marshall: 6-foot-4. Marshall will see the No. 2 corner for the first time in a long time in his career, as teams that shadow will put their best guy on Beckham. That makes Marshall criminally undervalued at WR31 in the eighth round.

Mike Wallace, Baltimore Ravens: I don't even like Mike Wallace. I'm serious. But he has been a top-30 WR in seven of his eight seasons in the NFL, including last year, when Wallace finished as a top-25 WR in his first season in Baltimore (in both PPR and non-PPR). He is currently going as WR39. Yes, they signed Jeremy Maclin, but come on. Even if Maclin is productive and stays healthy (not givens), Wallace was able to put up numbers with Steve Smith there last year and that's the role Maclin will fill. With Smith, Dennis Pitta, Kamar Aiken and Kyle Juszczyk no longer in the mix, there are more than 300 targets from last year that are up for grabs. Did I mention the Ravens have led the NFL in pass attempts each of the past two years? WR39!

Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers: I wrote this in my free-agency Love/Hate column back in early April, but it bears repeating here since you may have missed it and nothing has changed, except my resolve that he will be a target monster in Kyle Shanahan's offense. I actually think Brian Hoyer is a decent QB and he is also familiar with Kyle Shanahan's offense from their time together in Cleveland. He is certainly good enough to get it to Garcon, as Shanahan has almost always had at least one elite fantasy wide receiver in his offenses, from Andre Johnson to Julio Jones to Pierre Garcon himself. Yes, Kyle was the offensive coordinator in Washington in 2013 when Garcon had his ridiculous 113 catches (on 184 targets!), 1,346 yards and five touchdowns. Expect San Fran to be down and throwing a lot this season, and Garcon, who was paid well to come to the 49ers, will get a huge target share from his former coach. Currently being drafted as a WR4, his upside is as top-20 receiver.

Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers: Bryant is a crazy talent who has obvious risk. I feel the same way about Bryant that I do about Keenan Allen. Given the depth at WR, I am taking chances on guys who could explode if everything goes right. Bryant fits the bill of a player who can win your league. He was a top-20 WR on a points-per-game basis in 2015, and there were 183 targets to Pittsburgh WRs not named Antonio Brown last season. Big (6-foot-4, 211 pounds), fast (4.42 40 time) and with a stud QB and fantasy-friendly offense, he's a big play waiting to happen and the only thing that worries me about my "Big Ben hate" call. But assuming Bryant gets reinstated this year, I'm all in on him.

Also receiving votes: Expectations are that Golden Tate is expected to be going out of the slot more, much like he was in 2015. The past two years, Matthew Stafford has thrown the eighth-most passes to the slot and that's where Anquan Boldin caught seven of his eight touchdowns last season. I'm also a Kenny Golladay believer, so some of those red zone looks will go to him, but I do expect Tate to improve on the four touchdowns he had last season. ... From Week 5 on last season, Cameron Meredith was WR18 in fantasy, and in the final six weeks he averaged more than eight targets a game and was WR10. Meredith is currently being drafted as WR44, but he will be a target monster and red zone threat on a team that will throw a lot and be better (not great, just not horrific) on offense than people think. ... People forget, two years ago John Brown posted a 1,000-yard, seven-touchdown season when Michael Floyd was still on the team and Larry Fitzgerald was two years younger. Now healthy, Brown is the No. 2 in a fantasy-friendly offense and going in the 12th round as WR45. I like his chances of beating that ADP. ... Tyrell Williams, I'm sorry, but at 6-foot-4 and fast, Williams, who was last year's WR19 is currently going as WR42. If you take out the games he played against Denver last season (because let's face it, you're not starting him against Denver), he would have been WR13. Yes, that was without Keenan Allen, but fine. I don't need him to be WR13. I just need him to be better than WR42, which, as long as Mike Williams is hurt, is a stone-cold lock. ... Finally, if you want a deep rookie no one will care about, I kinda like ArDarius Stewart to put up nice junk-time numbers for the Jets.
 

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Sammy Watkins, Los Angeles Rams: Crazy-talented, but it boils down to this. I think Tyrod Taylor is a pretty good NFL quarterback. As of now, I don't think Jared Goff is. I think Sean McVay is a great offensive mind and the Rams are going to be a much better offense this year. But McVay is not a miracle worker. Watkins is a deep threat going to play with a guy who, at least last season, didn't want to throw deep, as his 6.94 air yards per pass attempt was ahead of only Alex Smith and Sam Bradford. One more stat that Kyle Soppe dug up: In the past 10 years, there have been 349 instances where a QB attempted 200-plus passes. Goff's 2016 season ranks 345th in yards per pass attempt. The four guys he beat? Jimmy Clausen (2010), JaMarcus Russell (2009), Brady Quinn (2009) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (2008). Maybe Goff gets better in Year 2 with some actual playmakers around him, including a good coach, but unless Watkins drops into WR4 territory, I'm going to let someone else find out.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots: Love Edelman as both a player and a potential Tinder profile picture, but I guess it all depends on how you feel about Brandin Cooks. And a healthy Gronk. It wasn't until Week 12 last year against an awful Jets pass defense that Edelman produced 15-plus PPR fantasy points in a game in which Rob Gronkowski played. Now, he has done it in previous years, but still. Cooks, one of four receivers with at least 75 catches and eight receiving touchdowns in each of the past two seasons, is in town, and Gronk is fully healthy. Edelman's volume should go down and he has never really been a huge touchdown threat (three last season on just 14 red zone targets, and his career high is seven), so while he'll be fine in PPR, it's highly unlikely he ever wins you the week the way a guy like Keenan Allen (going one pick ahead of him on ESPN) or Michael Crabtree (going five picks later) could.

Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins: Not sure if you are noticing a theme here, but talk about no upside. (Go ahead, talk about it. I bet a picture of Jarvis Landry will magically appear. Or is that just me? How long have I been writing this thing?) Call me a Yater, but I don't see Jay Cutler taking Landry to elite levels. My guess is they don't let him throw it all that much. With Adam Gase calling plays in Chicago in 2015, the Bears had the fifth-highest rush percentage in the NFL. Last season, Miami called the second-fewest passes in the league. The emergence of DeVante Parker (Cutler does like his big-body guy on the perimeter), plus the addition of Julius Thomas means Landry is not improving on last season's paltry nine red zone targets. He's fine, but you need guys who can win you a week from time to time. I don't see that as being likely this year for Landry.

Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars: So Robinson's yards per reception dropped from 17.5 in 2015 to 12.1 last season, due in part to his yards after the catch dropping from 4.4 to 2.8. Robinson posted career lows in reception percentage, targets per route and receptions per route. That's a bunch of stats to tell what you already know. He was brutal last season and it never got better (Weeks 11-15, he was WR75). With a run-heavy game plan expected this year, you can no longer count on volume to help. Maybe Blake Bortles gets it together or maybe the running game falls apart and 2016 is a hazy memory, but I'd much rather have a guy like Kelvin Benjamin (who's going after him) than Robinson, who is merely a low WR3/WR4 these days. Don't Bortle your draft, look elsewhere for at least your first two WRs.
 

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Tight ends I love in 2017

Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots), Jordan Reed (Washington Redskins) and Tyler Eifert (Cincinnati Bengals): So, you don't need me to tell you they are studs when healthy. If you do, well, you'll have to take my word for it. They are. And this year, where they are going in drafts, that injury risk has been baked in. So I just wanted to drop this nugget: In the past three years, 39.4 percent of top-10 TE finishes in PPR leagues have come from tight ends who were not drafted entering that season. There are a lot of tight ends going in the 11-20 range who I like, and that doesn't even include a Dwayne Allen or Vernon Davis type if one of them gets hurt. Much like at wide receiver, I feel tight end is deeper than it has been in years past and the upside of this trio is worth the injury risk. I spoke a lot about this in my Draft-Day Manifesto, regarding drafting players in terms of range of outcomes. All these guys have "win you your week" upside that most tight ends don't. At their current price points -- end of Round 2 for Gronk, Round 5 for Reed, Round 9 for Eifert -- I'm good with the risk.

Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks: Rave reviews out of camp are normal and it's Jimmy Graham, what are they gonna say? But last year's TE4 was actually ... unlucky? Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has been quoted as saying Graham should get even more red zone looks this year. This, after a season in which he was third in red zone targets among tight ends. And that's scary when you think of this: Graham is just 5-for-18 on end-zone targets during his Seahawks career (that's a 28 percent catch rate). League average, incidentally, is 37 percent. You telling me Jimmy Graham isn't league average? He has been unlucky and health has been an issue. Especially when you consider that from 2010-14, Graham caught 28 of 52 end-zone targets (54 percent). Even if he doesn't get an increase in targets, had he caught 54 percent of his end-zone targets he would have been TE2 last season. Graham could easily be TE1 this season and I believe he is in the upper tier of tight ends, even though he isn't being drafted as one (currently going sixth, behind Delanie Walker and sometimes behind Kyle Rudolph as well).

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts: Yeah, yeah, we are all on Doyle. By the time late August rolls around, he won't be a sleeper anymore because every fantasy analyst in the universe will have talked him up. But Doyle is another guy who made the "Love" list in my free-agency "Love/Hate" column in early April. It's real simple. In the past three years, 25 percent of Andrew Luck's completions, 24 percent of his passing yards and a whopping 37 percent of his touchdowns have gone to tight ends. New Colts general manager Chris Ballard let Dwayne Allen go and instead signed Doyle to a $19 million deal, in part because no tight end had a higher catch percentage last season than young Jack Doyle. He's not the deepest of sleepers because, again, I think he's going to be on everyone's sleeper list, but whatever. He was on mine in April, so screw it. I'm sticking with him. I cannot believe he is going as TE18 right now on ESPN. Top-10 guy for me.

Others receiving votes: Hunter Henry was not a fluke last year. In speaking with a Chargers offensive assistant at the combine, I was told that there was a concerted effort to get Antonio Gates the record for touchdowns by a tight end (he is currently tied). Said the coach, "Henry should have had 12 touchdowns last year." Now you could argue that one of the reasons Henry was open is because teams knew they wanted to get Gates the record, so they had Gates blanketed, but by the time you get your argument out I've already moved on. Henry has Philip Rivers' trust in the red zone, no small thing, and with Gates' snaps being cut back even more in his age-37 season, Henry should get enough volume that will make up for whatever potential regression there might be. ... Austin Hooper scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl and, with Jacob Tamme gone, the 6-foot-3, 254-pounder is the starting tight end on a great Falcons offense that had 10 tight end touchdowns last season. ... Health, not talent, has always been the issue for Julius Thomas and while he no longer has Peyton Manning, he is reunited with Adam Gase. Jay Cutler likes his tight ends - the past three years, 27 percent of his completions have gone to tight ends. That's Andrew Luck territory -- so JT makes a nice, cheap, upside pick at his current price of TE20 (14th round). ... Finally, you're not drafting him because he is suspended for the first two games, but Austin Seferian-Jenkins is someone with a lot of talent and, well, there's not a lot of that on the Jets right now. Remember, he did play with Josh McCown some in Tampa.
 

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Martellus Bennett, Green Bay Packers: Ah, 2011. Lady Gaga was shooting up the charts with "Born This Way." We met the big-screen version of Steve Rogers and saw the latest in red skin technology in "Captain America: The First Avenger," and Charlie Sheen introduced us to the phrase "Tiger Blood." It was also the year that Jermichael Finley finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end in both overall scoring and on a points-per-game basis.
It's also the only time that has happened for an Aaron Rodgers tight end. I don't get the Martellus Bennett hype. For the record, he is not close to peak Jermichael Finley in terms of upside. Bill Belichick, who seems to know a thing or two about football and tight ends, and after seeing Bennett for a year and winning a Super Bowl with him, was like, "Yeah, we're good." Prior to last season, Bennett had never been a huge touchdown machine, and three of his seven last season came against Cleveland, which probably shouldn't even count. Let's play a quick game:
Percentage of Rodgers' completions that have gone to TEs:
2008-10: 19.6 percent
2011-13: 18.6 percent
2014-16: 17.1 percent

OK, class, are these numbers trending in the right or wrong direction? In 2016, all the people who slobbered over Jared Cook finally getting to "play with a real QB" got disappointed. All Green Bay tight ends accounted for just 16 percent of Rodgers' completions, 15.9 percent of his targets and 15.4 percent of the receiving yards. For the sake of comparison, Gary Barnidge (TE20 last season) received 16.3 percent of completions, 15.1 percent of targets, and 16.6 percent of the receiving yards in Cleveland. There's probably a reason Martellus is now on his fifth team in a 10-year NFL career and his third team in three years. But instead of worrying about that, ask yourself why Rodgers would suddenly start throwing to the tight end in a significant way in his 10th season as a starting QB, when all of his receiving weapons from last season are back. (That's right, I don't consider Jared Cook a weapon.)

Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders: It's always nice when a transition works out. Look, it was a great play in the playoffs. Amazing, even. But in fantasy we care about the regular season and we care about touchdowns, and over the past two years, Cook has one touchdown. ONE. Aaron Rodgers threw for 40 touchdowns last season and literally one of them went to Cook. Do you know how hard it is to play 26 games at tight end in two years and score only one touchdown? Here's a list of some tight ends with more touchdowns during the past two seasons than Cook: Demetrius Harris, Darren Waller, Troy Niklas, Jake Stoneburner and John Phillips. Maybe it's because the Raiders didn't have anyone good to throw to, but during Derek Carr's three seasons in Oakland, the Raiders rank 23rd in receptions by TEs, 28th in receiving yards and tied for 25th in receiving TDs. Last season, specifically (Carr's best season), they tied for third fewest in tight end targets. Cook looks great in a uniform and I am sure he's a nice person, but I am not a fan. Currently going as TE15, last year's TE36 (again, WITH AARON RODGERS) is all yours.

O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A bigger name than fantasy producer this year, Howard (a very good blocker in college) may be more of a run-blocker than a pass-catcher early on, especially with the emergence of Cameron Brate, who will certainly eat into his target share. Among rookie tight ends since 2001, only Jeremy Shockey in 2002 caught more than 55 passes, and only Rob Gronkowski in 2010 reached double-digit TDs. There is a long history (Hunter Henry not withstanding) of rookie tight ends taking time. I'm on board in dynasty, but not in re-draft leagues.
 

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Adam Gase: Dolphins' Jay Cutler set to play Thursday.

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Jay Cutler looks set to make his Dolphins debut this week. Coach Adam Gase told reporters Tuesday that the quarterback "looks like" he's going to play in Thursday's preseason against the Baltimore Ravens.
Cutler has been with Miami for a little over a week after coming out of a brief retirement.
The reunion between Gase and Cutler happened in large part because of the quarterback's familiarity with the coach's system stemming from their time together in Chicago. With Cutler getting up to speed re-learning the offense, it makes sense to give him some run this week to help work on his rapport with new teammates in a live setting.
How much time Cutler spends on the field remains to be seen. Even a few drives will give the Dolphins an indication of where he is with the offense and show the rest of us the status of his arm after undergoing surgery that ended his 2016 campaign.
While Cutler will play Thursday, Gase said he hasn't decided on whether running back Jay Ajayi will participate. Ajayi cleared concussion protocol Tuesday.
 

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Ryan Mathews released by Philadelphia Eagles.

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Ryan Mathews was given a clean bill of health on Tuesday. Then the Philadelphia Eagles cut the veteran running back.
The Eagles informed Mathews he was released shortly after clearing the running back.
Coach Doug Pederson told reporters that Mathews had been cleared as healthy by the training staff. The 29-year-old running back underwent offseason neck surgery.
Mathews missed workouts all offseason while rehabbing. Philadelphia was waiting until he was medically cleared to release the running back, in order to avoid having to pay an injury settlement. The Eagles will save $4 million on the salary cap by releasing Mathews, per OverTheCap.com.
As Philadelphia's main power back in 2016, Mathews earned 661 yards on 155 carries with eight rushing touchdowns. When the Eagles signed LeGarrette Blount this offseason, it signaled the likely end of Mathews' run in Philly. Now that he's been cleared, the Eagles officially move on.
 

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Ezekiel Elliott files appeal to six-game suspension.

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Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott officially filed his notice of appeal to the six-game suspension he received last week for violating the league's personal conduct policy, the NFL Players Association announced Tuesday. The filing comes four days after NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Elliott after a year-long domestic violence investigation by the league determined there is "substantial" evidence that he assaulted a woman identifying herself as his former girlfriend.
A date for Elliott's appeal hearing must be scheduled within 10 days of the notice of appeal.
A portion of Elliott's appeal argument will revolve around the credibility of his ex-girlfriend, Tiffany Thompson, those familiar with it told NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. Elliott's legal team will attempt to show that the NFL's suspension did not accurately weigh that factor in making its decision.
Elliott's six-game ban stems solely from the league's investigation into the domestic violence allegations made by Thompson in July 2016, a league source told NFL Network's Tom Pelissero. In a statement released by the league, Todd Jones, the NFL's Special Counsel for Conduct, said independent advisers who reviewed the evidence gathered by the league "were of the view that there is substantial and persuasive evidence supporting a finding that [Elliott] engaged in physical violence against Ms. Thompson on multiple occasions during the week of July 16, 2016."
Elliott, 22, has denied the accusations. He was never arrested or charged in the matter.
On Monday, Rapoport and Pelissero reported Elliott accused Thompson of harassment in a filing with Texas police in September. Frisco Police Sgt. Jeff Inmon told Pelissero the harassment case is no longer under active investigation.
Goodell was aware of the harassment filing when forming his suspension decision, but Elliott's legal team hopes to highlight it in their appeal, according to Rapoport.
If Elliott's full suspension is upheld on appeal, he would be barred from taking part in any team activities starting on Sept. 2. He wouldn't be eligible to play until the team's Week 8 contest against the Washington Redskins on Oct. 29.
 

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Tennessee Titans focused on maintaining culture, ignoring hype.

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NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Of all the positives brewing around the Tennessee Titans these days, the one that is easiest to miss is undoubtedly the most important.
This team is a trendy pick to become a postseason contender because of the promise of third-year quarterback Marcus Mariota, the dominance of a bruising running game and the potential of a rapidly maturing defense. It's also on the brink of a breakthrough season because of an undeniable shift in team culture. Make no mistake: That chemistry will drive whatever the Titans do this coming fall.
That fact comes through in the way Mariota, a rising star, carries himself with constant humility and an effortless calm. It's apparent when considering how most of the biggest names on the roster operate in the trenches and care little about who gets the glory. The Titans didn't go 9-7 and challenge for a playoff spot in 2016 because they got lucky. They did it because they figured out what it takes for a young squad to actually start winning in this league.
Their challenge this year is to continue that momentum. It's a tougher task with the mounting hype surrounding this team.
"I showed the players a highlight tape of last year, and I told them how much the fans love the way we play -- with competitiveness and resilience," said head coach Mike Mularkey, who is in his second full season after serving nine games as the team's interim head coach following the firing of Ken Whisenhunt in 2015. "But again, that was last year. This is a totally different year, with new faces. We all know what will happen if we win one or two games more than we did last year. But that hype will get you beat if you pay attention to it. We need to be careful to not think about where we are when we aren't there yet."
The best thing about the Titans is that they have no reservations about what they are. They are a blue-collar bunch, one that is low on star power and high on toughness. The team did add some more dynamic elements in the first round of April's draft -- with the selections of wide receiver Corey Davis and cornerback/punt returner Adoree' Jackson -- but the first thing Mularkey boasts about isn't their electric skills. It's their maturity and professionalism, and how their no-nonsense nature fits so well within the team's overall framework.
Of course, it's not uncommon for coaches to gush about the importance of chemistry. There's also a lot of truth in the fact that the best teams in this league win consistently because of such buy-in. The Titans haven't been to the postseason since 2008 -- and have been over .500 just twice in the intervening years -- because they lacked both talent and chemistry. As tight end Delanie Walker said, the "inmates were running the asylum" around Tennessee when he arrived four years ago.
"Coming from San Francisco, to see guys coming into a meeting late and nobody saying anything, it kind of blew my mind," said Walker, who played with the 49ers from 2006 through 2012 and helped that team reach Super Bowl XLVII. "I'd be sitting there waiting for something to happen and nothing ever did. We had (former Navy SEAL) Marcus Luttrell from 'Lone Survivor' (a book and movie based on one of Luttrell's military operations) come in one time, and he said that if somebody is late in the military, somebody is getting killed. That's basically what was happening to us. Guys were showing up late and we were getting our asses kicked."
The Titans produced seven victories in that 2013 season Walker referenced. They won two games the next year and three the year after that. As much excitement as there was in the form of Mariota, who was the second overall selection in the 2015 NFL Draft, there was plenty of reason to think the Titans might stumble along for the foreseeable future. After all, one of their AFC South rivals already had a stud quarterback (Andrew Luck in Indianapolis), while another was on its way to two consecutive division titles (Houston has taken that honor in 2015 and 2016).
The difference today is that Tennessee's talent pool is stronger -- and so is the belief in the overall message. The offensive line has become a strength behind a pair of bookend tackles: Pro Bowler Taylor Lewan on the left side and first-team All-Pro Jack Conklin on the right. That unit helped power the NFL's third-best rushing offense, with DeMarco Murray enjoying a bounce-back season (he rushed for 1,287 yards after gaining just 702 in Philadelphia a year earlier). The defense also improved up front, with defensive tackle Jurrell Casey and outside linebacker Brian Orakpo earning Pro Bowl honors.
Overall, five Titans made the Pro Bowl, the most for that franchise since 2008. One player who could join that group in 2017 is Mariota, who was named an alternate for the game last season. He posted a 95.6 passer rating in 2016 while throwing 26 touchdown passes against nine interceptions. The only concern the Titans have with him is whether he's able to stay healthy.
Mariota broke his right fibula in Week 16 of last year and finished the season on injured reserve. He also missed four games as a rookie because of two separate knee injuries. Still, none of that's enough to deter Mularkey from using Mariota as a running threat. With the addition of Davis, the talents of Walker and the multi-dimensional skills in the backfield, Mariota is expected to cause even more problems for opposing defenses with his arm and legs.
"You have to let him run," Mularkey said. "He's too much of a threat on defenses and he's healthy. I've never had a quarterback I've coached get hurt running the football. I have had plenty get hurt in the pocket when they haven't been protected. But we're never going to expose him to any hits by having unblocked defenders. That's how our runs are designed."
Added Mariota: "The sky is the limit. With the weapons we have on offense, it will be important for me to spread the ball around and operate like a point guard. I need to make sure guys have the opportunities to make plays."
The Titans do understand that there are certain major questions that remain unanswered as they head into the fall. They did overhaul a lousy secondary during the offseason, with the addition of Jackson and free-agent cornerback Logan Ryan ranking as the biggest moves. They also need Davis to grow up fast as a rookie, and Eric Decker, who signed in June, to be a reliable weapon for Mariota. Wide receiver was another area where the Titans failed to impress in 2016.
What the Titans also have to do is remember how they reached the point where expectations are so high in the first place. They've checked a lot of boxes, including finding a franchise quarterback, building a strong offensive line and molding an attacking defense. They've drafted intelligently and made similarly wise moves with free-agent signings and trades. More than anything, they've believed that there is something special happening within their walls, something that few could see until the end of last season.
The Titans won't have the luxury of being underestimated any longer. They also understand the importance of not dwelling on any progress from the past. The current players realize that all they ultimately did in 2016 is raise the expectations on their potential. This time around, they're clearly well-positioned to make good on all that promise they created.
 

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NFL trade proposals: Seven deals that'd help all parties.

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Friday's juicy trade action that saw Sammy Watkins shipped to the Rams and Jordan Matthews land with the Bills is a reminder that teams are still fine-tuning their rosters ahead of September's regular-season launch.
With August game action swirling on a nightly basis (or so it seems), coaching staffs are getting a better idea of bubbling team needs and players who simply don't fit the system. Trades are rare in the NFL -- annoyingly rare -- but we've pinpointed a handful of deals that make sense for all parties involved.
Let's dig in:

Bills ILB Reggie Ragland to the Chiefs

Hand-picked by Rex Ryan, Ragland was identified as an ideal fit for the ex-Buffalo coach's 3-4 scheme. In Sean McDermott's 4-3 operation, though, the hard-hitting Alabama star has failed to click, riding with the third-team defense in recent days. Ragland's rookie season was washed away by a knee injury, but the 2016 second-rounder is filled with promise as an old-school, aggressive defender who fearlessly seeks out ball carriers. I'd love to see him grow in Kansas City, where the team could use an understudy to Derrick Johnson, who turns 35 this November. Few teams do a better job of developing young defenders -- the kind of attention Ragland desperately needs.

Bengals RB Jeremy Hill to the Giants

Bengals coach Marvin Lewis loves to slow-cook his rookies, but who are we kidding? By all accounts, Joe Mixon has the goods to start immediately as a workhorse in Cincy's backfield. In the final year of his contract, Hill won't cost much for suitors in search of running-game help. Coming off a playoff season, the Giants could address one of last year's enduring issues -- their stuck-in-the-mud ground game -- by shipping a low-level draft pick to the Bengals in exchange for Hill. He would have the chance to contribute right away ahead of Paul Perkins, who has failed to shine this summer for the G-Men. With the Cowboys holding their breath on the fate of Ezekiel Elliott's six-game ban, the time to strike in the NFC East is now.

Browns CB Joe Haden to the Cowboys

Speaking of Dallas, the 'Boys have issues beyond Elliott's suspension. Rod Marinelli is one of the game's craftiest defensive coordinators, but he's been handed a secondary bereft of reliable talent beyond promising young safety Byron Jones. In a division stocked with dangerous pass catchers -- Odell Beckham Jr., Terrelle Pryor, Jamison Crowder, Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall -- Dallas could use a hand at cornerback. Haden has been one of Cleveland's most loyal assets, but the club's front office has made a cottage industry of moving expensive veterans in exchange for draft picks. Joe Thomas isn't going anywhere, but Haden -- no longer a top-five player at his position -- would have a chance at a Super Bowl ring in Dallas. As for Cleveland, another valuable draft-day selection would help the team build for a brighter tomorrow.

Jets RB Matt Forte to the Ravens

Like the Browns -- and to a much deeper degree this offseason -- the Jets have scrubbed the roster of expensive, aging veterans. Forte has been spared -- perhaps the wrong word -- but it's not too late to make a move. New York can ride the Bilal Powell train this autumn while getting a late-round pick in return for Forte, who remains under contract through 2018. The injury-ravaged Ravens can't rely on Terrance West alone for early-down work following Kenneth Dixon's season-ending injury. Forte would give Baltimore's veteran-heavy offense a reliable, productive back who can work all three downs. You can't have enough of those in the AFC North.

Browns OL Cam Erving to the Chargers

Back to Cleveland, where the team's current decision makers must figure out what to do with a player they inherited who refuses to live up to the billing. A first-rounder in 2015, Erving has struggled at center and looked like a comprehensive liability filling in for Joe Thomas at left tackle in Thursday's preseason opener. Unlikely to beat out Shon Coleman on the right side, Erving needs a fresh start. The Browns won't get much in return, but the Bolts -- constantly wading through injuries up front -- are one team that could take a low-level flier on a player with a fair amount of potential. If Erving's not their cup of tea, the Chargers would be wise to inquire about Eagles center Jason Kelce.

Colts WR Phillip Dorsett to the 49ers

In Atlanta, Kyle Shanahan flipped the switch on offense by surrounding All-Pro wideout Julio Jones with imported talent in the form of Mohamed Sanu and deep threat Taylor Gabriel. Landing Dorsett would give the new 49ers coach a viable downfield option to pair with Pierre Garcon. Dorsett has struggled to break out, but Shanahan thrives at putting young players in position to succeed. The move would leave the Colts a little light at receiver, but new general manager Chris Ballard could net a nice pick in return while moving on with Kamar Aiken alongside T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief.

Titans FB Joe Bacci to the Patriots

Bill Belichick loves to wheel-and-deal, especially when it comes to churning the bottom third of New England's roster. Why not take a flier on Bacci, the unheralded, completely untested fullback out of Central Michigan? It's easy to imagine Belichick forcing some cowed underling to watch 284 hours of Bacci's on-field tape from his days at Romeo High School in Michigan, where he thrived as an all-county and all-conference first-team linebacker. A bruising, 245-pound college star who shifted from defense to fullback, Bacci would give the Patriots an innocent young drone to be morphed into a wily special teams player who exists on New England's roster until 2028 while occasionally dropping 180-yard, four-touchdown bangers on the Jets.

What about Brock?

I'm sure my editors would love to see a quarterback trade in this space, but I just don't see it happening with Brock Osweiler for two reasons: (1) his outrageous $16 million salary and (2) his extreme limitations as a football player. Not a good combination. Besides, with Cody Kessler struggling in camp and DeShone Kizer just beginning his career, Cleveland appears compelled to hold on to Brock. This could change if a team or two were to lose a starting passer, but I can't help but think that Blake Bortles might be the first to draw trade interest in that scenario. I'd imagine Jacksonville would at least pick up the phone.

ADDITIONAL TRADE CANDIDATES: Eagles center Jason Kelce, Jets defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson (Gang Green has tried to move him for ages -- no dice), Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks, 49ers running back Carlos Hyde, Redskins running back Matt Jones, 49ers tight end Vance McDonald.
 

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Delvin Breaux out 4-6 weeks with fractured fibula.

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The New Orleans Saints will be without Delvin Breaux for the next several weeks.
The cornerback will undergo surgery for a fractured fibula and miss the next four to six weeks, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported, per a source informed of the situation. Rapoport adds the fracture was discovered when an independent doctor read Breaux's X-Ray. The timeline likely means Breaux will miss the start of the season, which opens for the Saints on Monday, Sept. 11 in Minnesota. ESPN's Mike Triplett first reported the news.
The news of Breaux's fracture comes after it was originally misdiagnosed as a contusion. The Saints fired two team orthopedists because of the bad diagnosis, per Rapoport.
The team had been frustrated with Breaux struggling to recover from what it believed to be a contusion. Now that it's been properly diagnosed as a fracture, his elongated absence makes more sense.
For a Saints defense that is perennially lousy, missing Breaux for the start of the season cuts depth from a secondary that needs all the help it can get in 2017. Had the diagnosis been correct when Breaux went down, he'd likely have been back at the start of the season.
 

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Raiders getting most bets to win Super Bowl this season.

The Oakland Raiders don't arrive for a couple of years, but they're already Las Vegas' team at the betting window.
This offseason, more bets have been placed on the Raiders to win the Super Bowl than on any other team at sportsbooks around town.
Oakland's Super Bowl odds, which opened as high as 20-1, have moved to as short as 6-1. Just four weeks before the regular season, only the New England Patriots, the consensus favorite, have better odds than the Raiders. The Patriots are listed at 3-1.
At William Hill's 108 Nevada sportsbooks, the Raiders have attracted nearly twice as many bets to win the Super Bowl as any other team. They're also No. 1 in Super Bowl bets at Caesars Palace, Station Casinos, South Point, Westgate Las Vegas and CG Technology sportsbooks.
It's not just stabs on Oakland to win the Super Bowl, either. At Station Casinos' sportsbooks, there are more bets on the Raiders to win the AFC West than there are on any other team in any other division, and Oakland also tops the bet count in the odds to win AFC.
"It's all Raiders," said Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director for Station.
Bettors also are backing the Raiders in their opener at Tennessee. Oakland is around a 1-point favorite over the Titans at most books.
"We have 43 bets on the Raiders and four on Tennessee," Westgate assistant manager Ed Salmons told ESPN on Tuesday.
The Raiders will be relocating from Oakland to Las Vegas as early as 2019. Billboards can be seen around town reminding fans of their imminent arrival. At McCarran International Airport, Raiders gear -- sweatshirts, T-shirts and hats -- are now found hanging on display in front of news and gift shops.
"Before you didn't see sports memorabilia in the news and gift stores typically, now you see Raiders items on display on the racks and right in front of the stores," Chris Jones, chief marketing officer for the Las Vegas airport, said this week.
Bookmakers aren't convinced the Raiders' move to Las Vegas is driving the current surge in betting interest, though.
"I don't think it has anything to do with the Las Vegas angle," Salmons said. "Last year, the Raiders played really high-scoring games, and they started covering spreads. That is just the dynamic of a public team."
Oakland went 10-6 against the spread last season, with games averaging 50.0 total points.
Salmons, a 30-year Las Vegas oddsmaker, isn't buying the hype on the Raiders and points to the action on Oakland's season-win total as evidence of a divide between the betting public and the more sophisticated bettors. The Raiders' win total is set at 9.5.
"We've got 82 bets on over and 33 on under," Salmons said. "Essentially, the public is on the over, and the wise guys are definitely on the under on the Raiders."

Here are the most bets to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate SuperBook:
1. Raiders
2. Packers
3. Cowboys
4. Giants
5. Steelers
 

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Brock Osweiler to start for Browns, with DeShone Kizer on second team.

BEREA, Ohio -- Cleveland Browns quarterback Brock Osweiler will start the second preseason game Monday night against the Giants, with rookie DeShone Kizer moving up to second team, coach Hue Jackson announced on Wednesday.
The move with Kizer will give the Browns a chance to see how he does against backups -- and perhaps even some starters depending on how long the Giants play them. Kizer threw for 184 yards and a game-winning touchdown in the second half of the preseason opener against the Saints.
"I still think that right now where we are that Brock deserves the opportunity to walk out there first," Jackson said. "And I think seeing DeShone, last week it was in the second half. I want to see him now in the first half and see what he can do there. Give him an opportunity there to showcase his talent and ability. And then we'll put Cody (Kessler) in and go from there."
Osweiler completed 6-of-14 passes for 42 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions in the first preseason game.
Jackson's announcement came on the day left tackle Joe Thomas said he did not think Kizer would be the starter for the season opener.
"I could be totally wrong," Thomas said. "I might be going out on a limb here. But I think that they're grooming Brock to be the starter in Week 1 based on what I've seen."
Osweiler started against New Orleans and has been given the first-team reps in every practice since. Thomas said that Osweiler's experience gives him an edge. He sees promise in Kizer, but echoed the feeling of quarterback coach David Lee that Kizer is not ready to face Pittsburgh in the opener.
"My personal philosophy is as a quarterback it takes at least two or three years to have a basic level of understanding of NFL defenses and offenses, to be able to operate proficiently out there on the field, especially in Week 1," Thomas said. "That would be asking a lot."
"Our players all have opinions," Jackson said. "Joe is here very day and sees what's going on. So it means it's good that he feels that way. It means Brock is doing some good things in the locker room and on the field.
"At the same time I think Joe knows I get to make that decision. I do talk to our players, because I think it's important our players know exactly what I'm thinking all the time. We'll see how that all unfolds. There's a chance that can happen. There's a chance it couldn't happen. We're just going to work through it and keep going."
Jackson said after this second game he should know the starter for the opener and that person would star the third practice game, in Tampa Bay Aug. 26.
Jackson evaluated Osweiler this way.
"I think he's done a good job of managing our offense, putting people in the right spots and places," Jackson said. "Brock's a pro. He's done this. He's not going to get fooled by many things. Obviously he'd be the first to tell you there's some throws he wants to make better, some things he wanted to do better. And he'll work at those things. I think he deserves to go out here first and we'll go from there."
Thomas will not play in the second game as the Browns continue to nurse him to the regular season without overdoing things in camp.
However the team did announce that two offensive linemen would miss the Giants game because of injury. Guard Joel Bitonio (knee) and backup tackle Cam Erving (calf) will miss the game and be evaluated on a week-to-week basis. The Browns did not specify the specific nature of the injuries, but sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that both players aim to be ready for Week 1.
"I don't think it's anything major that's going to keep them out a ton of time," Jackson said, adding he was hopeful and confident that both players would be healthy for the season opener Sept. 10 against the Steelers.
With Thomas not playing and Erving out, rookie Rod Johnson will start at left tackle and veteran John Greco moves in at left guard.
 

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