NFL training camp previews for all 32 teams.

[Greenbacks]

RANK

3

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks



I listed Doug Baldwin among my must-own receivers earlier this summer, so let me once again wax poetic about his merits -- especially if he falls to the third round. Baldwin's target share in Seattle is consistent (22, 21, 22 percent, respectively since 2014) even as the team's pass attempts have increased in each of those seasons (454, 489, 567). He's delivered back-to-back top-10 fantasy finishes in both standard and PPR formats while expanding his game beyond the slot. In 2015, 95 percent of Baldwin's yardage (1,011) and 93 percent of his touchdowns (13) came from the slot, per Next Gen Stats. In 2016, those percentages fell to 59 for yardage (662) and 57 for touchdowns (four). Baldwin proved he could win outside, posting a 78 percent catch rate and 15.36 yards per catch average when lined up out wide. The Seahawks passing attack could take off this year, and Baldwin is in a great place to ball out yet again.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

4

Terrelle Pryor, WR, Redskins



By now you likely know Washington lost over 200 targets with Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson departing in free agency this spring. Yes, Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed remain and will see plenty of looks, but make no mistake -- Terrelle Pryor is the team's No. 1 wide receiver. He's a capable downfield threat who will absorb Jackson's old role, while also being a prominent option in the red zone. Somewhere around 120 targets is a reasonable projection for Pryor, and he should be able to do plenty of damage with opportunities in the Redskins offense. Pryor certainly could have a lower floor with so many mouths to feed in Washington, but his ceiling is that of a top-10 fantasy wide out and is worth chasing in the fourth round.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

5

Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings



If your roster construction follows a similar path to the one I'm sort of building in this piece (RB-WR-WR-WR), then Dalvin Cook is an excellent high-upside RB2 to target here. While Latavius Murray was on the PUP list briefly, Cook went out and wowed in practice and on the preseason field. He's a multi-talented back who should lead this running back group in touches with ease. He may lose out on a few scoring opportunities to Murray near the goal line, but Cook's upside in a sneakily dangerous Vikings offense is tremendous.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

6

Frank Gore, RB, Colts



A good way to insulate a fantasy squad from the risk of a high-upside youngster like Cook is to back up that pick with a stable veteran. There hasn't been a more stable veteran in fantasy than Frank Gore, who has amassed more than 1,200 total yards for 11 STRAIGHT YEARS. The Colts may need to rely on Gore even more in the early portions of the season with Andrew Luck's timetable for returning from shoulder surgery still murky. Gore isn't likely to win you many weeks on his own, but he'll rarely burn you with a goose egg in the stat sheet.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

7

Adrian Peterson, RB, Saints



I know it might seem a little bit like we're forming an AARP contingent in this fantasy backfield with these last two picks, but Adrian Peterson is just two years removed from a 1,400-yard, dominant campaign. The reason he falls this far is due to the crowded committee he's now a part of in New Orleans. If the A.D. of old emerges, this pick is a total steal. If he's a role player alongside Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, then at least he can have some flex value and you didn't waste too high of a pick on an aging committee member.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

8

Stefon Diggs, WR, Vikings



The Stefon Diggs hype train among fantasy analysis is close to careening off the tracks judging by how high he goes in "expert" mocks, but in more casual leagues the Vikings wideout is coming at a huge discount. On the surface, arm chair analysts can poke a lot of holes in the case for Diggs being a dominant fantasy receiver: Sam Bradford is his quarterback, he's smallish, he's been hurt a bunch, the Vikings offense isn't that great, etc. However, when you look more closely, Bradford played quite well last season and Diggs just missed 1,000 yards in only 13 games. Now fully healthy with a better offensive line and running game around him, Diggs could truly break out in fantasy this year.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

9

Pierre Garcon, WR, 49ers



Much like with Diggs, Garcon is criminally underrated by more casual players. When it comes to finding valuable later-round wide receivers, volume is what to chase, and Garcon should be swimming in targets this year. With no legitimate options alongside him, it'd be an upset if Garcon doesn't ecplipse 150 targets. That total would put him in the top 12 among wide receivers in targets in each of the last five years. During that span, only six wideouts of 60 to reach that threshold of targets failed to finish as at least a top-24 wide receiver. A WR2 in Round 9? Give me that all day, please and thanks.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

10

Rob Kelley, RB, Redskins



While the fantasy community assumed Samaje Perine would immediately enter Washington and steal the starting job from Rob Kelley, it appears Kelley had other plans. Slimmed down and playing well, "Fat Rob" appears set to hold onto his leading role in this backfield for awhile. He'll still lose passing down work to Chris Thompson, but a starting running back on a high-scoring offense is a nice piece to add to any fantasy roster in the double digit rounds, especially in standard scoring leagues.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

11

Kenny Britt, WR, Browns



I've written about Kenny Britt so many times this summer I could probably do this in my sleep, but here's the long and short of why he's an elite late-round option. Last year, Britt managed over 1,000 yards and five touchdowns with Case Keenum and Jared Goff slinging him the rock and no other reliable threat in the passing game. In Cleveland he'll presumably have an upgrade at quarterback but most definitely has an upgrade in terms of the talent around him thanks to Corey Coleman, David Njoku, and Duke Johnson / Isaiah Crowell. Another 1,000-yard season is well within reason for Britt, and in the later rounds, that's hard to ignore.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

12

Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers



While it could be tempting to draft one of the top tight ends early, more often than not waiting on the position is the right strategy. Antonio Gates hanging around the Chargers for one more year has allowed Hunter Henry to slide down draft boards. While he might go earlier than the 12th round in some leagues, his touchdown-upside makes him a huge value here. If you miss on Henry, other late-round options to target include Jack Doyle, Eric Ebron and Coby Fleener.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

13

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals



Whether or not you believe in Andy Dalton as a fantasy passer speaks to how closely you follow both the game of football and fantasy. Everything that could go wrong for Dalton last year did. A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert got hurt. The running game stalled. His offensive line fell apart. As a result Dalton posted a career-low 3.2 touchdown rate. In 2015, prior to injuring his thumb Dalton was on pace to finish as a top-five fantasy quarterback. Now, he's coming at a steep discount despite having an influx of new talent, Joe Mixon and John Ross, and a healthy Green/Eifert. As JJ Zachariason of NumberFire noted, when both Green and Eifert are healthy Dalton has a touchdown rate of 5.59 -- that would have been the eighth-highest mark in the league last year.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

14

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals



The Bengals backfield is a mess. The team drafted Joe Mixon in the second round, but Giovani Bernard has recovered quicker than expected from a torn ACL last year, and the drum beat keeps building that Jeremy Hill could remain the starter for awhile. All of this makes it totally worth throwing a late-round dart at Bernard. Hill has struggled mightily the last two years and Mixon is still a rookie. Bernard could at the very least slide into the third-down/hurry-up role, if not more. Plus, we've seen him lead this backfield before, so if injuries hit this unit he could be a steal.

 

[Greenbacks]

RANK

15

Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins



I've been pumping up Kenny Stills as a deep sleeper all offseason, but the arrival of Jay Cutler could really help solidify Still's credentials as a later-round flier. Stills expanded his game under Adam Gase, but remains a dangerous downfield threat: eight of his nine touchdowns came from outside the red zone in 2016, with four coming from 40-plus yards out. Cutler has a cannon for an arm and likes to chuck the rock deep. Miami figures to remain a run-first operation, but Stills' chances of getting close to his 2016 touchdown total got a bit better with Smokin' Jay now under center.

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

 

[Greenbacks]

Matthew Berry ESPN......Love/Hate

Drafting Antonio Brown in the first round last year was fine. He was a first-round stud. But drafting Michael Thomas in the middle to late rounds? That's what wins you your league.
A player's perceived value is baked into his draft price. There's a reason David Johnson is going first and why Ameer Abdullah is not. As of today, one is considered much more valuable than the other. To put a number on it, we'll use our ESPN average draft positions. If I love a guy, it means I'd draft him sooner than his ADP. If I hate him, I think he's going too early. It doesn't mean that because I love Mike Wallace, I'd draft him before Julian Edelman, whom I hate. If you want to see whom I'd draft before whom, check out my rankings. So PLEASE use this column as intended. It is NOT a sleepers and busts column. Rather, a market inefficiency column. With bad jokes.
To answer a common question every year, there's a reason there are so many more loves than hates. You don't really need me to tell you not to draft Jared Goff. His value and rank reflect that he's not thought of highly in fantasy. I am from the "there's no such thing as a bad pick after Round 12" philosophy. So that means I am choosing "hates" only from guys who are high enough to be drafted with big expectations. That's a very finite group.
If you choose to ignore these caveats and your season goes to hell, don't blame me. Remember, only a poor craftsman blames his tools. That's all I am: your tool. Wait, that came out wrong. Which is odd, given that I've used that joke eight years in a row now. What? I'm saving the good stuff for the TV show.

 

[Greenbacks]

Quarterbacks I love in 2017.

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: OK, OK. I hear you. Keep your voice down. The guy in the next stall thinks you're weird. I know you think this is a homer pick. Just like you did last year when he was on this list (ADP of QB13 last year, finished as QB5) or just like you did the year before that when I talked him up all preseason and he finished in the top 10 as well. Just because I'm a homer doesn't mean I'm wrong, and while I have questions about Washington's defense and win total this season, the offense is going to put up points. A lot of them. The past two years, Cousins is third in completion percentage, fourth in passing yards, seventh in pass attempts and third in QB rushing touchdowns. That's right, Cousins has nine rushing touchdowns the past two years. Some are scrambles, but many of them were designed plays. He's much more mobile than he gets credit for. The other thing that's great is he's not a guy who goes up and down with big games and then disappears. Per Tristan H. Cockcroft's consistency ratings, only Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan had a higher "start percentage" -- meaning weeks they finished in the top 10 at the position -- than Cousins last season. The one area he and the 'Skins struggled in last season? The red zone, where Cousins was 24th in the NFL in completion percentage. So what did they do? Went out and got 6-foot-4 Terrelle Pryor Sr., plus they get 6-foot-2 Josh Doctson back from injury (hopefully, he said, fingers crossed). Cousins is betting on himself this year for a contract, and at the end of it, it'll be a bet he wins. I'm along for the ride.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: There's risk here, of course, as he's coming off an injury and has missed time each of his two seasons in the NFL. But given the depth of the QB position, I'm OK with the risk based on the enormous upside. There will be a solid option available in the waiver pool if it doesn't work out, but I believe it will. You've probably heard me mention the stat last season that, from Weeks 5-12, no QB scored more fantasy points than Mariota (in fact, only David Johnson scored more at any position in PPR). It's cherry-picking stats given the time frame, and naysayers will point to the ridiculously easy schedule, but still, it points to the potential he has to perform at an elite level for a sustained period of time. He has been the most efficient red zone quarterback since entering the NFL (33 TD passes and no interceptions), and now the Titans add the second-highest-scoring red zone receiver since 2012 in Eric Decker, along with talented 6-foot-3 rookie Corey Davis, to returnees Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker. Playing behind an offensive line that last season was fifth best in pass protection rate (the percentage of plays the offense controls the line of scrimmage on dropbacks), the 6-foot-4 Mariota will have plenty of time to find one of his talented receivers. I expect the Titans to not be as run-heavy this season with more weapons to throw to, and Mariota will return top-10 value at QB2 prices.

Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers: I feel Rivers' pain. Much like him, I had to move my place of work from where I had developed comfort. OK, so my move was across the ESPN campus, but the sentiment remains the same. I had to move, but I'm working with the same team and producing the same quality of content this season as the many that came before. Criminally underrated, Rivers enters 2017 having posted four straight seasons with at least 4,200 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns, a claim that only Drew Brees can also make. Last season's 14th-best QB, Rivers had a brutal career-high 21 interceptions, costing him 42 fantasy points. If you give him just the 13 interceptions he averaged from 2006 to 2015, he finishes last season as QB8. And realize he played last season without Keenan Allen. Foreshadowing here, but I believe Keenan stays healthy here, and that's huge. During the past four seasons (Keenan Allen's career), Rivers has a 69.8 completion percentage, averages 7.9 yards per attempt and has a 2.4 TD/INT ratio with Allen on the field. Without Allen, it's a 60.8 percent completion rate, 7.3 yards per attempt and a 1.7 TD/INT ratio. Do it another way: Take the 38 games he has played with Allen, average them out for 16 games and you get 4,597 passing yards, 31 TDs and 13 interceptions. He's currently going as QB19. Come on people.

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills: So there is only one player in the NFL who has at least 3,000 passing yards and at least 550 rushing yards in each of the past two seasons. That man? Tyrod Taylor. You'll win a lot of bar bets with that one after, of course, you've scared off any possible romantic liaisons with your nerd football stats. Before you yell Sammy Watkins at me, realize that with Sammy Watkins, Taylor averaged 18.9 fantasy points per game in ESPN scoring. Without Sammy: 18.3 fantasy points per game. (To put those numbers in perspective, the past two years Russell Wilson is averaging 18.95.) The rushing helps keep his fantasy floor high (at least 30 rushing yards in 19 of 29 games, more than any QB in the NFL), plus a familiarity with new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison (they were together in Baltimore) helps, as Dennison is a fan of getting the QB out in space and will certainly take advantage of Tyrod's mobility. Taylor was a top-10 QB last season (when Watkins missed eight games and was a decoy for a few others), yet he is going 21st among QBs (21st!). Taylor is an insane draft-day bargain.

Others receiving votes: Jameis Winston is the only QB in the NFL to throw for at least 4,000 yards in his first two seasons, and now he adds DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard. I also expect his rushing touchdowns to improve a bit from last year's one. Believe the hype. ... Andy Dalton is going 20th among QBs. Nothing sexy here, except he was last year's QB12 without A.J. Green, Tyler Eifert or Giovani Bernard for most of it. He gets all of them back healthy and adds rookies Joe Mixon and John Ross. By the way, fun fact about the Red Rifle: Only Cam Newton has more rushing touchdowns among QBs since 2012 than Dalton. ... There are only three rookies in NFL history to throw for more yards than Carson Wentz did last season and now they've added Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith. The Eagles were quietly sixth in total pass attempts last season, head coach (and, ahem, former NFL QB) Doug Pederson likes to throw and throw he shall, as Wentz takes the next step. ... Healthy and only a year removed from a top-five fantasy finish, you could do much worse than Carson Palmer, currently going as QB18.

 

[Greenbacks]

Quarterbacks I hate in 2017

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: Another great NFL QB who drives me nuts fantasy-wise, Big Ben has played all 16 games in a season just three times in a 13-year NFL career. So you say, fine, Berry. I'll have to find a replacement for a few games. To which I say, Sparky (note: This assumes your name is Sparky), not just a few games. You have to find a replacement for at least eight games, because he's literally unstartable on the road. During the past three years, Ben has averaged 13.71 fantasy points per game on the road, or the 22nd-best QB in fantasy. The Steelers consistently go conservative when on the road, as they are averaging 70 fewer passing yards and two fewer passing touchdowns per game away from Heinz Field the past three seasons. Starting in 2010, here are the final finishes for Roethlisberger as a fantasy QB on ESPN: 17th, 13th, 18th, 12th, 5th, 20th and 18th. And yet, I see him consistently going between QB8 and QB12. No thanks.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions: OK, so a funny thing happened on the way to Jim Bob Cooter's induction into the Fantasy Hall of Fame: The Lions kind of became a ball-control team. During the second half of last season, Detroit was 11th in average time of possession and averaged the third-most plays per drive. Gone was the gunslinger and instead we had ... a dink and dunker? Well, sort of. Stafford was 21st in yards per pass attempt in the second half of 2016, and after a red-hot start, he had zero or one passing touchdowns in seven of his final 10 games. He also rushed for two in that time frame, but come on, you're not counting on that. While his playing in all 16 games contributed to the seventh-best QB fantasy point total, he was just 19th among QBs in fantasy points per game in the season's second half, behind Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill, among 16 others.
An improved offensive line and the return of Ameer Abdullah makes me think this offense is heading toward more balance this season, not toward reversing its second-half play. I love Stafford as a player and I'll never tire of Jim Bob Cooter jokes, but in his past 16 OUTDOOR games, Stafford has averaged just 15.4 points a game, which would have been QB21 territory last season. "So he's worse outside a dome, Berry. Who isn't?" you say. Well, three of his four games in Weeks 13-16 are outdoors, during the fantasy stretch run/playoffs. Those expecting anything close to last year's QB7 finish will be sorely disappointed.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: The weird part is I actually am a Dak believer. As an NFL quarterback, that is. Not a fluke. That said, there two things he did last year that inflated his fantasy value and I see both of them regressing. First, his rushing. He ran for six touchdowns. Since 2002, there have been only three quarterbacks to run for five-plus touchdowns in multiple seasons: Cam Newton, Michael Vick and Tim Tebow. Remember, Jameis Winston ran for six his rookie year, and then just one last season.
To put it another way, since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, there have been only eight rookie quarterbacks to rush for six touchdowns. All of the previous seven decreased in rushing touchdowns the following season except Tebow, who tied his number (and that was because they wouldn't let him throw). So the rushing will regress, and the interceptions will increase. Prescott's TD/INT ratio was 5.75. Since 2001, of QBs with at least 450 passing attempts, there have been only four seasons with a better ratio: Aaron Rodgers twice (2011, 2014) and Tom Brady twice (2007, 2010). That's it. Not Peyton, not Brees. All due respect, I'm not ready to say Prescott is peak Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. They are different quarterbacks in different situations obviously, but this piece of it feels very Nick Foles-esque to me. Did the league figure him out? He was QB13 from Weeks 12-16 (he didn't really play in Week 17). Dinking and dunking last season, Prescott threw only 42 passes at least 20 yards downfield, tied for 26th in the league with Alex Smith. With the Ezekiel Elliott suspension, I don't see them going away from a run-heavy attack, either. Dak will be fine this year, but he's more of a QB2 to me and yet, he's being drafted as a legit QB1. I'm not convinced.

Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans: Just pointing out that a QB that is currently NOT ACTUALLY A STARTER is being drafted ahead of guys such as Carson Wentz, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Tyrod Taylor and Andy Dalton, all of whom (except Wentz) have had a lot of fantasy success in the NFL and, you know, HAVE AN ACTUAL STARTING JOB. In fairness, he's being drafted in a lower percentage of leagues than those guys, but he's ahead of them in ADP. I love Watson in dynasty and think he starts sooner than later, but in a re-draft league, he should not be drafted. Especially not ahead of the guys I just listed.

 

[Greenbacks]

Running backs I love in 2017

Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders: At some point, it boils down to this: You believe or you do not believe. I'm on board. I mentioned this in my 100 facts you need to know before you draft column, but it bears repeating here. As bad as Lynch was in 2015, he was still ninth in rushing yards after first contact per carry. Banged up and yet, still Beast Mode. Problem was (in addition to health), he ranked 43rd of 44 qualified runners in yards before first contact. In other words, the line was terrible. Now a year removed (and fresher), he's playing behind an offensive line that last season helped the Raiders average 120 rushing yards a game and a top-six finish in rushing touchdowns. People are worried about reports that Lynch might get only 200 carries. You know who else got 200 carries or so last season? Latavius Murray, who was RB13 despite missing two games and is not nearly as good at football as Lynch. Beast Mode will get all the goal line work on a team that will score a lot.

Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns: Yes, I'm discussing a Cleveland athlete on an ESPN platform and it's not LeBron. I'll probably be fired tomorrow. But on the off chance I'm still around, get used to me talking up Isaiah this summer. I mentioned him as a big winner in the free-agency edition of "Love/Hate" for two big reasons: What the Browns did on the offensive line and what the Browns did not do at quarterback.
On the line, they brought back guard Joel Bitonio while signing guard Kevin Zeitler and center J.C. Tretter. Of course, they still have stud left tackle Joe Thomas, too. This is very quietly one of the best lines in football. And at QB, they, um, traded for Brock Osweiler. Whoever starts for Cleveland, Hue Jackson does not want them throwing it. The Browns are going to be a run-first team and run they will with Crowell, who quietly had a top-15 season in 2016. Crow is one of only six backs in the NFL under the age of 30 with at least 145 carries in each of the past three seasons, and he has never missed a game in his NFL career. Crowell averaged almost five yards a carry last season, so he has RB1 upside at a low-end RB2/flex price in most rankings. And now, the 225-pound bruiser is poised to get the rock a ton behind a great O-line. Don't take my word for it. Take coach Jackson's, as told to Pat McManamon: "I beat myself up [for not running Isaiah Crowell more in 2016]."

Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars: When new coach Doug Marrone says he wants Blake Bortles throwing it zero times a game, he means it and not just because he has watched Bortles throw. As head coach of the Buffalo Bills in 2013-14, Marrone rushed on 41 percent of plays, seventh most in the NFL. He wants to slow down the game, control the clock and grind out wins with his defense. Whether that will work remains to be seen, but either way, Fournette is going to touch the ball a lot. Like, a lot a lot. The Jags were ninth in rushing yards before first contact per rush last year, so they can actually block and now they have someone to block for. As I was writing this, the team announced a vague foot injury for Fournette and were "keeping an eye on it," but assuming all checks out fine, I'm on the bandwagon.

Danny Woodhead and Terrance West, Baltimore Ravens: Even though West's ADP is slowly rising in the wake of Kenneth Dixon's injury, both are still being criminally undervalued on ESPN. Last season was Marty Mornhinweg's first as the offensive coordinator in Baltimore and based on how he used his backfield, it should be no surprise that the Ravens signed Woodhead this offseason. Running backs and fullbacks accounted for 26.9 percent of all Baltimore receptions last season (for reference, Odell Beckham Jr. was responsible for 26.8 percent of Giants receptions), and that's saying something when you consider that the Ravens have led the league in pass attempts in each of the past two years. Consider this: Woodhead ranks seventh among running backs in receiving yards since 2013 ... and he has missed 27 games during that stretch. Injuries are a concern, of course, but if healthy he's a potential RB1 in PPR leagues going in the seventh round and outside the top 20 RBs.
Meanwhile, West is better than you think. He's not great, but he is better than you think. I'm hoping that's a TV review of me. Anyway, last year the Ravens gave nine carries to RBs inside an opponent's 5-yard line. Seven of those nine went to West. Yeah, it was a tough year for Baltimore, but the percentage is what I am focusing on. West ranked 11th in yards after first contact per rush, yet he's currently going as RB36 in the 11th round. Sure, it's PPR, but still. He's a legit flex in PPR with potential RB2 numbers based on touchdown potential. Obviously a greater value in non-PPR formats.

LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles: He's not gonna score 18 touchdowns again. I know it, you know it, my mother, who doesn't even play fantasy football, knows it. But people are so busy screaming "regression" from their Barcaloungers (just go with it) that they fail to realize the Eagles gave Ryan Mathews 69.6 percent of their running back carries inside the 5-yard line last season. Pederson likes to give it to one guy when they get close and that guy, this year, is gonna be LeGarrette Blount. The Eagles, who last season actually had a better yards before first contact per rush average than the Patriots, have a good offensive line, especially considering they should have Lane Johnson all season. Blount is currently going as RB27 in the ninth round, but I like him to be better than that, even in PPR.

Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints: So it's very simple. The past three years the Saints have 49 rushing touchdowns, fourth most in the NFL. This is a team that scores a lot and is not afraid to run it when in close. In fact, last season there were 246 non-Mark Ingram running back touches, so there's work to be had here. And even if you believe Peterson is no longer the guy he once was -- and if you want to bet against Peterson, knock yourself out ... I'm not gonna -- he should have a much easier time running. In the past five years, Peterson had the second-most rushes in the NFL against eight-plus defenders in the box. You think anyone is putting eight in the box against Drew Brees? In the same time frame, Saints RBs have been 18th in the NFL in rushes against eight-plus defenders. He has as good a chance as any to get double-digit touchdowns this season, just as he has in every season he has played at least 12 games. He's going as RB26 in the eighth round, but he's a legit RB2 to me with, you know, Adrian Peterson upside.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: If you want nothing to do with Mixon because rooting for him will make your stomach churn, believe me, I get it. And you definitely won't be alone. But from a pure fantasy football point of view, he's gonna have a huge year. From the eye test, he's the most gifted runner in this rookie class, a true three-down back. Hopefully, reports of Jeremy Hill working with the first team will depress his ADP. He's going in RB2 territory right now, but frankly, I think he earns it. In each of the past four years, the Bengals and Carolina Panthers are the only teams with 440-plus rushing attempts. Cincy will continue to run the ball a tremendous amount. Even with an ineffective run game last season, the Bengals were still top 10 in rushing attempts and only five teams had more rushing scores. So we know they'll run, but with whom? Giovani Bernard is coming off a major injury, and in the yards-per-carry category, of the 27 running backs with at least 275 carries over the past two years, Jeremy Hill ranks ... 27th. You don't take Joe Mixon and all the off-the-field baggage he brings just for "running back depth." He's going to start for the Bengals sooner than later and he's got a legit shot to be a top-10 running back on a points-per-game basis once he gets the gig.

Others receiving votes: "Fat Rob" Kelley is better in non-PPR than PPR, but after becoming the starter in Week 8, he ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, yards after contact per rush and was 15th among RBs in PPR fantasy points (13th in non-PPR). ... Jacquizz Rodgers is currently going as RB48. In games in which he has gotten at least 15 carries, he's averaging 4.4 yards per carry and was RB13 last year in Weeks 5-8 when he got a shot. He's gonna start three games and possibly many more, given Doug Martin's injury history and uneven production. And oh yeah, he's basically free. ... As required by fantasy analyst law, I'm on the Kareem Hunt bandwagon. More about him in Spencer Ware's "hate" section. ... You can get Eddie Lacy in the eighth round and Thomas Rawls in the 14th right now. I LOVE the idea of grabbing both and having the "Seahawks RB" for two cheap picks. Rawls is currently running with the first-team, but as I write this in mid-August, I don't think we know who will be the guy yet. But Rawls, along with guys like Jonathan Stewart, Jeremy Hill (despite what I wrote about Mixon) and Matt Forte are easy-to-acquire veterans who have both had success in the NFL (and fantasy) and a potential path to playing time that isn't hard to imagine. ... Rookies going late that I like? Alvin Kamara, D'Onta Foreman and James Conner (just remember what the Pittsburgh RB does if anything happens to Le'Veon Bell). ... Meanwhile, in a deep PPR league? Kyle Juszczyk is gonna catch a lot of balls this year. ... Speaking of the 49ers, a respected NFL scout I speak with, who is NOT with the 49ers, passed this along to me on draft day: "I'm taking Joe Williams with my last pick in every fantasy draft I can this year."