Arizona Cardinals:
Projected starter: 1. David Johnson
Backups: 2. Chris Johnson; 3. Andre Ellington; 4.
Stepfan Taylor
2016 Outlook: Once
David Johnson took over as the
Cardinals bell cow last season in Week 13, he collected a 79 percent share of running back carries through the rest of the regular season. Johnson is a no-brainer first-round pick in all fantasy formats as he'll be the team's workhorse from the get-go this year with
Chris Johnson and
Andre Ellington likely to play a complementary role behind him. With the three-down capabilities Johnson possesses, coach Bruce Arians will be hard pressed to take his talented young runner off the field.
Fantasy managers who do end up drafting David will want to consider investing in veteran Chris as a potential handcuff, but not until the very late rounds.
Andre Ellington, who has had durability issues nearly his entire career, is nothing more than an afterthought and probably should not be drafted save for the deepest of leagues as a dart throw. Williams and Taylor are capable of handling a full workload but would only be called upon in desperate times.
Atlanta Falcons:
Projected starter: 1. Devonta Freeman
Backups: 2. Tevin Coleman; 3. Terron Ward; 4.
Brandon Wilds
2016 Outlook: Why is last season's top-scoring fantasy running back available in the middle of the second round of drafts this year? Good question. Most of that has to do with the fact that the
Falcons' coaching staff has said they want to incorporate
Tevin Coleman more often in an effort to preserve Freeman for the entire season. Still,
Devonta Freeman is Atlanta's go-to back in red-zone and goal-line situations, which makes him a nice value considering his ADP. Coleman will cut into Freeman's workload some, but it shouldn't be enough to deter fantasy owners from investing in the
Falcons' primary back. Freeman, who was targeted 97 times as a pass-catcher last season, remains one of the top picks at running back in PPR formats and if you can snag him in Round 2 of a standard league, consider it a win.
Baltimore Ravens:
Projected starter: 1. Justin Forsett
Backups: 2. Terrance West; 3. Javorius Allen; 4.
Lorenzo Taliaferro
2016 Outlook: Justin Forsett, who will turn 31 in October, projects as Baltimore's starting running back to open the year which makes his Round 10 ADP seem like quite a bargain. But the veteran has a few hungry teammates creeping up behind him and pushing for touches. Before Forsett went down with a broken arm last year, he averaged 4.2 yards per carry in 10 games but scored only two touchdowns leaving fantasy owners who invested an early-round pick in him wanting more. His injury opened up an opportunity for Buck Allen to get some work as a rookie, and he flashed as much as one might think he could in an anemic Baltimore offense depleted by injuries. But this preseason, Allen worked behind a surprisingly resurgent
Terrance West who projects to be Forsett's No. 1 backup and may even usurp the starting role at some point during the year based on a strong showing in camp and exhibition game action. Rookie
Kenneth Dixon suffered an MCL tear in the
Ravens' third preseason game, so he will miss at least the first month of the season and should not be on the redraft radar. The bottom line here is if you're messing with any
Ravens' running back in fantasy, you're playing with fire. It's probably going to be one of the more confusing situations in the league and none of these backs are worth more than a double-digit round dart throw.
Buffalo Bills:
Projected starter: 1. LeSean McCoy
Backups: 2. Reggie Bush; 3. Mike Gillislee; 4. Jonathan Williams
2016 Outlook: A hamstring injury limited Shady's production early last season, but he did manage to produce some solid weeks for owners who stuck with him. With
Karlos Williams out of the picture now, McCoy projects for a huge workload in Buffalo's run-first offense. He's healthy and has the potential to post RB1 numbers at a second-round cost. Bush may spell McCoy in certain situations but isn't worth a draft investment.
Mike Gillislee should serve as McCoy's primary backup and showed some flashes late last season. In fact, in the final five games of 2015, Gillislee averaged 5.6 yards per carry taking his 47 rushes for 276 yards and three touchdowns. He's worth a late-round dart throw given McCoy's injury history. We know Rex Ryan employs a ground-and-pound offense (the
Bills had the highest run percentage in the NFL last season, 52.2) which means there will be ample opportunities for these backs to get theirs.
Carolina Panthers:
Projected starter: 1. Jonathan Stewart
Backups: 2. Fozzy Whittaker; 3. Cameron Artis-Payne; 4.
Brandon Wegher
2016 Outlook: Last year,
Cam Newton accounted for a third of the
Panthers' rushing yards.
Jonathan Stewart received 53 percent of the team's rush attempts and for the most part was quietly consistent from a fantasy perspective. In the 13 games in which he was healthy, Stewart never saw fewer than 10 rush attempts and went on an insane eight-game streak where he received 20 or more carries between Weeks 6 and 13. He's still the only running back you'll want from this team in fantasy but as always, his ceiling will be limited due to the way Newton is used as a goal-line vulture as evidenced by J-Stew's six rushing touchdowns compared to Newton's 10 in 2015. Stewart is currently a Round 5 pick, going ahead of players with more upside like
Jeremy Hill and
Melvin Gordon. If Stewart were to miss time, which he's been known to do,
Fozzy Whittaker and
Cameron Artis-Payne would likely split the workload. The backups in Carolina are best left on the waiver wire.
Chicago Bears:
Projected starter: 1. Jeremy Langford
Backups: 2. Ka'Deem Carey; 3. Jacquizz Rodgers; 4.
Jordan Howard
2016 Outlook: From what we've seen in the preseason, the primary back job in Chicago seems like
Jeremy Langford's to lose. He's worked in the most with the
Bears' first-team offense and received some valuable red-zone opportunities. Ka'deem Carey, Jacquizz Rodgers and
Jordan Howard will likely go undrafted in most leagues. Despite Howard's size, he has struggled to make a splash as a reliable goal-line option. Since earlier in the spring, Langford's ADP has plummeted into a more reasonable Round 7 range. There is a chance that Chicago's offense is just plain inefficient, so tread with caution when looking to select Langford. He's no more than an RB3 option until we see more from him during the regular season. Carey and Rodgers may rotate in, but their volume will not be enough to warrant a fantasy roster spot.
Cincinnati Bengals:
Projected starter: 1. Jeremy Hill
Backups: 2. Giovani Bernard; 3. Rex Burkhead; 4.
Cedric Peerman
2016 Outlook: Over the past two seasons, no running back duo in the NFL has been more productive than
Jeremy Hill and
Giovani Bernard. The Cincinnati tandem ranks first in combined carries (767), rush yards (3,328), rushing touchdowns (27) and scrimmage yards (4,443) since 2014. And while both backs have received similar volume in that span -- Hill has averaged 15.2 touches per game while Bernard has averaged 14.3 -- Hill gets the nod as the better fantasy asset due to his nose for the end zone with 21 total touchdowns compared to Bernard's nine. In fact, Hill leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (20) since he entered the league in 2014. If you were one of those fantasy owners who got burned by Hill last year, it makes sense if you're looking elsewhere for running back production. But he's been slipping in drafts, has had a promising preseason and looks like a more confident and decisive runner. At this point, he's a huge value with fringe RB1 upside. For fantasy owners looking to find mid-round value backs with safe floors, Bernard should be your first option. His 1,200 scrimmage yards last year helped him become a consistent weekly play as a flex option. However, he only scored two touchdowns, the lowest of his career. He's bound to find the end zone a few more times this season, and with a lack of other targets in the passing game, is likely to see plenty of targets as a receiver. He's not a goal-line back but the
Bengals have gone to him in longer-yardage red zone situations and he's made the most of those opportunities.
Cleveland Browns:
Projected starter: 1. Isaiah Crowell
Backups: 2. Duke Johnson; 3. Raheem Mostert; 4. Terrell Watson
2016 Outlook: We haven't gained much clarity this preseason in terms of the
Browns backfield split between
Isaiah Crowell and
Duke Johnson. It's likely going to shape up the way we thought it would all offseason -- Crowell is the early-down banger and goal-line back, while Johnson works in on passing downs and may be used on the outside as a receiver. Both Johnson and Crowell come as value picks this season with Round 8 and Round 10 ADPs, respectively, in standard formats. Johnson has more upside thanks to his passing game prowess but he
lacks the toughness as a between-the-tackles runner that Crowell possesses. There's almost zero risk in adding Crowell in double-digit rounds. If he falters early on, Cleveland could give Johnson a shot as a three-down back, but Johnson's ceiling in standard formats is lowered unless that happens.