2016 Fantasy Wide Receiver Projections for ALL 32 NFL Teams:
Opportunity is the name of the game in
fantasy football. Talent matters, of course, but we want players who see a healthy volume of targets and touches to anchor our lineups, especially in daily fantasy. Every week in the second season of the "Opportunity Report," we'll look at all the passing targets for every NFL team and the percentage each player owns. Franchise will handle the backfield touches section this year and his season preview
is already published.
Prior to the Week 1 kickoff, we'll look at the passing distribution from 2015 and decipher what might change in the target share for 2016.
Arizona Cardinals
Larry Fitzgerald: 26.4% target share|145 targets|109 catches|1,215 yards|9 TDs
John Brown: 18.4% target share|101 targets|65 catches|1,003 yards|7 TDs
Michael Floyd: 16.2% target share| 89 targets|52 catches|849 yarsds|6 TDs
David Johnson: 10.4% target share|57 targets|36 catches|457 yards|4 TDs
Jermaine Gresham: 5.8% target share|32 targets|18 catches|223 yards| 1 TD
The
Cardinals boast one of the NFL's strongest pass-catching corps, especially when you include
David Johnson. Their top three receivers and Johnson accounted for 71.4 percent of
Carson Palmer's passing targets in 2015. Expect that to at least hold, if not increase in 2016 with all four fully integrated into the game plan for 16 weeks. The tight end hasn't been a fixture in Bruce Arians' offenses in Arizona and that figures to be the case once again this year. You can fully expect
David Johnson's share of the targets to increase. He owned a 16 percent share in five games he started at the end of last year, giving him a tremendous weekly floor projection.
The tricky part of this passing game will be projecting the target distribution for the three wideouts on a week-to-week and season-long basis. With all three of the receivers and Johnson demanding targets, it is hard to imagine any receiver seeing 25 percent or more of the team targets. From Weeks 13 to 17 when all four of those players were healthy and fully integrated into the offense,
Michael Floyd owned the highest share with 23 percent despite playing fewer snaps than
Larry Fitzgerald (19 percent) and
John Brown (21 percent). The way Fitzgerald was used and the volume he lost during that stretch makes him a
risky pick at his ADP. However, all three of these receivers will be candidates to finish in the top-10 weekly and it will come down to game-by-game matchups in projecting their outlooks.
Atlanta Falcons
Julio Jones: 32.9% target share|203 targets|136 catches|1,871 yards|8 TDs
Devonta Freeman: 15.7% target share|97 targets|73 catches|578 yards|3 TDs
Jacob Tamme: 13.1% target share|81 targets|59 catches|657 yarsds|1 TD
Roddy White: 11.3% target share|70 targets|43 catches|506 yards|1 TD
Leonard Hankerson: 7.5% target share|46 targets|26 catches|327 yards| 3 TDs
Julio Jones shouldn't see much if any of his massive share of the team targets number decrease. He will still push to finish among the league leaders in that category. However, Atlanta's target distribution should lead us to be excited about
Mohamed Sanu.
Roddy White and
Leonard Hankerson combined for 116 targets last season and neither are on the roster heading into 2016. Hankerson accumulated his 46 targets in just eight games with Atlanta before getting cut, putting him on a 92 season-end pace.
The
Falcons paid big money to acquire Sanu's services in free agency, so whether you like the deal or not, they clearly have big plans for him. When Sanu saw 98 targets in 2014 with
A.J. Green banged up, he finished as the WR30 in fantasy. We also know he has the ability to put up numbers if anything were to happen to
Julio Jones and he would inherit a massive target load in that scenario. Sanu averaged 95 yards and a whopping 18 PPR points in the four games Green missed during the 2014 season. On pure opportunity-based reasons, Sanu makes for an excellent, unsexy, but safe late-round sleeper.
Baltimore Ravens
Kamar Aiken: 19% target share|127 targets|75 catches|944 yards|5 TDs
Steve Smith: 10.9% target share|73 targets|46 catches|670 yards|3 TDs
Javorious Allen: 9.3% target share|62 targets|45 catches|353 yards|2 TDs
Kyle Juszczyk: 8.4% target share|56 targets|41 catches|321 yards|4 TDs
Chris Givens: 7.9% target share|53 targets|19 catches|346 yards|1 TD
Baltimore's season-end target distribution underscores what a disaster this offense became after injuries struck. Look no further than the fact that running back Buck Allen and fullback
Kyle Juszczyk finished in the top four most targeted players.
Steve Smith owned a 23 percent share of the team targets in the first eight weeks and was on a 140-plus season-end pace. Unless he makes a miraculous comeback, he could see almost a 50 percent reduction in that number.
Kamar Aiken is the
most consistent of the other Baltimore receivers, but projecting him for 140 targets seems rich. However, he should clear 120 on an offense run by Marc Trestman that finishes in the top-16 in pass attempts annually.
Buffalo Bills
Sammy Watkins: 20.8% target share|96 targets|60 catches|1,047 yards|9 TDs
Robert Woods: 17.3% target share|80 targets|47 catches|552 yards|3 TDs
Charles Clay: 16.7% target share|77 targets|51 catches|528 yards|3 TDs
Chris Hogan: 12.8% target share|59 targets|36 catches|450 yards|2 TDs
LeSean McCoy: 10.8% target share|50 targets|32 catches|292 yards|2 TDs
The
Bills ranked 31st in pass attempts last year, which skews the percentage of team target rates for all of these players. The only fantasy relevant receiver on a weekly basis is
Sammy Watkins, who owned a whopping 32 percent of the team targets from Week 9 on last year. Expect that market share to hold going forward after Watkins utterly dominated in the second half of 2015. Watkins is
a complete route-runner but the
Bills love to use him as a deep threat, and
Tyrod Taylor had the third-highest average depth of aimed throw last season. Watkins' injury history is troubling but he's healthy after an offseason foot injury and has WR1 upside at a modest third-round asking price.
Carolina Panthers
Greg Olsen: 25.1% target share|124 targets|77 catches|1,104 yards|7 TDs
Ted Ginn: 19.6% target share|97 targets|44 catches|739 yards|10 TDs
Devin Funchess: 12.7% target share|63 targets|31 catches|473 yards|5 TDs
Corey Brown: 10.9% target share|54 targets|31 catches|447 yards|4 TDs
Jerricho Cotchery: 10.9% target share|54 targets|39 catches|485 yards|3 TDs
Kelvin Benjamin is the wild card here as his return will certainly shake up this distribution. There is almost no chance he sees 140-plus targets again as the
Panthers threw the ball more in his rookie year than any other with
Cam Newton under center (still just 19th most in the NFL), but the question is whether other players eat into his market share. Benjamin has
Cam Newton's eye and owned a 26 percent share of the targets as a rookie and
Greg Olsen has 120-plus targets each of the last two years. Even in the over-inflated year of volume two years ago, the No. 2 receiver (Jerricho Cotchery) saw just 78 targets go his way.
Even if Benjamin dips down to 22 percent of the team targets, there is a lack of opportunity for other players. Therefore, it is hard to project
Devin Funchess for a breakout season. Making matters cloudier,
Ted Ginn still ran as the team's No. 2 wideout in the preseason. He won't see anywhere near the 97 targets he got last year, but he will still matter in this rotation. For Funchess to matter in fantasy, one of Benjamin or Olsen has to vastly underperform their ADP. Those scenarios are plausible, however, which makes Funchess a fine speculative grab in the late rounds. With more options than ever in this offense and the volume still in short supply, it's hard to find good reasons to take
Kelvin Benjamin (4.01) or
Greg Olsen (5.05) at their current ADPs.
Chicago Bears
Alshon Jeffery: 18.1% target share|94 targets|54 catches|807 yards|4 TDs
Martellus Bennett: 15.4% target share|80 targets|53 catches|439 yards|3 TDs
Matt Forte: 11.2% target share|58 targets|44 catches|389 yards|3 TDs
Marquess Wilson: 9.8% target share|51 targets|28 catches|464 yards|1 TD
Eddie Royal: 9.6% target share|50 targets|37 catches|238 yards|1 TD
In the nine games he played last season,
Alshon Jeffery averaged a whopping 31 percent of the targets from
Jay Cutler. When he's on the field Jeffery is as much of a target hog as there is in the NFL. Clearly, his hamstring issues keep him off the Tier 1 among wide receivers, but it is hard to not love early third-round ADP with the opportunity before him. Figuring
Kevin White into this equation is tricky, especially if
Zach Miller assumes the vast majority of
Martellus Bennett's vacated 80 targets. The
Bears finished just 26th in the NFL in pass attempts last year and there's just not a ton of volume for White to absorb unless he proves too good right off the bat.
Cincinnati Bengals
A.J. Green: 26.7% target share|132 targets|86 catches|1,297 yards|10 TDs
Marvin Jones: 20.8% target share|103 targets|65 catches|816 yards|4 TDs
Tyler Eifert: 14.9% target share|74 targets|52 catches|615 yards|13 TDs
Giovani Bernard: 13.3% target share|66 targets|49 catches|472 yards|0 TDs
Mohamed Sanu: 9.9% target share|49 targets|33 catches|394 yards|0 TDs
When both Jones and Sanu departed in free agency they took 30.7 percent of the team's 2015 passing targets with them. Last season was the first year where
A.J. Green played 16 games and saw less than 30 percent of the team's targets. That will almost certainly reverse course this year and Green could get back to the 160 to 180 target level he held early in his career. In the two seasons he held that kind of volume he finished as the WR4 and WR5. Even if rookie
Tyler Boyd and veteran addition
Brandon LaFell make strong contributions there is almost no way Green sees the minuscule volume he received last year. We could easily be sitting on a career year for the elite receiver.
Cleveland Browns
Travis Benjamin: 20.8% target share|125 targets|68 catches|966 yards|5 TDs
Gary Barnidge: 20.8% target share|125 targets|79 catches|1,043 yards|9 TDs
Brian Hartline: 12.8% target share|77 targets|46 catches|523 yards|2 TDs
Duke Johnson: 12.3% target share|74 targets|61 catches|534 yards|2 TDs
Taylor Gabriel: 8% target share|48 targets|28 catches|241 yards|0 TDs
What once seemed like a clear funnel offense between just rookie
Corey Coleman (presumably assuming
Travis Benjamin's departed volume) and
Gary Barnidge now looks a bit more crowded with the emergence of
Terrelle Pryor as a deep threat and
Josh Gordon's return. Gordon (after his four-game suspension) and Coleman could now split up the departed targets of Benjamin and
Brian Hartline, putting them in line for around 16 to 18 percent of the team targets apiece. This might make them both highly volatile plays on a weekly basis.
The real losers here might be holdovers
Gary Barnidge and
Duke Johnson, who looked like great high floor plays prior to the additions of talent at receiver. It's hard to imagine Johnson seeing any more than the 12.8 percent of the team targets he did last season. Barnidge could easily lose about 20 targets from his season-end total from 2015. Coleman and Gordon are far too talented to not demand the majority looks and even Pryor brings legit big-play appeal. Both Johnson and Barnidge look like major shy-away candidates at their seventh-round ADPs.
Dallas Cowboys
Jason Witten: 20% target share|104 targets|77 catches|713 yards|3 TDs
Terrance Williams: 17.9% target share|93 targets|52 catches|840 yards|3 TDs
Cole Beasley: 14.5% target share|75 targets|52 catches|536 yards|5 TDs
Dez Bryant: 13.9% target share|72 targets|31 catches|401 yards|3 TDs
Darren McFadden: 10.2% target share|53 targets|40 catches|328 yards|0 TDs
It's hard to take much from Dallas' 2015 distribution since
Dez Bryant was compromised for the majority of the season. Back in 2014 he owned a 29 percent share of the team targets with
Jason Witten coming in second at 19 percent before
Terrance Williams with 14 percent. It would make sense for that to be the way it unfolds in 2016. The question is what kind of quality those passes will be with
Dak Prescott under center to start the year.
Denver Broncos
Demaryius Thomas: 29.4% target share|177 targets|105 catches|1,304 yards|3 TDs
Emmanuel Sanders: 22.6% target share|136 targets|76 catches|1,135 yards|6 TDs
Owen Daniels: 12.8% target share|77 targets|46 catches|517 yards|3 TDs
C.J. Anderson: 13.9% target share|36 targets|25 catches|183 yards|0 TDs
Ronnie Hillman: 5.8% target share|35 targets|24 catches|111 yards|0 TDs
Denver is one of the more highly concentrated passing offenses in the NFL.
Demaryius Thomas and
Emmanuel Sanders handled 52 percent of the team's looks in 2015. For that reason, it's hard to fret too much about their questionable options behind center as volume can
save wideouts from poor quarterback play. The
Broncos might run fewer plays and throw less overall in 2016 than they did in Peyton Manning's final year but that ownership of targets makes the receiver duo safe floor plays at their ADP.
Virgil Green might figure into this equation as he ran exclusively with the first-team in the preseason and looked good. 12.8 percent of the team targets was a low mark last year for a Gary Kubiak tight end historically.
Detroit Lions
Calvin Johnson: 24% target share|149 targets|88 catches|1,214 yards|9 TDs
Golden Tate: 20.6% target share|128 targets|90 catches|813 yards|6 TDs
Theo Riddick: 15.9% target share|99 targets|80 catches|537 yards|5 TDs
Eric Ebron: 11.3% target share|70 targets|47 catches|537 yards|5 TDs
Lance Moore: 6.9% target share|43 targets|29 catches|337 yards|4 TDs
With 24 percent of the team targets gone to retirement with Calvin Johnson, there is a ton of opportunity up for grab in Detroit.
Golden Tate could see more than the 128 targets he saw last season, for sure, but it's
Marvin Jones who should absorb the vast majority of them. Jones is a
prime breakout candidate this year and volume is a huge reason why.
Green Bay Packers
Randall Cobb: 22.8% target share|129 targets|79 catches|829 yards|6 TDs
James Jones: 17.5% target share|99 targets|50 catches|890 yards|8 TDs
Davante Adams: 16.6% target share|94 targets|50 catches|483 yards|1 TDs
Richard Rodgers: 15% target share|85 targets|58 catches|510 yards|8 TDs
James Starks: 9.4% target share|53 targets|43 catches|392 yards|3 TDs
Jordy Nelson and
Randall Cobb combined for 51 percent of the team targets in 2014 when both were fully healthy and operational. Those two will once again lead this team in the passing pecking order and both should finish as top-15 receivers across all formats. The interesting option in this pass attack is
Jared Cook.
If you project Cook for a 16.5 percent (the average of Jermichael Finley's two best seasons) level of market share on the
Packers' 565 targets from last season that equals out to 93 targets. Just using Cook's rate stats (57 percent catch rate, 3.3 touchdown rate, 12.8 yards per reception) over the course of his career on that workload you get 53 catches, 678 yards and three touchdowns for a total of 85.8 standard fantasy points. That would have been the TE13 last season.
Houston Texans
DeAndre Hopkins: 31.3% target share|192 targets|111 catches|1,521 yards|11 TDs
Nate Washington: 15.3% target share|94 targets|47 catches|658 yards|4 TDs
Cecil Shorts: 12.2% target share|75 targets|42 catches|484 yards|2 TDs
Ryan Griffin: 5.5% target share|34 targets|20 catches|251 yards|2 TDs
Keith Mumphrey: 5.2% target share|32 targets|14 catches|129 yards|0 TDs
The Houston wide receiver corps is much more crowded this season than in 2015. Both
Will Fuller and
Braxton Miller are just rookies but looked fantastic running with the first-team offense in the preseason. The team sunk draft capital into those two this year and will make use of them.
Jaelen Strong also had a positive offseason and was a training camp star. For all those reasons and the addition of
Lamar Miller with a commitment to the ground game, it's hard to imagine any scenario where
DeAndre Hopkins sees 190-plus targets for a second consecutive season. With that in mind, he's a tough sell as a top-10 pick in fantasy leagues.
Indianapolis Colts
T.Y. Hilton: 22.2% target share|134 targets|69 catches|1,124 yards|5 TDs
Donte Moncrief: 17.4% target share|105 targets|64 catches|733 yards|6 TDs
Coby Fleener: 13.9% target share|84 targets|54 catches|491 yards|3 TDs
Andre Johnson: 12.7% target share|77 targets|41 catches|503 yards|4 TDs
Frank Gore: 9.6% target share|58 targets|34 catches|267 yards|1 TD
Donte Moncrief was on a 123-target season-end pace in games Luck played, with
T.Y. Hilton maintaining a 148-target pace. That was with the now departed
Coby Fleener and
Andre Johnson absorbing 5.83 and 5.57 targets per game, respectively. Hilton and Moncrief combined for a 42 percent share of Luck's Week 1 through Week 9 targets. With the departure of the aforementioned two players and a severe lack of depth in the pass-catching corps beyond
Phillip Dorsett and
Dwayne Allen, the Moncrief and Hilton duo could push closer to a 50-percent share.
The
Colts look like a candidate to lead the NFL in pass attempts, which will buoy the stock of all players involved. While the offense should be highly concentrated among the top two wideouts, Dorsett and Allen offer fine late-round appeal even if they only carve out small target shares.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Allen Robinson: 25.1% target share|151 targets|80 catches|1,400 yards|14 TDs
Allen Hurns: 17.5% target share|105 targets|64 catches|1,031 yards|10 TDs
Julius Thomas: 13.3% target share|80 targets|46 catches|455 yards|5 TDs
T.J. Yeldon: 7.7% target share|46 targets|36 catches|279 yards|1 TDs
Bryan Walters: 7.5% target share|45 targets|32 catches|368 yards|1 TD
There is little reason to imagine the
Jaguars' target distribution experiences too much turnover. If
Julius Thomas plays 16 games he will see a bump from 13 percent of the team targets, but expect him to eat into players like
Bryan Walters or even
Allen Hurns, not
Allen Robinson. No one has been able to manage an explanation as to why the
Jaguars would suddenly throw less to their star No. 1 wideout just for the sake of it. Robinson should be a lock for 25 percent or more of the team targets once again as their clear best player on offense. The question is more around their overall passing volume, which ranked 12th in the NFL in attempts last year. If the
Jaguars improve as a defensive team and are more competitive, then they could conceivably throw less in 2016.
Kansas City Chiefs
Jeremy Maclin: 26.8% target share|124 targets|87 catches|1,088 yards|8 TDs
Travis Kelce: 22.2% target share|103 targets|72 catches|875 yards|5 TDs
Albert Wilson: 12.3% target share|57 targets|35 catches|451 yards|2 TDs
Charcandrick West: 7.3% target share|34 targets|20 catches|214 yards|1 TDs
Chris Conley: 6.7% target share|31 targets|17 catches|199 yards|1 TD
Jeremy Maclin remains one of the best values in fantasy coming in with a strong 26 percent of the team targets in 15 games. The
Chiefs will be without
Justin Houston for at least the first portion of the season.
Alex Smith averaged 20 more passing yards per game when Houston missed time in 2013. Maclin has more upside than given credit for at his ADP. While
Albert Wilson and
Chris Conley are skilled and intriguing, there just isn't enough volume behind Maclin and
Travis Kelce for them to ascend in fantasy.
Los Angeles Rams
Tavon Austin: 18.6% target share|87 targets|52 catches|473 yards|5 TDs
Jared Cook: 16% target share|75 targets|39 catches|481 yards|0 TDs
Kenny Britt: 15.4% target share|72 targets|36 catches|681 yards|3 TDs
Benny Cunningham: 7.7% target share|36 targets|26 catches|250 yards|0 TDs
Lance Kendricks: 7.7% target share|36 targets|25 catches|245 yards|2 TDs
Beyond
Tavon Austin, we aren't interested in this passing game for fantasy. However, one interesting note is that
Jared Cook did take 75 targets with him to Green Bay. With that in mind, there will be some weeks when
Lance Kendricks, or
Tyler Higbee if he can usurp the job, matter in fantasy. They are at least worth monitoring.
Miami Dolphins
Jarvis Landry: 28.6% target share|166 targets|110 catches|1,157 yards|4 TDs
Jordan Cameron: 12% target share|70 targets|35 catches|386 yards|3 TDs
Kenny Stills: 10.8% target share|63 targets|27 catches|440 yards|2 TDs
Rishard Matthews: 10.5% target share|61 targets|43 catches|662 yards|4 TDs
Lamar Miller: 9.8% target share|57 targets|47 catches|397 yards|2 TDs
Rishard Matthews' departure opened up room for an outside receiver to ascend in this offense with 61 targets gone. Based on preseason and every bit of noise from the offseason that will be
Kenny Stills, not
DeVante Parker, at least to start the season. Neither one is worth anything more than an end-of-draft flier in typical redraft leagues. The question is whether
Jarvis Landry loses any portion of the 28.6 percent of the team targets he saw last year. The offense needs an outside threat to emerge, but
Ryan Tannehill just seems far too hardwired to look for Landry in the short areas of the field.
Minnesota Vikings
Stefon Diggs: 19% target share|84 targets|52 catches|720 yards|4 TDs
Kyle Rudolph: 16.5% target share|73 targets|49 catches|495 yards|5 TDs
Mike Wallace: 16.3% target share|72 targets|39 catches|473 yards|2 TDs
Jarius Wright: 11.3% target share|50 targets|34 catches|442 yards|0 TDs
Adrian Peterson: 8.1% target share|36 targets|30 catches|222 yards|0 TDs
Losing
Teddy Bridgewater hurts this team's passing efficiency, but if their backup quarterbacks hurt the team their overall volume could go up if they play in more catch-up situations. With
Laquon Treadwell starting off slow, this aerial unit will flow through
Stefon Diggs. Even with a backup quarterback under center he can breakout and repay his cheap ADP if he gets to at least 22 percent of the team targets. Diggs was on a 103-target pace after Week 4 last season and was on a run-heavy team. If the game scripts flip in Minnesota with poor quarterback play, it could absolutely benefit Diggs.
New England Patriots
Rob Gronkowski: 19.2% target share|120 targets|72 catches|1,176 yards|11 TDs
Julian Edelman: 14.1% target share|88 targets|61 catches|692 yards|7 TDs
Danny Amendola: 13.9% target share|87 targets|65 catches|648 yards|3 TDs
Brandon LaFell: 11.9% target share|74 targets|37 catches|515 yards|0 TDs
James White: 8.7% target share|54 targets|40 catches|410 yards|4 TDs
There isn't a ton of room for newcomers in New England's offense.
Martellus Bennett figures to see anywhere between 70 to 80 targets while taking
Brandon LaFell's targets and eating into
Danny Amendola's workload a significant amount. Other than that, we know where this offense flows.
New Orleans Saints
Brandin Cooks: 19.5% target share|129 targets|84 catches|1,128 yards|9 TDs
Ben Watson: 16.6% target share|110 targets|74 catches|825 yards|6 TDs
Willie Snead: 15.2% target share|101 targets|69 catches|984 yards|3 TDs
Marques Colston: 10.1% target share|67 targets|45 catches|520 yards|4 TDs
Mark Ingram: 9% target share|60 targets|50 catches|405 yards|0 TDs
With
Coby Fleener and
Michael Thomas now in town and
Willie Snead establishing himself as a tremendous asset to the offense, it's hard to project
Brandin Cooks for any more targets than he saw last season. Now, 130-ish targets from
Drew Brees in this offense are worth more than that volume level in other systems. However, taking a receiver in the top-15 at the position with that type of workload is a bit discomforting. Already a non-factor in the red zone, Cooks will need to continue to score touchdowns via long plays. He can certainly do that as one of the NFL's best deep threats, however, that will lead to major volatility in his scoring. Even during his torrid second-half stretch, Cooks still failed to clear 40 yards in three of his last eight games.
New York Giants
Odell Beckham: 25.7% target share|158 targets|96 catches|1,450 yards|13 TDs
Rueben Randle: 14.6% target share|90 targets|57 catches|797 yards|8 TDs
Shane Vereen: 13.2% target share|81 targets|59 catches|494 yards|4 TDs
Will Tye: 10.1% target share|62 targets|42 catches|464 yards|3 TDs
Dwayne Harris: 9.3% target share|57 targets|36 catches|396 yards|4 TDs
With
Sterling Shepard set to absorb
Rueben Randle's targets and some of
Dwayne Harris' (and likely be more efficient with them), he is a clear sleeper in the mid-rounds. He's a threat for 80 catches as a rookie. However, there is still room for
Odell Beckham to absorb even more volume and potentially push 180 targets for the first time in his career. The lack of a third receiver or established tight end leaves that possibility open. If he clears that target level, Beckham could score close to 20 touchdowns and be the highest scoring receiver in fantasy.
New York Jets
Brandon Marshall: 28.7% target share|173 targets|109 catches|1,502 yards|14 TDs
Eric Decker: 21.9% target share|132 targets|80 catches|1,027 yards|12 TDs
Bilal Powell: 10.5% target share|63 targets|47 catches|388 yards|2 TDs
Quincy Enunwa: 7.6% target share|46 targets|22 catches|315 yards|0 TDs
Chris Ivory: 6.1% target share|37 targets|30 catches|217 yards|1 TD
With
Brandon Marshall and
Eric Decker established as target hogs this offense flows through them. The team loves to spread the field but lacks a competent third receiver or established tight end. The
Jets should once again have two running backs finish in the top-five most targeted players on the team.
Matt Forte and
Bilal Powell should be on the field at the same time often and will both repay their ADPs.
Oakland Raiders
Michael Crabtree: 24.3% target share|146 targets|85 catches|922 yards|9 TDs
Amari Cooper: 21.6% target share|130 targets|72 catches|1,070 yards|6 TDs
Seth Roberts: 9.1% target share|55 targets|32 catches|480 yards|5 TDs
Latavius Murray: 8.8% target share|53 targets|41 catches|232 yards|0 TDs
Clive Walford: 8.3% target share|50 targets|28 catches|329 yards|3 TDs
Clive Walford is a popular sleeper pick at tight end, but it's hard to see where the targets are going to come from.
Michael Crabtree and
Amari Cooper are one of the best duos in the NFL, so Walford won't take volume from them. He's best left on the waiver wire for now.
Amari Cooper is a player many are ready to tout as an explosive breakout pick but he's already priced in that range with an ADP of 2.10. In order for that to happen, he needs to flip target shares with
Michael Crabtree. The veteran receiver should hand over the target leader role to Cooper, but his volume will not drastically reduce. He's too important and reliable. For that reason, it makes their ADP discrepancy of almost six whole rounds look quite confusing.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jordan Matthews: 20.3% target share|126 targets|85 catches|997 yards|8 TDs
Zach Ertz: 18.1% target share|112 targets|75 catches|853 yards|2 TDs
Darren Sproles: 13.4% target share|83 targets|55 catches|388 yards|1 TD
DeMarco Murray: 8.9% target share|55 targets|44 catches|322 yards|1 TD
Nelson Agholor: 7.1% target share|44 targets|23 catches|283 yards|1 TD
The distribution here should not change much.
Jordan Matthews and
Zach Ertz will pace this team in targets. However, the fast pace of Chip Kelly is gone so while the percentage stats might hold, there may be less raw targets to go around in 2016.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Antonio Brown: 33% target share|193 targets|136 catches|1,834 yards|10 TDs
Martavis Bryant: 15.8% target share|92 targets|50 catches|765 yards|2 TDs
Heath Miller: 13.9% target share|81 targets|60 catches|535 yards|2 TDs
Markus Wheaton: 13.5% target share|79 targets|44 catches|749 yards|5 TDs
DeAngelo Williams: 8% target share|47 targets|40 catches|367 yards|0 TDs
There is not nearly as much opportunity to go around in this offense as the public projects unless you're bold enough to assume
Antonio Brown loses targets.
Sammie Coates failed in his shot to usurp
Markus Wheaton for the No. 2 role and is once again a backup. Meanwhile, former undrafted receiver Eli Rodgers ran exclusively with the first-team as a slot receiver. He could certainly assume some of
Martavis Bryant's vacated targets along with Wheaton. In certain matchups, he will be a fine flier in daily fantasy.
San Diego Chargers
Danny Woodhead: 16.1% target share|106 targets|80 catches|755 yards|6 TDs
Keenan Allen: 13.5% target share|89 targets|67 catches|725 yards|4 TDs
Antonio Gates: 12.9% target share|85 targets|56 catches|630 yards|5 TDs
Malcom Floyd: 10.3% target share|68 targets|30 catches|561 yards|3 TDs
Steve Johnson: 9.9% target share|65 targets|45 catches|497 yards|3 TDs
It's incredible that
Keenan Allen played in just eight games but still held such a high share of the
Chargers passing targets. Allen could threaten to lead the NFL in catches with such a locked-in share of the targets.
Steve Johnson's injury also makes it clear that deep threat
Travis Benjamin will push for at least a 15 percent share of the team targets. He will be a tough start every week, but is someone who can make your week when you find the right matchup.
San Francisco 49ers
Anquan Boldin: 21.1% target share|111 targets|69 catches|789 yards|4 TDs
Torrey Smith: 11.8% target share|62 targets|33 catches|663 yards|4 TDs
Quinton Patten: 10.9% target share|57 targets|30 catches|394 yards|1 TD
Vance McDonald: 8.8% target share|46 targets|30 catches|326 yards|3 TDs
Shaun Draughn: 6.1% target share|32 targets|25 catches|175 yards|0 TDs
Torrey Smith is the only player we can draft from this offense after
Bruce Ellington went down with an injury. Even if the passes are terrible, he'll see 25 percent of the team targets.
Anquan Boldin took 111 targets out the door and both
DeSean Jackson and
Jeremy Maclin cleared 120 targets under Chip Kelly. He'll be tough to trust on a weekly basis but is still a value at his modest ADP.
Seattle Seahawks
Doug Baldwin: 21.8% target share|103 targets|78 catches|1,069 yards|14 TDs
Jimmy Graham: 15.7% target share|74 targets|48 catches|605 yards|2 TDs
Tyler Lockett: 14.6% target share|69 targets|51 catches|664 yards|6 TDs
Jermaine Kearse: 14.4% target share|68 targets|49 catches|685 yards|5 TDs
Fred Jackson: 8.7% target share|41 targets|32 catches|257 yards|2 TDs
The big question with this offense is how much volume can
Tyler Lockett assume.
Doug Baldwin is locked in as the top target and should push 20 percent once again. Lockett will need to dig into
Jermaine Kearse's target totals and his preseason uses shows that Kearse is still the guy in two receiver sets because of his run blocking prowess. Lockett can still break out this season but he'll need to do so on closer to 90 targets rather than pushing for 110.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Evans: 28.2% target share|148 targets|74 catches|1,206 yards|3 TDs
Charles Sims: 13.3% target share|70 targets|51 catches|561 yards|4 TDs
Vincent Jackson: 11.8% target share|62 targets|33 catches|543 yards|3 TDs
Doug Martin: 8.4% target share|44 targets|33 catches|271 yards|1 TD
Adam Humphries: 7.6% target share|40 targets|27 catches|260 yards|1 TD
Mike Evans is going to put it all together this season. Even if
Vincent Jackson returns to form with more health and eats into Evans' 28 percent share from last season, he looks lights out in the preseason. Evans improved as a route runner last year but saw regression in the touchdown department. If those two even out this year, he could easily crack the top-eight wide receiver rankings. Evans looks like the type of receiver an offense should flow through in his preseason action this year.
Tennessee Titans
Delanie Walker: 24.5% target share|133 targets|94 catches|1,088 yards|6 TDs
Harry Douglas: 13.3% target share|72 targets|36 catches|411 yards|2 TDs
Dorial Green-Beckham: 12.3% target share|67 targets|32 catches|549 yards|4 TDs
Kendall Wright: 11% target share|60 targets|36 catches|408 yards|3 TDs
Anthony Fasano: 7.7% target share|42 targets|26 catches|289 yards|2 TDs
Despite being all the rage of the preseason, and for good reason,
Tajae Sharpe will need to eat into some of Delanie walker's 2015 targets to have every-week viability in fantasy. That is entirely possible and the
Titans receiving corps shouldn't be so spread out this year as none of them cleared 15 percent of the team targets. Sharpe has a connection with Mariota and is a pristine route-runner already. The team does want to run the ball, though, and already ranked a lowly 22nd in pass attempts last year. If they crater to the bottom five, none of these pass catchers might get enough work to be fantasy relevant.
Washington Redskins
Jordan Reed: 20.5% target share|114 targets|87 catches|952 yards|11 TDs
Pierre Garcon: 20% target share|111 targets|72 catches|777 yards|6 TDs
Jamison Crowder: 14.1% target share|78 targets|59 catches|604 yards|2 TDs
DeSean Jackson: 8.8% target share|49 targets|30 catches|528 yards|4 TDs
Chris Thompson: 8.6% target share|48 targets|35 catches|240 yards|2 TDs
With
Josh Doctson on the shelf for much of the offseason, it looks like he won't be a factor early in the season. As a result,
Pierre Garcon is essentially free in drafts and looks like a stone-cold lock for 100 targets in a pass-heavy offense.
