Training camp report date: Rookies and veterans, July 25.
Training camp location: St. Norbert College, De Pere, Wisconsin.
Offseason in a nutshell: This section can typically be left blank in the Ted Thompson era, but we're not the next people in line to give the Packers general manager flak about his window-shopping-only tendencies in free agency. The approach works, and it's smart. The interesting part? Buzz this offseason suggested that Green Bay was planning on being more active than usual if the actual value lined up a bit better with the perceived value -- especially when it came to adding someone who could serve as a third or fourth option for Aaron Rodgers. One solution, apparently, was tight end Jared Cook. Cook, 29, might end up having the highest ratio of production to salary out of all the free agents this offseason after inking a team-friendly deal for one year and $2.75 million (plus almost another million dollars in available incentives). Rodgers has his most versatile tight end option since Jermichael Finley. If, in his return from the ACL tear that robbed him of his 2015 season, Jordy Nelson is 80 percent of the receiver he was in 2014, I don't think we'll be spending our time pondering the demise of the Mike McCarthy era anymore.
Player to watch: Pass rusher Datone Jones. Jones benefitted from a hurried move to situational stand-up outside linebacker last year and was thrilled when Mike McCarthy confirmed that the team would use him in a similar spot this year. He even has a six-pack now. If he even marginally improves the Packers' pass rush this season, the potential lineup alterations could reignite some of the more creative looks we've seen over the years from defensive coordinator Dom Capers -- especially if Jones remains heavy enough to rush on the inside, as well (which we expect). Reading the tea leaves, their draft picks in 2016 (specifically Kyler Fackrell and Dean Lowry) suggest the team might be looking to break in more of these Swiss Army Knife-type rushers.
THREE BURNING QUESTIONS:
1. Will there be a noticeable focus on defensive toughness?
This might induce eye rolls (and for good reason), but this is the time of year when coaching staffs search high and low for motivation, especially when it comes to established veterans. The Packers are well aware that the Vikings just assembled the most expensive offensive line in football with the express purpose of running over the rest of the NFC North. While that isn't new information for the Packers, we wonder if it will be a rallying cry of sorts for a defense that is still very dependent on Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers for its identity and production.
2. Will everyone relax about Eddie Lacy's weight now?
Lacy is a smart person. He acknowledges that he had great success during his first two seasons (the best rookie and sophomore seasons for a tailback in Packers history) and thought he could keep the same eating and exercising habits during that time and still be just as good. But as people get older, habits need to change. Lacy knows that now. There are about 500 other successful NFL players throughout history who will recount a finding religion moment when it comes to grilled chicken, fish, brutal workouts and lots of water, and they all got credit for prolonging their career. After having his weight issue blasted into the headlines, Lacy will get the chance to put all doubts to rest during camp.
3. Does Jared Abbrederis benefit the most from Mike McCarthy's minicamp moves?
As the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted last month, Abbrederis received significantly more reps in camp after veterans like Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson were excused, and he might've made the most of his opportunity. Watching the Packers during the playoffs last year, it became crystal clear how much more the system values being on time and on target over individual ability (see: James Jones against the Redskins) and neither Rodgers nor McCarthy are in the position of turning down dependable hands.
Way-too-early season prediction: Ask us on Sept. 19, the morning after an epic Sunday Nighter between the Packers and Vikings. In a lot of ways, I think the Packers' success depends on how quickly Minnesota's offensive linemen can gel, and if they stay healthy. Green Bay is built to win another 10 or 11 games this year, but how significant will the hurdles in their way be?
Rob Gronkowski is good at football. But is he a fantasy first-rounder?
I'm going to get some tweets about this. I can just feel it. Look, I'm not suggesting that Gronk isn't the top tight end in fantasy football or that he's not going to be good this year. This is more about being aware of where you should target him in your drafts.
For the past couple of seasons, it's become damn near a reflex to start looking at Gronk with the final pick in the first round. In those seasons, it made plenty of sense to go with the guy who was light years better than anyone else at his position. But times have changed and that gap is starting to close. In 2014 Gronkowski averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game, more than two points better than the next best tight end. Last season, that gap fell to just one point.
Then there's the little matter of Gronk not having his normal quarterback for the first four games of the season. I'm confident that Jimmy Garoppolo is smart enough to look for his top pass-catcher in just about any situation. But if you think the Patriots offense is going to run anywhere near as efficiently as when Tom Brady is calling the shots, you're nuts.
I'm going to get some tweets about this. I can just feel it. Look, I'm not suggesting that Gronk isn't the top tight end in fantasy football or that he's not going to be good this year. This is more about being aware of where you should target him in your drafts.
For the past couple of seasons, it's become damn near a reflex to start looking at Gronk with the final pick in the first round. In those seasons, it made plenty of sense to go with the guy who was light years better than anyone else at his position. But times have changed and that gap is starting to close. In 2014 Gronkowski averaged 12.3 fantasy points per game, more than two points better than the next best tight end. Last season, that gap fell to just one point.
Then there's the little matter of Gronk not having his normal quarterback for the first four games of the season. I'm confident that Jimmy Garoppolo is smart enough to look for his top pass-catcher in just about any situation. But if you think the Patriots offense is going to run anywhere near as efficiently as when Tom Brady is calling the shots, you're nuts.
DeAndre Hopkins leads overvalued fantasy receivers.
There's no denying DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. A supreme talent whose technical mastery allows him to get every ounce out of his physical ability, Hopkins dominated last season. In just his third NFL season, Hopkins amassed 111 receptions and 1,521 yards to finish as the WR4 overall in PPR leagues.
There's no logical argument that paints Hopkins as anything but a superstar-level player. However, he is overvalued as a fantasy commodity this year should his consensus first-round ADP hold up.
Fantasy owners have a tendency to only remember either the beginning or end of the season when perusing end of season rankings. Yet, the NFL season is often multiple stories woven together into the quilt that forms a player's final fantasy numbers. It's important to contextualize each layer of Hopkins' 2015 story when projecting him for 2016.
During the first eight weeks of the regular season, Hopkins was a target monster. He averaged 14 targets per game and never received less than 11 in any contest. That volume helped him overcome a rotating quarterback carousel to average 8.25 catches, 108 yards and .75 touchdowns per game. Hopkins was the WR2 overall in standard fantasy leagues during that stretch.
However, after the Texans Week 9 bye, Hopkins' torrid pace naturally slowed down. He never saw more than 12 targets in any of his final eight games and averaged a more typical 10 per contest. His per game averages slipped to 5.6 catches, 81 yards and .63 touchdowns.
Normally there's a ton of noise in the data when breaking a season into two halves, due to the small sample size provided by the NFL season. In this case though, there may be a bit more benefit to the exercise than normal because we have a clear cause to the effect.
The Texans found a winning formula down the stretch with a strong 6-2 finish to their 2015 season after starting 3-5. Bill O'Brien's offenses have always favored a run-heavy approach since he entered the NFL. His units finished first and fifth in terms of run attempts in his first two seasons. They were forced to veer off their preferred approach in the first half of the season when their underperforming defense and dysfunctional offense put them in trailing positions all too often.
O'Brien's offenses always like to play with tempo, they've ranked eighth and first in plays run over his two seasons. But that was drastically inflated during their first eight games in 2015. The Texans ran 74 plays-per-game during that stretch, which was 10 more than the league average of 64 for the season. O'Brien also had to skew more pass-heavy than he prefers while the team played in so many negative game scripts averaging 5.6 passing plays per drive to just 2.6 rushing.
As mentioned, the winds in Houston changed after the bye week. The defense improved and the team started winning games. Consequently that returned the balance that O'Brien prefers to the play calling. In the final eight games of the season the Texans ran 3.59 rush plays per drive to 4.14 pass plays per drive. Their pace also slowed down to something closer to the league average running 66 plays per game.
As fantasy drafters, it should bring some concern that his numbers took a direct hit when the Texans started winning games. The Texans' offseason moves--taking two wide receivers on the first two days of the draft, paying a running back in free agency and talking up Jaelen Strong--are further proof they don't want Hopkins seeing the volume he did in 2015. He'll be hard pressed to crack 190 targets again even if he does maintain his elite-level 31 percent market share.
Unlike other regression candidates the community seems to insist we focus on, like Allen Robinson or Brandon Marshall, we already have on-field evidence of the conditions for a Hopkins slowdown. Yet, that already witnessed reality is not priced into his current ADP in the slightest. Some will argue that the new face at quarterback will elevate Hopkins, but Brock Osweiler is a conservative passer who performed worse than Brian Hoyer in predictive statistical categories like touchdown rate, interception rate and air yards per pass attempt. At best, it's a lateral move from the behind center play Hopkins got late in the season.
DeAndre Hopkins is a tremendous NFL player and the pinnacle of greatness among the crowded crop of young wide receivers in the league right now.
However, he should not be the consensus fourth wide receiver off the board, as he is on ADP data across the industry. When you take into account talent and project volume, A.J. Green makes a far more convincing case to be that player.
There's little doubt that Hopkins finishes as a WR1 in fantasy firmly within the top-10. However, I have him in my second tier among receivers at WR9 overall in my latest rankings. That tier spans from WR5 to WR11 and Hopkins could certainly land anywhere in that group. He won't be a bust in fantasy this season, not even close, but the community ought to approach Hopkins' redraft stock with more caution than they are at this point.
There's no denying DeAndre Hopkins is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. A supreme talent whose technical mastery allows him to get every ounce out of his physical ability, Hopkins dominated last season. In just his third NFL season, Hopkins amassed 111 receptions and 1,521 yards to finish as the WR4 overall in PPR leagues.
There's no logical argument that paints Hopkins as anything but a superstar-level player. However, he is overvalued as a fantasy commodity this year should his consensus first-round ADP hold up.
Fantasy owners have a tendency to only remember either the beginning or end of the season when perusing end of season rankings. Yet, the NFL season is often multiple stories woven together into the quilt that forms a player's final fantasy numbers. It's important to contextualize each layer of Hopkins' 2015 story when projecting him for 2016.
During the first eight weeks of the regular season, Hopkins was a target monster. He averaged 14 targets per game and never received less than 11 in any contest. That volume helped him overcome a rotating quarterback carousel to average 8.25 catches, 108 yards and .75 touchdowns per game. Hopkins was the WR2 overall in standard fantasy leagues during that stretch.
However, after the Texans Week 9 bye, Hopkins' torrid pace naturally slowed down. He never saw more than 12 targets in any of his final eight games and averaged a more typical 10 per contest. His per game averages slipped to 5.6 catches, 81 yards and .63 touchdowns.
Normally there's a ton of noise in the data when breaking a season into two halves, due to the small sample size provided by the NFL season. In this case though, there may be a bit more benefit to the exercise than normal because we have a clear cause to the effect.
The Texans found a winning formula down the stretch with a strong 6-2 finish to their 2015 season after starting 3-5. Bill O'Brien's offenses have always favored a run-heavy approach since he entered the NFL. His units finished first and fifth in terms of run attempts in his first two seasons. They were forced to veer off their preferred approach in the first half of the season when their underperforming defense and dysfunctional offense put them in trailing positions all too often.
O'Brien's offenses always like to play with tempo, they've ranked eighth and first in plays run over his two seasons. But that was drastically inflated during their first eight games in 2015. The Texans ran 74 plays-per-game during that stretch, which was 10 more than the league average of 64 for the season. O'Brien also had to skew more pass-heavy than he prefers while the team played in so many negative game scripts averaging 5.6 passing plays per drive to just 2.6 rushing.
As mentioned, the winds in Houston changed after the bye week. The defense improved and the team started winning games. Consequently that returned the balance that O'Brien prefers to the play calling. In the final eight games of the season the Texans ran 3.59 rush plays per drive to 4.14 pass plays per drive. Their pace also slowed down to something closer to the league average running 66 plays per game.
As fantasy drafters, it should bring some concern that his numbers took a direct hit when the Texans started winning games. The Texans' offseason moves--taking two wide receivers on the first two days of the draft, paying a running back in free agency and talking up Jaelen Strong--are further proof they don't want Hopkins seeing the volume he did in 2015. He'll be hard pressed to crack 190 targets again even if he does maintain his elite-level 31 percent market share.
Unlike other regression candidates the community seems to insist we focus on, like Allen Robinson or Brandon Marshall, we already have on-field evidence of the conditions for a Hopkins slowdown. Yet, that already witnessed reality is not priced into his current ADP in the slightest. Some will argue that the new face at quarterback will elevate Hopkins, but Brock Osweiler is a conservative passer who performed worse than Brian Hoyer in predictive statistical categories like touchdown rate, interception rate and air yards per pass attempt. At best, it's a lateral move from the behind center play Hopkins got late in the season.
DeAndre Hopkins is a tremendous NFL player and the pinnacle of greatness among the crowded crop of young wide receivers in the league right now.
However, he should not be the consensus fourth wide receiver off the board, as he is on ADP data across the industry. When you take into account talent and project volume, A.J. Green makes a far more convincing case to be that player.
There's little doubt that Hopkins finishes as a WR1 in fantasy firmly within the top-10. However, I have him in my second tier among receivers at WR9 overall in my latest rankings. That tier spans from WR5 to WR11 and Hopkins could certainly land anywhere in that group. He won't be a bust in fantasy this season, not even close, but the community ought to approach Hopkins' redraft stock with more caution than they are at this point.
Allen Hurns...Jaguars.....Fantasy News.
The community is all abuzz about the Jaguars passing offense regressing with a projected improved defense and more emphasis on the ground game. Either way, repeating 35 touchdowns will be tough for Blake Bortles, so there's good reason for the thought.
Several analysts took aim at Allen Robinson all spring as premier regression candidate. Now, I might not be the picture of objectivity with Robinson, but he's the type of star-level player we should be betting on. While his rookie year Reception Perception was fantastic and foretold the massive season he would have in 2015, he got even better in his second season. He improved his success rate vs. man coverage from 71.7 to 73.6, his nine route success rate from 45.3 to 59.2 and his contested catch conversion rate from 64.3 to 75 percent.
He might not catch 14 touchdowns again this season, but Allen Robinson is without a doubt the type of player who could threaten for 90 to 100 catches at any point in his career. Robinson himself even mentioned to me that he will need to be even more efficient this year if the passing volume decreases this year. He's right up there with the best talents at the position and is well worth his current second-round ADP.
While still a solid player and a strong No. 2 option, Allen Hurns might not be able to withstand the decrease in passing volume. Hurns owned just a 17 percent share of the team's targets in 2015. If the run game becomes more of a focus and his market share remains the same, his targets could dip down into the low 90 to high 80 range from the 105 he saw last season.
There's also the matter of him sustaining his wildly high touchdown per target rate of 9.5. Hurns will have a tough time repeating his 10 touchdowns if Bortles truly does throw less inside the 20-yard line this season. Hurns had 15 percent (13) of the team's red zone targets last year and snared five touchdowns. However, that came with Julius Thomas hobbled and less involved than projected. Thomas was the player named by Robinson when I asked him to name someone who will take a step forward this year that we're overlooking in the media.
Right now there is no discount for any potential regression baked into Hurns' ADP. He goes off the board in the mid-fifth round as the WR26. That's a steep price to pay for a player who has several negative statistical red lights flashing around his projections. Paying a seventh or eighth round price for the talented Hurns makes complete sense, but he rarely falls to that range. Stick it out until that range of your draft and you'll find players with more intrigue and upside than paying the current sticker price for Hurns.
The community is all abuzz about the Jaguars passing offense regressing with a projected improved defense and more emphasis on the ground game. Either way, repeating 35 touchdowns will be tough for Blake Bortles, so there's good reason for the thought.
Several analysts took aim at Allen Robinson all spring as premier regression candidate. Now, I might not be the picture of objectivity with Robinson, but he's the type of star-level player we should be betting on. While his rookie year Reception Perception was fantastic and foretold the massive season he would have in 2015, he got even better in his second season. He improved his success rate vs. man coverage from 71.7 to 73.6, his nine route success rate from 45.3 to 59.2 and his contested catch conversion rate from 64.3 to 75 percent.
He might not catch 14 touchdowns again this season, but Allen Robinson is without a doubt the type of player who could threaten for 90 to 100 catches at any point in his career. Robinson himself even mentioned to me that he will need to be even more efficient this year if the passing volume decreases this year. He's right up there with the best talents at the position and is well worth his current second-round ADP.
While still a solid player and a strong No. 2 option, Allen Hurns might not be able to withstand the decrease in passing volume. Hurns owned just a 17 percent share of the team's targets in 2015. If the run game becomes more of a focus and his market share remains the same, his targets could dip down into the low 90 to high 80 range from the 105 he saw last season.
There's also the matter of him sustaining his wildly high touchdown per target rate of 9.5. Hurns will have a tough time repeating his 10 touchdowns if Bortles truly does throw less inside the 20-yard line this season. Hurns had 15 percent (13) of the team's red zone targets last year and snared five touchdowns. However, that came with Julius Thomas hobbled and less involved than projected. Thomas was the player named by Robinson when I asked him to name someone who will take a step forward this year that we're overlooking in the media.
Right now there is no discount for any potential regression baked into Hurns' ADP. He goes off the board in the mid-fifth round as the WR26. That's a steep price to pay for a player who has several negative statistical red lights flashing around his projections. Paying a seventh or eighth round price for the talented Hurns makes complete sense, but he rarely falls to that range. Stick it out until that range of your draft and you'll find players with more intrigue and upside than paying the current sticker price for Hurns.
Larry Fitzgerald...Cardinals.....Fantasy News.
The fantasy community spends much discussion on which Arizona Cardinals wide receiver we should target. John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald both finished inside the top-24 in fantasy points per game and Michael Floyd went over 100 yards receiving in five of his last eight games in 2015. Carson Palmer was the NFL's most efficient deep passer last year and Bruce Arians' offense makes all tides rise for the skill position players.
John Brown is one of my favorite receivers in the league and an elite downfield threat who can get open at all levels of the field. Michael Floyd might just be cracking his ceiling as he enters a contract year. Both of these ascending young wideouts are on upward trajectories heading into 2016. Their veteran teammate, however, is the only overvalued one of the trio based on his production when the offense was at full capacity down the stretch last season.
Larry Fitzgerald was the only stalwart last season among the Cardinals pass catchers when it came to health. Floyd struggled coming back from a hand injury early in the season, and Brown had several hamstring flare-ups in the midway point. Consequently, Fitzgerald accumulated the bulk of his fantasy scoring (70.9 percent) in his first nine games of the season. The receiving corps wasn't truly at full-force until the final third portion of the season. That time period also brought in another variable that hurt Fitzgerald's statistical output, the introduction of David Johnson into the offense.
The inclusion of Brown, Floyd and especially Johnson slashed a deep cut into Fitzgerald's productivity. His fellow wide receivers are the downfield threats in Arians' aggressive deep shot offense. When the long-time offensive coach arrived as the headman in Arizona, he asked Fitzgerald to move into a specialized slot receiver role. It's a short-area, chain-moving position that Arians had Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne play in years past and helps complement all the deep passing. It's an important spot for their offense, but it craters his fantasy scoring, especially in standard leagues.
In this position, Fitzgerald's aDOT (average depth of target) fell to 5.8. The only wide receiver to hold an aDOT that low over the course of the season was Golden Tate, who finished as the WR34 in standard leagues.
Across fantasy formats, but especially in PPR, we typically shouldn't turn our nose up at slot receivers in high-powered offenses even if their targets come in such short areas. However, the presence of David Johnson is a massive course-altering variable in the equation for Fitzgerald.
Coming out of college, David Johnson was regarded as an abnormally tremendous receiver for a running back. He showed off those electric skills as a rookie averaging over 12 yards per reception and running pristine routes out of the backfield.
Because Johnson is such a unique receiving entity at the running back position, his role tends to intersect with Larry Fitzgerald's. Johnson doesn't just get dump-offs out of the backfield or run screens like most pass-catching backs do. He runs traditional routes further down the field like the slant and drag. His aDOT of 3.1 is abnormally high for a running back. Only two full-time backs (Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin) cracked two yards, while typical receiving backs like Theo Riddick and Danny Woodhead finished with aDOTs under one yard.
Johnson's demand of targets in the short game directly crosses into Fitzgerald's workload and caused his target share to dip below 20 percent from Weeks 13 to 17. Additionally, it sapped his red zone opportunities. The veteran receiver was one of the best players inside the 20-yard line in the early portions of the season, but finished behind John Brown (seven) in terms of red zone targets during the final five games. Fitzgerald finished with just five red zone targets in those weeks, not so coincidently the exact same amount as David Johnson.
Larry Fitzgerald currently goes off the board in the mid-sixth round as the WR30, three spots ahead of John Brown who quite clearly has a higher ceiling and floor. It's hard to justify that asking price for the veteran receiver considering the minimal upside role he holds in the Cardinals offense when all four of their top pass-catchers are in the fold. Fitzgerald is still a great player for Arizona and an important piece to their playoff hopes. However, his current position in the pecking order and assignment won't offer the same punch in fantasy leagues going forward.
The fantasy community spends much discussion on which Arizona Cardinals wide receiver we should target. John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald both finished inside the top-24 in fantasy points per game and Michael Floyd went over 100 yards receiving in five of his last eight games in 2015. Carson Palmer was the NFL's most efficient deep passer last year and Bruce Arians' offense makes all tides rise for the skill position players.
John Brown is one of my favorite receivers in the league and an elite downfield threat who can get open at all levels of the field. Michael Floyd might just be cracking his ceiling as he enters a contract year. Both of these ascending young wideouts are on upward trajectories heading into 2016. Their veteran teammate, however, is the only overvalued one of the trio based on his production when the offense was at full capacity down the stretch last season.
Larry Fitzgerald was the only stalwart last season among the Cardinals pass catchers when it came to health. Floyd struggled coming back from a hand injury early in the season, and Brown had several hamstring flare-ups in the midway point. Consequently, Fitzgerald accumulated the bulk of his fantasy scoring (70.9 percent) in his first nine games of the season. The receiving corps wasn't truly at full-force until the final third portion of the season. That time period also brought in another variable that hurt Fitzgerald's statistical output, the introduction of David Johnson into the offense.
The inclusion of Brown, Floyd and especially Johnson slashed a deep cut into Fitzgerald's productivity. His fellow wide receivers are the downfield threats in Arians' aggressive deep shot offense. When the long-time offensive coach arrived as the headman in Arizona, he asked Fitzgerald to move into a specialized slot receiver role. It's a short-area, chain-moving position that Arians had Hines Ward and Reggie Wayne play in years past and helps complement all the deep passing. It's an important spot for their offense, but it craters his fantasy scoring, especially in standard leagues.
In this position, Fitzgerald's aDOT (average depth of target) fell to 5.8. The only wide receiver to hold an aDOT that low over the course of the season was Golden Tate, who finished as the WR34 in standard leagues.
Across fantasy formats, but especially in PPR, we typically shouldn't turn our nose up at slot receivers in high-powered offenses even if their targets come in such short areas. However, the presence of David Johnson is a massive course-altering variable in the equation for Fitzgerald.
Coming out of college, David Johnson was regarded as an abnormally tremendous receiver for a running back. He showed off those electric skills as a rookie averaging over 12 yards per reception and running pristine routes out of the backfield.
Because Johnson is such a unique receiving entity at the running back position, his role tends to intersect with Larry Fitzgerald's. Johnson doesn't just get dump-offs out of the backfield or run screens like most pass-catching backs do. He runs traditional routes further down the field like the slant and drag. His aDOT of 3.1 is abnormally high for a running back. Only two full-time backs (Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin) cracked two yards, while typical receiving backs like Theo Riddick and Danny Woodhead finished with aDOTs under one yard.
Johnson's demand of targets in the short game directly crosses into Fitzgerald's workload and caused his target share to dip below 20 percent from Weeks 13 to 17. Additionally, it sapped his red zone opportunities. The veteran receiver was one of the best players inside the 20-yard line in the early portions of the season, but finished behind John Brown (seven) in terms of red zone targets during the final five games. Fitzgerald finished with just five red zone targets in those weeks, not so coincidently the exact same amount as David Johnson.
Larry Fitzgerald currently goes off the board in the mid-sixth round as the WR30, three spots ahead of John Brown who quite clearly has a higher ceiling and floor. It's hard to justify that asking price for the veteran receiver considering the minimal upside role he holds in the Cardinals offense when all four of their top pass-catchers are in the fold. Fitzgerald is still a great player for Arizona and an important piece to their playoff hopes. However, his current position in the pecking order and assignment won't offer the same punch in fantasy leagues going forward.
Steve Smith Jr....Ravens.....Fantasy News.
Given the information we have at our disposal at this time, Steve Smith's ninth-round ADP is completely unjustifiable. Smith was on his way to another dynamic season at age 36 averaging 95.7 yards per game last year, but went down with a torn Achilles after seven contests. The veteran wideout called off his retirement and will attempt to play this season.
However, Smith himself even said "I don't know when I'm coming back," which is the best anyone can say right now. He also suggested he's only back to reach 1,000 career catches saying, "I may catch that [39th pass], in my uniform, get in my car and go home." None of that sounds like a player who is about to score buckets of fantasy points this year.
At age 37, even Steve Smith knows the long odds he faces to post a massively productive statistical season after rehabbing a torn Achilles. It's hard to bet against the legendary Smith, who broke the odds at every step of his career, but everything is pointing to a quiet end to his career from a numbers perspective. Fantasy owners should be focused on players like Kamar Aiken, who proved more than capable in filling in for Smith last year. Outside of a flier in about six rounds after where he currently goes in drafts, Smith should not be in your draft plans.
Given the information we have at our disposal at this time, Steve Smith's ninth-round ADP is completely unjustifiable. Smith was on his way to another dynamic season at age 36 averaging 95.7 yards per game last year, but went down with a torn Achilles after seven contests. The veteran wideout called off his retirement and will attempt to play this season.
However, Smith himself even said "I don't know when I'm coming back," which is the best anyone can say right now. He also suggested he's only back to reach 1,000 career catches saying, "I may catch that [39th pass], in my uniform, get in my car and go home." None of that sounds like a player who is about to score buckets of fantasy points this year.
At age 37, even Steve Smith knows the long odds he faces to post a massively productive statistical season after rehabbing a torn Achilles. It's hard to bet against the legendary Smith, who broke the odds at every step of his career, but everything is pointing to a quiet end to his career from a numbers perspective. Fantasy owners should be focused on players like Kamar Aiken, who proved more than capable in filling in for Smith last year. Outside of a flier in about six rounds after where he currently goes in drafts, Smith should not be in your draft plans.
Training camp report dates: Rookies July 27, veterans July 29.
Training camp location: University of California-Irvine, Irvine, Calif.
Offseason in a nutshell: The Rams essentially announced to the rest of the NFL that they are one player away from competing in perhaps the best division in football. After lauding their success in the Robert Griffin III draft train robbery, the Rams essentially reversed course, mortgaging the future for the No. 1 pick in this year's NFL Draft. Jared Goff is a work in progress and is going to spend the season making the type of mistakes rookie quarterbacks make. At the moment, the team is unsure if he is their opening day starter. What does all this mean, exactly? The disaster scenario is staring us down: Hard Knocks will be in town to film training camp. An owner interested in rapidly building (or restoring) a fan base wants his underperforming coaching staff to come out of the gates fast and the teams the Rams will have to face a total of six times a year all got better this summer. Did the Rams?
Player to watch: Tight end Tyler Higbee -- Free agency picked away at the Rams' roster a bit, leaving the team to try and solve their remaining holes via the draft-and-pray scenario. Higbee, a troubled product out of Western Kentucky, may end up battling as many off-the-field issues as on-the-field hurdles this August, but the Rams are in need of a reliable intermediate target. Rookie quarterbacks love and depend on tight ends, especially early in their careers, and the Rams just watched Jared Cook head north to Green Bay.
THREE BURNING QUESTIONS:
1. How good is this secondary, and will we know by the end of camp?
The Rams let go of Janoris Jenkins and Rodney McLeod this offseason along with other defensive staples like Chris Long and James Laurinaitis. The secondary is now rolling with Lamarcus Joyner in the slot and (probably) E.J. Gaines and Coty Sensabaugh opposite Trumaine Johnson. They were pick-heavy in mini camp, but will need to figure out a way to make sure they can contend with the likes of Arizona and Seattle -- a team that will be passing much more in 2016. In practice, it will be interesting to see if the coaching staff does anything to negate the lack of a full workout given that they'll be breaking in a rookie quarterback and working against the same Kenny Britt/Tavon Austin tandem once again. There is a sense among those close to the Rams that this is a chance to show off depth and let some of their unheralded stars emerge while they spend the smart money elsewhere.
2. Can they placate -- and consistently use -- all these "dynamic" weapons?
I would love to have Tavon Austin and Pharoh Cooper on my team, but I would only do so if I were positive I could get them the ball on a regular basis. Austin had his best year in 2015, setting career highs in targets, catches yards, rushing attempts, rushing yards and touchdowns but that took three very frustrating seasons and a handful of offensive coordinators. Cooper is being billed to us as a slightly taller and more practical alternative who may end up functioning better in the slot. On paper? Great. But let’s see it in camp first.
3. Will the players show up in shape and healthy?
Vincent Bonsignore of the Los Angeles Daily News brought up an interesting point. The Rams were shut out of their Oxnard, Calif. camp at the end of June and won't have another facility until after the beginning of training camp. That means a drop-off spot where people can lift, run, work out, use the cold tub and ice up. Not that these athletes wouldn't have trainers across the country throwing gym memberships their way, but is there something to be said about the lack of a true home base? Players are fickle and depend on routine. One tweaked hamstring could have a significant effect on the regular season.
Way-too-early season prediction: Seeing is believing with Goff. He is talented, smart and has a great arm, but the Bear Raid offense at Cal doesn't seem to translate well. There will be growing pains and, to me, five or six wins makes a lot of sense.
Blake Bortles leads overvalued fantasy quarterbacks.
Blake Bortles was a fantasy sensation last season, finishing as the QB4 in standard leagues, averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game. Considering his undrafted or waiver wire price tag, Bortles won plenty of fantasy owners championships. However, he succeeded in spite of himself in 2015, and the Jaguars' improvements this offseason speak to a team that's looking to rely a little less on the right arm of northeast Florida's favorite bro.
Part of Bortles' statistical success came as a result of his own deficiencies as a quarterback. He led the NFL in interceptions in 2015 (18), often forcing the Jaguars into pass-heavy, negative game scripts. Per Joe Redemann of Number Fire, this is why 16.67 percent of Bortles' big-play completions (20-plus yards) came in the fourth quarter of games where the Jaguars were down at least two scores. Yes, #garbagepointsstillcount, but they are also entirely fluky and tough to rely upon as a predictive measure. Furthermore, the Jaguars defense is one of the most improved units of the offseason, which could flip the script on the Jaguars offensive play-calling.
Last year, the Jaguars lost first-round pick Dante Fowler on the first day of rookie mini-camp to a torn ACL, hindering their pass rush all season long. He's back to full health now, and along with Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, and Prince Amukamara gives the Jags an extreme defensive makeover. This unit allowed the second-most points the league last year, and that simply won't be the case in 2016, which should reduce Bortles' attempts.
Finally, the Jaguars were extremely pass-happy in the red zone in 2015, with Bortles slinging the rock 51 times inside the 10-yard line alone! (Kudos to Rotoworld's Rich Hribar for that nugget.) To remedy that play-calling discrepancy, the team signed Chris Ivory to a five-year, $32.5-million contract. Ivory will split work with T.J. Yeldon, but is the prototypical power back that head coach Gus Bradley desires -- especially in the red zone. If Bortles passes less near the end zone, his touchdown total will inevitably drop as well.
All this isn't to say Bortles will be a terrible pick this year, but jumping on him in the 10th round over later-round options with similar, if not higher, ceilings is why the Central Florida product makes this list.
Blake Bortles was a fantasy sensation last season, finishing as the QB4 in standard leagues, averaging 19.8 fantasy points per game. Considering his undrafted or waiver wire price tag, Bortles won plenty of fantasy owners championships. However, he succeeded in spite of himself in 2015, and the Jaguars' improvements this offseason speak to a team that's looking to rely a little less on the right arm of northeast Florida's favorite bro.
Part of Bortles' statistical success came as a result of his own deficiencies as a quarterback. He led the NFL in interceptions in 2015 (18), often forcing the Jaguars into pass-heavy, negative game scripts. Per Joe Redemann of Number Fire, this is why 16.67 percent of Bortles' big-play completions (20-plus yards) came in the fourth quarter of games where the Jaguars were down at least two scores. Yes, #garbagepointsstillcount, but they are also entirely fluky and tough to rely upon as a predictive measure. Furthermore, the Jaguars defense is one of the most improved units of the offseason, which could flip the script on the Jaguars offensive play-calling.
Last year, the Jaguars lost first-round pick Dante Fowler on the first day of rookie mini-camp to a torn ACL, hindering their pass rush all season long. He's back to full health now, and along with Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Malik Jackson, Tashaun Gipson, and Prince Amukamara gives the Jags an extreme defensive makeover. This unit allowed the second-most points the league last year, and that simply won't be the case in 2016, which should reduce Bortles' attempts.
Finally, the Jaguars were extremely pass-happy in the red zone in 2015, with Bortles slinging the rock 51 times inside the 10-yard line alone! (Kudos to Rotoworld's Rich Hribar for that nugget.) To remedy that play-calling discrepancy, the team signed Chris Ivory to a five-year, $32.5-million contract. Ivory will split work with T.J. Yeldon, but is the prototypical power back that head coach Gus Bradley desires -- especially in the red zone. If Bortles passes less near the end zone, his touchdown total will inevitably drop as well.
All this isn't to say Bortles will be a terrible pick this year, but jumping on him in the 10th round over later-round options with similar, if not higher, ceilings is why the Central Florida product makes this list.
Tony Romo...Cowboys.....Fantasy News.
No quarterback had worse luck than Tony Romo last year. I mean, the guy broke the same collarbone twice for crying out loud and lost his starting wide receiver for part of the few games he was healthy. However, despite that injury risk and Romo's age (36), he is being drafted as a borderline starting quarterback in 2016. That's simply too rich for my blood.
When pulling the trigger on Romo in the early double digit rounds, many will cite his epic (and hyper-efficient) 2014 campaign where with a stud running back (DeMarco Murray) and a healthy Dez Bryant, Romo finished as the QB9 despite ranking 23rd in attempts. Romo has Ezekiel Elliott now and a healthy Dez -- why can't he repeat that success? Well, for starters, Romo threw touchdowns at an historic clip that year, leading the league with a 7.8 touchdown percentage.
To illustrate how insane that number is, there have only been four instances in the last 10 years of a quarterback finishing the year with a higher touchdown percentage. Three came in MVP seasons from Hall-of-Fame passers -- Tom Brady (8.7, 2007), Aaron Rodgers (9.0, 2011), and Peyton Manning (8.3, 2013). The other? Well, that was the inexplicable Nick Foles 27-touchdown, two-interception year in 2013.
If Robert Stack (rest in peace) were still soliciting Unsolved Mysteries, I'm sure that Foles season would be prominently featured in an episode. Anyway, I digress. It is almost a certainty that Romo will fail to throw touchdowns at as great of a clip in 2016. JJ Zachariason (mentioned above) ran the numbers on touchdown rates this offseason in a great article for NumberFire. Of the 11 passers to post a touchdown rate greater than seven percent since 2010, not one posted a better touchdown rate the following year, and the average drop was 2.45 percentage points.
Now, let's bring this back to Romo in 2016. The Cowboys lean more on the run now than in the past, with Romo's attempts slowly declining. So if we take his average attempts per year from 2014-15 (485) and multiply it by his reduced touchdown rate -- assuming the 2.45 percent drop -- of .0535, or 5.35 percent, Romo projects to finish the year with around 26 passing touchowns. That's eight fewer than he had in 2014. Now, this isn't exact, but it helps paint the picture of why Romo is a bit overvalued in the 10th or 11th round. Factoring in the realization that Romo hasn't crossed the 4,000-yard mark in either of his last two full-ish seasons, and it becomes even clearer that passing on Romo at his current asking price is the right move.
No quarterback had worse luck than Tony Romo last year. I mean, the guy broke the same collarbone twice for crying out loud and lost his starting wide receiver for part of the few games he was healthy. However, despite that injury risk and Romo's age (36), he is being drafted as a borderline starting quarterback in 2016. That's simply too rich for my blood.
When pulling the trigger on Romo in the early double digit rounds, many will cite his epic (and hyper-efficient) 2014 campaign where with a stud running back (DeMarco Murray) and a healthy Dez Bryant, Romo finished as the QB9 despite ranking 23rd in attempts. Romo has Ezekiel Elliott now and a healthy Dez -- why can't he repeat that success? Well, for starters, Romo threw touchdowns at an historic clip that year, leading the league with a 7.8 touchdown percentage.
To illustrate how insane that number is, there have only been four instances in the last 10 years of a quarterback finishing the year with a higher touchdown percentage. Three came in MVP seasons from Hall-of-Fame passers -- Tom Brady (8.7, 2007), Aaron Rodgers (9.0, 2011), and Peyton Manning (8.3, 2013). The other? Well, that was the inexplicable Nick Foles 27-touchdown, two-interception year in 2013.
If Robert Stack (rest in peace) were still soliciting Unsolved Mysteries, I'm sure that Foles season would be prominently featured in an episode. Anyway, I digress. It is almost a certainty that Romo will fail to throw touchdowns at as great of a clip in 2016. JJ Zachariason (mentioned above) ran the numbers on touchdown rates this offseason in a great article for NumberFire. Of the 11 passers to post a touchdown rate greater than seven percent since 2010, not one posted a better touchdown rate the following year, and the average drop was 2.45 percentage points.
Now, let's bring this back to Romo in 2016. The Cowboys lean more on the run now than in the past, with Romo's attempts slowly declining. So if we take his average attempts per year from 2014-15 (485) and multiply it by his reduced touchdown rate -- assuming the 2.45 percent drop -- of .0535, or 5.35 percent, Romo projects to finish the year with around 26 passing touchowns. That's eight fewer than he had in 2014. Now, this isn't exact, but it helps paint the picture of why Romo is a bit overvalued in the 10th or 11th round. Factoring in the realization that Romo hasn't crossed the 4,000-yard mark in either of his last two full-ish seasons, and it becomes even clearer that passing on Romo at his current asking price is the right move.
Tom Brady...Patriots.....Fantasy News.
With Tom Brady officially ending his crusade to reduce his punishment from the Deflategate scandal, it's time to stop reaching for him in drafts. He is almost assuredly (pending some sort of black magic, NFLPA legal miracle) missing the first four games of the season. Which means you not only have to draft a second quarterback (or stream the position) to cover those four weeks, but Brady is left as dead weight on your bench. That could be a valuable spot to replace an injured starter, or scoop up a high-upside player from waivers. And if you think you'll be fine for four weeks, think again. The list of starters injured in the first four weeks of 2015 includes DeSean Jackson, Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and Andre Ellington, just to name a few. And that doesn't even include Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin, who were both injured in August.
Brady's ADP should adjust as we approach August and fantasy season really kicks into gear, but as of right now he's being tremendously over-drafted. Sure, he will still be an elite passer when he returns and likely put up some great weeks down the stretch, but the opportunity cost of missing out on waiver wire players, or stashing a high-upside sleeper on your bench for those first four weeks (at least) is just too big. If Brady starts sinking into the double digit rounds, then it becomes more palatable to let him ride the pine for a bit. But when you could nab a player like Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Latavius Murray and Michael Floyd instead at Brady's current asking price, well, the decision becomes much clearer.
With Tom Brady officially ending his crusade to reduce his punishment from the Deflategate scandal, it's time to stop reaching for him in drafts. He is almost assuredly (pending some sort of black magic, NFLPA legal miracle) missing the first four games of the season. Which means you not only have to draft a second quarterback (or stream the position) to cover those four weeks, but Brady is left as dead weight on your bench. That could be a valuable spot to replace an injured starter, or scoop up a high-upside player from waivers. And if you think you'll be fine for four weeks, think again. The list of starters injured in the first four weeks of 2015 includes DeSean Jackson, Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch and Andre Ellington, just to name a few. And that doesn't even include Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin, who were both injured in August.
Brady's ADP should adjust as we approach August and fantasy season really kicks into gear, but as of right now he's being tremendously over-drafted. Sure, he will still be an elite passer when he returns and likely put up some great weeks down the stretch, but the opportunity cost of missing out on waiver wire players, or stashing a high-upside sleeper on your bench for those first four weeks (at least) is just too big. If Brady starts sinking into the double digit rounds, then it becomes more palatable to let him ride the pine for a bit. But when you could nab a player like Randall Cobb, T.Y. Hilton, Latavius Murray and Michael Floyd instead at Brady's current asking price, well, the decision becomes much clearer.
