"He was still Andre Johnson making plays."Impressive first practice for the vet:
88 back in action
Peyton and Payton.
Coach doesn't want to hear it.
Bust-a-Move: No need to worry about Randall Cobb.
Every season, we do our best to predict who the big sleepers and breakout candidates are going to be. Every season, we get a few of them wrong -- very wrong. But just because a certain player goes bust one year doesn't mean they'll be a bust forever. Welcome to "Bust-a-Move", where we're breaking down some of 2015's biggest fantasy football disappointments to determine if you can expect some stat sheet salvation in 2016.
About this same time last year, I was sitting in an Umami Burger on the Las Vegas Strip enjoying a burger and a tasty adult beverage. I looked up to one of the many TV screens showing a preseason game between the Packers and Steelers. But something was wrong. Jordy Nelson had just gone down with the dreaded non-contact injury.
Suddenly my beverage wasn't quite as tasty. Finding out that one of the top receivers in the game was suddenly lost for the season will do that to a man.
But I (and many others) rested a little easier in the knowledge that Randall Cobb could easily slide into the No. 1 role and provide a similar level of production. Eventually, we were all reminded that true knowledge is knowing that we know nothing. Cobb didn't give us Jordy-like production, so many of us had the sadz.
I went back to watch some of Cobb's 2015 games to see why we all had the sadz and whether that emotion would be our permanent state of being while watching Cobb play. But I won't give you any spoilers here in the intro.
What went wrong
Looking back on Cobb's numbers from 2015, he wasn't exactly bad. It's just that he wasn't great. His 829 receiving yards and six touchdowns weren't terribly off from his breakout season in 2012. The problem is that those numbers were nowhere near the monstrous totals he posted in 2014. We looked back on Cobb destroying his career highs with 91/1,287/12 and assumed that similar numbers were in the offing now that he'd become the de facto No. 1 option in the passing game. That's a lofty standard to live up to.
That's not to say that the only problem for Cobb last season was the pressure of elevated expectations. The Packers offense as a whole took a big hit when Nelson went down and it became readily apparent that the other players expected to step up in the offense weren't capable of doing so. James Jones was consistently inconsistent and old. Although the latter might have contributed to the former. (But that hoodie was great, amirite?) Davante Adams was ungood and Jeff Janis wasn't exactly Magellan with his routes. All of that forced Cobb into a larger role than he was intended to play and was capable of handling -- especially with all of the extra attention that came his way without Nelson making plays on the outside.
Oh ... and there was also the issue of Cobb playing through a shoulder injury for a notable part of the season. I'm no doctor, but having two working arms is always a benefit for a wide receiver at any level of football.
What must improve
I don't think it's an oversimplification to say that getting everyone back and healthy in the Packers lineup is going to be key to Cobb becoming a fantasy darling once again. We've seen how devastatingly efficient that group can be with everyone in their proper roles. Just getting the band back together could be enough to restore Cobb to legit WR2 status with WR1 upside.
The other part of Cobb's potential success will just be to maximize his on-field matchups each week. Lining up in the slot allowed Cobb to face off against plenty of linebackers and safeties, few of whom could stay with the elusive wideout on a consistent basis. By the way, if you want to be amazed, I recommend watching the Packers' Week 3 game last season and counting the number of times Cobb completely confounded Tyvon Branch and Jamell Fleming. It was enough to get NFL Media's Patrick Claybon to suggest that "No. 27 (Branch) should erase the server" with all of that week's video.
What we expect
Any reports of Randall Cobb's fantasy demise were greatly exaggerated. Unless there is a complete meltdown of the Packers passing game in 2016 -- which seems unlikely -- let's consider last year to be nothing more than a speed bump. On paper, this group looks like it will once again be a juggernaut and Cobb should eat heartily on a week-to-week basis as Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 option. By the way, I haven't even mentioned Jared Cook. If he can live up to even half of the hype and excitement he's generating, it's one more distraction to keep defenses from locking down too hard on Cobb.
Verdict: If Randall Cobb isn't a top 15 receiver this year then something has gone horribly wrong. I'm more than comfortable with his current fifth-round ADP and probably wouldn't hesitate to reach for him a round earlier. All is well in Green Bay again. Let us rejoice.
Every season, we do our best to predict who the big sleepers and breakout candidates are going to be. Every season, we get a few of them wrong -- very wrong. But just because a certain player goes bust one year doesn't mean they'll be a bust forever. Welcome to "Bust-a-Move", where we're breaking down some of 2015's biggest fantasy football disappointments to determine if you can expect some stat sheet salvation in 2016.
About this same time last year, I was sitting in an Umami Burger on the Las Vegas Strip enjoying a burger and a tasty adult beverage. I looked up to one of the many TV screens showing a preseason game between the Packers and Steelers. But something was wrong. Jordy Nelson had just gone down with the dreaded non-contact injury.
Suddenly my beverage wasn't quite as tasty. Finding out that one of the top receivers in the game was suddenly lost for the season will do that to a man.
But I (and many others) rested a little easier in the knowledge that Randall Cobb could easily slide into the No. 1 role and provide a similar level of production. Eventually, we were all reminded that true knowledge is knowing that we know nothing. Cobb didn't give us Jordy-like production, so many of us had the sadz.
I went back to watch some of Cobb's 2015 games to see why we all had the sadz and whether that emotion would be our permanent state of being while watching Cobb play. But I won't give you any spoilers here in the intro.
What went wrong
Looking back on Cobb's numbers from 2015, he wasn't exactly bad. It's just that he wasn't great. His 829 receiving yards and six touchdowns weren't terribly off from his breakout season in 2012. The problem is that those numbers were nowhere near the monstrous totals he posted in 2014. We looked back on Cobb destroying his career highs with 91/1,287/12 and assumed that similar numbers were in the offing now that he'd become the de facto No. 1 option in the passing game. That's a lofty standard to live up to.
That's not to say that the only problem for Cobb last season was the pressure of elevated expectations. The Packers offense as a whole took a big hit when Nelson went down and it became readily apparent that the other players expected to step up in the offense weren't capable of doing so. James Jones was consistently inconsistent and old. Although the latter might have contributed to the former. (But that hoodie was great, amirite?) Davante Adams was ungood and Jeff Janis wasn't exactly Magellan with his routes. All of that forced Cobb into a larger role than he was intended to play and was capable of handling -- especially with all of the extra attention that came his way without Nelson making plays on the outside.
Oh ... and there was also the issue of Cobb playing through a shoulder injury for a notable part of the season. I'm no doctor, but having two working arms is always a benefit for a wide receiver at any level of football.
What must improve
I don't think it's an oversimplification to say that getting everyone back and healthy in the Packers lineup is going to be key to Cobb becoming a fantasy darling once again. We've seen how devastatingly efficient that group can be with everyone in their proper roles. Just getting the band back together could be enough to restore Cobb to legit WR2 status with WR1 upside.
The other part of Cobb's potential success will just be to maximize his on-field matchups each week. Lining up in the slot allowed Cobb to face off against plenty of linebackers and safeties, few of whom could stay with the elusive wideout on a consistent basis. By the way, if you want to be amazed, I recommend watching the Packers' Week 3 game last season and counting the number of times Cobb completely confounded Tyvon Branch and Jamell Fleming. It was enough to get NFL Media's Patrick Claybon to suggest that "No. 27 (Branch) should erase the server" with all of that week's video.
What we expect
Any reports of Randall Cobb's fantasy demise were greatly exaggerated. Unless there is a complete meltdown of the Packers passing game in 2016 -- which seems unlikely -- let's consider last year to be nothing more than a speed bump. On paper, this group looks like it will once again be a juggernaut and Cobb should eat heartily on a week-to-week basis as Aaron Rodgers' No. 2 option. By the way, I haven't even mentioned Jared Cook. If he can live up to even half of the hype and excitement he's generating, it's one more distraction to keep defenses from locking down too hard on Cobb.
Verdict: If Randall Cobb isn't a top 15 receiver this year then something has gone horribly wrong. I'm more than comfortable with his current fifth-round ADP and probably wouldn't hesitate to reach for him a round earlier. All is well in Green Bay again. Let us rejoice.
The Chargers have a top-five NFL wide receiver corps.
Jamison Crowder made waves in late June when he asserted that Washington boasted the best receiver group in the NFL. Naturally, the second-year slot receiver's comments spawned discussion and rankings all throughout the football world.
It seemed that in the aftermath of the original Crowder comment all the talented receiver groups got their due. The young duo in Jacksonville of the solid Allen Hurns and burgeoning superstar, Allen Robinson, were an easy mention. The Jets don't have much depth behind Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, but their firepower was enough to get noticed. The same could be said for the Broncos veteran duo of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Not many batted an eye at Jamison Crowder's comments, as their suddenly deep group of pass-catchers offers a variety of skill-sets. Most everyone rightfully anointed the three-deep Arizona Cardinals as the best wide receiver corps in the NFL.
Even groups like the Steelers were floated out if Martavis Bryant wasn't suspended, or the Dolphins if DeVante Parker hits his ceiling. However, one group was strangely absent from the majority of these discussions.
The San Diego Chargers quite clearly have one of the five best wide receiver corps in the NFL.
The conversation starts with Keenan Allen, who in his third NFL season established himself as a premier player at his position. Before going down in Week 8 with a freak kidney injury, Allen was on pace to finish with 134 catches and over 1,400 receiving yards. He completely took over games against the Packers and Lions, catching a combined 90.6 percent of his targets in those two weeks.
Losing Allen proved too much for the Chargers offense to withstand. Philip Rivers' yard-per-attempt dropped from 8.06 to 6.53, and his touchdowns-per-game from 2.25 to 1.38 after Allen went down for the remainder of the season. The third-round draft pick out of Cal established himself as a true difference maker in 2015.
Keenan Allen doesn't check all the boxes of the prototypical No. 1 receiver. He doesn't have the size-speed combination of Julio Jones, the overwhelming physicality of Dez Bryant or the proclivity for the fantastic catch like Odell Beckham. It doesn't matter. Allen succeeds with his elite precise route-running and detailed understanding of the technical aspects of the game.
Reception Perception is a methodology I developed to help quantify a wide receiver's performance as a route-runner. The system samples eight games out of a 16-game NFL season to provide a picture of both how a team uses the receiver and how successful he is at getting open versus coverage. The methodology is the ideal way to present just how proficient a wideout Keenan Allen is.
In Keenan Allen's 2015 Reception Perception sample 58.4 percent of his 298 routes were either slants, curls or posts. Last season San Diego made excellent use of the short to intermediate passing game. Allen was the primary driving force of the aerial assault, consistently thumping defenses with those crossing patterns.
Given Philip Rivers' strength as an accurate passer, it makes great sense for the Chargers to pick teams apart in the short game. Of course, that "death by a thousand paper cuts" approach only truly works if you have an elite separator to funnel the targets through. The step forward Keenan Allen took last year solidified that he can indeed be that player to carry the passing attack.
Allen posted those elite-level scores on the routes he ran most often. His success rates on slant (86.2) and curl routes (88.4) are within the 90th percentile of NFL scores charted over the last three seasons. Allen's 80 percent success rate on post routes is also a top-notch score.
Some of that assigned route portfolio causes observers to label Keenan Allen a possession receiver, glorified slot or some other seemingly pejorative term. However, several of his Reception Perception metrics strongly rebuke that idea. His 77.1 percent overall success rate vs. man coverage is the third best score recorded in Reception Perception history, behind only Odell Beckham (80.1) and Antonio Brown (79.7).
When you think of slot receivers and these other possession archetypes, defeating tight physical coverage and plucking the ball in traffic don't fit the mold. Allen is adept at both skills with a 79.6 percent success rate vs. press and a sterling 82.6 contested catch conversion rate. Those aren't numbers of a volume-inflated receiver, those are numbers of a true anchoring No. 1 receiver.
Keenan Allen was on pace for 134 receptions and over 1,400 receiving yards last season before going down with that freak kidney injury. He was in the middle of his true breakout and reputation establishing season in 2015 after a great rookie campaign followed by a slower sophomore year. With Allen back in action, look for him to produce right up there with the top receivers in 2016. He's an excellent value in the second-round of fantasy drafts and will likely produce numbers akin to a first-round wideout when all is said and done.
You can tell the Chargers have a preferred type at the receiver position. Steve Johnson joined the team in free agency last year and he plays the game in a similar style to Allen. Johnson came to Chargers as an under the radar addition but carried a strong Reception Perception profile. The veteran was off to solid start as the primary slot receiver in San Diego with 14 catches, 173 yards and two touchdowns on just 17 targets in the first three weeks. He was an ideal chain-moving slot receiver that fit right into San Diego's up-tempo pass attack.
Unfortunately, injuries struck and Johnson couldn't build off that momentum. He did finish off the year with a seven-catch, 92-yard and one score game against Jacksonville in his final appearance before his season ended.
Johnson was a No. 1 receiver in his heyday for Buffalo, racking up three straight 1,000-yard seasons from 2010 to 2012. When many questioned if he still had anything left after a quiet 2014 season in San Francisco, Reception Perception revealed he could still play. His 76.1 percent success rate vs. man coverage and 86.7 percent against press still stand as some of the better scores among NFL slot receivers.
Johnson is one of the more creative route-runners and creates timely separation for his quarterbacks. He boasts above average success rates on slants, curls, outs, comebacks and flat routes. If he's healthy in 2016, he'll fit right back into the primary slot receiver positon in the San Diego offense. He just turned 30 years old and is far from finished. He's not a major factor on the fantasy radar at this moment, but could push for 80 catches if this offense fires on all cylinders. Going completely ignored, he's at worst a fine dart throw late in MFL10s.
Keenan Allen and Steve Johnson carry similar Reception Perception profiles as elite short to intermediate separators. They allow Philip Rivers to execute on the quick timing-based passes that fit his anticipatory style. In 2015 they just thumped teams with those crossing routes the duo excels at, and it will continue to be the basis of the passing game. However, that brand of offense only works if you have a counterpunch to keep defenses from constricting the short areas of the field.
For years, San Diego's counter punch at the receiver position was Malcom Floyd. The longtime Charger retired this offseason, but you could tell how much the team valued that role by how quickly they moved to replace him with a younger, yet similar asset. The Chargers handed a four-year, $24 million dollar contract to Travis Benjamin early in free agency.
Benjamin had a breakout season with the Browns in 2015 tallying 966 yards on 68 catches playing on the league's 30th ranked scoring offense. Yet, the football world was ready to label him as a fluke from the very start of his breakthrough year.
Perhaps because he exceeded his previous career total in yards (717) and matched his career total in touchdowns in 2015, or just due to the stigma of Bowns' offensive players, the football world at large was quick to dismiss Benjamin. His Reception Data consistently preached that doing so was a mistake.
Benjamin ran 257 routes over his eight-game sample from 2015, and you'll be unsurprised that 44.3 percent of them were slant and go-routes.
There's wisdom in asking players to just do what they do well over and over again. Benjamin's 65.1 percent success rate on go-routes is one of the top deep scores recorded in the methodology. It puts him fifth all time behind only established elite players like Antonio Brown (73.3), Odell Beckham (74.3) and Dez Bryant (67.2) and the NFL's best deep threat in DeSean Jackson (74.6). Anytime you see a score pushing the 60 percent range you're broaching into the territory of some of the NFL's vertical threats, but a data point like Benjamin's is special.
Two of Benjamin's other highly run routes, the slant and post, are perfect for the timing-based passing attack San Diego runs. He also demonstrated great ability to sell the deep route before breaking off to the more shallow portions of the field. Often times, when a player is that good as a deep threat, you just want them to be competent in the other portions of the game. Benjamin's 80.4 percent score on slants and 75.8 percent on posts are well above the NFL average for each pattern, showing he passes the test with more than just competence.
Travis Benjamin will fill the field-stretching role in the Chargers receiving corps and has all the ability to thrive in doing so. Not only will his dangerous speed open up space for Allen and Johnson to get open with precise routes underneath, but he'll also contribute major big plays with his ability downfield. Benjamin's success rates on other routes like the slant and comeback (80 percent success rate) show he can be the type of nuanced receiver that will also chip in at other parts of the game plan besides the vertical plays.
Benjamin goes off the board anywhere from the eighth round in MFL10s to the 11th round in more casual drafts. He doesn't require more than a WR4 investment, which makes sense given questions about his target share and week-to-week consistency in the stat sheets.
When pursuing the wide receiver corps throughout the rest of the NFL, it's hard to come up with many groups from one to three to match the Chargers. Reception Perception reveals they have a true No. 1 in Keenan Allen, a dangerous playmaker in Travis Benjamin and the slot receiver technician to complete the mix in Steve Johnson. Each offers a unique skill set to the table and fits comfortably into their role.
The Chargers also have some depth that shouldn't go unnoticed. Dontrelle Inman has produced when called upon to step out of his No. 4 receiver positon. The team has a potential big-time sleeper in 6-foot-4 and 205-pound Tyrell Williams out of Western Oregon. Williams ripped off a 4.42 40-yard dash and 39.5-inch vertical jump at his 2015 Pro Day. If any of the top-three were to struggle with injuries again this upcoming season, they have players who could step in for them.
If you add in veteran tight end Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead, who tied the NFL lead in running back catches (80) last year, the Chargers offense is littered with high-end passing game weapons. With a top-five receiving corps and fine ancillary assets, this aerial attack could be set to explode in 2016, especially if the defense does not improve.
San Diego added some fine pieces to their defense in Casey Heyward and No. 3 overall pick Joey Bosa (who is still unsigned), but they'll need more than that to drastically improve Football Outsiders' DVOA 25th ranked defense. The Chargers ranked first in plays per drive and Rivers led the NFL in pass attempts last season and have little reason to scale back their tempo.
All of this weaponry and projected game scripts intersects back at Philip Rivers, who is perennially underappreciated in both NFL evaluation and fantasy circles. He goes off the board anywhere from the 9th to 13th round in current fantasy drafts. Ken Whisenhunt helped Rivers' career get back on track in 2013 and he returned as the team's offensive coordinator in the offseason. The team ranked sixth in pass yards during his last stint in San Diego. The team may want to establish Melvin Gordon, but his own play and their team construction with riches in the passing game dictate where the emphasis will go.
We need to start giving the Chargers more attention and respect as potentially one of the best passing offenses in the NFL. A stable of high-end pass catchers attached to a high-end accurate passer bring a tantalizing mixture. Don't be surprised if all of their air players exceed expectations in 2016.
Jamison Crowder made waves in late June when he asserted that Washington boasted the best receiver group in the NFL. Naturally, the second-year slot receiver's comments spawned discussion and rankings all throughout the football world.
It seemed that in the aftermath of the original Crowder comment all the talented receiver groups got their due. The young duo in Jacksonville of the solid Allen Hurns and burgeoning superstar, Allen Robinson, were an easy mention. The Jets don't have much depth behind Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, but their firepower was enough to get noticed. The same could be said for the Broncos veteran duo of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Not many batted an eye at Jamison Crowder's comments, as their suddenly deep group of pass-catchers offers a variety of skill-sets. Most everyone rightfully anointed the three-deep Arizona Cardinals as the best wide receiver corps in the NFL.
Even groups like the Steelers were floated out if Martavis Bryant wasn't suspended, or the Dolphins if DeVante Parker hits his ceiling. However, one group was strangely absent from the majority of these discussions.
The San Diego Chargers quite clearly have one of the five best wide receiver corps in the NFL.
The conversation starts with Keenan Allen, who in his third NFL season established himself as a premier player at his position. Before going down in Week 8 with a freak kidney injury, Allen was on pace to finish with 134 catches and over 1,400 receiving yards. He completely took over games against the Packers and Lions, catching a combined 90.6 percent of his targets in those two weeks.
Losing Allen proved too much for the Chargers offense to withstand. Philip Rivers' yard-per-attempt dropped from 8.06 to 6.53, and his touchdowns-per-game from 2.25 to 1.38 after Allen went down for the remainder of the season. The third-round draft pick out of Cal established himself as a true difference maker in 2015.
Keenan Allen doesn't check all the boxes of the prototypical No. 1 receiver. He doesn't have the size-speed combination of Julio Jones, the overwhelming physicality of Dez Bryant or the proclivity for the fantastic catch like Odell Beckham. It doesn't matter. Allen succeeds with his elite precise route-running and detailed understanding of the technical aspects of the game.
Reception Perception is a methodology I developed to help quantify a wide receiver's performance as a route-runner. The system samples eight games out of a 16-game NFL season to provide a picture of both how a team uses the receiver and how successful he is at getting open versus coverage. The methodology is the ideal way to present just how proficient a wideout Keenan Allen is.
In Keenan Allen's 2015 Reception Perception sample 58.4 percent of his 298 routes were either slants, curls or posts. Last season San Diego made excellent use of the short to intermediate passing game. Allen was the primary driving force of the aerial assault, consistently thumping defenses with those crossing patterns.
Given Philip Rivers' strength as an accurate passer, it makes great sense for the Chargers to pick teams apart in the short game. Of course, that "death by a thousand paper cuts" approach only truly works if you have an elite separator to funnel the targets through. The step forward Keenan Allen took last year solidified that he can indeed be that player to carry the passing attack.
Allen posted those elite-level scores on the routes he ran most often. His success rates on slant (86.2) and curl routes (88.4) are within the 90th percentile of NFL scores charted over the last three seasons. Allen's 80 percent success rate on post routes is also a top-notch score.
Some of that assigned route portfolio causes observers to label Keenan Allen a possession receiver, glorified slot or some other seemingly pejorative term. However, several of his Reception Perception metrics strongly rebuke that idea. His 77.1 percent overall success rate vs. man coverage is the third best score recorded in Reception Perception history, behind only Odell Beckham (80.1) and Antonio Brown (79.7).
When you think of slot receivers and these other possession archetypes, defeating tight physical coverage and plucking the ball in traffic don't fit the mold. Allen is adept at both skills with a 79.6 percent success rate vs. press and a sterling 82.6 contested catch conversion rate. Those aren't numbers of a volume-inflated receiver, those are numbers of a true anchoring No. 1 receiver.
Keenan Allen was on pace for 134 receptions and over 1,400 receiving yards last season before going down with that freak kidney injury. He was in the middle of his true breakout and reputation establishing season in 2015 after a great rookie campaign followed by a slower sophomore year. With Allen back in action, look for him to produce right up there with the top receivers in 2016. He's an excellent value in the second-round of fantasy drafts and will likely produce numbers akin to a first-round wideout when all is said and done.
You can tell the Chargers have a preferred type at the receiver position. Steve Johnson joined the team in free agency last year and he plays the game in a similar style to Allen. Johnson came to Chargers as an under the radar addition but carried a strong Reception Perception profile. The veteran was off to solid start as the primary slot receiver in San Diego with 14 catches, 173 yards and two touchdowns on just 17 targets in the first three weeks. He was an ideal chain-moving slot receiver that fit right into San Diego's up-tempo pass attack.
Unfortunately, injuries struck and Johnson couldn't build off that momentum. He did finish off the year with a seven-catch, 92-yard and one score game against Jacksonville in his final appearance before his season ended.
Johnson was a No. 1 receiver in his heyday for Buffalo, racking up three straight 1,000-yard seasons from 2010 to 2012. When many questioned if he still had anything left after a quiet 2014 season in San Francisco, Reception Perception revealed he could still play. His 76.1 percent success rate vs. man coverage and 86.7 percent against press still stand as some of the better scores among NFL slot receivers.
Johnson is one of the more creative route-runners and creates timely separation for his quarterbacks. He boasts above average success rates on slants, curls, outs, comebacks and flat routes. If he's healthy in 2016, he'll fit right back into the primary slot receiver positon in the San Diego offense. He just turned 30 years old and is far from finished. He's not a major factor on the fantasy radar at this moment, but could push for 80 catches if this offense fires on all cylinders. Going completely ignored, he's at worst a fine dart throw late in MFL10s.
Keenan Allen and Steve Johnson carry similar Reception Perception profiles as elite short to intermediate separators. They allow Philip Rivers to execute on the quick timing-based passes that fit his anticipatory style. In 2015 they just thumped teams with those crossing routes the duo excels at, and it will continue to be the basis of the passing game. However, that brand of offense only works if you have a counterpunch to keep defenses from constricting the short areas of the field.
For years, San Diego's counter punch at the receiver position was Malcom Floyd. The longtime Charger retired this offseason, but you could tell how much the team valued that role by how quickly they moved to replace him with a younger, yet similar asset. The Chargers handed a four-year, $24 million dollar contract to Travis Benjamin early in free agency.
Benjamin had a breakout season with the Browns in 2015 tallying 966 yards on 68 catches playing on the league's 30th ranked scoring offense. Yet, the football world was ready to label him as a fluke from the very start of his breakthrough year.
Perhaps because he exceeded his previous career total in yards (717) and matched his career total in touchdowns in 2015, or just due to the stigma of Bowns' offensive players, the football world at large was quick to dismiss Benjamin. His Reception Data consistently preached that doing so was a mistake.
Benjamin ran 257 routes over his eight-game sample from 2015, and you'll be unsurprised that 44.3 percent of them were slant and go-routes.
There's wisdom in asking players to just do what they do well over and over again. Benjamin's 65.1 percent success rate on go-routes is one of the top deep scores recorded in the methodology. It puts him fifth all time behind only established elite players like Antonio Brown (73.3), Odell Beckham (74.3) and Dez Bryant (67.2) and the NFL's best deep threat in DeSean Jackson (74.6). Anytime you see a score pushing the 60 percent range you're broaching into the territory of some of the NFL's vertical threats, but a data point like Benjamin's is special.
Two of Benjamin's other highly run routes, the slant and post, are perfect for the timing-based passing attack San Diego runs. He also demonstrated great ability to sell the deep route before breaking off to the more shallow portions of the field. Often times, when a player is that good as a deep threat, you just want them to be competent in the other portions of the game. Benjamin's 80.4 percent score on slants and 75.8 percent on posts are well above the NFL average for each pattern, showing he passes the test with more than just competence.
Travis Benjamin will fill the field-stretching role in the Chargers receiving corps and has all the ability to thrive in doing so. Not only will his dangerous speed open up space for Allen and Johnson to get open with precise routes underneath, but he'll also contribute major big plays with his ability downfield. Benjamin's success rates on other routes like the slant and comeback (80 percent success rate) show he can be the type of nuanced receiver that will also chip in at other parts of the game plan besides the vertical plays.
Benjamin goes off the board anywhere from the eighth round in MFL10s to the 11th round in more casual drafts. He doesn't require more than a WR4 investment, which makes sense given questions about his target share and week-to-week consistency in the stat sheets.
When pursuing the wide receiver corps throughout the rest of the NFL, it's hard to come up with many groups from one to three to match the Chargers. Reception Perception reveals they have a true No. 1 in Keenan Allen, a dangerous playmaker in Travis Benjamin and the slot receiver technician to complete the mix in Steve Johnson. Each offers a unique skill set to the table and fits comfortably into their role.
The Chargers also have some depth that shouldn't go unnoticed. Dontrelle Inman has produced when called upon to step out of his No. 4 receiver positon. The team has a potential big-time sleeper in 6-foot-4 and 205-pound Tyrell Williams out of Western Oregon. Williams ripped off a 4.42 40-yard dash and 39.5-inch vertical jump at his 2015 Pro Day. If any of the top-three were to struggle with injuries again this upcoming season, they have players who could step in for them.
If you add in veteran tight end Antonio Gates and Danny Woodhead, who tied the NFL lead in running back catches (80) last year, the Chargers offense is littered with high-end passing game weapons. With a top-five receiving corps and fine ancillary assets, this aerial attack could be set to explode in 2016, especially if the defense does not improve.
San Diego added some fine pieces to their defense in Casey Heyward and No. 3 overall pick Joey Bosa (who is still unsigned), but they'll need more than that to drastically improve Football Outsiders' DVOA 25th ranked defense. The Chargers ranked first in plays per drive and Rivers led the NFL in pass attempts last season and have little reason to scale back their tempo.
All of this weaponry and projected game scripts intersects back at Philip Rivers, who is perennially underappreciated in both NFL evaluation and fantasy circles. He goes off the board anywhere from the 9th to 13th round in current fantasy drafts. Ken Whisenhunt helped Rivers' career get back on track in 2013 and he returned as the team's offensive coordinator in the offseason. The team ranked sixth in pass yards during his last stint in San Diego. The team may want to establish Melvin Gordon, but his own play and their team construction with riches in the passing game dictate where the emphasis will go.
We need to start giving the Chargers more attention and respect as potentially one of the best passing offenses in the NFL. A stable of high-end pass catchers attached to a high-end accurate passer bring a tantalizing mixture. Don't be surprised if all of their air players exceed expectations in 2016.
| Winner of 2017 Super Bowl? | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | +1086 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | +6043 | |
| Baltimore Ravens | +3374 | |
| Buffalo Bills | +5132 | |
| Carolina Panthers | +1058 | |
| Chicago Bears | +7185 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +1696 | |
| Cleveland Browns | +23703 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | +2116 | |
| Denver Broncos | +1864 | |
| Detroit Lions | +6547 | |
| Green Bay Packers | +976 | |
| Houston Texans | +3079 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | +2259 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +6658 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +2515 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | +7050 | |
| Miami Dolphins | +6849 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | +2465 | |
| New England Patriots | +706 | |
| New Orleans Saints | +8057 | |
| New York Giants | +2518 | |
| New York Jets | +6345 | |
| Oakland Raiders | +3525 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +7050 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +907 | |
| San Diego Chargers | +6157 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | +11079 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | +857 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +9339 | |
| Tennessee Titans | +16114 | |
| Washington Redskins | +5640 |
| Winner of NFC Conference Championship? | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | +500 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | +2650 | |
| Carolina Panthers | +500 | |
| Chicago Bears | +3300 | |
| Dallas Cowboys | +1050 | |
| Detroit Lions | +3100 | |
| Green Bay Packers | +495 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | +3150 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | +1100 | |
| New Orleans Saints | +3500 | |
| New York Giants | +1250 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +2900 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | +4500 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | +425 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +3800 | |
| Washington Redskins | +2400 |
| Winner of AFC Conference Championship? | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | +1302 | |
| Buffalo Bills | +2214 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +755 | |
| Cleveland Browns | +8652 | |
| Denver Broncos | +820 | |
| Houston Texans | +1409 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | +1007 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +2737 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +1127 | |
| Miami Dolphins | +2918 | |
| New England Patriots | +353 | |
| New York Jets | +2868 | |
| Oakland Raiders | +1660 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +403 | |
| San Diego Chargers | +2817 | |
| Tennessee Titans | +6036 | |
| Winner of NFC East Division? | ||
| Dallas Cowboys | +167 | |
| New York Giants | +213 | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | +505 | |
| Washington Redskins | +345 |
| Winner of NFC North Division? | ||
| Chicago Bears | +1073 | |
| Detroit Lions | +1150 | |
| Green Bay Packers | -161 | |
| Minnesota Vikings | +226 |
| Winner of NFC South Division? | ||
| Atlanta Falcons | +706 | |
| Carolina Panthers | -258 | |
| New Orleans Saints | +770 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +778 |
| Winner of NFC West Division? | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | +155 | |
| Los Angeles Rams | +1000 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | +2000 | |
| Seattle Seahawks | -123 |
| Winner of AFC East Division? | ||
| Buffalo Bills | +606 | |
| Miami Dolphins | +762 | |
| New England Patriots | -243 | |
| New York Jets | +689 |
| Winner of AFC North Division? | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | +333 | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +168 | |
| Cleveland Browns | +2552 | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +127 |
| Winner of AFC South Division? | ||
| Houston Texans | +184 | |
| Indianapolis Colts | +137 | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +358 | |
| Tennessee Titans | +1107 |
| Winner of AFC West Division? | ||
| Denver Broncos | +204 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +179 | |
| Oakland Raiders | +278 | |
| San Diego Chargers | +626 |
| Arizona Cardinals Regular Season Wins? | ||
| Over 9.5 Wins | -190 | |
| Under 9.5 Wins | +161 | |
| 09.00 | Atlanta Falcons Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 7.5 Wins | +117 | |
| Under 7.5 Wins | -137 | |
| 09.00 | Baltimore Ravens Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 8 Wins | -118 | |
| Under 8 Wins | +101 | |
| 09.00 | Buffalo Bills Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 8 Wins | -124 | |
| Under 8 Wins | +106 | |
| 09.00 | Carolina Panthers Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 10.5 Wins | -126 | |
| Under 10.5 Wins | +108 | |
| 09.00 | Chicago Bears Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 7.5 Wins | +115 | |
| Under 7.5 Wins | -134 | |
| 09.00 | Cincinnati Bengals Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 9.5 Wins | -120 | |
| Under 9.5 Wins | +103 | |
| 09.00 | Cleveland Browns Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 4.5 Wins | -148 | |
| Under 4.5 Wins | +126 | |
| 09.00 | Dallas Cowboys Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 9.5 Wins | +120 | |
| Under 9.5 Wins | -140 | |
| 09.00 | Denver Broncos Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 9.5 Wins | +147 | |
| Under 9.5 Wins | -173 |
| Detroit Lions Regular Season Wins? | ||
| Over 7 Wins | -106 | |
| Under 7 Wins | -110 | |
| 09.00 | Green Bay Packers Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 10.5 Wins | -179 | |
| Under 10.5 Wins | +152 | |
| 09.00 | Indianapolis Colts Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 9.5 Wins | +152 | |
| Under 9.5 Wins | -179 | |
| 09.00 | Jacksonville Jaguars Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 7.5 Wins | -116 | |
| Under 7.5 Wins | -101 | |
| 09.00 | Kansas City Chiefs Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 9.5 Wins | -111 | |
| Under 9.5 Wins | -105 | |
| 09.00 | Los Angeles Rams Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 7.5 Wins | +142 | |
| Under 7.5 Wins | -167 | |
| 09.00 | Miami Dolphins Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 7 Wins | -114 | |
| Under 7 Wins | -102 | |
| 09.00 | Minnesota Vikings Regular Season Wins? | |
| Over 9.5 Wins | -140 | |
| Under 9.5 Wins | +120 |
