***NFL Computer Picks***

[Mistermj]

I'm going with the Paycheck system this week. I like this pick and it's time for a winner here.


I've had a rough start.


One pick this week.


This is the spot for Detroit. It's a Division game, and they allowed themselves to implode last week after the heartbreaking loss to Seattle in which they were screwed by the refs.


Last weeks bad game was understandable, just as it's understandable this is really a gut game for Detroit and it all lines up for them pretty well here.


I will be very surprised if this isn't high effort, and Detroits first win this season.


NFL Paycheck Picks ( Play on using flat bets for the same amount all season)
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 18


1:00 PM ET Detroit -3 500


2015 Record 0-*1-*0 0.00% -*1.1 Units

 

[Mistermj]

The Jets are the pick this week. It's good value, for a motivated team against a much inferior opponent off a big win.
NFL Paycheck Picks (Play on using flat bets for the same amount all season)
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1


N.Y. Jets - 4:05 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3 500
Oakland



2015 Record 1-*1-*1 50.00% -* .1 Unit

 

[Mistermj]

Dallas qualfiies as a Paycheck pick...I'd like to actually see some checks cashed.



This one is also part of a strong SDQLtrend for Away teams off of an away loss...it has some contrarian upside with Tony Romo returning, and Dallas actually has a favorable match up despite all of their recent problems.


It feels plenty scary....must be the right way to go.




1:00 PM ET Dallas -2.5


2015 Record 1-4-1

 

[XENO]

Tout tally

 

[Mistermj]

Call me crazy but I think things are set up for Dallas -1 again.

I have an indicator for Carolina under performance and the chance of high turn overs in this game...and I"m going with it.

It's always possible to have some Thanksgiving magic in Dallas and they have nothing to lose today. I like it.


NFL Paycheck System
4:30 PM ET Dallas -1


Record 2-4-1


Also, it's not a system pick but Green Bay Under 45 tonight is a play. Put some beer money on that one. The weather might help too.


Good luck to us.


Happy Thanksgiving.

MJ

 

[Mistermj]

One pick qualifies with the Paycheck System this week.

This time of year Passer Rating Differential starts to take over as a predictive tool.


Carolina holds the edge but it isn't a large differential as the Giants are close to being in the top ten as well.


Carolina is coming off a 38-0 shut out and a game that nicked them up injury wise.


This is the spot for some Carolina under performance on the road. On paper it is a fair line.


Good luck to us.

MJ

NFL Paycheck System


CAR at NYG 1:00 PM NYG +5.0



Record 3-4-1

 

[Mistermj]

 

[Mistermj]

Everything is flowing toward quality.

Good luck.

MJ

NFL PayCheck System


CLE at KC 1 :00 PM ET KC -11.5

DAL at BUF 1:00 PM ET BUF -6.5

GB at ARI 4:25 PM ET ARI -5.5



4-4-1

 

[Mistermj]

One game and one pick stands out today.

Minnesota at Green Bay for the NFC North Division Crown on Sunday Night Football.


The value is on Minnesota +3 all the way.


At worst it will be close...and Minnesota might win outright.


I'm looking for Minnesota to win the turnover battle which also might be the difference.


Much of Green Bay's current standing is really living off of their early season record when they won six straight games.


Green Bay is not the same team at all...and what I see in the stats is a slide down that they can not turn around.


Minnesota has strong upward momentum and it should carry over in this game for the division.


NFL Paycheck System Picks




MIN at GB 8:30 PM ET MIN +3.0


2015 Record 6-5-1

 

[Mistermj]

MIN at GB 8:30 PM ET MIN +3.0


2015 Record 7-5-1

 

[Mistermj]

For the playoffs I'm looking at end of the season overall efficiency and quality stats and how those are relative to each other.


Passer rating differential and or Real Quarterback rating differentials in particular.


I'm also trying to filter out some things using common sense. Cincinnati without their starting QB for instance. I want a clear.statistical advantage for the Paycheck System. I don't want to speculate if a back up QB can carry on as if it is still the same team.


The Green Bay game was not included because it's basically a statistical tie...both teams show a slight advantage in certain areas...and Washington is home vs. a more playoff experienced Packers. It all seems to just balance out...too close to call for my purposes.


The Paycheck system is really just a blending and evolution of everything that I've done in the past from EMO's, Computer picks, using Passer rating differentials ect.all into one overall system that is very selective how it makes a pick. And it's backloaded...it will make the most picks at the end of the season and playoffs when we have the very best statistical picture of each team.


Good luck.


MJ


* I had KC -3 yesterday but didn't get a chance to post it here.
NFL Pay Check System



Sunday Jan. 10


SEA at MIN 1:05 PM ET SEA -4.0


2015/16 Record 8-5-1 61.5%

 

[Mistermj]

Everything moves toward quality in the playoffs and I cross check for value or outstanding circumstances that can rule out a pick.


Despite some of the injury drama I believe the safest way to play these is to play them all and any bad breaks will hopefully cancel out.


In particular, Pittsburgh is a question mark with Roethlisberger but I'm not so sure both or either of Denver's QB's are up to the task in this game either. Pittsburgh will figure it out...and it looks like solid value to me.


We are not only looking at statistical advantage but all of these teams also have the advantage of being risk takers that bury opponents when they have the chance. It is a trait of champions...and it's something that should be considered more in playoff handicapping in my opinion. I used to track of lot of this stuff separately...for years as stand alone systems.


Now...here it is...all used together. Any week can have it's upsets but I'm confident over time the cream will rise to the top using this "method of methods".



Good luck to us.


What a great weekend of football.


MJ


NFL Paycheck Picks



SATURDAY, JANUARY 16


KC at NE 04:35 PM ET NE -4.5


GB at ARI 08:15 PM ET ARI -7.5


SUNDAY, JANUARY 17


SEA at CAR 01:05 PM ET CAR -2.0


PIT at DEN 04:40 PM ET PIT +7.5


8-6-1 57.14% / (Last 10) 7-3

 

[LexingtonGambler]

Good Luck!!!!!

 

[Mistermj]

Good Luck!!!!!

 

[Mistermj]

KC at NE 04:35 PM ET NE -4.5 Winner

 

[Mistermj]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 17


SEA at CAR 01:05 PM ET CAR -2.0


PIT at DEN 04:40 PM ET PIT +7.5


9-7-1 56.25%

 

[Mistermj]

Conference Championships.

My favorite day of football...the Super Bowl can be anti-climatic, but getting there is where the fun is.

The difference between New England and Denver is striking. Denver's problem is on offense with their QB play. They've gotten away with it up until now with stellar defense taking up the slack.


History says that doesn't cut it very long in the playoffs. It sounds silly but New England will simply out-score them in my opinion. Whatever it takes.

Carolina will be the Favorite the rest of the way...or until somebody stops Cam. It's Cam's legs, this season in particular that really makes it all work with such a great defense and good enough passing attack.

NFL Paycheck System (A System of Systems)



NE at DEN 03:05 PM ET NE -3.0


ARI at CAR 06:40 PM ET CAR -3.0



11-7-1 61.11%

 

[Mistermj]

My hat will be off to Peyton or the Denver defense if they can pull this off, but the odds in my opinion, are statistically clearly against them.


Good luck and enjoy the day.


MJ

NFL Paycheck System ( A System of Systems)


CAR at DEN 06:30 PM CAR -5.0


12-8-1 60.00% (Last 10 7-3-0 70%)

 

[Mistermj]

A quick post to summarize my NFL systems last season.

I Posted the MisterMJ Paycheck system here and it ended up with a solid final record of 12-9-0 57.14% ATS including the playoffs.

I had Carolina in the SuperBowl and that is reflected in the record...have to hand it to the Denver defense there it's very hard to do what they did with Peytons numbers last season...but they did it, so congrats to them.

I'll be back here all season including thoughts on NFL Fantasy , and preseason NFL.

Thanks for following.

 

[Mistermj]

Heads Up on NFL Preseason.

[FONT=&quot]NFL Preseason Dogs are currently [/FONT][FONT=&quot]13-6-0 +68% ATS per Wagerline using closing lines.

Just sayin...three more games tonight.[/FONT]