***NFL Computer Picks***

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]Saturday August 27 1:00 PM ET KC Chiefs @ Chicago Bears.[/FONT]
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Take the Chiefs - 2(and up to -3)

Andy Reid is 11-6 SU in week # 3. That's 17 years of history and suggests that Andy takes his week # 3 tune up seriously.

Andy Reid said that the number one’s on offense and defense may play into the third quarter during what is normally the dress rehearsal game for the upcoming season.

Bingo...that's what I'm looking for in a preseason dress rehearsal game to wager on.

[FONT=&quot]Now let's look at the Bears...and it's ugly. Decimated by injuries already it's going to be a hodge podge of camp bodies filling slots.

[/FONT][FONT=&quot]Looks like a possible preseason starters and bench mismatch. Don't go too crazy...this is just a tune up for the regular season. I won't bother with record keeping until the regular season starts. This is my first pick of the preseason and I think it's playable.[/FONT][/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Good luck to us. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]MJ[/FONT]

 

[Mistermj]

Chiefs are still -2.5...20 minutes before game time. Still looks like a go. Can't wait for regular season but this is better than nothing.

Good luck! Let's get this one.

 

[Mistermj]

So far so good...the plan was for KC scrubs to be better than Chicago scrubs. With the lead ...no jinx...let's do this.

 

[Mistermj]

Chiefs -2 Winner

It's nice when they go as planned.

There are definitely opportunities in the NFL Preseason if you are patient and let the best ones come to you. NFL Preseason Week # 3 dress rehearsals are THE week to play in my opinion. We may catch one next week too...some coaches prefer Week # 4 for their tune up.

I'll be watching and posting for next week.

MJ

 

[Mistermj]

In general...the first two weeks of the NFL Preseason look for dog value. Nobody really knows what is going to happen anyway. This year Dogs were 17-9 65.3% ATS the first two weeks of the season.

Week # 3 look for QB and bench mismatches and teams that historically do well in week # 3 because the coach coaches that way.

Week # 4 is the same as Week #3 if you can find a coach that uses Week #4 Preseason as his dress rehearsal. Some do.

In general it's these small Faves that do better in Week # 3 and # 4.

NFL Preseason currently 7-5-1 58.3% ATS Faves this week closing lines at Wagerline with 3 games 2 go.

Nothing is written in stone here...just a general format to follow...NFL Preseason "Mindset".

Shush()*

 

[BigHurt007]

Just to avoid confusion...these are NOT the regular computer picks that I have been posting for a couple of years.

This is something new...and experimental that I'm tracking. EMO's are emotional factors that lead to over and under performance.

Do what you want with them...maybe watching is the best advice.

The "EMO's are all the emotional factor picks this week that qualify....the EMO POD is the "best" one with the most emo factors.

That doesn't mean it will be the best one...it just looks like the best one.

I'm tracking both sets to see which performs the best.

The regular computer picks will be posted Friday morning.

NFL EMO's


Sunday, September 27

<table class="thepicks"> <tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="32%">Game</td> <td width="15%">Score</td> <td width="15%">Status</td> <td width="29%">Pick</td> <td width="9%">Amount</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> N.Y. Giants </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Tampa Bay +6.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Kansas City </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Philadelphia -9</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Philadelphia </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> New Orleans </td> <td> - </td> <td>4:05 PM ET</td> <td>Buffalo +6</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Buffalo </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> Monday, September 28

<table class="thepicks"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="32%">Game</td> <td width="15%">Score</td> <td width="15%">Status</td> <td width="29%">Pick</td> <td width="9%">Amount</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> Carolina </td> <td> - </td> <td>8:30 PM ET</td> <td>Dallas -9</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Dallas </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td></tr></tbody></table>
<table class="data" id="ctrl_leaderboard_dgContestLeaders" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="my-stats"><td class="center">3-2-0 </td><td> 60.00% </td><td> +400 </td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

EMO POD

Sunday, September 27

<table class="thepicks"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="32%">Game</td> <td width="15%">Score</td> <td width="15%">Status</td> <td width="29%">Pick</td> <td width="9%">Amount</td> </tr> <tr class="firstline"> <td> N.Y. Giants </td> <td> - </td> <td>1:00 PM ET</td> <td>Tampa Bay +6.5</td> <td>500</td> </tr> <tr> <td> Tampa Bay </td> <td> - </td> <td> </td> <td> </td> <td> </td></tr></tbody></table>

<table class="data" id="ctrl_leaderboard_dgContestLeaders" style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="my-stats"><td class="center">0-2-0 </td><td> 0.00% </td><td> -1100 </td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>

This might be the funniest shit I've seen in here. Is this a computer spitting out plays via some sort of source code?

 

[BigHurt007]

Skimmed this thread and saw post-posted plays, pick sales, and tout-speak. "Emo" and "paycheck" plays lol yeah you can't make this shit up.
Site promo this shit. This ain't Pregame

 

[XSPower]

 

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]Trying to handicap NFL Preseason games is challenging, but suppose there are some details that might sway things our way?

[/FONT]Realize that the Packers have won four of their last five preseason finales.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]I think it's fair to say that McCarthy plays to win while evaluating Packer teams that have been very deep in talent, and this particular team is the deepest, maybe ever, which means there may be an advantage against Kansas City later in the game playing scrubs vs. scrubs.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]From back up QB's to the back end of the Wide Receivers, Offensive line and Defensive backs, Green Bay is loaded. Even their scrubs should play a competitive game and many of the cuts will make other teams 53 man rosters.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]Over the last two years, Green Bay has outscored its opponents, 72-24, in Week 4 of the preseason.

Andy Reid is 6-11 in game # 4 of the Preseason during his coaching lifetime. He seems to let his foot off the gas a little bit in game # 4.

[FONT=&quot][/FONT]I suggest caution and wouldn't wager very much on a Preseason game, save it for the regular season because that is when we can rack up the units with proven handicapping systems.[FONT=&quot]

[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]

Take Green Bay +3.5 tonight at Kansas City at 8:00 PM ET[/FONT][FONT=&quot].[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]2016 NFL Preseason Record 1-0[/FONT]
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[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]Good luck to us.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT][FONT=&quot][/FONT][FONT=&quot]MJ[/FONT]

 

[Mistermj]

Almost had the cover there on the goal line, but not tonight.

Bring on the regular season.

 

[Mistermj]

Almost had the cover there on the goal line, but not tonight. Finish the Preseason 1-1

Bring on the regular season.

 

[Mistermj]

The NFL Week #3 and sometimes week #4 are good for bounce-backs with teams that have struggled, and it's also good for some regression in teams that started off well.


There is line value in the public's over-reaction to early season wins and losses, in other words.


For NFL Week # 3 I like Tampa Bay -5, Jacksonville +1.5, Buffalo +3.5, and Indianapolis -2.5


All of these are home teams which I think is important at this point in the season.


All of these match ups have some element of expecting a bounce back in performance...or going against an opponent off of a big win, or both.


I still recommend caution..keep your wagers small is my recommendation. They are still just guesses until we start running some stat based system pick experiments here.

 

[Mistermj]

IMO the Packers are a wounded bear this week. Could blow up or blow em out. Stay away.

 

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]Stat handicappers have to learn when to play em and when not to. We start getting a much better window on the NFL in a week.

Going to sit this one out and let things jell.

One of the hardest lessons to learn is to be patient and let things come to you.

Most don't understand this. [/FONT]:toast:

 

[Mistermj]

Week # 3 of the preseason presents us with some "dress rehearsal" opportunities and we can consider coaches past history. The thinking is we have a better chance to cover a spread with a coach taking week # 3 a little more serious.


On paper...in my opinion we may have such a situation this week with Cincinnati at Washington on Sunday at 4:30 pm ET. For whatever reason...Cincinnati with Marvin Lewis as coach seems to like week #4 better and Cincinnati is a preseason fade here.

Take Washington -3.

MisterMJ NFL Preseason 2017
Sunday Aug. 27 4:30 PM ET Pick Washington -3


2017 NFL Preseason Record 0-0




Good luck to us!


MJ

 

[Saints2016]

Good luck this year!

 

[WBTB]

Wow this is some old info

 

[Mistermj]

Just one pick this preseason but it was a winner.

Found this trend...it's worth passing along for NFL Week # 1.

NFL WEEK # 1



Teams in week # 1 which covered in no more than 1/3 of their games last season are 55-33-1 ATS.


Play on Cin -3 , Clev +9 , San Francisco +5 , LA Rams -4

 

[Mistermj]

[FONT=&quot]2-2 last week off an NFL trend pick.

Taking the Home Dog Jaguars today +1 [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]NFL Week # 2 1:00 PM ET Pick Jacksonville +1 [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Jags are coming up positive on a lot of red flag filters.

I'm still patiently waiting for the NFL season to mature before starting my regular "System" picks. Until then...keep it small in my opinion as these are just educated guesses.

I much prefer the disciplined, stat based system approach available in a few weeks.



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[the1yankee]

Gl mj