If someone has Phil Steele's weekly newsletter Id appreciate it. Here's his bet bets. Or at least the big games of the week espn makes him pick.
This year has started off on a solid note. In the first seven weeks, my selections have now gone 79-21 (79 percent) picking the straight-up winners and 54-44-2 (55 percent) against the spread.
No. 14 Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (+13.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Indiana has fared well versus the big boys of the Big Ten. Despite being down to their backup quarterback and running back against Ohio State, the Hoosiers were down seven and had the ball at the Buckeyes' 6-yard line at the end. They trailed Michigan State by only five, 31-26, with 5:00 to go before falling apart. They settled for a 28-yard field goal and trailed Iowa 21-20 in the fourth quarter in an eight-point loss. Jordan Howard rushed for 174 yards in that one, and Nate Sudfeld is healthy. Michigan was outgained by Minnesota 461-296 and needed a goal-line stand to win by three in its most recent Big Ten road trip. Indiana lost by eight at home to Iowa and is now getting 13.5 from Michigan? I like the Hoosiers to cover this number.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Michigan 33, Indiana 28
No. 1 Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange(+28)
3:30 p.m. ET ABC
I have Clemson written in pen in my playoff bracket, as the Tigers shouldn't be tested the rest of the year. Syracuse will probably be without Eric Dungey, the best quarterback replacement for Terrel Hunt, who was lost in the opener. I still will take the points with the home 'dog. Zack Mahoney also got the start against LSU, and Syracuse lost by just 10 at home. Syracuse has been blown out in three road games but is 3-2 at home, almost upsetting a ranked Pitt in its other loss. Clemson is coming off its biggest win of the season and doesn't need style points.
ATS pick: Syracuse
Score: Clemson 38, Syracuse 18
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7.5) at No. 17Mississippi State Bulldogs
3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
The media (and I) picked Mississippi State to finish last in the SEC West, and the Bulldogs have proved the experts wrong. Alabama is 3-7 ATS as an away favorite, and Mississippi State is 8-1 ATS as a 'dog. The Bulldogs will have a fired-up home crowd with the cowbells ringing. They have a mobile quarterback in Dak Prescott, a weapon the Tide defense has struggled against. My computer had Alabama by 10 over LSU and now has them beating the Bulldogs by seven, so I'm a little concerned about this pick. The numbers and angles all favor Mississippi State, but I'm still taking the Tide.
As impressive as Mississippi State has been, the Bulldogs are just plus-74 yards per game against a cupcake schedule (I rate it No. 60) and trailed LSU 21-6 in the fourth quarter in their toughest game. Alabama is plus-158 yards per game and has faced my third-toughest schedule. Alabama controls its destiny and has Charleston Southern on deck. Its defense is No. 1 in the country, holding foes to 184 yards per game below their season averages. Mississippi State is actually allowing 4.7 yards per carry in the SEC and 59 percent completions.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Mississippi State 17
No. 10 Utah Utes (-6) at Arizona Wildcats
10:00 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
No one has talked about them since the USC loss, but the Utes control their own destiny in the Pac-12 and could end up in the CFP. The Utes are playing with legitimate revenge after being upset at home 42-10 by the Wildcats last year (Arizona's third straight series win). Arizona came into 2015 thinking Pac-12 South title but is two losses away from not making a bowl. The offense has managed just 371 yards per game the past three weeks, which is subpar for them. Utah has won on the road against stronger teams this season, beating Oregon by 42 and Washington by 11. Arizona has a slight edge on offense, but Utah has a huge edge on defense (my No. 18 defense vs. No. 92 for Arizona). Utah also has one of the top special teams units in the country.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 38, Arizona 28
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 9 LSU Tigers(-7.5)
7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Ole Miss was a double-digit favorite over Arkansas, and I feel LSU is a stronger team. Arkansas always plays LSU tough (7-1 ATS the past eight meetings) and I've sided with Arkansas in almost all of them. This time the line value is with LSU off a loss at Alabama, in which the Tigers were outgained by 252 yards. I had Arkansas last week, and the Razorbacks upset an Ole Miss team that was in control of the SEC West. The Hogs got a miracle play on fourth-and-25 and then a second shot at the two-point conversion (thanks to a penalty) and won their second overtime game in three weeks.
Leonard Fournette has to have a breakout game after being held to 31 yards on 19 carries at Alabama. The Hogs defense is allowing 438 yards per game in SEC play and gives up 65 percent completions. Arkansas' receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries, while LSU has two of the best in Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre. LSU has the better offense, better defense, a huge edge on special teams (No. 8 versus No. 103), is coming off a loss and this game is at night in Death Valley.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 37, Arkansas 23
Miami Hurricanes (+13) at No. 23 North Carolina Tar Heels
3:30 p.m. ET
I picked North Carolina high in my magazine both of the past two years, and the Tar Heels have disappointed. Now they're not overachieving but simply playing to their talent level. They've outgained their foes by 118 yards per game, and their offense is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and completing 69 percent of its passes. Speaking of living up to their talent level, Miami played so far below it this season that coach Al Golden was let go. The Hurricanes are 2-0 under interim head coach Larry Scott and are as athletic as North Carolina (unlike Duke) and have a heady veteran quarterback. They almost upset Florida State on the road and will take this to the wire.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: North Carolina 37, Miami 31
Georgia Bulldogs (+1.5) at Auburn Tigers
Noon ET, CBS
I've had a good pulse on Auburn, picking them to beat Kentucky then going against them versus Arkansas and Ole Miss. Last week, I had Auburn plus the points and the Tigers won outright, beating A&M on the road, 26-10. Auburn is still being outgained by 48 yards per games, and that includes an FCS game. The Tigers defense is allowing 5.0 yards per carry in SEC play and 63 percent completions. Georgia is outgaining foes by 97 yards per game, and its defense is allowing 108 yards per game fewer than Auburn in SEC play and just 3.9 yards per carry and 49.5 percent completions.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 28, Auburn 21
No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 6 Baylor Bears (-2.5)
8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
My computer says Oklahoma is the second-best team in the country with both its offense and defense in the top seven. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator, and the Sooners have rushed for 316 yards per game and thrown for 354 yards per game the past three; their defense is holding opponents to 104 yards below their season average. Furthermore, they are plus-235 yards per game in Big 12 play. Baylor is "only" plus-174 yards per game facing basically the same Big 12 schedule. Baylor's defense is holding foes to 30 yards below their season average.
Last week, true freshman Jarrett Stidham got his first start and they beat Kansas State by only seven on the road (Oklahoma won at K-State 55-0). But I still like the Bears here. Over the past three years at home, Baylor is plus-360 yards per game with a 38-point average margin of victory! And the Bears have beaten Oklahoma by 29 and 34 points the past two seasons, respectively. Over the past five years, they're 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS at home versus ranked teams, and that includes four outright upsets. Young quarterbacks usually struggle in their first road starts, but Baylor led that Kansas State game 31-10 in the fourth quarter and now Stidham is home with experience.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 41, Oklahoma 34
No. 22 Temple Owls (-2.5) at South Florida Bulls
7:00 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports
I've been impressed with Temple, and while the Owls don't dominate statistically, they keep on winning. They're 8-1 and their only loss was to Notre Dame. They survived a hangover game last week and have won their road games by 15 points per game. While not dominant, they're outgaining their AAC foes by 57 yards per game. USF is a much-improved team but is minus-16 yards per game in the conference and has been outgained by six of eight FBS foes. I feel Temple is the stronger team and the Owls have a large special-teams edge (my No. 17 versus No. 93). With the line priced at less than a field goal, the Owls basically just have to win the game; I like them to do just that.
ATS pick: Temple
Score: Temple 25, USF 17
NC State Wolfpack at No. 16 Florida State Seminoles (-9)
12:30 p.m. ET
NC State is allowing just 296 yards per game on defense but has taken on exactly one offense that ranks in my top 50, which was versus Clemson (and they allowed 623 yards and 56 points at home). Florida State went into Death Valley and held that same offense to 16 points before yielding a late touchdown. Florida State has no shot at the ACC title, so it can play loose and free. There's no need to hold back Dalvin Cook, as the Seminoles have just Chattanooga on deck. The last five times Florida State has lost a game and played a regular-season game next, the Seminoles have gone 5-0, winning those games by an average score of 43-10. Florida State is home and not only has edges on offense and defense but also a large special-teams edge (my No. 18 versus No. 123)
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 34, NC State 17
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This year has started off on a solid note. In the first seven weeks, my selections have now gone 79-21 (79 percent) picking the straight-up winners and 54-44-2 (55 percent) against the spread.
No. 14 Michigan Wolverines at Indiana Hoosiers (+13.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Indiana has fared well versus the big boys of the Big Ten. Despite being down to their backup quarterback and running back against Ohio State, the Hoosiers were down seven and had the ball at the Buckeyes' 6-yard line at the end. They trailed Michigan State by only five, 31-26, with 5:00 to go before falling apart. They settled for a 28-yard field goal and trailed Iowa 21-20 in the fourth quarter in an eight-point loss. Jordan Howard rushed for 174 yards in that one, and Nate Sudfeld is healthy. Michigan was outgained by Minnesota 461-296 and needed a goal-line stand to win by three in its most recent Big Ten road trip. Indiana lost by eight at home to Iowa and is now getting 13.5 from Michigan? I like the Hoosiers to cover this number.
ATS pick: Indiana
Score: Michigan 33, Indiana 28
No. 1 Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange(+28)
3:30 p.m. ET ABC
I have Clemson written in pen in my playoff bracket, as the Tigers shouldn't be tested the rest of the year. Syracuse will probably be without Eric Dungey, the best quarterback replacement for Terrel Hunt, who was lost in the opener. I still will take the points with the home 'dog. Zack Mahoney also got the start against LSU, and Syracuse lost by just 10 at home. Syracuse has been blown out in three road games but is 3-2 at home, almost upsetting a ranked Pitt in its other loss. Clemson is coming off its biggest win of the season and doesn't need style points.
ATS pick: Syracuse
Score: Clemson 38, Syracuse 18
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7.5) at No. 17Mississippi State Bulldogs
3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
The media (and I) picked Mississippi State to finish last in the SEC West, and the Bulldogs have proved the experts wrong. Alabama is 3-7 ATS as an away favorite, and Mississippi State is 8-1 ATS as a 'dog. The Bulldogs will have a fired-up home crowd with the cowbells ringing. They have a mobile quarterback in Dak Prescott, a weapon the Tide defense has struggled against. My computer had Alabama by 10 over LSU and now has them beating the Bulldogs by seven, so I'm a little concerned about this pick. The numbers and angles all favor Mississippi State, but I'm still taking the Tide.
As impressive as Mississippi State has been, the Bulldogs are just plus-74 yards per game against a cupcake schedule (I rate it No. 60) and trailed LSU 21-6 in the fourth quarter in their toughest game. Alabama is plus-158 yards per game and has faced my third-toughest schedule. Alabama controls its destiny and has Charleston Southern on deck. Its defense is No. 1 in the country, holding foes to 184 yards per game below their season averages. Mississippi State is actually allowing 4.7 yards per carry in the SEC and 59 percent completions.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Mississippi State 17
No. 10 Utah Utes (-6) at Arizona Wildcats
10:00 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
No one has talked about them since the USC loss, but the Utes control their own destiny in the Pac-12 and could end up in the CFP. The Utes are playing with legitimate revenge after being upset at home 42-10 by the Wildcats last year (Arizona's third straight series win). Arizona came into 2015 thinking Pac-12 South title but is two losses away from not making a bowl. The offense has managed just 371 yards per game the past three weeks, which is subpar for them. Utah has won on the road against stronger teams this season, beating Oregon by 42 and Washington by 11. Arizona has a slight edge on offense, but Utah has a huge edge on defense (my No. 18 defense vs. No. 92 for Arizona). Utah also has one of the top special teams units in the country.
ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 38, Arizona 28
Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 9 LSU Tigers(-7.5)
7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Ole Miss was a double-digit favorite over Arkansas, and I feel LSU is a stronger team. Arkansas always plays LSU tough (7-1 ATS the past eight meetings) and I've sided with Arkansas in almost all of them. This time the line value is with LSU off a loss at Alabama, in which the Tigers were outgained by 252 yards. I had Arkansas last week, and the Razorbacks upset an Ole Miss team that was in control of the SEC West. The Hogs got a miracle play on fourth-and-25 and then a second shot at the two-point conversion (thanks to a penalty) and won their second overtime game in three weeks.
Leonard Fournette has to have a breakout game after being held to 31 yards on 19 carries at Alabama. The Hogs defense is allowing 438 yards per game in SEC play and gives up 65 percent completions. Arkansas' receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries, while LSU has two of the best in Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre. LSU has the better offense, better defense, a huge edge on special teams (No. 8 versus No. 103), is coming off a loss and this game is at night in Death Valley.
ATS pick: LSU
Score: LSU 37, Arkansas 23
Miami Hurricanes (+13) at No. 23 North Carolina Tar Heels
3:30 p.m. ET
I picked North Carolina high in my magazine both of the past two years, and the Tar Heels have disappointed. Now they're not overachieving but simply playing to their talent level. They've outgained their foes by 118 yards per game, and their offense is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and completing 69 percent of its passes. Speaking of living up to their talent level, Miami played so far below it this season that coach Al Golden was let go. The Hurricanes are 2-0 under interim head coach Larry Scott and are as athletic as North Carolina (unlike Duke) and have a heady veteran quarterback. They almost upset Florida State on the road and will take this to the wire.
ATS pick: Miami
Score: North Carolina 37, Miami 31
Georgia Bulldogs (+1.5) at Auburn Tigers
Noon ET, CBS
I've had a good pulse on Auburn, picking them to beat Kentucky then going against them versus Arkansas and Ole Miss. Last week, I had Auburn plus the points and the Tigers won outright, beating A&M on the road, 26-10. Auburn is still being outgained by 48 yards per games, and that includes an FCS game. The Tigers defense is allowing 5.0 yards per carry in SEC play and 63 percent completions. Georgia is outgaining foes by 97 yards per game, and its defense is allowing 108 yards per game fewer than Auburn in SEC play and just 3.9 yards per carry and 49.5 percent completions.
ATS pick: Georgia
Score: Georgia 28, Auburn 21
No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners at No. 6 Baylor Bears (-2.5)
8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
My computer says Oklahoma is the second-best team in the country with both its offense and defense in the top seven. Lincoln Riley is finding his groove as offensive coordinator, and the Sooners have rushed for 316 yards per game and thrown for 354 yards per game the past three; their defense is holding opponents to 104 yards below their season average. Furthermore, they are plus-235 yards per game in Big 12 play. Baylor is "only" plus-174 yards per game facing basically the same Big 12 schedule. Baylor's defense is holding foes to 30 yards below their season average.
Last week, true freshman Jarrett Stidham got his first start and they beat Kansas State by only seven on the road (Oklahoma won at K-State 55-0). But I still like the Bears here. Over the past three years at home, Baylor is plus-360 yards per game with a 38-point average margin of victory! And the Bears have beaten Oklahoma by 29 and 34 points the past two seasons, respectively. Over the past five years, they're 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS at home versus ranked teams, and that includes four outright upsets. Young quarterbacks usually struggle in their first road starts, but Baylor led that Kansas State game 31-10 in the fourth quarter and now Stidham is home with experience.
ATS pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 41, Oklahoma 34
No. 22 Temple Owls (-2.5) at South Florida Bulls
7:00 p.m. ET, CBS College Sports
I've been impressed with Temple, and while the Owls don't dominate statistically, they keep on winning. They're 8-1 and their only loss was to Notre Dame. They survived a hangover game last week and have won their road games by 15 points per game. While not dominant, they're outgaining their AAC foes by 57 yards per game. USF is a much-improved team but is minus-16 yards per game in the conference and has been outgained by six of eight FBS foes. I feel Temple is the stronger team and the Owls have a large special-teams edge (my No. 17 versus No. 93). With the line priced at less than a field goal, the Owls basically just have to win the game; I like them to do just that.
ATS pick: Temple
Score: Temple 25, USF 17
NC State Wolfpack at No. 16 Florida State Seminoles (-9)
12:30 p.m. ET
NC State is allowing just 296 yards per game on defense but has taken on exactly one offense that ranks in my top 50, which was versus Clemson (and they allowed 623 yards and 56 points at home). Florida State went into Death Valley and held that same offense to 16 points before yielding a late touchdown. Florida State has no shot at the ACC title, so it can play loose and free. There's no need to hold back Dalvin Cook, as the Seminoles have just Chattanooga on deck. The last five times Florida State has lost a game and played a regular-season game next, the Seminoles have gone 5-0, winning those games by an average score of 43-10. Florida State is home and not only has edges on offense and defense but also a large special-teams edge (my No. 18 versus No. 123)
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 34, NC State 17
