PLAYBOOK: Tue (too late now) through Thu
LIBERTY over Florida International by 24
In the Beginning, the TV Networks created football seven days a week…and it was good. We wave the green flag on the nightly football craze with this Conference USA matchup featuring a Liberty team that had an unwanted bye vs. App State, thanks to the destruction of Helene. FIU has named their stadium after Pitbull and will be featuring “Miami Vice” uniforms later this month. Perhaps this is a diversionary tactic to keep your eyes trained on something other than FIU football. The Panthers are also playing shorthanded in the receiving corps, forcing a down lineman to play tight end until two regulars are healthy. During the “Born in the USA” Era, teams that are dogs of 17 or more points are 40-64-4 ATS when facing an unbeaten team, including 17-33-1 ATS when coming off a win. Liberty boasts a heavenly 26-2 SU and 17-8 ATS mark during the first half of the season (through game sixes) and 15-3 ATS in games where they surrender 22.5 or fewer PPG. Time to play an oldie, Marc’s “Ruby Tuesday” from 2010’s Black Book, which says regular season road teams coming off a SUATS win (FIU beat La. Tech last week) are just 4-14 SU and 7-11 ATS since 2000 including 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS dating back to 2017. If ‘Til Tuesday had Tuesday Weld sing Ruby Tuesday, we would have Marc’s Tuesday Trifecta. For now, Goodbye, Ruby Tuesday.
JACKSONVILLE STATE over New Mexico State by 24
Rich Rodriguez’s JSU Gamecocks were cruising to a 10-win season last year until they ran into another team on its way to 10 wins, New Mexico State, who stiffed the Cocks 20-17. NMS wound up with 10 wins for the first time since 1960. JSU ended with nine W’s. 2024 hasn’t been kind to either team; JSU started 0-3 on the scoreboard and in the stats sheets before a dramatic turnaround in back-to-back wins, outscoring foes 107-31. The Aggies are 1-4 and have been outgained by an average of 190 yards per game. This doesn’t seem like that’s going to change Wednesday in Alabama, particularly when we tell you that in the very short time the Gamecocks have been in FBS, they are 2-0 SUATS when favored by double-digits with both wins by 39 points. To paraphrase Peter Griffin, “we may be idiots sir, but one thing we are not, are idiots.”
JAMES MADISON over Coastal Carolina by 3
The Mad Men got to be part of the college football glitterati, joining the likes of Notre Dame, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss as double-digit favorite WTF losers this season. Louisiana-Monroe stunned J. Mad despite the Dukes outgaining them by 141 yards. The first meetings between CCU and JMU have not been pretty, as the Chanticleers were beheaded by the Dukes 56-14 and 47-7. What makes this year’s edition different are the facts ma’am, just the facts. The Facts of Life say 4-1 teams in game six, coming off a loss, are only 8-10 SU and 7-11 ATS when hosting .800 or greater teams, including 2-8 ATS when owning a defense that gives up more than 17 PPG. Meanwhile, all CCU does is win, now 39-12 over the past four plus years, including 4-1 this season. Give the Chants points at your own risk because CCU is 12-5 ATS when on the take, including 10-1 SU and 9-1-1 ATS when trying to John Wick, their opponent. No, running around like a chicken with your head cut off at the sportsbook; just take aim at the Carolina Coast.
LOUSIANA TECH over Middle Tennessee State by 8
The Blue Raiders are turning into a middle-of-the-highway sinkhole, already 1-4 this season after 4-8 in 2023. Last year, they were occasionally respectable, losing the stats battle by three yards per game. This year, it’s -100 net yards. Despite being 1-3, the Techsters are winning the numbers game by an average of 27 YPG, thanks to a stiff defense ranked 24th in FBS, giving up 299.5 yards per game. MTSU knocked off the Bulldogs last year, but the harsh blue spotlight of truth shines in the eyes of the Blue Raiders, who are godawful when hitting the road against teams seeking vengeance, going 1-11 SU and 2-9-1 ATS in that role. Toss in Terry Bradshaw’s alma mater being 6-1 ATS in revenge games when coming off a loss. We often quote philosopher Gilles Deleuze around the water cooler, and he reminds us, “The spirit of revenge is the principle on which our whole psychology depends.” All this time, you thought Gilles Deleuze was the backup goalie on the 1989 Quebec Nordiques.
WESTERN KENTUCKY over Utep by 16
Handicapping rules, which may or may not have been hanging in the Cincinnati Reds’ clubhouse when Pete Rose managed (RIP Charley Hustle), dictate that you do not lay points with bad defenses. Amazingly, we’re not talking about the winless Miners but the Hilltoppers, whose defense you will have to spend some time scrolling down the list until you get to the 97th ranking. Miners coach Scotty Walden is playing the “we’re getting better one game at a time” card. The UTEP media bragged about a run game that posted 119 yards on 34 carries, a 3.5 per rush average. This tells us Walden isn’t playing with a full deck, literally and figuratively, but maybe they can unlock a 4.0-per-rush average against the leaky WKU defense. The Hilltoppers had Boston College on the run into the fourth quarter two weeks ago, but to no one’s surprise, the defense gave out late, and BC eked out a win. There are other golden handicapping numbers here, such as UTEP being 7-1 ATS since 1990 against teams coming off three straight ATS wins, plus WKU being 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 20 or fewer when coming off a bye. Follow the golden rules: Do for yourself what you want others to do for you.
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