PLAYBOOK NCAA EARLIES
Tuesday, Oct 29
New Mexico State over FIU by 3
It’s not likely either of these teams will darken the door of a bowl game this season, but both need a win to keep alive post-season hopes slimmer than a European runway model. All you need to know about NMSU is that they have forced just three turnovers this year, leaving them -10 in the turnover margin. That may be great for carb-hating Keto dieters, but it makes for lousy football. The Aggies are 0-3 on the road this year but have tasted success outside the desert in seven of their last ten road games. The Panthers benched QB Keyone Jenkins for poor play last Tuesday in a desultory loss at home, but Jenkins is likely to be in the shotgun for this one. FIU has been
0-8 ATS in the last eight games as the sportsbook team of record, and while the Aggies are living the Ruby Tuesday lifestyle, you will find FIU in the all-you-can-eat
SMART BOX. Too many extra calories and too many extra points for the Golden Panthers to carry.
SAM HOUSTON STATE over Louisiana Tech by 1
The Techsters have grabbed two of their last three, and there is a little extra Louisiana Tech hot sauce in this matchup. La. Tech lost last year to Sam Houston as a 7.5-point favorite, losing by 15 despite outgaining the Bearkats by 100 yards. Keep an eye out for Sam Houston QB Hunter Watson’s probable return, he missed last week, and it showed. Give the Bearkats credit; in just their third season as an FBS program, the 6-2/3-1 Kats are fighting for a conference title, but (you knew that was coming) Sam Houston is about as effective as Yosemite Sam when you make the Bearkats favored, just 1-3 ATS as conference home favorites since 2022. That, combined with Tech being
8-1 ATS with revenge coming off back
-to-back losses vs. teams with at least one loss staples it shut.
TEXAS STATE over Louisiana by 10
The university formerly known as UL-Lafayette may well be 6-1/3-0, but under Coach Michael Desormeaux, they are
2-7 SU and
1-8 ATS when coming off a win, including a depressing 0-3 SUATS from Game Eight on. Meanwhile, back on San Marcos Ranch, Texas State’s reputation for getting revenge is well-earned. The Bobcats are
4-0 SUATS (3-0 this year), and 2-0 SUATS as a home favorite under GK Kinne when coming off a home favorite loss with an average win margin of 20. The Bobcats are also in a special place with nine other FBS teams, as they are winning the stats battle in each game so far this season. Look for the Bobcats to emulate The Stranger from “High Plains Drifter.”
Wednesday, Oct 30
Jacksonville State over LIBERTY by 3
The Flames were liberated from an undefeated season in one of this year’s biggest upsets when Kennesaw State stunned LU by 3. Liberty was a 27-point favorite, and that immediately placed them in our “Bubble Burst” handcuffs. The Flames are 10-2 ATS as the favorite against a team that was favored in its last game, but this is a way better Jacksonville State team than the 0-3 SUATS bunch we were making fun of in previous issues. Suddenly, Rich Rod’s team has rammed the rod down the throats of four straight teams, including a 400-plus yards rushing performance last week. That’s in line with an average +236 yards per game edge for JSU, and we’re counting on a hot Cocks team burning the Flames.
WESTERN KENTUCKY over Kennesaw State by 28
KSU will answer the age-old question posed by the Alan Parsons Project, “Where Do We Go from Here?” Or maybe we quote Neil Young, “It’s better to burn out than fade away.”? The bottom line is we expect a rather dramatic crash, boom, bang by the Owls against an always solid WKU bunch, once again fighting for conference superiority. Caden Veltkamp accounted for four scores last week, and the WKU QB has helped his team to a 4-0 SUATS mark with an average winning margin of 15, better than the spread. Kennesaw is 1-6 and is 0-7 In the Stats by -158 yards per game. Hell froze over last week, but in the age of climate change, the ice has already melted like an ice cream cake at a 6-year-old’s birthday party.
Thursday, Oct 31
Tulane over CHARLOTTE by 11
The Green Wave is fighting the Army and the Navy for the high ground and the high seas in the American, all three unbeaten in conference play. QB Darian Mensah has been one of the AAC‘s best, thanks to a 15:3 TD/INT ratio, while RB Makhi Hughes rushed for 195 yards vs. North Texas last week and has 931 yards this season. Charlotte outgained Navy two weeks ago and held the Mids to a season-low 291 yards but couldn’t pull off the upset then or vs. Memphis last week. The 49ers had the lead until giving up the losing score with 31 seconds left. Both teams may not be at their emotional peak for this one, and we offer this advice to rescue your bank balance…Tulane is 4-16 SU and 6-14 ATS away when coming off a road win. The Green Wave locked down a third straight bowl season, and the prospects of a letdown against the Niners are enough to point our Geiger counters in a different direction.