Easy Pickins
NOTRE DAME (-12.5) by 21.53 over Navy at East Rutherford - Saturday, October 26. Army and Navy are both undefeated entering week 9 for the first time since 1945. In 1954, Notre Dame, Navy and Army were year-end ranked 4th, 5th and 7th - in that order. Notre Dame will play both of them this year in neutral games with this week's contest in East Rutherford and the Army game at Yankee Stadium. Everyone who doesn't love the Fighting Irish will be pulling for the Midshipmen and the Black Knights in those games. Navy is 4th nationally in rushing while Notre Dame is 30th in stopping the run. But the bottom line is that teams are playing drastically incomparable schedules with Navy's SOS at 85 and Notre Dame's at 19. The computer's power rating for each team has hardly changed since the preseason and it favored the Irish by 23.66 before game was played. This week, the trend line is 19.39.
TOLEDO (-2.5) by 5.36 over Bowling Green - Saturday, October 26. The teams are statistically even on both side of the ball and we were ready to take the Rockets simply based on home field advantage, but it helps that the computer trend line increases the computer margin to 8.61.
MINNESOTA (-4.50) by 11.56 over Maryland - Saturday, October 26. The computer trend line makes it even easier to agree with this pick as it raises the number to 14.06. The Golden Gophers boast the conference's second-best defense, behind Ohio State, allowing just 262 yards per game. They also have the No. 4 scoring defense in a conference that has 11 schools allowing fewer than 20 points a game. Maryland isn't one of those as the Terps have allowed 24.9 to rank next-to-last and 372 yards to rank 16th out of 18 schools. Maryland relies on the passing game for more than a third of its yardage and the Gophers rank 2nd in stopping the pass with 13 interceptions against just 3 TD's. Minnesota will need that defense to help get the job done, because its offense only ranks 15th.
OHIO STATE (25.5) by 33.71 over Nebraska - Saturday, October 26. Nebraska could be headed toward another ugly loss after falling 56-7 at Indiana this past Saturday. The computer trend line takes the margin up to nearly 37 points (36.98), signaling that it's almost impossible that the 'Huskers will get just their second win over the Buckeyes in their 11th meeting. They've currently lost 8 straight to Ohio State and they are 0-6 all-time in Columbus.
Utsa (-7.5) by 16.88 over TULSA - Saturday, October 26. The computer trend line lowers the number a little to 13.46 points, but that's still substantially above the spread. UTSA outranks Tulsa on offense 6th to 9th among AAC schools, and 5th to 12th on defense. This is only the second time the schools have met and the first since 2013 when the Roadrunners prevailed 34-15 at UTSA.
Hold Your Horses
TEXAS A&M (-2.5) by 0.93 over Louisiana State - Saturday, October 26. The computer projected the Aggies to go 10-2, 7-1 in their first season under Mike Elko while the SEC media had them picked 9th. Nonetheless, we will take the Bayou Bengals (6-1, 3-0) on this game over the Aggies (6-1, 4-0) and their 12th man fans in a battle for solo first-place in the SEC. The computer trend line has LSU by 1.43.
Upsets
Georgia Southern by 0.17 over OLD DOMINION (-2) - Thursday, October 24. The computer trend line goes with Old Dominion (3-4, 2-1) by 2.55 as the Monarchs look to beat the Eagles for the second straight time after Georgia Southern (5-2, 3-0) won the first meetings as FBS schools in 2022. These teams also met twice in the FCS playoffs in 2011 and 2012 with the Eagles winning both of those matches. ODU has had a balanced run/pass attack with averages of 176 on the ground and 159 through the air. Georgia Southern is 13th out of 14 Sun Belt teams in total defense. On offense, the Eagles have averaged 245 passing and 129 rushing. ODU's pass defense ranks near the bottom of the conference, allowing 239 per game, BUT the Monarchs have also picked off 9 passes while allowing 9 TD's. ODU's run defense is middle of the pack in the Sun Belt. Our human pick goes with the computer upset play.
West Virginia by 4.44 over ARIZONA (-3) - Saturday, October 26. This is the first-ever meeting between these schools and our human reaction goes against the computer upset pick, but the computer trend line re-enforces the upset pick with a margin of 7.84 for WVU. West Virginia (3-4, 2-2) is coming off one of its worst performances - if not it's absolute worst - in last Saturday's home game against Kansas State when the 'Eers took a 45-18 butt-kicking. That came a week after letting Iowa State beat them in Charleston by a 28-16 count. WVU managed to gain 354 yards vs. the Cyclones but only 295 vs. the Wildcats. The 'Eers surrendered roughly 400 yards in each game, and lost the turnover battle for the 4th and 5th times this season by tossing 2 picks in each game and getting no takeaways. WVU is 2nd-worst in the conference in passer rating. Arizona (3-4, 1-3) has dropped three straight since getting an upset win at Utah for its only Big 12 victory. The 'Cats are 6th in the conference in passing yards per game, but Noah Fifita has thrown more picks than TD's (10-9) and his completion percentage has dropped from 72% a year ago as a freshman to 59% this year. This would seem to be an opportunity for the WVU pass defense to win the day, but the team has allowed 15 TD's while snaring only 3 INT's. The Mountaineers are minus-7 in turnover ratio, and Arizona is minus-4.
Oklahoma State by 2.94 over BAYLOR (-6.5) - Saturday, October 26. It's Big 12 week in the Upset Picks category, and we're not too keen on this one. The computer trend line actually has Baylor by 6.01. Oklahoma State is winless in the Big 12 (3-4 0-4) after going 3-0 against a non-conference slate. Last week's 38-35 loss at BYU was a heartbreaker for the Cowboys after they re-took the lead with 1:13, only to lose it with 10 seconds remaining. Baylor isn't much better (3-4, 1-3), but may have regained some confidence with this past weekend's 59-35 win at Texas Tech that handed the Red Raiders their first conference loss. Bears QB Sawyer Robertson threw 5 TD's in that game.
Brigham Young by 3.28 over UCF (-1.5) - Saturday, October 26. As noted above in our preview of the Oklahoma State-BYU game this past weekend, the Cougars rescued victory from the jaws of defeat by scoring the game-winning TD with 10 seconds left after falling behind just 63 seconds earlier. BYU is one of just 10 remaining undefeated teams and is ranked 16th in the Congrove Computer Rankings, 11th in the Super 16 Poll, and 12th in the AFCA Coaches' Poll. They are tied with Iowa State atop the Big 12 as both have records of 7-0 over-all and 4-0 in league play. The computer trend line has BYU by a much wider margin of 10.78 points. UCF is just 3-4 over-all and 1-3 in the Big 12, despite topping the conference in total offense and ranking 14th nationally. But the Knights are 11th in total defense in the Big 12 while BYU ranks 4th. These teams have only met 3 times previously and BYU's only loss was in Orlando back in 2014. The last meeting meeting came in the Boca Raton Bowl in the Covid season and the Cougars rolled a to a 49-24 win in that game. Against the spread this season, UCF is 4-3 over-all and 2-2 at home, while BYU is 6-1 over-all and 3-1 on the road.
HAWAII by 5.52 over Nevada (-1.5) - Saturday, October 26. The computer trend line flips the pick to Nevada by 5.21 points as its power rating has increased by 11.14 points since opening week. Hawaii's has fallen 1.67 points. But the Wolf Pack, just like the Warriors, have not won a conference game. Both schools are 0-2 in the MWC while Nevada is 3-5 over-all and Hawaii is 2-5. Nevada has averaged 38.5 yards more per game and 6.8 more points. Hawaii has allowed 43.4 fewer yards and 3.2 less points. The Wolf Pack bring a more balanced attack while the Warriors have depended heavily on the passing game that has accounted for 75% of their total yards. Hawaii is 3-1 ATS at home. Nevada is 3-1-1 ATS on the road. Hawaii trails 15-13 in the series after winning 4 of the last 5 meetings, and the Warriors are 10-6 at home vs. the Wolf Pack.
STANFORD by 0.05 over Wake Forest (-2.3) - Saturday, October 26. Stanford won its ACC opener on the road, but has since dropped 3 straight while being held to 14 points in two of those games, and to just 7 in the other. That's why the Cardinal are 16th in the 17-team league in total offense and scoring. The defense isn't much better as it ranks 14th, but Wake is last. The only prior meetings between these teams was a home-and-home deal in 2009 and 2010 when Andrew Luck was the QB for the Cardinal. Wake won a total of 8 games in those two seasons while Stanford won 24. The computer trend line has the Deacs by 0.95.
College football rankings and accurate weekly picks. Exclusive content, features, and analysis.
www.collegefootballpoll.com