Easy Pickins
ARMY (-15.5) by 17.01 over East Carolina - Saturday, October 19. No one has scored more than 14 points on the Army defense. The Black Knights (6-0, 5-0) have defeated every opponent by at least 17 points, and 23 at home. Army is 1st in the American in total defense, 3rd in total offense, and 1st in rushing offense. The Pirates (3-3, 1-1) are 8th in total offense and 7th in total defense. East Carolina is 8-0 all-time vs. Army, but all of those games were played between 1995 and 2004.
NAVY (-16.5) by 18.90 over Charlotte - Saturday, October 19. Charlotte is last in the American on defense, and 12th out of 14 teams on offense. Navy is 2nd on offense and 9th on defense. The defense numbers would be better, but the Midshipmen allowed 659 yards at Memphis and still won by 12 points, 56-44. We won't surprised if this line balloons to 19 by game day which would cancel this pick.
Kentucky (-1.5) by 3.5 over FLORIDA - Saturday, October 19. This game opened in favor of Florida (-1.5) and quickly flipped to Kentucky after we posted it as an upset play in favor of the Wildcats. Florida QB Graham Mertz is out for the season with a torn ACL which means the Gators MUST now rely on freshman DJ Lagway. Mertz was 72-of-94 (76.6%) for 791 yards with 6 TD's and 2 INT's and a passer rating of 164.09. Lagway is 47-of-72 (65.3%) for 765 yards with 5 TD's and 4 INT's which somehow translates to a passer rating of 166.34. Neither has been a running threat. Both Florida and Kentucky offenses have been somewhat anemic as the Gators rank 11th in the SEC in yards per game and the Wildcats ranks 15th in a 16-team league. But Kentucky's defense ranks 3rd and Florida gets that ominous 15th spot. Billy Napier is 0-2 vs. Kentucky.and the 'Cats have taken 3 straight in the series. Kentucky has also won 2 of the last 3 in Gainesville.
TEXAS (-4.5) by 10.22 over Georgia - Saturday, October 19. Texas has actually dropped 6.79 power points since the start of the season, but Georgia has dropped 10.5. That effectively gives the Longhorns a computer trend margin of roughly 14 points. Georgia opened as a 1.5-point favorite. We don't expect a 14-point win, or even a 10-point win. In fact, we suggest staying away if the line goes above 5.5 as we note that the over/under is just 46.5 total points. Texas leads the nation on total defense, but the argument has been made that the Longhorns haven't faced a really good offense. Georgia is 27th on offense, which is 41 spots above the highest-ranked offense that Texas has played (UTSA, 68th). But the
'Dawgs are also, oddly enough, 27th on defense while Texas ranks 7th on offense.
Hold Your Horses
WASHINGTON STATE (-18.5) by 9.91 over Hawaii - Saturday, October 19. Ashton Jaunty eventually wore down Hawaii last week in a 28-7 Boise State win on the island. That 21-point loss is the Warriors' largest of the season.
Upsets
Florida State by 9.07 over DUKE (-3.5) - Friday, October 18. Other than Miami, the state of Florida has been a train wreck for college football this year. The Florida Gators are 3-3 (1-2, SEC), The the Knights are 3-3 (1-2, Big 12), FAU is 2-4 (0-2, American) and FIU is 2-4 (1-1, CUSA). The 'Noles are 1-5 (1-4, ACC) and an even bigger train wreck, considering they were a preseason Top 10 team with expectations of winning the conference and representing it in the new 12- team playoff. As it stands, fans are calling for Mike Norvell's head, though not nearly as loudly as Gator fans are calling for Billy Napier's head. Can FSU win this game against Duke? Yes. Should they? Based on talent, yes. Will they? It seems doubtful, especially since DJ Uigalelei appears to be out for the season with a hand injury that required surgery a little over a week ago. Freshman Brock Glenn was 23-of-41 against Clemson in a 29-13 loss. Not bad for for getting thrown into the fire against the Tigers. Uigalelei was only completing 53.8% of his passes and Glenn completed 51.1%. Neither of those numbers will get it done in the long run. FSU has no run game outside of Lawrance Toafili and he is only averaging 38.33 yards per game. The offense is last in the conference and the defense ranks next-to-last. Duke is just 14th on offense, but 2nd on defense. The Blue Devils are 5-1 after suffering their first defeat last Saturday at Georgia Tech.
Wake Forest by 0.92 over UCONN (-1.5) - Saturday, October 19. This game opened in favor of Wake Forest (2-4, 1-2 ACC) by 4.5, but quickly moved to UConn (4-2, independent) by 1.5 and had stayed there all week, as of Wednesday morning. The Deacs are 65th nationally (10th in the ACC) on offense, and 129th on defense (last in the ACC). UConn is 28th on offense and 51st on defense. We wouldn't be completely stunned if Wake won this game, but all indicators seem to point to the homestanding Huskies.
WEST VIRGINIA by 1.37 over Kansas State (2.5) - Saturday, October 19. West Virginia (3-3, 2-1) and Kansas State (5-1, 2-1) both need this game badly to stay in the Big 12 hunt. All three WVU losses have been to ranked teams, two of which are now in the top 10 with Penn State moving up to No. 3 this week and Iowa State to No. 9. Both of those games were played in Morgantown. Now, Kansas State invades Milan Puskar Stadium with hopes of landing the same result after a thrilling 31-28 win at Colorado last Saturday. These tams are statistically pretty much even on both sides of the ball so it's hard to call this contest anything but a toss-up.
LOUISVILLE by 0.86 over Miami, FL (-4.5) - Saturday, October 19. If we're all being honest, Miami should already have 2 losses. First, the 'Canes get a ridiculous overturn of Virginia Tech's game-winning Hail Mary TD pass, and then gets the advantage of an even more egregious no-call on obvious targeting vs. Cal which would have kept the ball and Miami never would have had a chance for the game-winning drive. The question is will they need luck again at Louisville, or will they play a 60-minute game? the 'Ville is 5th on offense in the ACC and 6th on defense. Miami ranks 1st on both sides of the ball, but the numbers are padded in games against Florida A&M and Ball State. The Cards have had their defense issues, too, allowing at least 410 yards to all three previous ACC foes. Miami has had to rally down from 10 down in the fourth quarter to Virginia Tech, and from 20 down in the 4th quarter at Cal. That's a sure way to eventually get bit.
UTAH STATE by 9.13 over New Mexico (-2.5) - Saturday, October 19. As of late Thursday night, the line ranged from 2.5 to 1.5 at the sportsbooks. The computer's number for the Aggies (9.13) should be ignored, but a 3 to 5 point swing in this game would be all that's needed for them to pull the upset. Utah State is 1-5 with only win over FCS Robert Morris, but lost all others by at least 16. Beat Lobos 44-41 (OT) in Albuquerque 8 games ago (11/24/23) for last FBS win and 7th straight in series. New Mexico is 2-4 after BTB wins vs New Mexico State and Air Force. These schools are 2nd (Utah State) and 3rd in the MWC in total offense. Aggies are 2nd in pass offense, but a whopping 10 INT's contribute to them being minus-8 in gives and takes. On defense, both are at the bottom with Utah State 11th and New Mexico 12th. These teams gain an average of more than 450 yards, but give up nearly 500. The over/under seems low at 77.5.
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