PLAYBOOK: TUE - THU
TUESDAY, OCT 15
SOUTH ALABAMA over Troy by 6
If you watch a South Alabama game, you will get offense from both teams. The Jags are ranked 17th in yards per game in offense and 118th in defense, giving up 140 yards per game more than in 2023. Troy has taken a hard fall from last year, but you could see it coming given the lack of returning experience, ranked 129th with just six starters back. The senior classes from 2022 and 2023 won 23 games combined, exactly 22 more than the Trojans have going into Tuesday night. Yet, we have found some hope for Troy, an 11-6-1 ATS mark as a double-digit road dog and 6-0 SUATS success in the last six games of this series combined with USA’s 5-10 ATS chunk of mediocrity as a double-digit favorite. Thanks to injuries, Troy’s offense hasn’t completely settled on a starting QB, but they have a stud WR in Devonte Ross, who should be able to move comfortably through the turnstile secondary of the Jaguars that ranks last in the Sun Belt.SOUTH ALABAMA over Troy by 6
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE over Kennesaw State by 14
Egad, MTSU being a double-digit favorite is a major indictment of Kennesaw State. The Blue Man Group is 1-5 In the Stats by an average of 100 yards per game, and they are the big favorite here. Kennesaw State is being outgained by 224 yards per game and is coming off surrendering 577 yards in a loss to Jacksonville State. The Blue was raided for 500 yards by Louisiana Tech, the third time MTSU has given up that many yards. Another reminder: they are a double-digit favorite. They have given up 40 or more points four times, and again, they are a big favorite in this game. MTSU is ranked 125th defensively, Kennesaw #115. Middle does have the conference’s leading passer in junior Nick Vattiano, who is making his 19th straight start on Tuesday. You don’t have to worry about “stopping the run” against MTSU; they do it for you and are ranked last in the conference in rushing offense. The Blue Light Special is Middle’s sterling 16-1 SU and 11-5-1 ATS mark as chalk of seven or more. Kennesaw is looking for its first FBS win after success at the FCS level. What we need is to arrange the “Playbook Bowl” between Kennesaw and Kent State, the two worst in the nation this year. The winner gets a year’s supply of stale bagels.
Louisiana Tech over NEW MEXICO STATE by 10
Another rough one on Tuesday with New Mexico State dragging in a five-game losing streak and being outscored by 118 points, connecting around 40 percent of its passes and hitting 31.5% of third downs. The Bulldogs are the Big Dogs of this awful Tuesday night slate with a record of 2-3 and coming off routing MTSU. Tech will have to win in the air, as their leading rusher through five games has a total of 108 yards. Undoubtedly, the Techsters are the superior crew, but here comes Ruby Tuesday again to point out that the away team on Tuesday, coming off a SUATS win, is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS since 2017. Tech is also a terrible 1-6 ATS in weekday games, while the Aggies are just terrible. NMSU has been crushed every game by an average of -200 net yards. It’s hard to believe the Aggies won 10 games last year because they’re like a bowler who shot 300 in one game, then 160 in the next. We’re not sure even Walter White’s infamous “Blue Sky” will ease the pain for New Mexico State football this year.
WEDNESDAY, OCT 16
Western Kentucky over SAM HOUSTON STATE by 3
Wednesday’s here to save the early week with a strong matchup between the 4-2 Hilltoppers and 5-1 Sam Houston. Both teams have a legit shot at winning the conference regular season title, sitting at 2-0, tied with Jacksonville State for second behind 3-0 Liberty. The Bearkats opened FBS Year One with an eight-game losing streak but have gone 8-2 since. QB Hunter Watson is a legit dual threat, with nine combined touchdowns, while his Hilltoppers counterpart Caden Veltkamp has 11 TD passes and four on the ground. WKU has recovered nicely from a 63-point loss to Alabama in Week 1 and looks like a bowl team for the 10th time in 11 years. WKU has shown strength on the road, going 15-4-1 ATS as a road dog in the Fun Belt, including a 6-0 ATS run with a winning record that will penetrate the foggiest of brains. Hilltoppers’ Head Coach Tyson Helton also carries a rep for putting cash in people’s pockets, going 10-5 SUATS road record after a previous loss. Much as we are enamored with SHSU and their turnaround, a 1-4 outright record against winning teams is a giant STOP sign even Mr. Magoo could see.
Florida International over UTEP by 8
We’ve gone from the ridiculous to the sublime and now back to the ridiculous. To borrow a tennis term, UTEP has been bageled at 0-6 while scoring 16 PPG. FIU at least has a win but also somehow lost to Monmouth (that’s to Monmouth, not at Monmouth, although the Daily Racing Form wouldn’t have nice things to say about the Panthers), losing the stats in five of six. But it’s on the schedule, so load ‘em in the starting gate, and we’re off. Making matters worse, FIU has been out-yarded in 15 of its last 17 games yet finds itself the road favorite, which sums up 2024 UTEP football in a sentence. The Miners pulled off the upset last year in Miami while being a 3.5-point underdog, and we can’t see back-to-back wins for UTEP, even one year apart.
THURSDAY, OCT 17
VIRGINIA TECH over Boston College by 3
It can’t be a good sign in Blacksburg when the Sports Illustrated Virginia Tech page asks, “Why Do the Hokies Keep Making Coaching Errors?” VPI is 5-1 ATS as a conference favorite of 7 or greater but 1-9 ATS when coming off a road win, such as Week 5’s win over The Tree at Stanford. Coming off rest, it takes time for the Hokies to get their sea legs; they’re 1-4 ATS at home with rest. Boston College had a cup of coffee in the Top 25 this season but are 2-2 after a 2-0 start. The Eagles packed double revenge in their carry-ons and a 7-2 ATS record as conference dogs with double revenge. Weekdays, BC is 10-7-3 ATS. The Eagles are only giving up 17.7 PPG and have one of the more capable QBs in the ACC in Thomas Castellanos, who delivered some nice stats but not a victory against Virginia two weeks ago. BC hasn’t won in Lane Stadium since 2018, and a sold-out Orange Effect crowd will be hyped from the opening notes of Metallica’s “Enter Sandman”. Say your prayers, little one. Don’t forget, my son, to take the points in an even matchup.
MARSHALL over Georgia State by 5
Georgia State has a win over Vanderbilt, which looks better all the time, but dropped their last two games in Sun Belt play to Georgia Southern and Old Dominion, so the air is running out of the balloon for the Panthers to have a say in the Sun Belt East race (bowl hopes are also beginning to look pale). Marshall is 3-3, but it’s not loaded with high quality; the Herd is 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) against FBS foes, losing that stats battle by -127 yards per game. Marshall will need RB A.J. Turner in his best form, especially since the Herd has a modest passing attack, although an impressive 15:2 TD/INT ratio with a two QB “system” that’s more borne from not being able to nail down a clear number one between Stone Earle and Braylon Braxton. GSU is in the same leaky dinghy trying to figure out who QB1 is, either up-and-coming Christian Velleux or former Pitt Panther Zach Gibson, who has faltered lately. Georgia State brings a fat stat to the hills of Huntington, WV, 10-1 ATS as the underdog when a favorite the previous game, enough of an edge to tilt our wheels towards the visitors.
Egad, MTSU being a double-digit favorite is a major indictment of Kennesaw State. The Blue Man Group is 1-5 In the Stats by an average of 100 yards per game, and they are the big favorite here. Kennesaw State is being outgained by 224 yards per game and is coming off surrendering 577 yards in a loss to Jacksonville State. The Blue was raided for 500 yards by Louisiana Tech, the third time MTSU has given up that many yards. Another reminder: they are a double-digit favorite. They have given up 40 or more points four times, and again, they are a big favorite in this game. MTSU is ranked 125th defensively, Kennesaw #115. Middle does have the conference’s leading passer in junior Nick Vattiano, who is making his 19th straight start on Tuesday. You don’t have to worry about “stopping the run” against MTSU; they do it for you and are ranked last in the conference in rushing offense. The Blue Light Special is Middle’s sterling 16-1 SU and 11-5-1 ATS mark as chalk of seven or more. Kennesaw is looking for its first FBS win after success at the FCS level. What we need is to arrange the “Playbook Bowl” between Kennesaw and Kent State, the two worst in the nation this year. The winner gets a year’s supply of stale bagels.
Louisiana Tech over NEW MEXICO STATE by 10
Another rough one on Tuesday with New Mexico State dragging in a five-game losing streak and being outscored by 118 points, connecting around 40 percent of its passes and hitting 31.5% of third downs. The Bulldogs are the Big Dogs of this awful Tuesday night slate with a record of 2-3 and coming off routing MTSU. Tech will have to win in the air, as their leading rusher through five games has a total of 108 yards. Undoubtedly, the Techsters are the superior crew, but here comes Ruby Tuesday again to point out that the away team on Tuesday, coming off a SUATS win, is 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS since 2017. Tech is also a terrible 1-6 ATS in weekday games, while the Aggies are just terrible. NMSU has been crushed every game by an average of -200 net yards. It’s hard to believe the Aggies won 10 games last year because they’re like a bowler who shot 300 in one game, then 160 in the next. We’re not sure even Walter White’s infamous “Blue Sky” will ease the pain for New Mexico State football this year.
WEDNESDAY, OCT 16
Western Kentucky over SAM HOUSTON STATE by 3
Wednesday’s here to save the early week with a strong matchup between the 4-2 Hilltoppers and 5-1 Sam Houston. Both teams have a legit shot at winning the conference regular season title, sitting at 2-0, tied with Jacksonville State for second behind 3-0 Liberty. The Bearkats opened FBS Year One with an eight-game losing streak but have gone 8-2 since. QB Hunter Watson is a legit dual threat, with nine combined touchdowns, while his Hilltoppers counterpart Caden Veltkamp has 11 TD passes and four on the ground. WKU has recovered nicely from a 63-point loss to Alabama in Week 1 and looks like a bowl team for the 10th time in 11 years. WKU has shown strength on the road, going 15-4-1 ATS as a road dog in the Fun Belt, including a 6-0 ATS run with a winning record that will penetrate the foggiest of brains. Hilltoppers’ Head Coach Tyson Helton also carries a rep for putting cash in people’s pockets, going 10-5 SUATS road record after a previous loss. Much as we are enamored with SHSU and their turnaround, a 1-4 outright record against winning teams is a giant STOP sign even Mr. Magoo could see.
Florida International over UTEP by 8
We’ve gone from the ridiculous to the sublime and now back to the ridiculous. To borrow a tennis term, UTEP has been bageled at 0-6 while scoring 16 PPG. FIU at least has a win but also somehow lost to Monmouth (that’s to Monmouth, not at Monmouth, although the Daily Racing Form wouldn’t have nice things to say about the Panthers), losing the stats in five of six. But it’s on the schedule, so load ‘em in the starting gate, and we’re off. Making matters worse, FIU has been out-yarded in 15 of its last 17 games yet finds itself the road favorite, which sums up 2024 UTEP football in a sentence. The Miners pulled off the upset last year in Miami while being a 3.5-point underdog, and we can’t see back-to-back wins for UTEP, even one year apart.
THURSDAY, OCT 17
VIRGINIA TECH over Boston College by 3
It can’t be a good sign in Blacksburg when the Sports Illustrated Virginia Tech page asks, “Why Do the Hokies Keep Making Coaching Errors?” VPI is 5-1 ATS as a conference favorite of 7 or greater but 1-9 ATS when coming off a road win, such as Week 5’s win over The Tree at Stanford. Coming off rest, it takes time for the Hokies to get their sea legs; they’re 1-4 ATS at home with rest. Boston College had a cup of coffee in the Top 25 this season but are 2-2 after a 2-0 start. The Eagles packed double revenge in their carry-ons and a 7-2 ATS record as conference dogs with double revenge. Weekdays, BC is 10-7-3 ATS. The Eagles are only giving up 17.7 PPG and have one of the more capable QBs in the ACC in Thomas Castellanos, who delivered some nice stats but not a victory against Virginia two weeks ago. BC hasn’t won in Lane Stadium since 2018, and a sold-out Orange Effect crowd will be hyped from the opening notes of Metallica’s “Enter Sandman”. Say your prayers, little one. Don’t forget, my son, to take the points in an even matchup.
MARSHALL over Georgia State by 5
Georgia State has a win over Vanderbilt, which looks better all the time, but dropped their last two games in Sun Belt play to Georgia Southern and Old Dominion, so the air is running out of the balloon for the Panthers to have a say in the Sun Belt East race (bowl hopes are also beginning to look pale). Marshall is 3-3, but it’s not loaded with high quality; the Herd is 1-4 ITS (In The Stats) against FBS foes, losing that stats battle by -127 yards per game. Marshall will need RB A.J. Turner in his best form, especially since the Herd has a modest passing attack, although an impressive 15:2 TD/INT ratio with a two QB “system” that’s more borne from not being able to nail down a clear number one between Stone Earle and Braylon Braxton. GSU is in the same leaky dinghy trying to figure out who QB1 is, either up-and-coming Christian Velleux or former Pitt Panther Zach Gibson, who has faltered lately. Georgia State brings a fat stat to the hills of Huntington, WV, 10-1 ATS as the underdog when a favorite the previous game, enough of an edge to tilt our wheels towards the visitors.
Recap
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Marc Lawrence's Playbook October 15-17 Plays - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-559#post-14519240
(Playbook has a note saying the full newsletter will be delayed until Thursday, 3PM Est)
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Newsletter Tracking
This season so far - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-558#post-14518546
Gold Sheet October 19-20.pdf
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Gridiron Gold Sheet NCAAF Week 8.pdf
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Gridiron Gold Sheet NFL Week 7.PDF
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(Playbook has a note saying the full newsletter will be delayed until Thursday, 3PM Est)
Power Plays October 19.pdf
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Power Sweep October 19.pdf
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Pointwise October 19.pdf
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Sports Reporter Week Ending October 21.pdf
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Totals Tipsheet #7.pdf
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VSiN NBA Betting Guide.pdf
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Winning Points October 21.pdf
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Newsletter Tracking
This season so far - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-558#post-14518546
Brad Powers
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Powers' Ratings October 17-21.pdf
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Recap
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Marc Lawrence's Playbook October 15-17 Plays - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-559#post-14519240
(Playbook has a note saying the full newsletter will be delayed until Thursday, 3PM Est)
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
drive.google.com
Newsletter Tracking
This season so far - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-558#post-14518546
Gold Sheet October 19-20.pdf
drive.google.com
Gridiron Gold Sheet NCAAF Week 8.pdf
drive.google.com
Gridiron Gold Sheet NFL Week 7.PDF
drive.google.com
(Playbook has a note saying the full newsletter will be delayed until Thursday, 3PM Est)
Pointwise October 19.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Plays October 19.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep October 19.pdf
drive.google.com
Powers' Ratings October 17-21.pdf
drive.google.com
Sports Reporter Week Ending October 21.pdf
drive.google.com
Totals Tipsheet #7.pdf
drive.google.com
VSiN NBA Betting Guide.pdf
drive.google.com
Winning Points October 21.pdf
drive.google.com
Newsletter Tracking
This season so far - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-558#post-14518546
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox College Games Tuesday-Thursday
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Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox College Tuesday-Thursday.pdf
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5 posts above and you have the answer and you wouldn't have had to ask. Do not understand why some do not read the posts above before asking. If someone has a newsletter they will post it. There is never a need to ask
Marc Lawrence's Playbook October 15-17 Plays - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-559#post-14519240
(Playbook has a note saying the full newsletter will be delayed until Thursday, 3PM Est)
