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I realize the VSIN Pro Matchups Guide is an old one. They are running behind with the VSIN Pro Matchups Guide. They said it would be available later today. I will post it as soon as it becomes available. Sorry for the confusion.
 

Let's go Brandon!
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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets and nuggets


"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 11 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.

Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.

Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-0. Season: 36-16-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-0. Season: 22-18-1)


The plays​

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Louisville Cardinals at No. 10 Clemson Tigers (-7, 52)

The Bear:
Typically this would be a logical play of Clemson spot off a blowout loss, but I'm not seeing that here. It's impossible to see how either quarterback has any confidence right now and Louisville has strung together four straight wins and surprisingly played very well on the defensive side of the ball much of the year. Clemson's defense may carry them to a win, but I'd be surprised if it were easy.



Pick: Louisville +7

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Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5, 64)

The Bear:
Last week the Jayhawks celebrated as if it won the Super Bowl -- and I couldn't be happier for them. But this feels like a good spot to fade KU as they head to Lubbock, where the Red Raiders have already beaten Texas, drubbed WVU and beaten Houston. Tech itself needs two more wins to get bowl eligible and this is likely the easiest spot to get one of them.

Pick: Texas Tech -3.5

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Fresno State Bulldogs (-9.5, 60.5) at UNLV Runnin' Rebels

Stanford Steve:
We are running out of games in Fresno State QB, Jake Haener's career. I've stated many times, he is my favorite QB in college football. With that being said, I feel the need to back him and his team as the games are dwindling. They got the offense up and running last week, which was Haener's second game back from injury. These two teams seem to be going in opposite directions, seeing how UNLV hasn't scored more than 21 points in a game since September. So, we'll take the road team in Las Vegas Friday night and lay the points.

Pick: Fresno State -9.5 (Fresno State 34 UNLV 20)

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Army Black Knights at Troy Trojans (-9, 46)

Stanford Steve:
I'm gonna give you two names you probably haven't heard this year. The first is, Eric McDaniel, the defensive line coach for the Trojans and before that he coached defense at Army. The other name is Shiel Wood, he is the current defensive coordinator at Troy, before that he was the co-defensive coordinator at West Point for two years. Before that he coached at Georgia Tech under Paul Johnson. Prior to that, Wood coached at Wofford for seven years, and that was after playing there for four years. These guys have been around option football for a very long time. Troy is already a very good team on defense and they will be prepared this week. It will be a low scoring game, so we'll take the under.

Pick: Under 46 (Troy 23 Army 14)

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No. 15 North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-3.5, 77)

The Bear:
Wake Forest has pretty much thrown up all over itself the last two weeks with 11 turnovers in road losses to NC State and Louisville. This is a really good spot to get right offensively against the 117th ranked team in the country in defensive efficiency. UNC will get theirs on offense, that's for sure, but the fact Wake is favored probably caught a lot of causal observers off guard. Vegas typically doesn't make mistakes with situations like this. I still think UNC gets to the ACC title game and has a great chance to win. But Saturday feels like a get-right spot for Wake off two horrific turnover riddled performances.

Pick: Wake Forest -3.5

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Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears (-2.5, 53.5)

Last week, we took Baylor as an underdog and they got home for us, winning the game on the field. This week, we'll continue to ride the Bears as Dave Aranda has this team ascending at the perfect time of year, with a visit from the No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs coming next week. The offense, led by offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes, (who I would bet is a head coach next year) continues to score plenty of points and have averaged 39.5 points per game over the last four contests.

Pick: Baylor -2.5 (Baylor 31 Kansas State 23)


The Bear's money-line parlay​

Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.

$100 returns $173
Last Week: +124
Season: +10

Tennessee Volunteers -1500
Kentucky Wildcats -900
Arkansas State Red Wolves -1050
Michigan Wolverines -10000
NC State Wolfpack -1150
Minnesota Golden Gophers -950
UTSA Roadrunners -1050
Air Force Falcons -2400
South Alabama Jaguars -750
Georgia Bulldogs -850
Utah Utes -2100
UCLA Bruins -1250
Boise State Broncos -1650


The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line​

Last Week: 2-2, +0.4
Season: 11-29, -12.25 units

Louisville Cardinals +230
Rutgers Scarlet Knights +310
Syracuse Orange +215
Purdue Boilermakers +210


Bear bytes​

No. 4 TCU Horned Frogs at No. 18 Texas Longhorns

Since 1979 there have been six instances of a team with at least three losses being favored over a team 9-0 or better in the regular season. However, none of the six favorites were favored by more than a field goal, so this marks the biggest a 3+ loss team has been favored over a 9-0 or better team.

The last time this happened came in 2019, when 6-3 Iowa was favored by a field goal over 9-0 Minnesota and won 23-19 at Kinnick Stadium.

3+ loss team favored over team 9-0 or better in regular season (since 1979)​

YearTeamSpreadOpponentResult
2019Iowa-3MinnesotaWon 23-19
2012Wisconsin-2Ohio StateLost 21-14
2003Southern Miss-2.5TCUWon 40-28
1993Michigan-1Ohio StateWon 28-0
1993Georgia-1.5AuburnLost 42-28
1990Colorado State-3WyomingWon 17-8
This is also just the fifth time in the CFP era that a Top 5 team is an underdog to a team not ranked in the Top 10.

Top 5 team being an underdog to a team not ranked in the Top 10​

YearTeamSpreadOpponentResult
2019Iowa-3MinnesotaWon 23-19
2012Wisconsin-2Ohio StateLost 21-14
2003Southern Miss-2.5TCUWon 40-28
1993Michigan-1Ohio StateWon 28-0
1993Georgia-1.5AuburnLost 42-28
1990Colorado State-3WyomingWon 17-8
Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma State Cowboys

The game I've been waiting for all year! Two coaches on the opposite end of close game success when the spread is between -3.5 and +3.5.

W-L When Spread is Within -3.5 and +3.5​

Since 20162022
Matt Campbell5-161-4
Mike Gundy14-51-2
Stanford Cardinal at No. 13 Utah Utes

Entering this week's games, Stanford has the same record as Colorado (14-25) since the start of 2019. The only teams with a worse win percentage in that span -- Nebraska, Northwestern, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Kansas, Arizona and Vanderbilt.

Louisville Cardinals at No. 10 Clemson Tigers

This is the fourth time in the last five ACC home games that Clemson is a single-digit favorite. Prior to this stretch, the Tigers were a double-digit ACC home favorite in 22 straight games.

No. 7 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks

LSU hasn't covered a game the week after Alabama since 2017 (0-3-1 ATS).

No. 25 Washington Huskies at No. 6 Oregon Ducks

Oregon has covered each of the last 13 games vs. Washington in which the Ducks were favored, a streak which dates back to 2004.

Liberty Flames at Connecticut Huskies

UConn is 8-2 ATS this season, having covered six straight, including outright underdog wins vs. Fresno State and Boston College.
 

Let's go Brandon!
Joined
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Messages
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Recap
Gridiron Gold Sheet
College:
East Carolina +10
USC -31 1/2
Fresno State -7
Ohio State -37 1/2
Tennessee -18 1/2
Michigan -26 1/2
Oregon -11 1/2
TCU +7
UCLA -17 1/2
Boise State -16 1/2
NFL:
Bucs -2 1/2
Bears -3
Chiefs -9 1/2
Titans -1 1/2
Raiders -4 1/2
Cowboys -2 1/2
49ers -3 1/2
Commanders +10 1/2


Records
Newsletter Tracking Through November 6 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-505#post-13989200

More
Podcasts - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-507#post-13992564
Stanford Steve and the Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets and nuggets - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-507#post-13993119
 

Member
Joined
Nov 8, 2009
Messages
15
Tokens
Recap
Gridiron Gold Sheet
College:
East Carolina +10
USC -31 1/2
Fresno State -7
Ohio State -37 1/2
Tennessee -18 1/2
Michigan -26 1/2
Oregon -11 1/2
TCU +7
UCLA -17 1/2
Boise State -16 1/2
NFL:
Bucs -2 1/2
Bears -3
Chiefs -9 1/2
Titans -1 1/2
Raiders -4 1/2
Cowboys -2 1/2
49ers -3 1/2
Commanders +10 1/2


Records
Newsletter Tracking Through November 6 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-505#post-13989200

More
Podcasts - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-507#post-13992564
Stanford Steve and the Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets and nuggets - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-507#post-13993119
Is Confidential Kickoff (CKO) still around?
 

Member
Joined
Nov 7, 2020
Messages
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Anyone have Red Sheet by chance?

Thanks in advance.
Georgia 49 - MISSISSIPPI STATE 20 - (7:00 EST) -- Line opened at Georgia minus 181⁄2, and is now minus 161⁄2. As our readers are aware, we are always appreciative of any line movement in our direction, with this being such a case. The top-ranked 'Dawgs simply dominate, with a defense that seems no only smothering, but impenetrable. Last week was a prime example of why they demand such respect, as they held the #1 offense in the land (Tennessee), which entered at 49 ppg, to just a pair of FGs save a TD in the final moments. Mike Leach teams live via the pass, which plays into hands of 'Dawgs unrelenting "D".
RATING: GEORGIA 89
UTAH 49 - Stanford 14 - (10:00) -- Line opened at Utah minus 241⁄2, and is now minus 231⁄2. Well, the Card had their days with that nearly unexplainable upset of Notre Dame, followed by nearly identical home win over an Arizona St team, which was in off a draining 45-38 win over Washington. But it has been all downhill since, with 38-13 & 52-14 losses to Ucla & Washington St. For the 13-ranked Utes, it has been a matter of turning the corner, with their only slips being their 3-pt loss at Florida, to open the season, & their tight loss to a smoking Ucla, before last week's rout of Arizona. For the season, the Utes have a +106 ATS pt edge. Card "D" is there for the taking, & Utes take full advantage.
RATING: UTAH 89
Tcu 45 - TEXAS 42 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Texas minus 7, and is still minus 7. Seems like one killer after another for the Longhorns, but such is life in the Big12. As we noted on Pointwise, many an epic shootout has emerged from this series, with 32-27 & 33-31 final in just the last 2 matches. The Frogs have climbed into the National Championship Playoff picture, with not only their perfect SU record, but with their 6- 1-1 ATS mark. QB Duggan sits a #4 in passing efficiency (24/2) while a stabilizing factor extraordinaire.
RATING: TCU 88
North Texas 35 - UAB 20 - (3:30) -- Line opened at UAB minus 41⁄2. and is now minus 51⁄2. Obviously, this is mainly a case of a smoking hot entity vs a down trending outfit. For the Meanies of North Texas, try six straight covers: by 91⁄2, 20, 131⁄2, 6, 361⁄2, & 141⁄2 pts, not a sqeaker in the bunch. Not only that, but, although the Green are hardly defensive stalwarts, their offense comes in at #6 in total, & 14th in rushing. Not too bad, especially when QB Aune is 12th in the land in passing efficiency (28/11). Meanies the play.
RATING: NORTH TEXAS 88
DUKE 45 - Virginia Tech 20 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Duke minus 101⁄2, and is now minus 91⁄2. As we noted on Pointwise the Blue Devils are just a few plays from a perfect log, while posting 30+ pts in all but 2 games. This game comes complete with the revenge factor, as the Hokies posted a 573-343 yd edge in last year's 48-17 romper. However, a complete turnabout has transpired, as VaTech can't run (#118), nor score (#112), while on a 6-game losing streak. Home team in 'Devil games now 16-3-1.
RATING: DUKE 88
Denver 19 - TENNESSEE 18 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Tennessee minus 11⁄2, and is now minus 3. A 11⁄2 pt line change can be a huge factor in the NFL, which is rife with nailbiting affairs. The punchless Broncos snapped their 4-game losing streak the week before their bye, with a21-17 win over Jacksonville in jolly old England. While their offense has easily been stifled, ranking 23rd in the NFL, the one dimensional "O" (RB Henry) of the Titans ranks even lower, at 32nd & last, with the loss of QB Tannehill obviously too much to ovecome. Defensively, the Broncos are bested only by the Niners. A comfortble dog.
RATING: DENVER BRONCOS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Oregon State, Houston, Wyoming, Iowa - NFL: Chicago, Seattle, Washington
 

Let's go Brandon!
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
25,287
Tokens
Recap
Gridiron Gold Sheet
College:
East Carolina +10
USC -31 1/2
Fresno State -7
Ohio State -37 1/2
Tennessee -18 1/2
Michigan -26 1/2
Oregon -11 1/2
TCU +7
UCLA -17 1/2
Boise State -16 1/2
NFL:
Bucs -2 1/2
Bears -3
Chiefs -9 1/2
Titans -1 1/2
Raiders -4 1/2
Cowboys -2 1/2
49ers -3 1/2
Commanders +10 1/2

Red Sheet - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-507#post-13994623

Records
Newsletter Tracking Through November 6 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-505#post-13989200

More
Podcasts - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-507#post-13992564
Stanford Steve and the Bear: Week 11 college football picks, bets and nuggets - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-507#post-13993119
 

Let's go Brandon!
Joined
Nov 6, 2012
Messages
25,287
Tokens

Week 10 selections for Circa Friday Football Invitational

STANDINGS

BOBBY “BUCKETS” BRUBECK
Louisville +6.5
UL Monroe-Georgia State Over 59
Texas State-South Alabama Under 46.5
North Texas +6
(BB) Browns +3.5
Record (points): 26-19 (26)
Best Bets: 4-5 (4)

CHUCK EDEL
Indiana-Ohio State Over 61
South Carolina-Florida Over 59.5
Vanderbilt-Kentucky Under 47
Arizona-UCLA Over 76
(BB) Louisiana Tech-UTSA Over 68
Record (points): 29-16 (29)
Best Bets: 4-5 (4)

BRIAN EDWARDS
Mississippi +12
Seahawks +2.5
Bears -3
Titans -3
(BB) Texas A&M-Auburn Over 48
Record (points): 21-24 (21)
Best Bets: 5-4 (5)

CHRIS “THE BEAR” FALLICA
Louisville +6.5
Arizona State +9
Arizona +20
Buccaneers -2.5
(BB) Texas Tech -4
Record (points): 26-19 (26)
Best Bets: 6-3 (6)

STEVE FEZZIK
Vanderbilt-Kentucky Under 47.5
Louisiana Tech-UTSA Over 68
Jaguars-Chiefs Over 50.5
Texans-Giants Over 40.5
(BB) Southern Mississippi +5
Record (points): 19-25-1 (19.5)
Best Bets: 5-3-1 (5.5)

JOEY “TUNES” FORTUNA
Central Florida-Tulane Over 54
Washington State -8
Giants -4.5
Raiders -4.5
(BB) Army-Troy Over 46
Record (points): 22-23 (22)
Best Bets: 4-5 (4)

DOUG KEZIRIAN
Navy +16
Utah -24
Auburn -1.5
Steelers +1.5
(BB) Boston College-NC State Over 41
Record (points): 28-17 (28)
Best Bets: 6-3 (6)

MARC LAWRENCE
Louisville +6.5
Washington +13
Browns +3.5
Packers +4
(BB) Cardinals +3
Record (points): 22-21-2 (23)
Best Bets: 5-4 (5)

RANDY MCKAY
Central Florida-Tulane Over 54
Mississippi +12
New Mexico +21.5
Chargers +7
(BB) Seahawks-Buccaneers Under 44.5
Record (points): 22-21-2 (23)
Best Bets: 6-3 (6)

X-MIKE NORTH (first eliminated)
Record (points): 16-26-3 (17.5)
Best Bets: 3-6 (3)

ERIN RYNNING
Nebraska-Michigan Under 49.5
Arizona State-Washington State Over 59.5
Mississippi +12
Broncos +3
(BB) Cowboys-Packers Over 44
Record (points): 19-25-1 (19.5)
Best Bets: 2-6-1 (2.5)

DAN SALEY
North Carolina State -18
Tulane -1
Baylor -3
Hawaii +11.5
(BB) North Texas +6
Record (points): 21-22-2 (22)
Best Bets: 4-5 (4)

JAMES SALINAS
Connecticut +13.5
Army-Troy Under 46
Broncos +3
Colts-Raiders Under 41.5
(BB) Steelers +1.5
Record (points): 27-15-3 (28.5)
Best Bets: 4-5 (4)

PAUL STONE
West Virginia +8.5
South Carolina +8.5
Texas Christian +7.5
Army-Troy Under 46
(BB) Florida State-Syracuse Under 50.5
Record (points): 23-21-1 (23.5)
Best Bets: 3-6 (3)

JEFF WHITELAW
Tulane -1
Arizona State-Washington State Under 59.5
Steelers +1.5
Commanders +11
(BB) Browns +3.5
Record (points): 24-19-2 (25)
Best Bets: 6-2-1 (6.5)

CRIS ZENIUK
Hawaii +11.5
Browns +3.5
Bills -3
49ers -7
(BB) Cowboys -4
Record (points): 21-23-1 (21.5)
Best Bets: 3-6 (3)

MIKE PALM
Illinois -6.5
Iowa State -1.5
Wisconsin pick
Seahawks +2.5
(BB) Colts-Raiders Under 41.5
Record (points): 26-17-2 (27)
Best Bets: 6-3 (6)

MATT YOUMANS
Arizona +20
Auburn -1.5
Hawaii +11.5
Buccaneers -2.5
(BB) Steelers +1.5
Record (points): 23-21-1 (23.5)
Best Bets: 6-3 (6)

Source: https://www.vsin.com/week-10-nfl-an...tions-for-circa-friday-football-invitational/
 

Let's go Brandon!
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Messages
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Newsletter Tracking updated through November 13, 2022 from Mendoza Line

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

CKO (We haven't seen this one yet this season)
11* (0-0-0)
10* (0-0-0)
o/u (0-0-0)

Gridiron Gold Sheet (We've gotten this one only 6 weeks this season)
NCAA Best Bets (16-17-1)
NFL Best Bets (16-11-0) (Washington +10.5 pending for MNF)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
5* (7-3-1)
4* (6-5-0)
3* (6-5-0)
Upset pick (4-7-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (7-4-0)
Awesome Angle (7-6-0)
Incredible Stat (6-3-1)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL
5* (5-4-1)
4* (4-5-1)
3* (5-4-1)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (9-13-0)
2* (4-6-1)
3* (5-5-1)
4* (8-14-0)
5* (12-10-0)

Pointwise NFL
3* (2-7-1)
4* (9-10-1)
5* (13-6-0) (Washington +10.5 pending for MNF)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (2-8-0)
3* (8-12-0)
2* (13-7-0)
Underdog Play of the Week (7-3-0)
Tech Play of the Week (5-1-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (2-7-0)
Situational Play of the Week (3-4-0)
Series Play of the Week (4-4-0)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (4-6-0)
3* (5-5-0)
2* (4-5-1)
4* Pro Angle (0-6-0)
3* o/u play (6-4-0)

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (10-4-1)
2* (19-17-0)
1* (1-0-0)

Powers' Picks NFL
4* (0-0-0)
3* (1-3-0)
2* (14-6-1) (Washington +11 pending for MNF)
1* (3-6-0)

Sports Reporter (6-0 overall this week)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (21-16-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (9-9-0)

Red Sheet
90* (0-1-0)
89* (11-9-0)
88* (22-17-0)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (7-4-0)
NCAA 3* (8-3-0)
NFL 4* (4-6-0)
NFL 3* (3-6-1)

Killer Sports, not including teasers (We haven't seen this one yet this season)
SBB 4.5* (0-0-0)
SBB 4* (0-0-0)
Cajun NCAA (0-0-0)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0-0)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (6-13-0)
2* (6-5-0)
Team Total of the Week (4-6-0)

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (9-20-1)
NCAA 4* (22-29-0)
NFL 4* (3-6-1)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (28-18-0)
NFL Key Releases (19-18-0)

ITPB
NCAA (27-33-1)
NFL (9-9-0) (I believe this has literally gone 1-1 every week we've had it)

Kenny White
NCAA (0-0-0)
NFL (0-0-0)
 

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