Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 10 college football picks, bets and nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 10 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 4-2. Season: 33-16-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 1-2. Season: 19-18-1)
The plays
No. 24 Texas Longhorns (-2.5, 54.5) at No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats
The Bear: In addition to Adrian Martinez, K-State also has worry at the LB position with Daniel Green. Not having him would be a concern against Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns running game. Texas could easily be undefeated right now (where have we heard that before), but the week off since the collapse at Oklahoma State likely did them a lot of good. And if people use the "K-State just blew out Oklahoma State and Texas just lost to them" logic and we get a better number as a result, even better.
Pick: Texas -2.5
No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2, 64.5) at Kansas Jayhawks
The Bear: I'm not sure why Oklahoma State is favored here as the Cowboys have a bunch of key injuries, among them QB Spencer Sanders. On the other sideline, KU may get QB Jalon Daniels back and even if he doesn't play, Jason Bean has been more than an adequate replacement. KU needs one more win to get bowl eligible and this seems like the Jayhawks' best chance to get it.
Pick: Kansas +2
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers (-3.5, 48)
The Bear: The Panthers were a no-show in the second half last week at North Carolina but this should be a softer spot as the Syracuse offense is nowhere near as potent as the Tar Heels and the Orange aren't 100% on the defensive side of the ball. The Orange had a shot to beat Clemson but it sure feels like they are going to stagger home after a promising start to the season.
Pick: Pitt -3.5
Florida State Seminoles (-7.5, 53) at Miami Hurricanes
Stanford Steve: I know you're not supposed to give ample points in rivalry games but I have to in this one. Miami has looked abysmal most of the season and that includes a game last week where they won at Virginia in 4 OTs and didn't score a touchdown. Florida State has had some chances to pull off some big conference wins this year against Clemson and Wake Forest but didn't play well in those games. The Seminoles offense, led by QB Jordan Travis, will be too much for the 'Canes. We'll take the road team and lay the points.
Pick: Florida State -7.5 (Florida State 29, Miami 17)
Baylor Bears at Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 61.5)
Stanford Steve: You're gonna have to have the live stream flowing to watch this one. But, following these picks maybe you don't even want to watch the game with the year we have had battling every week. Even though these teams have combined for 6 losses already this year, I do think they are gonna end the year on the uptick. When looking at this matchup, I cant help but notice the Bears defense gives up 100 less yards per game than the Sooners do. That combined with the Bears averaging 40 points in their last 3 games make me want to take them in this spot. We'll take the road team plus the points.
Pick: Baylor +3.5 (Baylor 34, Oklahoma 33)
UTSA Roadrunners at UAB Blazers (Pick'em, 52)
Stanford Steve: UTSA has won five games in a row. More importantly, the Roadrunners have only covered one of those games. Now, they head to Birmingham to face the Blazers and their outstanding RB DeWayne McBride, who leads the country averaging over 163 rushing yards per game. That average is the 4th highest in the last five years of college football. UTSA is fresh off a game where they limited North Texas to 22 rush yards on 21 carries, however, and that run defense will travel to Protective Stadium. I've talked plenty on The Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast the last couple years of how much I admire the job Jeff Traylor has in San Antonio with the Roadrunners and I think this winning streak continues and they obviously cover the number. We'll take the Roadrunners.
Pick: UTSA pick 'em (UTSA 31, UAB 28)
The Bear's money-line parlay
Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.$100 returns $124
Last Week: +114
Season: -114
San Jose State Spartans -2800
USC Trojans -1500
Fresno State Bulldogs -2800
Michigan Wolverines -4500
Utah Utes -800
Cincinnati Bearcats -1400
Pittsburgh Panthers -170
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 2-3, -0.15 unitsSeason: 9-27, -12.65 units
Kansas Jayhawks +105
Indiana Hoosiers +425
Vanderbilt Commodores +220
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +135
Bear bytes
AP No. 2 Tennessee is an 8-point dog at No. 1 Georgia. Only twice has a team ranked in the Top 2 been an underdog of more than seven points in the regular season. The last instance was in 2014 when No. 1 Mississippi State was a 9.5-point dog at No. 4 Alabama and lost 25-20. The other came in 2000 when No. 2 Virginia Tech lost 41-21 at No. 3 Miami as a 9.5-point dog.
Michigan State at No. 14 Illinois (-17, 41.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois
Since the start of the 2012 season -- 90 Big Ten games -- only one other time has Illinois been a double-digit favorite in Big Ten play - 2019 vs Rutgers when the Fighting Illini beat SUNJ 38-10 as an 18.5 point favorite. In that span, the Illini have been a double-digit dog 47 times in Big Ten play.
Last year Michigan State was an underdog five times and won four outright. This year the Spartans have been a dog six times, winning just once outright and covering only
Iowa at Purdue (-4.5, 41)
noon p.m. ET, Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, Indiana
Beginning with the 2021 Big Ten Championship Game, Iowa has been an underdog five times and hasn't won any of the games, scoring 10, 6, 14, 17 and 3 points in those games.
Florida State (-7.5, 53.0) vs. Miami
7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Underdogs have covered 16 of the last 21 meetings with 11 outright wins
No. 6 Alabama (-13.5, 56.5) at No. 15 LSU
7 p.m. ET on ESPN, Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
In the last five meetings at LSU, Alabama has allowed a total of 47 points with two shutouts (17, 0, 0, 13, 17).
While at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly was a double-digit underdog eight times. The Irish won one of those games - 2012 at Oklahoma 30-13 as a 12-point dog.
Texas (-2.5, 54.5) at No. 13 Kansas State
7 p.m. ET, Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, Kansas
Texas has won five straight vs Kansas State, with four of the wins coming by six points or fewer.
South Carolina (-7, 48.5) at Vanderbilt
7:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network, FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
This snaps a streak of 22 straight SEC games in which Vanderbilt was a double-digit underdog. In fact Vandy was at least a 14-point dog in all 22 of those games. The last time Vandy was a single-digit dog in an SEC game was November 16, 2019 when they lost 38-14 to Kentucky as a 9-point dog.
Florida at Texas A&M (-3.5, 55.5)
noon p.m. ET on ESPN, Kyle Field, College Station, Texas
Texas A&M is trying to avoid its first five-game losing streak since 1980.
Air Force (-7, 40.5) vs. Army
11:30 a.m. ET, Choctaw Stadium, Arlington, Texas
23 of the last 26 meetings between service academies have gone under (2 overs, 1 push). In addition, underdogs have covered 15 of the last 18 meetings with ten outright wins.
