I made an observation many years ago that POINTWISE has a BAD HABIT of predicting too many high scores in college games. This week's examples:
Duke/UNC 52-45 (97 points). Total is set at 66.5.
Mich/Penn State 37-34 (71 points). Total is set at 52.
Ohio/Western Mich 45-41 (86 points). Total is set at 59.5.
Clemson/FSU 45-30 (75 points). Total is set at 51.
Duke/UNC 52-45 (97 points). Total is set at 66.5.
Mich/Penn State 37-34 (71 points). Total is set at 52.
Ohio/Western Mich 45-41 (86 points). Total is set at 59.5.
Clemson/FSU 45-30 (75 points). Total is set at 51.
VSIN PRO MATCHUPS GUIDE
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Clemson 41 - FLORIDA STATE 27 - (7:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 4½, and is now minus 3½. As we stated on Pointwise, the 4th-ranked Tigers haven't posted those eye-popping winning margins as was a weekly happening in the Watson & Lawrence glory years, but just keep getting it done, with QB Uiagalelei improving by the week, standing at a sweet 14/2 TD/INT ratio. And check the nation's 2ndranked rushing "D", allowing back-to-back 34 yds the last 2 wks. Lowest spread in rivalry since 2011. RATING: CLEMSON 89
James Madison 41 - GEORGIA SOUTHERN 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at James Madison minus 11, and is now minus 10½. Quite a splash the Dukes have made in their initial FBS season, along with weekly appearances on the Vegas Rotation. Not only a perfect 5-0 SU record, but the accompanying 4-0 log in the allimportant ATS race, ranking 2nd & 1st in total & rushing "D", while GaSo comes in at 116th & 123rd in those columns. Offensively, JM is also among the best: 16th & 18th in total & rushing. Dukes again. RATING: JAMES MADISON 89
Navy 34 - SMU 24 - (7:30 Friday) -- Line opened at SMU minus 20½, and is now minus 12½. Seems it wouldn't be a Red Sheet Release without a huge spread move, more than not in the wrong direction, with this one just the latest. We know that the phrase "the wrong team is favored" gets plenty of usage. So add this one to that category. As noted on Pointwise, the Middies are on a 3-game spread run, with last week's 52-21 rout of Tulsa (36½ pt cover) the capper. Ponies have a 117-80 pt deficit over the last 3 weeks. RATING: NAVY 88
WASHINGTON 52 - Arizona 27 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Washington minus 17, and is now minus 15½. No, we can't believe it either. Sure, the Huskies have dropped a couple of TD losses, at 6-0 Ucla,& 3-4 ArizonaSt, but those slips should hardly propel the public to move against them, which it surely has. But that would be a mistake, as UW has the firepower: 10th in total "O", 2nd in passing "O" (QB Penix 2nd ranked passer in the land: 16/4 with 2,044 yds), & 12th in scoring "O". 'Cats can move it behind 10thranked passing game, but their 110th ranked defense, won't be keep the Huskies in sight in this one. RATING: WASHINGTON 88
Lsu 37 - FLORIDA 27 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Florida minus 3, and is now minus 2½. Time for new HC Kelly to earn his pay, with such a situation as this, the prime reason for his hiring, in the first place. Bengals didn't know what hit them in 40-13 loss to Tennessee, which was aided immensely by a brace of special team mistakes, staking the Vols to a quick 20-0 lead, so that was that. The Gators came from posting 31 FDs & 594 yds (Tennessee), to just 13 FDs & 293 yds (Missouri), & now must assume the role of chalk vs the Tigers. Thus note that the dog is a remarkable 9-0 ATS in Florida's last nine contests. RATING: LSU 88
Dallas 26 - PHILADELPHIA 19 - (8:20 Sunday) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 1, and is now minus 5. Sure, the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL, & deservedly so, with a 47-pt edge, which is topped only by the explosive Bills' 91-pt advantage. But even with their success, they must prove their worth against the oncoming Cowboys, who've won 4 straight, covering all 4, allowing no team to reach the 20-pt mark, allowing just 38 RYs in last week's 22-10 win (17-pt cover) over defending champion Rams. Sunday Nights normally are decided by a TD or less. In that case, we'll grab the 5 pts in this. RATING: DALLAS COWBOYS 88 NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Illinois, San Jose St, Buffalo, Eastern Mich -- NFL: San Fran, Buffalo, Denver
James Madison 41 - GEORGIA SOUTHERN 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at James Madison minus 11, and is now minus 10½. Quite a splash the Dukes have made in their initial FBS season, along with weekly appearances on the Vegas Rotation. Not only a perfect 5-0 SU record, but the accompanying 4-0 log in the allimportant ATS race, ranking 2nd & 1st in total & rushing "D", while GaSo comes in at 116th & 123rd in those columns. Offensively, JM is also among the best: 16th & 18th in total & rushing. Dukes again. RATING: JAMES MADISON 89
Navy 34 - SMU 24 - (7:30 Friday) -- Line opened at SMU minus 20½, and is now minus 12½. Seems it wouldn't be a Red Sheet Release without a huge spread move, more than not in the wrong direction, with this one just the latest. We know that the phrase "the wrong team is favored" gets plenty of usage. So add this one to that category. As noted on Pointwise, the Middies are on a 3-game spread run, with last week's 52-21 rout of Tulsa (36½ pt cover) the capper. Ponies have a 117-80 pt deficit over the last 3 weeks. RATING: NAVY 88
WASHINGTON 52 - Arizona 27 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Washington minus 17, and is now minus 15½. No, we can't believe it either. Sure, the Huskies have dropped a couple of TD losses, at 6-0 Ucla,& 3-4 ArizonaSt, but those slips should hardly propel the public to move against them, which it surely has. But that would be a mistake, as UW has the firepower: 10th in total "O", 2nd in passing "O" (QB Penix 2nd ranked passer in the land: 16/4 with 2,044 yds), & 12th in scoring "O". 'Cats can move it behind 10thranked passing game, but their 110th ranked defense, won't be keep the Huskies in sight in this one. RATING: WASHINGTON 88
Lsu 37 - FLORIDA 27 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Florida minus 3, and is now minus 2½. Time for new HC Kelly to earn his pay, with such a situation as this, the prime reason for his hiring, in the first place. Bengals didn't know what hit them in 40-13 loss to Tennessee, which was aided immensely by a brace of special team mistakes, staking the Vols to a quick 20-0 lead, so that was that. The Gators came from posting 31 FDs & 594 yds (Tennessee), to just 13 FDs & 293 yds (Missouri), & now must assume the role of chalk vs the Tigers. Thus note that the dog is a remarkable 9-0 ATS in Florida's last nine contests. RATING: LSU 88
Dallas 26 - PHILADELPHIA 19 - (8:20 Sunday) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 1, and is now minus 5. Sure, the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL, & deservedly so, with a 47-pt edge, which is topped only by the explosive Bills' 91-pt advantage. But even with their success, they must prove their worth against the oncoming Cowboys, who've won 4 straight, covering all 4, allowing no team to reach the 20-pt mark, allowing just 38 RYs in last week's 22-10 win (17-pt cover) over defending champion Rams. Sunday Nights normally are decided by a TD or less. In that case, we'll grab the 5 pts in this. RATING: DALLAS COWBOYS 88 NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Illinois, San Jose St, Buffalo, Eastern Mich -- NFL: San Fran, Buffalo, Denver
Three choices using these score predictions
1) As someone suggested, "play them over" although you've probably already done this and it isn't winning
2) Abandon this source because there is an obvious flaw in their process of predicting actual scores
OR,
what I would do..
3) Check all of their other predicted scores. You will probably find an overall bias to the over when you compare them to the actual totals numbers.
Use the lines on Monday before they get banged for better accuracy. Then, make the mathematical adjustment on the predicted scores.
This will tell you if these predictions have any merit using them to play totals going forward.
1) As someone suggested, "play them over" although you've probably already done this and it isn't winning
2) Abandon this source because there is an obvious flaw in their process of predicting actual scores
OR,
what I would do..
3) Check all of their other predicted scores. You will probably find an overall bias to the over when you compare them to the actual totals numbers.
Use the lines on Monday before they get banged for better accuracy. Then, make the mathematical adjustment on the predicted scores.
This will tell you if these predictions have any merit using them to play totals going forward.
I agree with the first opinion they use computer based predictions for spread purposes don't think they dabble in the total aspect of betting whatsoever but he not alone in that thought process I abandoned that a few years back until I realized pointwise don't even follow they own power ratings systems within they own newsletter compared to their mathematical ratings so it's all taken with a grain of salt whatever edge you can find
It's really not a complicated method to how they spot totals it's all addition and division with a little bit of recent gut bias...Add up both teams for/against (off/def) and divide by 2 do for both home and away try and find where they over adjusted or under adjusted and roll the dice I've learned to eyeball their mistakes through trial and error...
American Turf Club 1429
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American Turf Club 1425-1429
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American Turf Club 1425-1429
