Recap
drive.google.com
Gridiron Gold Sheet Newsletter Best Bets
College:
Maryland -10 1/2
Texas -16
Syracuse -3
Miss State -7
Washington -15
NFL:
Bears -Pk
Vikings -1
Jets +9 1/2
Buffalo Over 53
drive.google.com
Power Sweep Rated Plays
NCAA
4 James Madison by 20
3 Wisconsin by 17
3 Mid Tennessee by 3
2 New Mexico by 14
2 Penn St (Mich by 3)
Underdog Iowa St +14.5
NFL
4 San Fran by 14
3 Indy by 10
2 Kansas City by 7
Red Sheet
Clemson 41 - FLORIDA STATE 27 - (7:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 4½, and is now minus 3½. As we stated on Pointwise, the 4th-ranked Tigers haven't posted those eye-popping winning margins as was a weekly happening in the Watson & Lawrence glory years, but just keep getting it done, with QB Uiagalelei improving by the week, standing at a sweet 14/2 TD/INT ratio. And check the nation's 2ndranked rushing "D", allowing back-to-back 34 yds the last 2 wks. Lowest spread in rivalry since 2011. RATING: CLEMSON 89
James Madison 41 - GEORGIA SOUTHERN 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at James Madison minus 11, and is now minus 10½. Quite a splash the Dukes have made in their initial FBS season, along with weekly appearances on the Vegas Rotation. Not only a perfect 5-0 SU record, but the accompanying 4-0 log in the allimportant ATS race, ranking 2nd & 1st in total & rushing "D", while GaSo comes in at 116th & 123rd in those columns. Offensively, JM is also among the best: 16th & 18th in total & rushing. Dukes again. RATING: JAMES MADISON 89
Navy 34 - SMU 24 - (7:30 Friday) -- Line opened at SMU minus 20½, and is now minus 12½. Seems it wouldn't be a Red Sheet Release without a huge spread move, more than not in the wrong direction, with this one just the latest. We know that the phrase "the wrong team is favored" gets plenty of usage. So add this one to that category. As noted on Pointwise, the Middies are on a 3-game spread run, with last week's 52-21 rout of Tulsa (36½ pt cover) the capper. Ponies have a 117-80 pt deficit over the last 3 weeks. RATING: NAVY 88
WASHINGTON 52 - Arizona 27 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Washington minus 17, and is now minus 15½. No, we can't believe it either. Sure, the Huskies have dropped a couple of TD losses, at 6-0 Ucla,& 3-4 ArizonaSt, but those slips should hardly propel the public to move against them, which it surely has. But that would be a mistake, as UW has the firepower: 10th in total "O", 2nd in passing "O" (QB Penix 2nd ranked passer in the land: 16/4 with 2,044 yds), & 12th in scoring "O". 'Cats can move it behind 10thranked passing game, but their 110th ranked defense, won't be keep the Huskies in sight in this one. RATING: WASHINGTON 88
Lsu 37 - FLORIDA 27 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Florida minus 3, and is now minus 2½. Time for new HC Kelly to earn his pay, with such a situation as this, the prime reason for his hiring, in the first place. Bengals didn't know what hit them in 40-13 loss to Tennessee, which was aided immensely by a brace of special team mistakes, staking the Vols to a quick 20-0 lead, so that was that. The Gators came from posting 31 FDs & 594 yds (Tennessee), to just 13 FDs & 293 yds (Missouri), & now must assume the role of chalk vs the Tigers. Thus note that the dog is a remarkable 9-0 ATS in Florida's last nine contests. RATING: LSU 88
Dallas 26 - PHILADELPHIA 19 - (8:20 Sunday) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 1, and is now minus 5. Sure, the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL, & deservedly so, with a 47-pt edge, which is topped only by the explosive Bills' 91-pt advantage. But even with their success, they must prove their worth against the oncoming Cowboys, who've won 4 straight, covering all 4, allowing no team to reach the 20-pt mark, allowing just 38 RYs in last week's 22-10 win (17-pt cover) over defending champion Rams. Sunday Nights normally are decided by a TD or less. In that case, we'll grab the 5 pts in this. RATING: DALLAS COWBOYS 88 NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Illinois, San Jose St, Buffalo, Eastern Mich -- NFL: San Fran, Buffalo, Denver
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drive.google.com
drive.google.com
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Records
Newsletter Tracking Through October 10 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-495#post-13960320
GoldSheet Wk 7.pdf
drive.google.com
College:
Maryland -10 1/2
Texas -16
Syracuse -3
Miss State -7
Washington -15
NFL:
Bears -Pk
Vikings -1
Jets +9 1/2
Buffalo Over 53
Pointwise October 15.pdf
drive.google.com
NCAA
4 James Madison by 20
3 Wisconsin by 17
3 Mid Tennessee by 3
2 New Mexico by 14
2 Penn St (Mich by 3)
Underdog Iowa St +14.5
NFL
4 San Fran by 14
3 Indy by 10
2 Kansas City by 7
Red Sheet
Clemson 41 - FLORIDA STATE 27 - (7:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 4½, and is now minus 3½. As we stated on Pointwise, the 4th-ranked Tigers haven't posted those eye-popping winning margins as was a weekly happening in the Watson & Lawrence glory years, but just keep getting it done, with QB Uiagalelei improving by the week, standing at a sweet 14/2 TD/INT ratio. And check the nation's 2ndranked rushing "D", allowing back-to-back 34 yds the last 2 wks. Lowest spread in rivalry since 2011. RATING: CLEMSON 89
James Madison 41 - GEORGIA SOUTHERN 17 - (12:00) -- Line opened at James Madison minus 11, and is now minus 10½. Quite a splash the Dukes have made in their initial FBS season, along with weekly appearances on the Vegas Rotation. Not only a perfect 5-0 SU record, but the accompanying 4-0 log in the allimportant ATS race, ranking 2nd & 1st in total & rushing "D", while GaSo comes in at 116th & 123rd in those columns. Offensively, JM is also among the best: 16th & 18th in total & rushing. Dukes again. RATING: JAMES MADISON 89
Navy 34 - SMU 24 - (7:30 Friday) -- Line opened at SMU minus 20½, and is now minus 12½. Seems it wouldn't be a Red Sheet Release without a huge spread move, more than not in the wrong direction, with this one just the latest. We know that the phrase "the wrong team is favored" gets plenty of usage. So add this one to that category. As noted on Pointwise, the Middies are on a 3-game spread run, with last week's 52-21 rout of Tulsa (36½ pt cover) the capper. Ponies have a 117-80 pt deficit over the last 3 weeks. RATING: NAVY 88
WASHINGTON 52 - Arizona 27 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Washington minus 17, and is now minus 15½. No, we can't believe it either. Sure, the Huskies have dropped a couple of TD losses, at 6-0 Ucla,& 3-4 ArizonaSt, but those slips should hardly propel the public to move against them, which it surely has. But that would be a mistake, as UW has the firepower: 10th in total "O", 2nd in passing "O" (QB Penix 2nd ranked passer in the land: 16/4 with 2,044 yds), & 12th in scoring "O". 'Cats can move it behind 10thranked passing game, but their 110th ranked defense, won't be keep the Huskies in sight in this one. RATING: WASHINGTON 88
Lsu 37 - FLORIDA 27 - (7:00) -- Line opened at Florida minus 3, and is now minus 2½. Time for new HC Kelly to earn his pay, with such a situation as this, the prime reason for his hiring, in the first place. Bengals didn't know what hit them in 40-13 loss to Tennessee, which was aided immensely by a brace of special team mistakes, staking the Vols to a quick 20-0 lead, so that was that. The Gators came from posting 31 FDs & 594 yds (Tennessee), to just 13 FDs & 293 yds (Missouri), & now must assume the role of chalk vs the Tigers. Thus note that the dog is a remarkable 9-0 ATS in Florida's last nine contests. RATING: LSU 88
Dallas 26 - PHILADELPHIA 19 - (8:20 Sunday) -- Line opened at Philadelphia minus 1, and is now minus 5. Sure, the Eagles are the only undefeated team in the NFL, & deservedly so, with a 47-pt edge, which is topped only by the explosive Bills' 91-pt advantage. But even with their success, they must prove their worth against the oncoming Cowboys, who've won 4 straight, covering all 4, allowing no team to reach the 20-pt mark, allowing just 38 RYs in last week's 22-10 win (17-pt cover) over defending champion Rams. Sunday Nights normally are decided by a TD or less. In that case, we'll grab the 5 pts in this. RATING: DALLAS COWBOYS 88 NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Illinois, San Jose St, Buffalo, Eastern Mich -- NFL: San Fran, Buffalo, Denver
Totals Tipsheet #6.pdf
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vsin_pro_matchup_guide_oct__12-17.pdf
drive.google.com
VSiN 2022-23 NBA Betting Guide.pdf
drive.google.com
WP_7.pdf
drive.google.com
Newsletter Tracking Through October 10 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-495#post-13960320
Trying to post playbook says file too big
When it comes to POINTWISE scores I definitely don't play their totals. I don't do anything with their totals except shake my head at their attempt to predict/guess the score. Also, they don't post write ups explaining anything about the games.
Brad Powers has a successful newsletter that has a history of doing well with solid write ups. Last week, his only college 3* was on Miami Ohio/Kent State over 57 and he predicted a 31-30 score. He was predicting the game to go over by just a few points. (BTW, it ended 27-24).
Northcoast Sports (Power Sweep) stopped predicting scores to games a few years ago. They just tell you who will win and by how many points. They do give out totals (Saturday phone plays) but you can't guess make early guesses by looking at predicted scores in their newsletters.
I do like looking at all the newsletters and trying to find a few tidbits of info on hot teams, certain situations, etc.
Brad Powers has a successful newsletter that has a history of doing well with solid write ups. Last week, his only college 3* was on Miami Ohio/Kent State over 57 and he predicted a 31-30 score. He was predicting the game to go over by just a few points. (BTW, it ended 27-24).
Northcoast Sports (Power Sweep) stopped predicting scores to games a few years ago. They just tell you who will win and by how many points. They do give out totals (Saturday phone plays) but you can't guess make early guesses by looking at predicted scores in their newsletters.
I do like looking at all the newsletters and trying to find a few tidbits of info on hot teams, certain situations, etc.
Podcasts
Big Bets on Campus - /podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/big-bets-on-campus/id1579379256
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep Podcast - https://powersweep.podbean.com/
Stanford Steve and the Bear - /podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stanford-steve-the-bear/id1435385649
Big Bets on Campus - /podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/big-bets-on-campus/id1579379256
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep Podcast - https://powersweep.podbean.com/
Stanford Steve and the Bear - /podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stanford-steve-the-bear/id1435385649
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 7 college football picks, bets and nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 6 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 1-1. Season: 22-9-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-1. Season: 13-11-1)
The plays
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (-7, 65.5) at No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers
The Bear: Alabama on the road might be a thing, but I'm banking on the likely return of Heisman winner Bryce Young along with the most complete effort of the year by Alabama after last week's close call vs. Texas A&M. Can Tennessee finally break through and get a statement win? Sure. But I'm going to err on the side of until I see it, I can't go there, especially with the Vols being a massive public side. Nick Saban's team as a contrarian favorite? Sign me up.
Pick: Alabama -7
No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan (-7, 51.5)
Stanford Steve: The time is now for Penn State. We've all heard about how great James Franklin is at recruiting and the culture he has created in Happy Valley, now we need to see some results. Especially when he and his team go on the road to face a top 5 ranked team in Michigan. Franklin is 0-8 on the road against top 5 opponents. Penn State has also lost 15 straight on the road as an underdog vs. top 5 teams. But, this Penn State team is built different. They are 5th in the Big Ten in rushing, which improved from 13th last year. They have two RBs who average more than five yards a carry in freshman Nick Singleton (7.3) and Kaytron Allen (5.2). That run game with a defense that has traveled well wins at Purdue and at Auburn, led by a talented secondary makes me feel like Michigan is giving too many points. We'll take the road team plus the points.
Pick: Penn State +7 (Penn State 27 Michigan 26)
No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 13 TCU Horned Frogs (-4, 68.5)
The Bear: If you rank the 15 unbeatens in terms of Offensive EPA and Defensive EPA, Oklahoma State doesn't rank in the Top 10 in either category. Since getting into Big 12 play, Spencer Sanders has not been as dynamic as he was earlier in the year vs. lesser competition. After being on the field for over 100 plays last week and now facing what has been the Big 12's best offense, it could be a tough spot, despite my usual backing of Mike Gundy in a situation like this. I like TCU's offense too much not to think they back up last week's win at Kansas with a solid home win Saturday.
Pick: TCU -4
Stanford Steve: The Cowboys defense was on the field for 104 plays last week in their win over Texas Tech. Now they go on the road to Fort Worth to face a TCU team that is leading the country in yards per play (8.08). Horned Frogs WR Quentin Johnston amassed 14 catches for 201 yards and two touchdowns last week. I look for TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to continue to put Max Duggan in the best possible situations. I know Mike Gundy has been great as a short underdog the last decade plus (Gundy's teams are 13-2 straight up in games where the spread is between +3.5 and -3.5 since '10). We'll take the home team and lay the points.
Pick: TCU -4 (TCU 34 Oklahoma State 27)
No. 15 NC State at No. 18 Syracuse (-3.5, 42)
Stanford Steve: The cake walk is over for the 'Cuse. No more UConn or Wagner on the schedule. This stretch starting with NC State is followed by at Clemson, Notre Dame, at Pitt, FSU and at Wake Forest. Pretty daunting. So, this is likely the only time they will be favored during this stretch. They are off a bye week and the expectation here is for them to play well, led by RB, Sean Tucker who is 3rd in the ACC. Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader has only thrown one INT while throwing 10 TDs and NC State limps into this game likely without their starting QB and an offense that has sputtered all year. I like the spot here for the Orange.
Pick: Syracuse -3.5 (Syracuse 23 NC State 17)
Tulane Green Wave (-12, 55) at South Florida Bulls
The Bear: USF is 1-5 but have played Florida and Cincinnati tough. Tulane has been backed by yours truly a few times this year with a lot of success. However, with a home game vs. Memphis next week, this might be a spot where Tulane is a little flat. The Green Wave defense will ultimately get more stops, but laying 12 might be a bit rich.
Pick: South Florida +12
No. 7 USC at No. 20 Utah (-3.5, 63)
Stanford Steve: The game everyone had circled in the pre-season for the Pac-12 is here and it has lost some of its luster, thanks to the Utes having two road losses in games they were favored in. This will be the third road game for USC (even though I consider it their second, because visiting teams playing in Palo Alto count those as home games) and in their last road game their offense was held to 17 points in Corvallis, while Caleb Williams was held to 170 yards passing on 36 attempts. This Utah team is different from the Utes teams you saw in the past. There are no 300 pounders on the defensive line to help against the run game and create problems for opposing lineman. They have an undersized defensive line group, but their secondary is their strength which will be key against the Trojans' passing offense that features plenty of weapons. Utah had things get away last week in Pasadena after a red zone INT by Cameron Rising. The expectation here is Rising and the Utes offense will carry the squad in Salt Lake City to win. We'll take the home team and lay the points.
Pick: Utah -3.5 (Utah 29 USC 24)
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 7 college football picks, bets and nuggets (continued)
The Bear's money-line parlay
Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.$100 returns for $89
Last Week: +83
Season: -28
UCF Knights -2700
Notre Dame Fighting Irish -825
Texas Longhorns -825
South Alabama Jaguars -800
Ole Miss Rebels -700
Troy Trojans -780
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 2-4, -1.3 unitsSeason: 5-17, -8.8 units
Virginia Tech Hokies +245
Penn State Nittany Lions +230
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors+195
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +210
Bear bytes
Saturday is the second time in CFB history where there are three matchups of teams 5-0 or better on the same day: 5-0 Penn State at 6-0 Michigan, 6-0 Alabama at 5-0 Tennessee, and 5-0 Oklahoma State at 5-0 TCU. The other instance was October 16, 1993 when No. 1 Florida State beat No. 15 Virginia 40-14, No. 6 Nebraska beat unranked Kansas State 45-28 and No. 19 Auburn beat No. 4 Florida 38-35.No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers
This is the first time since 2016 Tennessee has 0 or 1 loss entering the Alabama game. No. 9 Tennessee (5-1) lost 49-10 to No. 1 Alabama that year. This is the first time since 1998 Tennessee is undefeated entering the Alabama game. Tennessee (5-0) beat unranked Alabama 35-18 that year.This may be as vulnerable as Alabama has been entering this game in quite some time. It's the first time since 2008 the Vols are a single-digit underdog vs. the Tide and in the last 14 games vs. SEC opponents, Alabama has either lost or recorded a single-digit win eight times. That's the same number of losses or single-digit wins the Tide had in the previous 49 games.
Tennessee fans have been clamoring for a win over the big boys in the SEC. In their last 11 meetings vs. Alabama and Georgia, Tennessee is 0-11, losing by an average of 30.7 PPG with no game closer than 22 points. And it's worse vs. just the Crimson Tide. Tennessee has lost 15 straight vs. Alabama by an average of 25.9 PPG, with only two games decided by less than 14 points.
Alabama vs. SEC opponents single-digit wins/losses
Last 14 games: 8
Previous 49 Games: 8
No. 7 USC Trojans at No. 20 Utah Utes
Since 2015 there has been 15 instances where a team 6-0 or better was an underdog to a team with at least two losses. Those 15 teams have gone 3-12 straight up. This is just the fourth time Lincoln Riley has been an underdog in a regular season game. Last year, Oklahoma lost to Oklahoma State as a four-point dog, while in 2017 the Sooners beat Oklahoma State and Ohio State as a dog.
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines
Under James Franklin, Penn State is 2-13 vs. Top 10 teams and since upsetting Wisconsin to win the 2016 Big Ten Championship, the Nittany Lions are 0-9 vs Top 10 teams, however five of the losses have come by four points or fewer.
Penn State has built its 5-0 start on a strength of schedule that ranks 90th. Michigan's 6-0 start has come against the 95th rated schedule in the country.
No. 15 NC State Wolfpack at No. 18 Syracuse Orange
This is the first Top 20-matchup at the Carrier Dome since the 1998 opener vs. Tennessee, which was won 34-33 by Tennessee to kick start the Vols' national title season.
No. 19 Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma Sooners
OU has given up the most points in Big 12 by 33 points and has scored the third fewest points.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes
The Canes have been favored three times this season over FBS opponents. They have failed to cover any of the three and lost outright to North Carolina as a four-point favorite and to Middle Tennessee as a 25.5-point favorite.
UConn Huskies at Ball State Cardinals
UConn is looking for its first three-game winning streak since 2015. The Huskies entered this season having won three of their last 33 games.
Wisconsin Badgers at Michigan State Spartans
This is the fifth straight game Michigan State has been a dog. The Spartans have lost each of the last four, losing by 29 as a 27-point dog, by 14 as a 7.5-point dog, by 27 as a 3-point dog and by 11 as a 3.5-point dog.
#4 Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles
Dating back to last year, Florida State has covered each of the last five games it has been a dog, winning three outright. The two losses came by two and three points.
Go buy it at Marc's site if you need it that bad. I can predict his picks though...…….
He can't help himself not to take Penn St and USC in NCAA he loves those road teams and I'm guessing he takes Denver in the NFL, they have no where but to go up after last week. He loves Wilson a lot.
If I'm wrong so be it.
He can't help himself not to take Penn St and USC in NCAA he loves those road teams and I'm guessing he takes Denver in the NFL, they have no where but to go up after last week. He loves Wilson a lot.
If I'm wrong so be it.
