Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 6 college football picks, bets and nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 6 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 4-2. Season: 21-8-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-1. Season: 7-9-1)
The plays
Houston at Memphis (-3, 57.5)
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis,
The Bear: I've faded the Cougars twice and have been on the right side both times. However this is a spot I like Houston. Memphis may be 4-1, but wins over Navy, Arkansas State, North Texas and Temple hardly get the juices flowing. If the Cougars haven't thrown in the towel on the season, they should win this game.
Pick: Houston +3
Purdue at Maryland (-3, 58.5)
12 p.m. ET, SECU Stadium, College Park, Maryland
Stanford Steve: When I watch these two teams play, the capability of each offense is ample simply due to the play making ability of each team's quarterbacks. Aiden O'Connell (Purdue) and Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland) have combined to throw for 16 touchdowns and I think they both add to that total with multiple TDs each. Plenty has been made of the improvement of the Boilers' defense and it surely has, but I think the Terps do some damage thru the air, as do the Boilers. I'll take the over.
Pick: Over 58.5 (Maryland 35 Purdue 34)
12 p.m. ET, David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence
Stanford Steve: Kansas wanted College GameDay and now they have College GameDay coming to town. One thing needs to happen for the Jayhawks is they need to play better than they did last week. And, I think they will. Jalon Daniels had his worst offensive game to date last week with 93 yards passing and nine yards rushing. He will be better this week, that is for sure. But, on the other side, you have an offense that comes in playing maybe the best in the country. Led by QB Max Duggan, who is coming off a start where he had 418 yards of total offense and accounted for four TDs, TCU has averaged the second-most points per game in the country (48.5). I think they score more than Kansas and cover the number. We'll take the road favorite.
Pick: TCU -6.5 (TCU 51 Kansas 40)
No. 21 Washington (-14, 56.5) at Arizona State
Stanford Steve: Last week, Washington went to Pasadena and suffered their first loss of the season. What I saw in that game was UCLA taking advantage of a Huskies secondary that might not be that good and was propped up from playing against teams like Michigan State, Stanford and others. I fully expect coach Kalen DeBoer to have his team ready and focused for a trip to Tempe, for a very rare day game at Sun Devil Stadium. I think the Huskies get back on track with the offense scoring a bunch of points and I think the Sun Devils score some also. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 56.5 (Washington 41 Arizona State 24)
No. 12 Oregon (-13, 70.5) at Arizona
9 p.m. ET, Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona
The Bear: Strange things happen when Oregon visits the state of Arizona. This could be another instance as Oregon is coming off a thumping of Stanford and a comeback at Washington State. Its a long trip and an opponent which will test the Ducks secondary. Arizona may not win, but 13 seems like its too many.
Pick: Arizona +13
Oregon Last 4 Games in Arizona as favorite
| Game | Spread | Opp W-L | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 at Arizona State | -13.5 | 5-5 | Lost by 3 | |
| 2018 at Arizona | -8 | 3-5 | Lost by 29 | |
| 2017 at Arizona State | -15 | 1-2 | Lost by 2 | |
| 2013 at Arizona | -20 | 6-4 | Lost by 26 |
Oregon State at Stanford (-7, 56.5)
11 p.m. ET, Stanford Stadium, Stanford, California
Stanford Steve: Only a couple teams in the country that haven't covered a game this year. Stanford is one of them. We'll take the road team and lay the points.
Pick: Oregon State -7 (Oregon State 34 Stanford 20)
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 6 college football picks, bets and nuggets (continued)
The Bear's money-line parlay
Like some big favorites but don't want to lay the points? Here are some to parlay together.$100 returns $83
Last Week: -100
Season: -111
Michigan Wolverines -1700
Clemson Tigers -1400
Ole Miss Rebels -800
Alabama Crimson Tide -2800
Mississippi State Bulldogs -320
San Diego State Aztecs -1800
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 1-5, -3.75 unitsSeason: 3-13, -7.5 units
UNLV Rebels +220
LSU Tigers +125
Purdue Boilermakers +140
Arizona Wildcats +375
Houston Cougars +130
Florida State Seminoles +140
Bear bytes
There are three ranked matchups this Saturday --- Utah at UCLA, Tennessee at LSU and TCU at Kansas. In all three, the road team is favored. In the previous 14 ranked matchups this season featuring a true road game, only three saw the road team favored -- Alabama at Arkansas last week, Clemson at Wake and Tennessee at Pitt. Road teams have won eight of the 14 ranked matchups this season.
This is the first time since 2009 Texas is favored over Oklahoma and the largest margin Texas has been favored over OU since Texas' 2005 national championship season.
Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State has been involved in 19 games in which the spread was within -3.5/+3.5. Iowa State is 5-14 (.263) in those 19 games. In that span -- since 2016 -- only one coach has a worse winning pct in "close spread" games, min 10 games - Kliff Kingsbury 1-9, .100. Rick Stockstill is also 5-14, .263.
Kansas has covered eight straight games dating back to last year, winning four times outright as a dog in that stretch.
Oregon State at Stanford
Stanford has lost ten straight games vs FBS opponents with each of the last seven coming by at least 13 points. In those seven games Stanford has allowed 42.7 PPG.
LSU has won four of its last five home games as an underdog. The other was a three point loss to Arkansas last year (and ATS push).
This is just the second time in the last 20 games that the Illini are favored in a Big Ten game. The other was vs Northwestern last year. Illinois hasn't been favored over Iowa since 2008.
Utah has dominated UCLA while Chip Kelly has been in Westwood. The Utes have been favored by 6, 21 and 11.5 and have won by 20, 46 and 31 - combined 134-37 margin.
Oregon doesn't go to Arizona much but weird things usually happen when they do. In their last four trips to the state as a favorite, the Ducks have lost outright as a favorite of more than a TD, three times vs a team that didn't have a winning record under three different coaches.
Louisville has failed to cover all three ACC games this year, losing twice outright as a favorite.
Ohio State has won each of the last five meetings by at least 20 points -- combined score 216-38. In the last two years with Mel Tucker at MSU, the Buckeyes have won 56-7 and 52-12, covering spreads of 19.5 and 22.5.
Auburn at No. 2 Georgia
There have been 18 30-point favorites in SEC conference games over the past five years. They have gone 6-12 ATS. Georgia is 1-4 ATS in this spot in that span.
UConn at Florida International
The is the first time since 2017 vs East Carolina that UConn is favored vs an FBS team not named UMass. And its the first time since 2015 at Tulane that the Huskies are a road favorite vs an FBS team not named UMass.
Recap
Gridiron Gold Best Bets:
CFB
Oklahoma +7
Illinois -3.5
Kansas St -2
Clemson -20.5
Washington St +13
Bonus CFB: Nevada -3
NFL
Chargers -3
Steelers +14
Titans -2
Texans +7
Red Sheet Plays:
College-
89 Illinois
89 UNC
88 SDST
88 Army
88 E Michigan
NFL-
88 KC
Records
Newsletter Tracking Through October 2 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-493#post-13953920
More
Stanford Steve and the Bear picks - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-494#post-13956001
American Turf Club October 10.pdf
drive.google.com
GoldSheet Wk6.pdf
drive.google.com
CFB
Oklahoma +7
Illinois -3.5
Kansas St -2
Clemson -20.5
Washington St +13
Bonus CFB: Nevada -3
NFL
Chargers -3
Steelers +14
Titans -2
Texans +7
Marc Lawrence's Playbook October 6-10.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Plays October 8.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep October 8.pdf
drive.google.com
Powers' Picks October 5-10.pdf
drive.google.com
College-
89 Illinois
89 UNC
88 SDST
88 Army
88 E Michigan
NFL-
88 KC
Totals Tipsheet #5.pdf
drive.google.com
VSiN 2022-23 NHL Betting Guide.pdf
drive.google.com
VSin Pro Matchups Guide October 5.pdf
drive.google.com
WP_6.pdf
drive.google.com
Records
Newsletter Tracking Through October 2 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-493#post-13953920
More
Stanford Steve and the Bear picks - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-494#post-13956001
Sports Reporter
Sports Reporter October 10.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox College Week 6.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox NFL Week 5.pdf
drive.google.com
Recap
Gridiron Gold Best Bets:
CFB
Oklahoma +7
Illinois -3.5
Kansas St -2
Clemson -20.5
Washington St +13
Bonus CFB: Nevada -3
NFL
Chargers -3
Steelers +14
Titans -2
Texans +7
Red Sheet Plays:
College-
89 Illinois
89 UNC
88 SDST
88 Army
88 E Michigan
NFL-
88 KC
Records
Newsletter Tracking Through October 2 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-493#post-13953920
More
Stanford Steve and the Bear picks - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-494#post-13956001
American Turf Club October 10.pdf
drive.google.com
GoldSheet Wk6.pdf
drive.google.com
CFB
Oklahoma +7
Illinois -3.5
Kansas St -2
Clemson -20.5
Washington St +13
Bonus CFB: Nevada -3
NFL
Chargers -3
Steelers +14
Titans -2
Texans +7
Marc Lawrence's Playbook October 6-10.pdf
drive.google.com
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Midweek Alert October 5-10.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox College Week 6.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox NFL Week 5.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Plays October 8.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep October 8.pdf
drive.google.com
Powers' Picks October 5-10.pdf
drive.google.com
College-
89 Illinois
89 UNC
88 SDST
88 Army
88 E Michigan
NFL-
88 KC
Sports Reporter October 10.pdf
drive.google.com
Totals Tipsheet #5.pdf
drive.google.com
VSiN 2022-23 NHL Betting Guide.pdf
drive.google.com
VSin Pro Matchups Guide October 5.pdf
drive.google.com
Winning Points October 12.pdf
drive.google.com
Records
Newsletter Tracking Through October 2 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-493#post-13953920
More
Stanford Steve and the Bear picks - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-494#post-13956001
