Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 5 college football picks, bets and nuggets
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica preview Week 5 of the 2022 college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Odds and lines are from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 6-0. Season: 17-6-1)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-0-1. Season: 7-9-1)
The plays
#18 Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5, 68.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
Stanford Steve: First Big 12 game for Sonny Dykes as head coach of the Horned Frogs off a week where he brought his team to face his old team, SMU, and got an impressive win in Dallas. On the other side, Brett Venables is fresh off his first loss as head man in Norman. The Sooners played their best game of the year in their first road game two weeks ago at Nebraska and then came home to be upset by the pesky Wildcats from Manhattan. This will be a wild game -- high scoring, high energy, big plays and players making plays all over the field. But, when I look at the matchup. I think TCU has the goods to hang around with OU. They have three mobile quarterbacks who can play, and when you think about the Sooners last week, it wasn't the offense that was the problem, it was the defense getting off the field on 3rd downs and making tackles in space. TCU will be a problem and we'll take the home team to cover the points.
Pick: TCU +6.5 (Oklahoma 34, TCU 31)
Iowa State Cyclones (-3, 58) at Kansas Jayhawks
The Bear: Yes, Iowa State has struggled in close games. Yes, the turnover big got them again last week. Yes, the Kansas offense has been fantastic this season. But this will be by far the best defense KU has faced this season and one just gets a sense the KU bubble could burst at any moment, especially in a spot where it has public dog written all over it.
Pick: Iowa State -3
#17 Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-4, 45)
Stanford Steve: I might be crazy, but I thought the Razorbacks were the better team last week, but they could never get over that turnover by QB, RJ Jefferson and the Aggies rode that momentum and won it late on a missed field goal. This week feels different. The Bulldogs came out last week in a no-nonsense attitude and did what they were supposed to do and bury an inferior opponent, Bowling Green. I bring that up because the Bulldogs let a winnable game get away from them the week previous in Baton Rouge. So, I think the focus is there for State to play well in front of their fans versus a team they beat last year in College Station. It's unfortunate, but I think it's a huge loss for A&M, as stud wide receiver Ainias Smith was hurt last week and will miss the remainder of the season. I think the Bulldogs contain Devon Achane and the Aggies' run game, so I'll take the home team and lay the points.
Pick: Mississippi State -4 (Mississippi State 27, Texas A&M 20)
#7 Kentucky Wildcats at #14 Ole Miss Rebels (-7, 54)
The Bear: Another dream spot for Mark Stoops and the Cats, disrespected and catching points despite that road win at Florida. We probably shouldn't read too much into Ole Miss' scoreless second half last week, but it will need Jaxson Dart to produce, as the Rebels' running game is unlikely to produce a huge game against a very good UK defense.
Pick: Kentucky +7
#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys at #16 Baylor Bears (-2, 56.5)
Stanford Steve: This matchup is very interesting to me for a couple reasons. First, it's a rematch of the Big 12 Title game from a year ago. Plus, it's between teams that have very different résumés to date this season. Baylor has already gone on the road in tough places and lost at BYU (in OT) and won in Ames, Iowa, last week vs. the Cyclones. The Pokes have been very impressive on the offensive side of the ball in home wins vs. Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas Pine-Bluff, as Spencer Sanders looks like a legit first-team All-Big 12 quarterback (916 yards, 10 TDs, 1 INT). But I like the idea of Baylor having faced more adversity so far this season in road games in tough environments. Just like last year, I think Baylor's defense makes some plays late to win a very well-played game. I'll take the home team to win a close game.
Pick: Baylor money line (-$130), (Baylor 27, Oklahoma State 25)
College Pick 'Em
Oregon State Beavers at #12 Utah Utes (-10, 54.5)
The Bear: Have to think Oregon State is feeling a little empty after letting one get away vs. USC last week. The Beavers also aren't very good against the run, which could be a problem this week in Salt Lake vs. one of the more physical OL in the league. Not having Brant Kuithe could be a big problem long term for the Utes, but Saturday they should be fine on their home field.
Pick: Utah -10
UTSA Roadrunners (-4.5, 63) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
The Bear: The Blue Raiders are coming off one of the more shocking wins in recent memory, completely dominating a lifeless Miami team coming off a tough loss in College Station. As good as they were last week, remember this is a MTSU team which had 119 yards in a 44-7 loss to James Madison. The Roadrunners got a soft landing spot last week after blowing a lead vs. Texas and Frank Harris and the UTSA offense should continue to produce.
Pick: UTSA -4
Tulane Green Wave at Houston Cougars (-2.5, 54.5)
The Bear: Seems like there's just a lot going on in Houston right now. The team which was seen as a challenger to Cincinnati seems to have some infighting and a bad OL. Not a good combo against a team which two weeks ago beat Kansas State in Manhattan before a flat effort last week in a loss to Southern Miss. The Tulane defense hasn't given up more than 336 yards in any game this season and could make life hard on the Cougars here.
Pick: Tulane +2.5
Cincinnati Bearcats (-9.5, 58.5) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
The Bear: Tulsa is the unattractive sounding underdog that all it does is seemingly cover -- 13 covers in past 15 tries, including three easy ones vs Cincinnati. Would think the Golden Hurricane are feeling pretty good about themselves after giving Ole Miss all it could handle last week. If they can slow down Ben Bryant and the Cincinnati passing game just enough, they have a real shot to pull the outright upset.
Pick: Tulane +9.5
Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 5 college football picks, bets and nuggets (continued)
The Bear's money-line parlay
$100 wins $132Last Week: -139
Season: -11
Penn State Nittany Lions -3000
Pittsburgh Panthers -2500
Memphis Tigers -1100
Utah Utes -385
USC Trojans -3900
Fresno State Bulldogs -2700
Nebraska Cornhuskers -210
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 1-5, -2.9 unitsSeason: 2-8, -3.75 units
Tulane Green Wave +125
San Diego State Aztecs +230
Virginia Cavaliers +130
Tulsa Golden Hurricane +270
Auburn Tigers +280
Kentucky Wildcats +235
Bear bytes
Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas RazorbacksIs "Alabama on the road" a thing? Well, over the past five road games the Tide have played, you've cashed easily if you backed the home team. Bama has won just one of its past five road games by more than a field goal, and two of its four wins in the span saw the Tide win late, despite being on average an 18.5-point favorite.
Alabama Last 5 True Road Games
�| Game | Spread | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 at Texas | -21.5 | Won 20-19 | < |
| 2021 at Auburn | -20.5 | Won 24-22 | < |
| 2021 at Miss State | -17.5 | Won 49-9 | |
| 2021 at Texas A&M | -18.5 | Lost 41-38 | |
| 2021 at 11 Florida | -14 | Won 31-29 | |
| < Alabama scored winning points in final minute or OT |
Kinnick Stadium has been a house of horrors for Top 5 teams lately. Only one of the past six Top 5 teams to visit Kinnick has walked out a winner. The one team to win, Penn State in 2017, won on the final play of the game. Twice in this span Iowa beat a Top 5 team as an unranked team and at least a 20-point underdog.
Iowa Last 6 Home Games vs Top 5 Teams
�| Game | Spread | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4 Penn State | +2.5 | Won 23-20 |
| 2017 | 3 Ohio State | +20.5 | Won 55-24 < |
| 2017 | 4 Penn State | +13 | Lost 21-19 < |
| 2016 | 2 Michigan | +21 | Won 14-13 < |
| 2010 | 5 Michigan State | -6.5 | Won 37-6 |
| 2008 | 3 Penn State | +7.5 | Won 24-23 < |
| < Iowa entered game unranked |
Kentucky has won six of its past 13 games outright as an underdog. Four of those wins came as at least a six-point dog.
Oklahoma Sooners at TCU Horned Frogs
Oklahoma has covered six of the last seven vs. TCU, with five of the wins coming by at least 18 points in instances the Sooners were a single-digit favorite.
NC State Wolfpack at Clemson Tigers
This is the third straight time Clemson is a single-digit favorite in a home game vs. a Power 5 opponent. The last time prior to this that Clemson had a streak of three straight games vs. P5 opponents in which it was not a double-digit favorite came at the end of the 2010/start of the 2011 season.
Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona Wildcats
This is the first time since 2017 that Arizona is at least a 17-point favorite over a Power 5 opponent. That year, Arizona was a 21-point favorite over Oregon State and won by exactly 21.
Colorado is 0-4 against the number this year. On average, CU has been a 20-point dog and lost by an average of 31.5 PPG.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Dating back to 2019, Tulsa has been an underdog 15 times. In those games, it has covered 13 and won four outright. The only two the Golden Hurricane didn't cover was a 2020 bowl loss to Miss State (one-point dog, lost by two) and a 2019 loss to Tulane (10-point dog, lost by 12). Included in that stretch are three games vs. Cincinnati where Tulsa was an underdog of 22.5, 13.5 and 16 points and lost by 8, 11 and 3.
California Golden Bears at Washington State Cougars
Fewer coaches have been as successful as Justin Wilcox as an underdog. Wilcox is 24-9 ATS and has 13 outright wins at Cal as a dog.
Iowa State Cyclones at Kansas Jayhawks
Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State has been involved in 18 games in which the spread was within -3.5/+3.5. Iowa State is 5-13 (.278) in those 18 games. In that span, since 2016, only three coaches have a worse winning percentage in "close spread" games (minimum 10 games). Those coaches are Kliff Kingsbury 1-9, .100, Rick Stockstill 5-14, .263 and Tom Allen 3-8, .273.
Kansas has covered seven straight games dating back to last year, winning three times outright as a dog in that stretch.
Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils
Duke has lost 14 of its last 18 ACC games in which its been favored. That dates back to 2015.
Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons
Dating back to 2016, underdogs have covered 14 of 17 games between service academies, winning 10 outright. Air Force has blown out Navy each of the last two years winning by a combined score of 63-10 and the last two in Colorado Springs have been two Falcon wins by scores of 40-7 and 35-7.
Colorado -- home of bad football
Colorado and Colorado State are not only a combined 0-8, the Buffs and Rams haven't even been close, losing by an average of 30.9 PPG and neither has scored 20 points in a game.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Baylor Bears
Since 2016, Mike Gundy has excelled in these types of games. Oklahoma State is 13-3 in games where the spread is within +3.5/-3.5. Even more impressive is that since 2010, Gundy's teams are 12-2 away from home in situations like this.
Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels
Something's gotta give! Dating back to last year, UNC has failed to cover seven of its past eight games as a favorite. UNC is 3-3 in its past six games as a favorite vs. FBS teams, with its wins coming by 7, 3 and 3. On the other hand, Virginia Tech has failed to cover 11 of its past 15 games, and its past two games as an underdog have resulted in losses by 23 and 44 points.
Boise State Broncos vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Boise State is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite with six outright losses in that span.
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
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Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox College Week 5.pdf
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Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL
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Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL Week 4 all games.pdf
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Recap
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Red Sheet Plays:
College-
89 UNLV
89 Southern Cal
88 Kan St
88 Illinois
88 Kentucky
NFL-
88 Texans
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Records
Newsletter Tracking Through September 26 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-490#post-13949594
More
Podcasts - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-491#post-13950440
Stanford Steve and the Bear picks - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-492#post-13950937
American Turf Club October 3.pdf
drive.google.com
GoldSheet Week 5.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox College Week 5.pdf
drive.google.com
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL Week 4 all games.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook September 29 - October 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Playbook Midweek Alert September 29 - October 3.pdf
drive.google.com
Pointwise October 1.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Plays October 1.pdf
drive.google.com
Power Sweep October 1.pdf
drive.google.com
Powers' Picks September 29 - October 3.pdf
drive.google.com
College-
89 UNLV
89 Southern Cal
88 Kan St
88 Illinois
88 Kentucky
NFL-
88 Texans
Totals Tipsheet Wk 4.pdf
drive.google.com
VSiN 2022-23 NHL Betting Guide.pdf
drive.google.com
VSiN Pro Matchups Guide September 28.pdf
drive.google.com
Winning Points October 5.pdf
drive.google.com
Newsletter Tracking Through September 26 - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-490#post-13949594
More
Podcasts - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-491#post-13950440
Stanford Steve and the Bear picks - https://www.therx.com/threads/newsletters.971451/page-492#post-13950937
Week 4 selections for Circa Friday Football Invitational
BOBBY “BUCKETS” BRUBECK
TCU + 5.5
Arkansas + 17.5
Central Michigan + 7
Indiana-Nebraska Over 60.5
(BB) Oklahoma State-Baylor Over 55.5
Record (points): 7-8 (7)
Best Bets: 1-2 (1)
CHUCK EDEL
Boston College + 14
Georgia Southern-Coastal Carolina Over 65
Florida Atlantic-North Texas Over 67.5
Browns-Falcons Over 47
(BB) Buccaneers pick
Record (points): 12-3 (12)
Best Bets: 2-1 (2)
BRIAN EDWARDS
Baylor -2
Arkansas + 17.5
Texans + 5
Browns-Falcons Over 47
(BB) Kentucky + 7
Record (points): 5-10 (5)
Best Bets: 2-1 (2)
CHRIS “THE BEAR” FALLICA
Purdue + 12
Iowa State -3
Michigan -10.5
49ers -1.5
(BB) Utah -10.5
Record (points): 10-5 (10)
Best Bets: 3-0 (3)
STEVE FEZZIK
Army -7.5
Texas Tech-Kansas State Under 57.5
Texas A&M-Mississippi State Under 46.5
Wyoming + 3
(BB) Vikings -3
Record (points): 11-4 (11)
Best Bets: 3-0 (3)
JOEY “TUNES” FORTUNA
Georgia Southern-Coastal Carolina Over 65
Cal-Washington State Under 53.5
Mississippi -6.5
UTEP-Charlotte Over 54.5
(BB) Texas A&M-Mississippi State Under 46.5
Record (points): 6-9 (6)
Best Bets: 1-2 (1)
DOUG KEZIRIAN
New Mexico State -14.5
Utah -10.5
Arkansas + 17.5
Georgia -29
(BB) LSU -8
Record (points): 9-6 (9)
Best Bets: 2-1 (2)
MARC LAWRENCE
Oklahoma State + 2
Iowa + 10.5
Cardinals + 1
Buccaneers pick
(BB) 49ers -1.5
Record (points): 9-6 (9)
Best Bets: 3-0 (3)
RANDY MCKAY
Florida Atlantic-North Texas Under 67.5
Vikings -3
Steelers -3
Patriots-Packers Under 40.5
(BB) Iowa + 10.5
Record (points): 10-5 (10)
Best Bets: 2-1 (2)
MIKE NORTH
Saints + 3
Browns -1
Patriots + 9
Buccaneers pick
(BB) Commanders + 3
Record (points): 7-8 (7)
Best Bets: 2-1 (2)
MIKE PALM
Penn State -25.5
Titans + 4
Bills -3
Cowboys -3
(BB) Purdue-Minnesota Under 52
Record (points): 11-4 (11)
Best Bets: 3-0 (3)
ERIN RYNNING
Georgia Southern-Coastal Carolina Over 65
Georgia State-Army Under 54
Indiana-Nebraska Under 60.5
Broncos-Raiders Over 45.5
(BB) Vikings -3
Record (points): 6-9 (6)
Best Bets: 0-3 (0)
DAN SALEY
Georgia Southern + 10
Army -8
Tulsa + 10
Wyoming + 3
(BB) Raiders -2.5
Record (points): 7-8 (7)
Best Bets: 1-2 (1)
JAMES SALINAS
UL Lafayette + 8.5
Titans + 4
Seahawks + 4
Buccaneers pick
(BB) Steelers -3
Record (points): 9-6 (9)
Best Bets: 1-2 (1)
PAUL STONE
Oregon State + 10.5
Texas A&M-Mississippi State Under 47
Iowa + 10.5
Arkansas + 17.5
(BB) Wyoming + 3
Record (points): 8-7 (8)
Best Bets: 1-2 (1)
JEFF WHITELAW
West Virginia + 9
Vikings -3
Steelers -3
Raiders -2.5
(BB) Cowboys -3
Record (points): 8-7 (8)
Best Bets: 1-2 (1)
MATT YOUMANS
Iowa + 10.5
Arkansas + 17.5
Steelers -3
49ers -1.5
(BB) Raiders -2.5
Record (points): 8-7 (8)
Best Bets: 3-0 (3)
CRIS ZENIUK
Cowboys -3
Browns -1
Chiefs pick
49ers -1.5
(BB) Jaguars + 6.5
Record (points): 6-9 (6)
Best Bets: 1-2 (1)
From - https://www.vsin.com/week-4-selections-for-circa-friday-football-invitational/
