Stanford Steve and The Bear: Conference championship college football picks, bets, nuggets (continued)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-3, 72.5) at UTSA Roadrunners
Fallica: Great spot to back UTSA off its worst game of the year as it plays in its biggest game of the year. Look for the UTSA defense to make some plays against the explosive WKU offense.
Pick: UTSA +3
Appalachian State Mountaineers (-3, 53) at No. 24 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Stanford Steve: Plenty has been made of the Ragin' Cajuns coach Billy Napier leaving to take the Florida job but still deciding to coach this game for his team and players. Plenty has also been made about the Ragin' Cajuns being an underdog even though they beat the Mountaineers 41-13 earlier in the season. I just think the Louisiana players will play their butts off in their last game with their coach, and they are at home. I'll take the home team plus the points.
Pick: Louisiana +3 (Louisiana 21, Appalachian State 20)
Fallica: Maybe I'm getting sucked in here, as the Ragin' Cajuns blew out the Mountaineers during a game in which they committed four turnovers. But I think Louisiana gets it done here after not being able to play for a conference title last year and losing a close one to Appalachian State a couple of years ago. I get the sense Napier really wants to send his guys out a winner before moving on to Gainesville.
Pick: Louisiana +3
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 2-3, +1.1 units
Season: 28-50, +1.3 units
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns +120
Alabama Crimson Tide +210
Utah State Aggies +185
Bear bytes
Upset-free except for Pac-12?
Since 2017, two of four Pac-12 championship games resulted in an underdog winning outright. In the other four Power 5 leagues, none of the 16 games resulted in an underdog winning outright.
In the playoff era, there have been 24 Power 5 favorites of greater than four points in conference championship games. They are 23-1 straight up, with Utah's loss to Oregon in 2019 as a 6.5-point favorite the only loss. Georgia, Michigan and Oklahoma State -- the latter two making their first conference title game appearance -- are all greater than a four-point favorite, with CFP hopes in the balance.
If you include AAC favorites of greater than four points in that span, that number grows to 27-1, with Cincinnati a double-digit favorite this week in search of a playoff berth.
Gotta be in the top six
No team outside the top six in the CFP ranking on Championship Saturday has reached the CFP. In 2017, Georgia was sixth, as was Oklahoma in 2019.
No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide
Since 2018, Georgia has faced 16 ranked opponents. Thirteen of the 16 games have gone under the total. On the flip side, nine of the past 11 SEC championship games have gone over the total.
The last underdog to win the SEC title game was Alabama in 2009.
This is just the second time in the past 165 games that Alabama has been an underdog.
Georgia has led 10 of 12 games this year by at least 14 points at halftime, including each of the past five.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at No. 24 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana has won five of its past seven games outright as an underdog, including twice over the Mountaineers.
No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 13 Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa hasn't been a double-digit 'dog since 2017, when it lost 38-14 to Wisconsin. However, the Hawkeyes have won two of the past two games in which they were a double-digit dog -- in 2017 against Ohio State and in 2016 versus Michigan.
Favorites are just 2-8 against the spread in Big Ten championship games, losing four outright. However, since losing four of the first six, favorites have won the past four (all were Ohio State).
Favorites not named Ohio State are 0-5 ATS in the Big Ten title game.
Utah State Aggies at No. 19 San Diego State Aztecs
Utah State has been an underdog six times this year and won four of the games outright. 'Dogs have covered six of the eight MWC title games since 2013.
No. 21 Houston Cougars at No. 4 Cincinnati Bearcats
In two meetings between Dana Holgorsen and Luke Fickell, the Bearcats have won and covered both meetings as greater than a touchdown favorite in each.
No. 9
Baylor Bears vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Baylor has been an underdog four times this year, winning three outright. The only instance the Bears didn't win was as a four-point 'dog in a 24-14 loss to Oklahoma State.
Baylor was plus-3 in turnover margin versus Oklahoma State in the first meeting and didn't commit a turnover. There have been 88 games this year in which a team didn't commit a turnover and forced at least three. Those teams went 81-7.