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Easy Pickins
MEMPHIS (-14.5) by 23.89 over Ala.-Birmingham (UAB) - Saturday, November 16. The trend is pointing lower on the computer with a margin of 18.53, but that still easily exceeded the 14.5-point spread. Trent Dilfer has returned UAB to being one of the worst teams in the country after Bill Clark worked so hard to bring it out of the ashes to a pair of conference championships not so long ago. And when Clark suddenly retired for health reasons before the 2022 season, assistant Bryant Vincent led the Blazers to a 7-6 finish and a bowl win. But the school opted to hire Dilfer instead of retaining Vincent and the program has plummeted to 6-15 under his direction (4-9 in the American Conference), Meanwhile, Vincent went to UL-Monroe and beat Dilfer & Co. 32-6 earlier this year, and has taken the Warhawks from laughing stock to a competitive 5-4 (3-4) in the Sun Belt (though they have now lost 3 straight). Memphis is 3rd on offense and 4th on defense in the conference, while UAB is 8th on offense and 7th on defense.
BYU (-2.5) by 5.65 over Kansas - Saturday, November 16. The computer trend line blows the margin up to 14.37 for the Cougars who are 3-1 ATS at home while Kansas is 1-3 ATS as the visitor. Interestingly, BYU is 0-2 versus Kansas. The Cougars lost 38-27 in Lawrence last year, and 23-20 in Honolulu in the Aloha Bowl in 1992, so this is the first time the two have met at BYU.
USC (-7) by 17.52 over Nebraska - Saturday, November 16. After opening at 8.5, the spread could be found at 7 at several sportsbooks late Thursday night/early Friday morning.The Trojans are just 4-5 over-all, but they are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS at home. The computer trend line has only a slightly lower margin at 16.08.
JACKSONVILLE STATE (-12.5) by 16.14 over Florida International (FIU) - Saturday, November 16. After opening at 13.5, this game could be found at 12.5 at such sportsbooks as FanDuel and MGM early Friday morning. The computer trend line has Jax State by 20.04. Last week, Jax State rallied from 9 down at Louisiana Tech in the final 6 minutes to force overtime and then pull out the 44-37 win. FIU was a 34-13 winner at home over NMSU to end a 3-game losing streak. Jax State (6-3, 5-0) is tied for the CUSA lead. FIU (3-6, 2-3) must win-out to be bowl eligible for the first time under Mike MacIntyre whose records with the school are 11-22 over-all and 5-16 in conference play. He has had two winning seasons in 11 completed campaigns. One of those came at SJSU (2012) and the other at Colorado (2016). Since them he's 21-35 overall, and 9-29 in conference games. The job Rich Rodriguez has done at Jax State has been nothing short of special after being hired to guide the transition from the FCS to the FBS. In his lone season with Jax State in the FCS, his team went 9-2. Then, in his first season in the FBS, the Gamecocks were 9-4 and finished 3rd in CUSA while capping off the year with a New Orleans Bowl win. This year, his team is 5-3 over-all, but 4-0 and tied with WKU atop the conference standings. He has records of 23-9 overall and 15-2 vs. conference foes. After this week's game, they will host a Sam Houston (7-2, 4-1) team that is also in its second season in the FBS and CUSA, before visiting WKU. Does that mean the eyes will be off the prize this week? We sincerely doubt it.
ILLINOIS (-2.5) by 7.34 over Michigan State - Saturday, November 16. The Illini haven't exactly been world-beaters and they've lost 2 straight after starting 6-1. The offense has struggled against really good defenses, scoring just 9 vs Oregon and 7 vs Penn State. Last week's loss to Minnesota snapped a 5-game home winning streak. Michigan State scored at 10 Oregon, so no big difference there. The Spartans have lost 5 of their last 6 games, but the win was a 32-20 home upset of Iowa three weeks ago to remind us that strange things can happen. The computer trend line has Illinois by 8.66 points.
Upsets
*-UTSA by 9.21 over North Texas (-1.5) - *-The spread listed above actually flipped before kickoff to align with the computer's pick of UTSA as the favorite (-1.5), so it can no longer be counted as an Upset Pick and was moved to the Easy Pickins category.
Friday, November 15. The computer trend line has North Texas beating the opening spread (-1.5) as it favors the Mean Green by 3.48. UNT leads the American Conference in total offense and UTSA is 5th in total defense. North Texas relies on the passing game for 70% of its yardage and the UTSA pass defense ranks next-to-last in the conference and 131st nationally. UTSA gets nearly 69% of its offense through the air and ranks 2nd in pass offense while the UNT pass defense ranks 11th. The Roadrunners are 3-1 ATS at home while North Texas is 2-2 ATS on the road.
Arkansas State by 1.56 over GEORGIA STATE (-3) - Saturday, November 16. After opening at 2.5, this game had universally moved to 3 early Friday morning. The computer trend line has GSU by 1.44 points. The Panthers are just 1-3 ATS at home while the Red Wolves are 2-3 ATS on the road. Both teams have horrendous defensive stats, but a glaring difference surfaces on offense where Arkansas State ranks 3rd in the Sun Belt vs. conference teams and Georgia State ranks 10th.
WEST VIRGINIA by 6.49 over Baylor (-2.5) - Saturday, November 16. WVU is looking for its first 3-game winning streak of the season while Baylor will try to pocket a fourth consecutive victory. The computer trend line has the Bears by 1.62 points, but the they're just 2-2 ATS on the road. The Mountaineers, however, are only 1-4 ATS at home. West Virginia has a 50-50 balance between passing and rushing and Baylor isn't far off with a slight edge through the air. These teams stack up pretty even statistically speaking so we would tend to lean toward the home team since no other advantage stands out.
Florida Atlantic by 0.18 over TEMPLE (-2.5) - Saturday, November 16. Temple has only been favored this year on one other occasion and won that game outright to make the Owls 1-0 ATS as the favorite. The Owls are actually 3-1 ATS as the home team while FAU is 1-3 ATS on the road. BUT, Temple has the worst offense in the American Conference and the teams are about even on defense. The computer trend line has Temple by 3.70.
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