Newsletters

[BuzzKill]

Podcasts
Big Bets on Campus - /podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/big-bets-on-campus/id1579379256
Marc Lawrence's September 27 Podcast with Victor King - /soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2021-09-29-marc-lawrence-podcast
Stanford Steve and the Bear - /www.espn.com/radio/play/_/id/32306387

 

[BuzzKill]

Podcasts
Big Bets on Campus - /podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/big-bets-on-campus/id1579379256
Marc Lawrence's September 27 Podcast with Victor King - /soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2021-09-29-marc-lawrence-podcast
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep Podcast- /powersweep.podbean.com/e/week-5-power-sweep-podcast-presented-by-northcoast-sports/
Stanford Steve and the Bear - /www.espn.com/radio/play/_/id/32306387

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 5 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 3-2. Season: 9-10)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 5-2. Season: 14-8)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

---

[h=2]The Plays[/h]

No. 22 Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-3.5, 55.5)
Fallica: That was a really good win by LSU last week. The Tigers took advantage of every chance the Bulldogs gave them, the young players played well and they kept their season from spiraling downhill. Auburn probably should have lost last week, and maybe they cycle back to a good effort this week, but I dunno. Things just seem "off" there. The QB position seems to be a problem, and now Auburn goes on the road to this environment and might have to play LSU transfer TJ Finley? Nothing about the situation seems ideal for Auburn.
Pick: LSU -3.5
Stanford Steve: The optics of the Auburn win last week told me a lot. Starting QB benched and sulking down at the other end of the field as his team tries to rally for a comeback win. A third critical catch that should not have even been a catch. The fan base crying for the backup to start this week. All I know is I have been to Death Valley for many a Saturday night, and that is not a good place for a road team that appears to be in turmoil. I do think the LSU defensive line can cause some serious problems for that Auburn O-line. I'll take the home team and lay the points.
Pick: LSU -3.5 (LSU 26 Auburn 19)

No. 14 Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers (-1.5, 43.5)
Stanford Steve: They are trying to tell us something. The road team has zero turnovers and is undefeated this year and the home team, which has nine turnovers and two losses this year, and is favored. The Badgers surrendered only 9 yards rushing in their loss to Notre Dame last week, and are giving up only 23 yards on the ground per game. Michigan ran for only 112 vs. Rutgers last week and converted only two first downs in the second half. I think the home team plays its best game to date in front of its home crowd and wins and covers.
Pick: Wisconsin -1.5 (Wisconsin 27, Michigan 21)
Fallica: Yes, Graham Mertz is a turnover machine and has a QBR of 8.6 vs. Power 5 teams this year. And yes, he has more INTs and sacks combined (nine) than TDs and 20-yard passes (five). But I think Rutgers' performance last week may have provided a cheat sheet on stopping Michigan. Sell out at all costs to stop the run, and if Cade McNamara can beat you, so be it -- last week he was 1-for-5 for 7 yards in the second half as Michigan didn't convert a single third down and was outgained 231-42. Now they face a Wisconsin defense that has allowed 75 rushing yards all season, had six sacks a week ago and has allowed fewer offensive TDs than any other team aside from Georgia. It's now or never for a beleaguered Badgers team, and I trust Jim Leonhard will have his defense ready for a big effort.
Pick: Wisconsin -1.5

No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats (-2, 50.5) at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Stanford Steve: All I needed to see was that Notre Dame was an underdog at home. The Irish have won five straight in this situation under Brian Kelly. As much as I have wanted Cincinnati to make the playoff this year, I worry about this spot. I expected more from the Bearcats in their first true road game at Indiana a couple of weeks ago. Don't get me wrong -- they did what they needed to do, and that was win the game, but this is a whole different situation. The expectation here is that Jack Coan will start, and most importantly, play well. And when I look at the other side, no one knows Bearcats QB Desmond Ridder better than new Notre Dame DC Marcus Freeman after having gone against him every day in practice the previous three years. Gotta take the Irish as a home dog in this situation.
Pick: Notre Dame +2 (Notre Dame 24, Cincinnati 20)

Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 15 Texas A&M Aggies (-7, 46)
Fallica: Talk about a brutal spot for the Aggies. You're coming off an offensive no-show in a loss to Arkansas and you have Alabama coming in next week. Playing the role of sandwich is a Mississippi State team with a more-than-capable offense and a defense that just might be able to shut down the Aggies' running game and see if Zach Calzada can beat them. To this point, he and his offensive line have shown that's not a certainty. In two games vs. Power 5 teams, Calzada is averaging 4.8 YPA and the Aggies have run for just 219 yards. In the end, Mississippi State might just be good enough to get you beat, as they were last week vs. LSU, but I have to take the 7 points.
Pick: Mississippi State +7

Washington State Cougars at California Golden Bears (-7.5, 52)
Fallica: The Bears have the market cornered on close calls this year, losing to Nevada by five, TCU by 2 and Washington in OT. They might just get the necessary elixir this week in the form of the Pac-12 North's worst team. In two games vs. Pac-12 foes, Wazzu has scored 27 points and averaged less than 300 yards per game. I expect Justin Wilcox's team to let out some frustration this week.
Pick: Cal -7.5

Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos (-6.5, 59)
Fallica: I could certainly be wrong, but this feels like a bit of a reputation line. Nevada couldn't win as a favorite in Manhattan a couple of weeks ago but has had time to regroup. Remember, this is a team that has won at Cal. Boise won an ugly game in Logan last week as Utah State hindered itself with turnovers and penalties. The Broncos' defense will need to be at its best to slow down Carson Strong and company, and at the very least, I expect the Wolf Pack to be in this until the end.
Pick: Nevada +6.5

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at No. 17 Michigan State Spartans (-10.5, 64.5)
Fallica: I had some fun last week on Twitter watching Nebraska and Michigan State, notably the Huskers' awful special teams, but that Michigan State second-half offense ... wow. Maybe a drop down to C-USA opposition will help, but this is a pretty good C-USA team. The Hilltoppers lost by a field goal at Army and their comeback vs. Indiana fell short last week because of a questionable fourth-down decision to punt. This is a great spot for WKU. Last week you were right there with a Big Ten team and now you get another opportunity right away to try and finish the job. This line feels high, which of course means WKU will be down seven with the ball and throw a late pick-six, as Michigan State has definitely had voodoo power over opponents this year.
Pick: Western Kentucky +10.5

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies (-2.5, 60)
Stanford Steve: Both teams give up over 400 yards of offense and both teams average more than 370 yards on offense per game. Both teams have played in some wild games already this season. I just trust the team coached by Chris Creighton more. I'll take the road team plus the points.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +2.5 (Eastern Michigan 31, Northern Illinois 28)

Liberty Flames at UAB Blazers (-2, 49.5)
Stanford Steve: For two straight weeks we will be going against the Flames from Liberty. This situation has all the goods for the home team. The Blazers under Bill Clark are gonna be playing their first game in the brand-new 45,000 seat Protective Stadium in Birmingham. The festivities will start with the UAB Marching Blazers band taking the field and then there will be the raising of the Conference USA championship flag pregame to honor last year's league championship ... all that you want in a home team playing its first game in a new stadium in an area of the country where they love them some college football. The Flames have played way lesser competition and are fresh off their first loss of the season at Syracuse. I like the home team to win and cover.
Pick: UAB -2 (UAB 29, Liberty 21)

Troy Trojans at South Carolina Gamecocks (-7, 42.5)
Fallica: Who wants to take a team that lost to UL Monroe as a 23.5-point favorite last week? This guy does! All one can really do is chalk that game up as a fluke and move on. Troy's defense has played well this year, allowing no more than 339 yards in any game and forcing seven turnovers. That could be a problem for a South Carolina offense that has run for one TD this year and has scored 20, 13 and 10 points vs. FBS opponents in 2021. If Troy can score 20, that means the Gamecocks have to score 28 to beat you, and I'm not sure they can.
Pick: Troy +7

---

[h=3]The Bear's money-line parlay[/h]Last Week: +91
Season: -209
$100 returns $241
North Carolina Tar Heels -1100
Penn State Nittany Lions -475
Memphis Tigers -430
California Golden Bears -305
Kent State Golden Flashes -900
SMU Mustangs -1400
Georgia Bulldogs -1100
Alabama Crimson Tide -700
UTSA Roadrunners -1600

---

[h=3]The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line[/h]Last Week: 3-3, +2.5 units
Season: 12-10, +15.4 units
Minnesota Golden Gophers +115
Troy Trojans +235
Eastern Michigan Eagles +125
Buffalo Bulls +215
Nevada Wolfpack +210
Tennessee Volunteers +135
TCU Horned Frogs +180
Mississippi State Bulldogs +250

---

[h=3]Bear Bytes[/h]Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes
Miami has failed to cover five of its last six games as a favorite vs. FBS teams. The Canes lost two of those games by at least 21 points, and had a 48-point win and wins by 2, 3 and 5 points. Going back further, in its past 20 games as a favorite vs. FBS opponents, the Canes are 7-13 ATS with nine outright losses.
Underdogs have covered nine of the last 11 and 12 of the 16 all-time meetings in the series.
The last three meetings have produced 33, 26 and 29 total points.
No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes at Maryland Terrapins
Maryland has won three of its last four games as an underdog, including the 2021 season opener vs. West Virginia as a 2.5-point dog.
Iowa is 13-1 in its last 14 games as a favorite of four points or fewer. The lone loss came last year at Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite.
Syracuse Orange at Florida State Seminoles
Florida State (0-4) is a favorite over 3-1 Syracuse. This is just the second time we've seen a Power 5 matchup in which a team 0-4 or worse has been favored over a team with a winning record. The other time came in 1988, when 0-4 Tennessee was a 3.5-point home favorite over 2-1 Washington State. The Cougars won that game 52-24, and a year later, head coach Dennis Erickson was off to Miami.
No. 7 Cincinnati Bearcats at No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame has won each of its last five games as a home underdog. All five games were one-score games. Going back to 2008, Notre Dame is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog. It's the first time since 2010 Notre Dame is a home dog vs. a team that wasn't a member of a Power 5 conference. The previous time, the Irish beat Utah 28-3 as a 5.5-point home dog.
No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs
After beating Texas A&M last week, an Arkansas win this week would be a historic feat. No team has ever defeated a top-10 team away from home in consecutive weeks as an underdog.
Since 1986, there have been 18 top-10 teams that were at least a 17-point underdog -- only three have won outright -- with the last being 17.5-point underdog Tennessee at Florida in 2001.
Under Sam Pittman, Arkansas is 9-3 ATS with five outright wins as an underdog. That's the most wins by any team since the start of last year. Arkansas has been favored only twice under Pittman -- vs. Rice and Georgia Southern.
Since Jan. 1, 2019, Georgia has faced 11 ranked teams at home or on a neutral field. Nine of the 11 games have gone under, including games with totals of 45, 43.5, 43.5 and 47.
No. 10 Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats
Over the past 20 years, there have been 10 teams that were 4-0 or better and were a home underdog of greater than 7 points vs. a team that was not undefeated. Nine of those 10 covered, with Memphis +10.5 vs. Ole Miss in 2015 being the lone winner. Seven of the nine losses came by seven points or fewer. The last such game came in 2019, when 9-0 Baylor was a 10.5-point underdog to 8-1 Oklahoma. The Bears led most of the way but lost 34-31 to the Sooners.
Boston College Eagles at No. 25 Clemson Tigers
The Eagles have lost 20 straight and 31 of 32 games vs. ranked opponents. BC's last win over a ranked team came in 2014 vs. Steve Sarkisian's USC team.
Beginning with the 2019 national championship game, Clemson is 5-12 ATS and failed to cover each of its last five games. In those five games, Clemson is 2-3 with a win over FCS South Carolina State and a six-point win over Georgia Tech as a 27.5-point favorite.
No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Under Ryan Day, Ohio State is 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS as a road favorite. All eight wins came by at least 13 points.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Northern Illinois Huskies
With a win, Eastern Michigan would start 4-1 for the second time in six years. Prior to 2016, the Eagles were 4-1 or better through five games twice in the previous 28 years. The Eagles' only loss this year is at Wisconsin.
USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes
USC has lost three of its last four Pac-12 games outright as a favorite. The Trojans were a double-digit favorite in two of those losses.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is 1-13 ATS with four outright losses in its last 14 games as a home favorite.
No. 14 Michigan Wolverines at Wisconsin Badgers
Going back to 2016, there have been nine unranked teams that have been favored vs. a top-15 team. Seven of the nine have won the game, including West Virginia two weeks ago vs. Virginia Tech. The only two losses were Virginia Tech last year vs. Miami (by a point) and Missouri in 2018 vs. Kentucky (by a point).
Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers
Dating back to the start of last year, Tennessee is 0-7 as an underdog, losing by an average of 18.7 PPG. Only one game was decided by less than 12 points.
No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State has beaten Oklahoma each of the last two years as a 20-plus-point favorite. K-State beat OU 38-35 last year as a 27.5-point dog and 48-41 in 2019 as a 23.5-point dog.
Kansas State can become the sixth team to defeat the same opponent three straight years as a double-digit underdog and the first to do it while being a 20-point dog in two of the meetings.

TEAM	OPP​	YEARS​	SPREADS​
UAB	Southern Miss	09-11	+10.5, +10, +23
San Jose State	Stanford	98-00	+15.5, +19, +17.5
Cal	Arizona	88-90	+10.5, +11.5, +12
Air Force	Notre Dame	82-84	+11, +13, +10
Kansas	Iowa State	80-82	+10, +13.5, +11

<colgroup><col style="width: 148px"><col width="140"><col width="76"><col width="169"></colgroup><tbody>
</tbody>

​

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Dating back to 2014, Northwestern has been a double-digit underdog 17 times. The Wildcats have gone 13-3-1 ATS in those games with seven outright wins.
Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs
TCU has won and covered six of the last seven vs. Texas, including both times the Horned Frogs were an underdog in that span (2016 and 2020).
In their past 10 meetings, Texas is 5-5 SU and 2-8 ATS the week prior to facing Oklahoma, which includes the meeting in the 2018 Big 12 championship game.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Boise State Broncos
Nevada has covered each of the past seven games in which it has been an underdog. The Wolf Pack have won six of those games outright, including twice as a double-digit dog.
No. 3 Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal
Oregon has failed to cover any of its past six games as a favorite. On the positive side, the Ducks have held the Cardinal to 14 and 6 points over the past two years.
The Ducks have the big win at Ohio State but have most of their difficult games remaining on the road. No Pac-12 team has gone unbeaten in conference play during an unabbreviated season since Chip Kelly's Oregon team that played for the national title in 2010.
Since 2011: Schools from Power 5 conferences that have gone undefeated in regular-season conference play
ACC: 7
Big Ten: 7
SEC: 5
Big 12: 1
Pac-12: 0
Excludes 2020 abbreviated season

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]Week 5 college football best bets: Will Ole Miss be able to corral Alabama?[/h]Top-ranked Alabama is laying 14.5 points for Saturday's home clash with Lane Kiffin and No. 12 Ole Miss, and it will have the highest total (likely 80) the SEC has seen in more than two decades of conference play. Last year, they combined for 111 points in a 63-48 Crimson Tide win, and this year could see a similar shootout.
"Ole Miss can cause most of the same problems for Alabama that Florida's running game did, but Ole Miss will do it at a much faster tempo and is more dangerous throwing the ball. I see the Rebels scoring a minimum of 35 points," analytics guru Brad Edwards told ESPN. Edwards also just authored, "Dynasty By the Numbers," a book which profiles Alabama's dominance during the Nick Saban era.
Both starting quarterbacks, Bryce Young and Matt Corral, are Heisman Trophy betting co-favorites at +180. The Rebels rank first in the nation in most offensive categories, including points and yards per game. Although the Tide are more than two-touchdown favorites, Edwards called this a "toss -up," in terms of who will win. "I think it's a bad matchup for Bama," Edwards said.

---

Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (12-11 overall, 5-2 last week), Bill Connelly (11-9, 2-3), Tyler Fulghum (3-2, 0-0), Joe Fortenbaugh (9-7, 3-0) and David M. Hale (4-6, 2-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 5 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

[h=2]Friday's best bets[/h]

[h=3]No. 5 Iowa Hawkeyes (-3.5, 47.5) at Maryland Terrapins, 8 p.m. ET[/h]Fortenbaugh: If you haven't been paying attention, Maryland is surprisingly nasty this season. The Terrapins enter October 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread with a credible win over West Virginia under their belts thanks, in part, to the stellar quarterback play of Taulia Tagovailoa, who is completing an absurd 75.5% of his passes this season with 10 touchdowns and only one interception. Capital One Field is going to be rocking Friday night for the first big Terrapins football game in God knows how long. That's troubling news for an Iowa program that is severely lacking in explosive plays on offense. Take note that the Hawkeyes have undefeated Penn State on deck, so this matchup does fall into the category of a "look-ahead spot."
Pick: Maryland +3.5
Fulghum: Iowa is an under machine I want to keep riding. Built on the strength of its defense and dominating the line of scrimmage, Kirk Ferentz's bunch is a perfect 4-0 to the under this season. Not to be outdone, Mike Locksley is 9-5 to the under at home since taking over at Maryland.
Pick: Under 47.5

---

[h=2]Saturday's best bets[/h]

[h=3]No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs (-18.5, 48.5), noon ET on ESPN[/h]Fortenbaugh: The Razorbacks were ultra impressive in their 20-10 win over Texas A&M last Saturday, but that's just the tip of a four-week iceberg featuring upcoming dates with Georgia, Ole Miss and Auburn. If Arkansas thought it was tough to score on the Aggies, wait until Saturday's road showdown against a Georgia defense that is currently permitting an average of just 5.7 points per game and 3.1 yards per play. The Bulldogs boast the nastiest defensive unit in the country and, coming off a marquee win over a highly regarded opponent, I expect the Razorbacks to struggle on offense. However, Sam Pittman's crew does lay claim to a very underrated defense that is allowing just 14.5 points per game, so look for this one to start slow before potentially ramping up in the second half.
Pick: First half under 25.5 points

---

[h=3]Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (-3, 65), noon ET on SECN[/h]Fulghum: Both of these middling SEC teams are 2-2 this season, but when you peel back the curtain a bit, you'll see a much stronger profile for Mizzou. The Vols' two losses are a tough one to Pitt at home (41-34) and a blowout loss in The Swamp to Florida (38-14). The Tigers lost at Kentucky by seven and in OT at Boston College. The Wildcats and the Eagles are a combined 8-0 this season. The Tigers should be able to keep the Vols at arm's length in Columbia, Missouri, albeit in a high-scoring game because neither team has a particularly stout defense.
Pick: Missouri -3, over 65

---

[h=3]No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14.5, 79.5), 3:30 p.m. ET[/h]Fortenbaugh: All aboard the Lane Train! This showdown opened as high as Alabama -20 before early money crashed the number all the way down to -14.5. Why? For starters, Ole Miss and Heisman Trophy favorite Matt Corral have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup and currently boast an offense that is averaging a ridiculous 52.6 points per game and 7.5 yards per play (tied for second in NCAA). Further, I think Lane Kiffin is more than up for this challenge. In his first year at Ole Miss in 2020, with a global pandemic shortening both his recruiting and spring practice periods, he still gave Alabama all it could handle in a 63-48 loss. This Rebels team is better, but I don't think we can say the same thing about the Crimson Tide.
Pick: Ole Miss +14.5

---

[h=3]No. 11 Ohio State Buckeyes (-15, 58) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 3:30 p.m. ET[/h]Hale: Last week, we liked Michigan to cover a big number based exclusively on Rutgers' impossibly lucky start to the season -- which included wins over bad teams, aided by a bunch of takeaways and virtually no explosive plays. Well, we had the Rutgers part right. The Scarlet Knights managed just 352 yards and 13 points. We just overestimated Michigan's ability to score.
That won't be an issue for Ohio State. The Buckeyes' offense has been clicking all season. The problem is whether Ohio State can stop anyone -- and Rutgers is here to give Kerry Coombs' unit a confidence boost.
Rutgers is 4-0 ATS this season. This cannot last. Here's to reality setting in Saturday.
Pick: Ohio State -15

---

[h=3]Troy Trojans at South Carolina Gamecocks (-7, 44), 3:30 p.m. ET[/h]Hale: South Carolina has not topped 20 points in three games vs. FBS opponents this year. Troy just lost to ULM. Neither team has much of an offense, and both can play a little defense. Troy hasn't hit the total in its past three, and seven of the past eight Trojans road games have gone under. Meanwhile, South Carolina's past five nonconference games have also gone under. It's hard to see both teams topping 20 in this one.
Pick: Under 44

---

[h=3]Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes (-16.5, 56), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+[/h]Connelly: This one's a little tricky because of Kent State's tempo. If the Golden Flashes find a per-play advantage, they're going to maximize it. And after an utterly brutal nonconference slate that featured road trips to Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland (combined score of opponent 108, KSU 33), they could be looking to take out some frustration.
I'm picking Bowling Green, then, simply because I think the Falcons are pretty good. At least, they're good by recent BGSU standards. They've overachieved by 17.6 points per game against the spread so far and by 14.6 against SP+ projections, which do have Kent winning, but by an average of only 5.3 points. That's a huge, downright confusing amount of cushion between projection and spread.
Pick: Bowling Green +16.5

---

[h=3]Army Black Knights (-7.5, 47) at Ball State Cardinals, 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+[/h]Connelly: The uniqueness of the Army football program -- the slow tempo, the ability to constantly convert third-and-5s (if not on third down, then on fourth), the ability to shrink a game to about 10 possessions per team, the propensity for winning close games (3-1 in one-score games in 2020-21, 10-3 during its brilliant 2017-18 run) -- makes the Black Knights a hard read for SP+. It often sells them short, thinking a team can't do what Army does over a long period of time.
When it actually picks Army against the spread, then, good things tend to happen. It's 5-2 ATS when picking Army in 2020-21, and it's projecting a pretty easy Black Knights win -- average score of 36.5 to 19.6 -- over a Ball State team that has yet to cover this season. Army is overachieving SP+ projections by 8.2 points per game, and BSU is underachieving them by 10.7. Crazy things happen, but BSU covering would indeed be pretty surprising.
Pick: Army -7.5
Fortenbaugh: Same drill as last week, folks. The 4-0 freight train known as the Army Black Knights is currently averaging a monster 344.5 rushing yards per game (second in NCAA) and is set to face a brutal Ball State run defense that is permitting an average of 5.3 yards per carry (107th). If Army is free to do what it wants on offense, the Knights not only will have plenty of success scoring, but they'll also keep their defense rested on the sideline. After all, that triple-option offense is currently averaging 40 minutes and 29 seconds per game in time of possession, which ranks first in the country. Good luck to the Cardinals, who are averaging just 17 points per game and haven't covered a spread all season.
Pick: Army -7.5

---

[h=3]No. 10 Florida Gators (-8, 55) at Kentucky Wildcats, 6 p.m. ET on ESPN[/h]Connelly: I really want to believe in Kentucky. Mark Stoops' building job has been fun to follow through the years, the Wildcats have the run game one expects from them, Wan'Dale Robinson is a welcome new addition to the skill corps, they make more big plays than they allow, their special-teams unit is pretty good ... there seems like a lot to like.
They also beat Chattanooga and South Carolina by only a combined 11 points. Quarterback Will Levis' passer rating has gone from 230.9 to 146.3 to 134.1 to 98.0 over four games. Early returns seem to be diminishing on offense, and now the best offense the Wildcats have faced, by far, comes to town. Florida has quickly earned the trust that Kentucky is going to lose, not only because the Gators nearly beat Alabama, but also because they followed that up with a sturdy performance (and easy win) against a Tennessee team that is better than some think. They're third in offensive SP+, and while Kentucky will make some stops, I don't think it will make nearly enough.
Pick: Florida -8

---

[h=3]Indiana Hoosiers at No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions (-12, 53.5), 7:30 p.m. ET[/h]Hale: We all remember what happened a year ago. Penn State struggled out of the gate in its delayed 2020 opener. Michael Penix delivered one miracle after another, including that stretch for the end zone that proved to be the game winner. Penn State went on to lose its first five games, and Indiana became one of the surprises of the season.
Here's what people don't remember: absolutely everything went Indiana's way in that game. Penn State was playing without several key players after a strange offseason, turned the ball over three times, missed two field goals and turned the ball over on downs at the Indiana 27. Indiana won, but Penn State was the better team.
In fact, here's the most telling stat: Penn State outgained Indiana by 277 yards. In the playoff era, teams that outgain their opposition by 250 to 300 yards are 134-11. Their average margin of victory is 27 points. That Penn State didn't win in a blowout is shocking. That the Nittany Lions lost is incredible.
This year, Indiana is a tick worse than it looked in 2020, and Penn State is better. But that's hardly even the point. All Penn State needs is to play a game that looks more or less like last year's but catch a few breaks instead of missing out on one chance after another, and the Nittany Lions will cover the 12 with ease.
Pick: Penn State -12
Connelly: I'm making the same pick for the same reasons that David listed. It took a lot of (incredibly entertaining) funkiness for IU to win last year, and the Hoosiers have been playing quite a bit worse in 2021, while PSU has been quite a bit better. Penn State isn't a perfect team by any means -- the Nittany Lions don't run the ball nearly as well as expected, and the offense isn't trustworthy on third downs yet -- but they've certainly been two touchdowns better than Indiana thus far.
Pick: Penn State -12

---

[h=3]Air Force Falcons (-10.5, 46.5) at New Mexico Lobos, 7:30 p.m. ET[/h]Connelly: Air Force is basically about 15 minutes away from being unbeaten this year. The Falcons led Utah State by 11 midway through the third quarter but ended up losing 49-45 due to a string of long touchdowns. They've kept three other opponents -- Lafayette, Navy and FAU -- at arm's reach, and there's really no proof that New Mexico is any better than Navy or FAU.
The Lobos are playing pretty good defense, but the offense is not only failing a lot, but failing quickly. The defense has been facing over 14 drives per game, and for a batch of possessions per game, it loses its edge. UTEP scored on back-to-back third-quarter possessions to turn a 13-3 UNM lead into a 20-13 loss. New Mexico State scored on three of four drives as well at one point to keep that rivalry game closer than it should have been.
Air Force is much better than either UTEP or NMSU. SP+ projects an 11.8-point Air Force win, which isn't that far away from the spread, but I just don't see UNM scoring nearly enough to stay within single digits.
Pick: Air Force -10.5

 

[BuzzKill]

Thanks!

Marc Lawrence's Playbook Midweek Alert - /drive.google.com/file/d/1Xt5Y2658FWBsP_MOBoYYQB_nbbAG8XvS/view?usp=sharing

 

[SteponaDuck]

anyone possibly know when INSIDE THE PRESSBOX gets released?

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters
American Turf Club - /drive.google.com/file/d/1RO2YOONWvurUc8SqFTO5j7nKok8YYLHP/view
DRF Sports College Football Tip Sheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1ucpfYucAUtx-865oDlBuHKcZWok6y-Ag/view
DRF Sports NFL Tip Sheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1DtSkCgAMlzNSAxDuvEGqkaAZTH1ltDk_/view
Gold Sheet College Football - /drive.google.com/file/d/1SgHSVoWhhZ1B_RWiF6j0ps0QHVqwnsh3/view
Gold Sheet NFL - /drive.google.com/file/d/1ZKSd9GOBGo8FvXIISXR4uo-RjFzMlyJk/view
Gold Sheet Angles - /drive.google.com/file/d/141vSFsR0sivQrVHQVrE5awBt1VNw69R8/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook - /drive.google.com/file/d/1-kkCA8jI_i_Q_y9OJwNuXT5yGUDW3LFq/edit
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Midweek Alert - /drive.google.com/file/d/1Xt5Y2658FWBsP_MOBoYYQB_nbbAG8XvS/view?usp=sharing
Pointwise - /drive.google.com/file/d/1fMwRXQv5QkHH--BuxhL1BPWITIzw_kON/view
Power Plays - /drive.google.com/file/d/1nazj_NwM2Ab1SbP-Fu5seN6uyAbEnxlV/view
Power Sweep - /drive.google.com/file/d/1mZYHlMw9-yO4PMtvnXgSswCLSL-r5UbI/view
Powers' Picks - /drive.google.com/file/d/1NK97lrayu2H6QxFfsLOw91wyQ_-paOaT/edit
Red Sheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1eWzF_LjNTd4byIvNajrgme4264s3J9fh/view
Sports Reporter - /drive.google.com/file/d/15ubpuf6Ui-DlTDgiYWMKCHXsZEVFCZxV/view
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1YUdfWriTkOZYICev4E8rTdBGS4xsB6ne/edit
VSiN Point Spread Weekly - /drive.google.com/file/d/1E5yO7kMNJlBO1sOC7PaJvaNi5W-qOQTG/view
Winning Points - /drive.google.com/file/d/1p21qoFhuUjN-IsYwI9h4lucSPwtxGOcv/edit

Tracking
This Season's Record Through September 26 - /www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=348&p=13600576&viewfull=1#post13600576

 

[BuzzKill]

Podcasts
Big Bets on Campus - /podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/big-bets-on-campus/id1579379256
Marc Lawrence's September 27 Podcast with Victor King - /soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2021-09-29-marc-lawrence-podcast
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep Podcast- /powersweep.podbean.com/e/week-5-power-sweep-podcast-presented-by-northcoast-sports/
Stanford Steve and the Bear - /www.espn.com/radio/play/_/id/32306387

 

[ninjatactics]

Another big weekend ahead Buzz thanks

 

[RAVENS2014]

Inside the Pressbox NFL http://philsteele.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/IPB-Pro-Wk-4-AllGames.pdf

Inside the Pressbox College http://philsteele.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/21-ITPB-Week-5_ALL-GAMES.pdf

 

[BuzzKill]

Thanks!

Sports Reporter Midweek Update - /drive.google.com/file/d/1J4-zSIbFPwKqmzrRfHUBA3YHiya8x93t/view?usp=sharing

 

[BuzzKill]

Kenny White Sports Insider - /drive.google.com/file/d/1eUgJVjkaDVIiX98itN37Y3TD0ViEJvj2/view

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters
American Turf Club - /drive.google.com/file/d/1RO2YOONWvurUc8SqFTO5j7nKok8YYLHP/view
DRF Sports College Football Tip Sheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1ucpfYucAUtx-865oDlBuHKcZWok6y-Ag/view
DRF Sports NFL Tip Sheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1DtSkCgAMlzNSAxDuvEGqkaAZTH1ltDk_/view
Gold Sheet College Football - /drive.google.com/file/d/1SgHSVoWhhZ1B_RWiF6j0ps0QHVqwnsh3/view
Gold Sheet NFL - /drive.google.com/file/d/1ZKSd9GOBGo8FvXIISXR4uo-RjFzMlyJk/view
Gold Sheet Angles - /drive.google.com/file/d/141vSFsR0sivQrVHQVrE5awBt1VNw69R8/view
Kenny White Sports Insider - /drive.google.com/file/d/1eUgJVjkaDVIiX98itN37Y3TD0ViEJvj2/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook - /drive.google.com/file/d/1-kkCA8jI_i_Q_y9OJwNuXT5yGUDW3LFq/edit
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Midweek Alert - /drive.google.com/file/d/1Xt5Y2658FWBsP_MOBoYYQB_nbbAG8XvS/view?usp=sharing
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College - /drive.google.com/file/d/1sWncUwW-t1vO1eqxYVTqYRSAIPdkxQNc/view?usp=sharing
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL - /drive.google.com/file/d/1STGFMRDCHUMiv4EW_xYS2aItt854s_31/view?usp=sharing
Pointwise - /drive.google.com/file/d/1fMwRXQv5QkHH--BuxhL1BPWITIzw_kON/view
Power Plays - /drive.google.com/file/d/1nazj_NwM2Ab1SbP-Fu5seN6uyAbEnxlV/view
Power Sweep - /drive.google.com/file/d/1mZYHlMw9-yO4PMtvnXgSswCLSL-r5UbI/view
Powers' Picks - /drive.google.com/file/d/1NK97lrayu2H6QxFfsLOw91wyQ_-paOaT/edit
Red Sheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1eWzF_LjNTd4byIvNajrgme4264s3J9fh/view
Sports Reporter - /drive.google.com/file/d/15ubpuf6Ui-DlTDgiYWMKCHXsZEVFCZxV/view
Sports Reporter Midweek Update - /drive.google.com/file/d/1J4-zSIbFPwKqmzrRfHUBA3YHiya8x93t/view?usp=sharing
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1YUdfWriTkOZYICev4E8rTdBGS4xsB6ne/edit
VSiN Point Spread Weekly - /drive.google.com/file/d/1E5yO7kMNJlBO1sOC7PaJvaNi5W-qOQTG/view
Winning Points - /drive.google.com/file/d/1p21qoFhuUjN-IsYwI9h4lucSPwtxGOcv/edit

Tracking
This Season's Record Through September 26 - /www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=348&p=13600576&viewfull=1#post13600576

 

[CFBall2014]

Only tracking the money figures on 4 newsletters this year but here's what I got after this weeks games..

CFB Newsletter Tracker

 

[BuzzKill]

Only tracking the money figures on 4 newsletters this year but here's what I got after this weeks games..

CFB Newsletter Tracker

Thanks CFBall2014 but can you fix the permission setting so anyone with the link can view, now it comes up access denied. TY!

 

[CFBall2014]

Thanks CFBall2014 but can you fix the permission setting so anyone with the link can view, now it comes up access denied. TY!

.

sorry about that, should be good now.

 

[BuzzKill]

.

sorry about that, should be good now.

Thanks CFBall2014!

 

[BuzzKill]

Thank you Mendoza Line!

Newsletter Tracking (through 10/03/2021) from Mendoza Line

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

CKO (we missed it again this week)
11* (0-1-0)
10* (2-3-0)
o/u (0-0-0)

Gridiron Gold Sheet (not posted yet this season)
NCAA Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (0-0-0)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
5* (2-2-1)
4* (4-1-0)
3* (5-0-0)
Upset pick (1-4-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (5-1-0)
Awesome Angle (2-2-1)
Incredible Stat (2-3-0)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL
5* (3-1-0)
4* (3-1-0)
3* (4-0-0)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (5-5-0)
2* (1-4-0)
3* (1-4-0)
4* (7-3-0)
5* (6-4-0)

Pointwise NFL
3* (1-3-0)
4* (5-3-0)
5* (4-3-1)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (2-3-0)
3* (4-6-0)
2* (6-4-0)
Underdog Play of the Week (2-3-0)
Tech Play of the Week (1-2-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (3-1-1)
Situational Play of the Week (1-3-0)
Series Play of the Week (2-1-0)

Power Sweep NFL (0-4-0 overall this week)
4* (1-3-0)
3* (0-4-0)
2* (2-2-0)
4* Pro Angle (0-0-0)
3* o/u play (1-3-0)

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (4-4-0)
2* (8-8-1)
1* (0-0-0)

Powers' Picks NFL (4-0 overall last week, 3-0 so far this week)
4* (0-0-0)
3* (5-0-1)
2* (5-3-0) (Chargers -3.5 pending for Monday night)
1* (0-0-0)

Sports Reporter (NCAA was 4-0 and NFL was 0-2 this week)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (8-9-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (2-6-0)

Red Sheet
90* (0-0-0)
89* (5-5-0)
88* (10-9-1)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (1-3-0)
NCAA 3* (2-2-0)
NFL 4* (1-3-0)
NFL 3* (3-1-0)

Killer Sports, not including teasers (not posted yet this season)
SBB 4.5* (0-0-0)
SBB 4* (0-0-0)
Cajun NCAA (0-0-0)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0-0)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (1-7-0)
2* (4-0-0)
Team Total of the Week (2-2-0)

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (8-5-0)
NCAA 4* (9-12-1)
NFL 4* (2-2-0)

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (9-14-0)
NFL Key Releases (8-5-0)

ITPB
NCAA (8-17-0)
NFL (2-2-0) (this is only the 2nd week we've gotten their NFL section)

Kenny White (1-6 overall this week)
NCAA (8-7-0)
NFL (0-6-0)

 

[DwayneBowe]

Anything for NHL VSIN guide?

 

[MarksMoneymakers]

VSIN NHL BETTING GUIDE
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IMowEpNC1tKw-PyMRn_AHC0GDYYg1tO0/view?usp=sharing