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[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 6 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 2-5. Season: 11-15)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 0-5. Season: 14-13)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

[h=2]The Plays[/h]

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No. 9 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5, 50.5 O/U) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Stanford Steve: I know Michigan fans think I hate them because I picked against them last week, but I don't. It was about the situation and this week is about the situation. Nebraska comes off playing their best game in a blowout win over Northwestern, where they scored 50+ points in a Big Ten game for the 4th time in Scott Frost's tenure in Lincoln. Michigan comes in off an impressive win at Madison and looks to be playing their best ball of the year. But is this the scenario where we see "Good Michigan" in September and October and then ... you know. I just think Nebraska rises to the occasion here and covers the number.
The pick: Nebraska +3.5 (Michigan 20, Nebraska 19)
Fallica: Michigan is good, but the spot is tough. Second straight conference road game against a team whose defense has played very well this year. Nebraska is going to win one of the close games at some point, so why not this week? Remember, too, Scott Frost's first Big Ten game was a 56-10 loss in Ann Arbor, there was the split title in 1997 and the UCF game at the Big House as well. So hold your nose a little bit and hope the Huskers don't have another special teams meltdown.
The pick: Nebraska +3.5

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No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 63.5) at No. 21 Texas Longhorns
Stanford Steve: Well, well, well, what do we have here. Both teams ranked for this rivalry. Gotta love it. The Longhorns come in covering seven of the last nine in this matchup and some say they are currently the best team in the Big 12. I'm sure the Sooners don't need any extra motivation but there is plenty of talk about how they have only won four games by one score, including last week in which they played their first true road game. I think the Sooners learned a lot about themselves in that game and more importantly I think they will be focused on slowing down Texas's Heisman candidate, running back Bijon Robinson, as he comes in red hot (216 rush yards last week vs. TCU). The feeling here is that Oklahoma plays their best game of the year and the offense looks more like a Lincoln Riley Oklahoma offense. I'll lay the points.
The pick: Oklahoma -3.5 (Oklahoma 34, Texas 27)

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No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes (-1.5, 41)
Stanford Steve: How good have the games been when these two teams have played?! Before last year, Penn State had won six in a row in this series with the last three wins being by one score. Now we get both of them ranked in the top four of the AP poll. Penn State's offense has looked a lot "cleaner" under new offensive coordinator Pete Yercich, committing only three turnovers this year and the defense (3rd in nation in scoring defense and 2nd in red zone defense) has been tremendous, thus giving Penn State a +6 in the turnovers this year. Then on the other side, you have the Hawkeyes, who are the epitome of "what you see is what you get." Their defense continues to shine, forcing seven turnovers last week in a game I was on the sidelines for. Probably have a little recency bias, but I'll take the home team and give the points.
The pick: Iowa -1.5 (Iowa 24, Penn State 18)

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Michigan State Spartans (-5.5, 50) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Stanford Steve: This will not be pretty. but the thought here is that Rutgers has enough to hang around and frustrate the Spartans at home in Piscataway. Before last week, Rutgers had one turnover on the season and then last week they gave it away three times. They need to play better than they did last week in getting blown out vs. Ohio State. Michigan State has been great to start the season, the defense has accumulated 18 sacks, including two or more in every game, so there is that. To be honest the line smells pretty bad, too. We'll take the home team and the points.
The pick: Rutgers +5.5 (Michigan State 23, Rutgers 20)

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No. 19 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-6, 57) at Syracuse Orange
Fallica: Syracuse's defense has played very well at home this year, getting after the QB and not allowing big plays through the air. After a close call in Tallahassee last week, seems like a good spot to back the Orange, just as we did two weeks ago when they upset Liberty.
The pick: Syracuse +6.5

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Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina Tar Heels (-17.5, 64.5)
Fallica: After being upset by FSU last year, I expect the UNC offense to put up a big number on the Noles. The fact UNC took care of an overmatched Duke team with ease booths well for the remainder of the season.
The pick: North Carolina -17.5

[h=3]The Bear's money-line parlay[/h]Last Week: -100
Season: -309
$100 returns $124
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -1400
North Carolina Tar Heels -925
Ohio State Buckeyes -1400
Liberty Flames -1300
Marshall Thundering Herd -1400
Georgia Bulldogs -800
Missouri Tigers-1100
Alabama Crimson Tide -1000
UCLA Bruins -750

[h=3]The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line[/h]Last Week: 4-4, +3.1 units
Season: 16-14, +18.5 units
Tulane Green Wave +195
Syracuse Orange +200
Wyoming Cowboys +190
San Jose State Spartans +115
Washington State Cougars +155
West Virginia Mountaineers +130
Nebraska Cornhuskers +145
Arkansas Razorbacks +190

[h=3]Bear bytes[/h]No. 6 Oklahoma Sooner vs. No. 21 Texas Longhorns
This is the 13th straight year Texas is an underdog vs. Oklahoma. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS with three outright wins in the last nine meetings. Oklahoma was 1-2 and unranked in last year's meeting. Spencer Rattler was also benched for Tanner Mordecai during the game.
Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Wisconsin was favored by 2 vs. Michigan and 6.5 vs. Notre Dame. The Badgers lost those games by 21 and 28 points. Beginning with the 2019 Big Ten championship game, Wisconsin is 5-8 in its last 13 games (4-8 in last 12 vs. Power 5 opponents).
Boise State Broncos at No. 10 BYU Cougars
BYU was a five-point favorite over the Broncos last year. They won that game 51-17 in Boise.
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is 14-1 in its past 15 games as a favorite of four points or fewer. The lone loss came last year at Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite. Two of Iowa's five wins this year have come in this role. James Franklin's teams are 0-9 (0-7 during his time at Penn State) in true road games vs. Top 10 teams, with just one game decided by fewer than 11 points.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies
Alabama has won 100 straight vs. unranked teams, and 57 straight vs. unranked SEC teams (last loss was 2007 vs. Mississippi State). Each of Alabama's past 19 games vs. unranked SEC teams has been decided by at least 15 points. The last to play the Tide to 14 points or fewer? Texas A&M in 2017.
No. 9 Michigan Wolverines at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Since Scott Frost took over in 2018, Nebraska has lost an FBS-high 15 one-score games. The Huskers are 5-15 in games decided by eight points or fewer under Frost, including all three losses this year.
Akron Zips at Bowling Green Falcons
This is just the third time in the last 43 games vs. FBS opponents that Bowling Green is favored. BG is the only 5-0 ATS team on the country this year. This is the first time since 2015, when Dino Babers was the head coach, that the Falcons are a 14-point favorite over an FBS team.
UConn Huskies at UMass Minutemen
UMass has been involved in each of the past four games between teams 0-5 or worse. In fact, the Minutemen have won three of the four, including the last one, a 55-20 win over Georgia Southern in 2017.
Maryland Terrapins at No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes
Maryland has failed to cover each of its past six games vs. ranked opponents. The Terps were an underdog in all six and lost by an average of 40.7 PPG.

Giant419 · Oct 7, 2021

[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 6 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 2-5. Season: 11-15)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 0-5. Season: 14-13)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.

[h=2]The Plays[/h]

No. 9 Michigan Wolverines (-3.5, 50.5 O/U) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Stanford Steve: I know Michigan fans think I hate them because I picked against them last week, but I don't. It was about the situation and this week is about the situation. Nebraska comes off playing their best game in a blowout win over Northwestern, where they scored 50+ points in a Big Ten game for the 4th time in Scott Frost's tenure in Lincoln. Michigan comes in off an impressive win at Madison and looks to be playing their best ball of the year. But is this the scenario where we see "Good Michigan" in September and October and then ... you know. I just think Nebraska rises to the occasion here and covers the number.
The pick: Nebraska +3.5 (Michigan 20, Nebraska 19)
Fallica: Michigan is good, but the spot is tough. Second straight conference road game against a team whose defense has played very well this year. Nebraska is going to win one of the close games at some point, so why not this week? Remember, too, Scott Frost's first Big Ten game was a 56-10 loss in Ann Arbor, there was the split title in 1997 and the UCF game at the Big House as well. So hold your nose a little bit and hope the Huskers don't have another special teams meltdown.
The pick: Nebraska +3.5

No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-3.5, 63.5) at No. 21 Texas Longhorns
Stanford Steve: Well, well, well, what do we have here. Both teams ranked for this rivalry. Gotta love it. The Longhorns come in covering seven of the last nine in this matchup and some say they are currently the best team in the Big 12. I'm sure the Sooners don't need any extra motivation but there is plenty of talk about how they have only won four games by one score, including last week in which they played their first true road game. I think the Sooners learned a lot about themselves in that game and more importantly I think they will be focused on slowing down Texas's Heisman candidate, running back Bijon Robinson, as he comes in red hot (216 rush yards last week vs. TCU). The feeling here is that Oklahoma plays their best game of the year and the offense looks more like a Lincoln Riley Oklahoma offense. I'll lay the points.
The pick: Oklahoma -3.5 (Oklahoma 34, Texas 27)

No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes (-1.5, 41)
Stanford Steve: How good have the games been when these two teams have played?! Before last year, Penn State had won six in a row in this series with the last three wins being by one score. Now we get both of them ranked in the top four of the AP poll. Penn State's offense has looked a lot "cleaner" under new offensive coordinator Pete Yercich, committing only three turnovers this year and the defense (3rd in nation in scoring defense and 2nd in red zone defense) has been tremendous, thus giving Penn State a +6 in the turnovers this year. Then on the other side, you have the Hawkeyes, who are the epitome of "what you see is what you get." Their defense continues to shine, forcing seven turnovers last week in a game I was on the sidelines for. Probably have a little recency bias, but I'll take the home team and give the points.
The pick: Iowa -1.5 (Iowa 24, Penn State 18)

Michigan State Spartans (-5.5, 50) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Stanford Steve: This will not be pretty. but the thought here is that Rutgers has enough to hang around and frustrate the Spartans at home in Piscataway. Before last week, Rutgers had one turnover on the season and then last week they gave it away three times. They need to play better than they did last week in getting blown out vs. Ohio State. Michigan State has been great to start the season, the defense has accumulated 18 sacks, including two or more in every game, so there is that. To be honest the line smells pretty bad, too. We'll take the home team and the points.
The pick: Rutgers +5.5 (Michigan State 23, Rutgers 20)

No. 19 Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-6, 57) at Syracuse Orange
Fallica: Syracuse's defense has played very well at home this year, getting after the QB and not allowing big plays through the air. After a close call in Tallahassee last week, seems like a good spot to back the Orange, just as we did two weeks ago when they upset Liberty.
The pick: Syracuse +6.5

Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina Tar Heels (-17.5, 64.5)
Fallica: After being upset by FSU last year, I expect the UNC offense to put up a big number on the Noles. The fact UNC took care of an overmatched Duke team with ease booths well for the remainder of the season.
The pick: North Carolina -17.5

[h=3]The Bear's money-line parlay[/h]Last Week: -100
Season: -309
$100 returns $124
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -1400
North Carolina Tar Heels -925
Ohio State Buckeyes -1400
Liberty Flames -1300
Marshall Thundering Herd -1400
Georgia Bulldogs -800
Missouri Tigers-1100
Alabama Crimson Tide -1000
UCLA Bruins -750

[h=3]The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line[/h]Last Week: 4-4, +3.1 units
Season: 16-14, +18.5 units
Tulane Green Wave +195
Syracuse Orange +200
Wyoming Cowboys +190
San Jose State Spartans +115
Washington State Cougars +155
West Virginia Mountaineers +130
Nebraska Cornhuskers +145
Arkansas Razorbacks +190

[h=3]Bear bytes[/h]No. 6 Oklahoma Sooner vs. No. 21 Texas Longhorns
This is the 13th straight year Texas is an underdog vs. Oklahoma. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS with three outright wins in the last nine meetings. Oklahoma was 1-2 and unranked in last year's meeting. Spencer Rattler was also benched for Tanner Mordecai during the game.
Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini
Wisconsin was favored by 2 vs. Michigan and 6.5 vs. Notre Dame. The Badgers lost those games by 21 and 28 points. Beginning with the 2019 Big Ten championship game, Wisconsin is 5-8 in its last 13 games (4-8 in last 12 vs. Power 5 opponents).
Boise State Broncos at No. 10 BYU Cougars
BYU was a five-point favorite over the Broncos last year. They won that game 51-17 in Boise.
No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 3 Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is 14-1 in its past 15 games as a favorite of four points or fewer. The lone loss came last year at Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite. Two of Iowa's five wins this year have come in this role. James Franklin's teams are 0-9 (0-7 during his time at Penn State) in true road games vs. Top 10 teams, with just one game decided by fewer than 11 points.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies
Alabama has won 100 straight vs. unranked teams, and 57 straight vs. unranked SEC teams (last loss was 2007 vs. Mississippi State). Each of Alabama's past 19 games vs. unranked SEC teams has been decided by at least 15 points. The last to play the Tide to 14 points or fewer? Texas A&M in 2017.
No. 9 Michigan Wolverines at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Since Scott Frost took over in 2018, Nebraska has lost an FBS-high 15 one-score games. The Huskers are 5-15 in games decided by eight points or fewer under Frost, including all three losses this year.
Akron Zips at Bowling Green Falcons
This is just the third time in the last 43 games vs. FBS opponents that Bowling Green is favored. BG is the only 5-0 ATS team on the country this year. This is the first time since 2015, when Dino Babers was the head coach, that the Falcons are a 14-point favorite over an FBS team.
UConn Huskies at UMass Minutemen
UMass has been involved in each of the past four games between teams 0-5 or worse. In fact, the Minutemen have won three of the four, including the last one, a 55-20 win over Georgia Southern in 2017.
Maryland Terrapins at No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes
Maryland has failed to cover each of its past six games vs. ranked opponents. The Terps were an underdog in all six and lost by an average of 40.7 PPG.

Giant419 · Oct 7, 2021

[h=1]Week 6 college football best bets: Undefeated Iowa, Penn State face off[/h]No. 3 Iowa will host No. 4 Penn State as a two-point favorite in a game that has not seen much line movement from the opening line this summer, given both teams are undefeated and have climbed the rankings.
Chris Andrews, South Point casino sportsbook director, posted an advanced line for various marquee games on May 28, and he opened Iowa -1.
"I had Iowa a little underrated. They've also been the beneficiary of a lot of turnovers. I've raised Penn State incrementally, but I have a lot of questions with [Sean] Clifford at quarterback," Andrews said.
Additionally, Andrews does not expect much line movement during the final stretch.
"Penn State is not the same on the road," he said. "I think the public will be on Iowa, but if it gets to -3, the sharps guys will come in and take three."
The Hawkeyes have a knack for delivering in these situations, covering eight of their past nine against AP top-five teams and covering five straight against ranked teams. However, it's rare to see Iowa favored in these high-profile matchups. The Hawkeyes may embrace the underdog role, but they are favored on Saturday.

Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (13-14 overall, 1-3 last week), Bill Connelly (14-11, 3-2), Tyler Fulghum (4-4, 1-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (10-10, 1-3) and David M. Hale (7-6, 3-0) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 6 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

[h=2]Friday's best bets[/h]

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[h=3]Temple Owls at No. 5 Cincinnati Bearcats (-29, 54), 7 p.m. ET on ESPN[/h]Hale: Temple's upset win last week likely says more about Memphis than it does about the Owls, but it was still the program's best passing performance in nearly 20 years, and D'Wan Mathis appears to be hitting his stride at QB. It's a team that has made genuine strides since the opening week blowout against Rutgers.
On the flip side, Cincinnati is coming off a program-defining win at Notre Dame, and I'm betting on a massive hangover. The Notre Dame game was the focus of the Bearcats' season from Day 1 -- the chance to prove themselves on the big stage. This week's stage is effectively a converted janitor's closet. Luke Fickell is one of the best coaches in the country, but if he has his team motivated enough to win by 29 the week after beating the Irish, well, we might as well hand him the coach of the year trophy now.
Pick: Temple +29

[h=2]Saturday's best bets[/h]

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[h=3]No. 11 Michigan State Spartans (-5, 50) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights, noon ET[/h]Fortenbaugh: I think too many people still view Michigan State as the defensive-minded, explosion-lacking football team of the Mark Dantonio era, but those days are long gone. Under second-year boss Mel Tucker, Sparty has been easy on the eyes this season. Michigan State contests are averaging 58.8 points per game in 2021 and the Spartans themselves are averaging a lofty 36.8 points per matchup (17th in NCAA). I believe this total is somewhat suppressed based on those aforementioned points, as well as the fact that Rutgers has hung a grand total of just 26 points over the last two weeks. But take note of the opposition, as the Scarlet Knights ran into Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks. There's a reason why this total opened 47.5 and was quickly bet up to 50.
Pick: Over 50

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[h=3]Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 20 Florida Gators (-38, 60), noon ET[/h]Fulghum: The Gators return to The Swamp seething from a tough loss to Kentucky and looking for some easy prey to demolish. Well, here comes Vandy. The Commodores are 1-4 ATS this season and the lone SEC game they played this season was a 62-0 shellacking at the hands of Georgia. I expect the Gators to run it up on a far weaker opponent to get the bad taste of last week's game out of their mouth.
Pick: Florida -38

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[h=3]South Carolina Gamecocks at Tennessee Volunteers (-10.5, 56.5), noon ET on ESPN2[/h]Connelly: This could absolutely be an overreaction to Tennessee's overwhelming win at Missouri last week, and it could be a walk right into the "South Carolina covers and the under wins easily" trap that the Gamecocks seem good at setting this season. But SP+ has liked the Vols a decent amount all season and, despite not taking tempo into account, projects a 15-point Tennessee win.
Plus, I like the matchups here; South Carolina's pass defense is strong, but the motor for the Vols' offensive success (when said offensive success occurs) is a strong run game, and the Gamecock defense is merely average up front. Combine that with the fact that S.C. might not be able to run the ball well at all, and you've got a recipe for a solid two-TD win.
Pick: Tennessee -10.5
Fortenbaugh: Any total less than 60 points is going to catch my attention when it comes to Tennessee because the Volunteers are built for overs. Josh Heupel's squad currently ranks 15th in the country in scoring (37.0 PPG), 27th in yards per play (6.3) and 16th in plays per game (78). Translation: the Vols like to move fast and score in bunches. So far this season, South Carolina has beaten the teams they were expected to beat and lost to the teams they were expected to lose to. Against this Tennessee defense, the Gamecocks should be able to contribute their share of the scoring necessary to put this game over.
Pick: Over 56

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[h=3]Boise State Broncos at No. 10 BYU Cougars (-5, 56.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC[/h]Fortenbaugh: Two reasons for this wager: Boise State is overvalued and BYU is undervalued. Not exactly neurosurgery, is it? Let's start with the Broncos, who have been struggling big time on offense ever since head coach Bryan Harsin departed for Auburn. Boise State ranks 80th in the country in yards per play (5.2) and an astounding 123rd in yards per rushing attempt (2.4). That's going to be problematic against a BYU freight train that has an extra day to get ready for this game, not to mention marquee wins over Utah and Arizona State so far this season. Be advised that the Cougars are 10-4 ATS over their last 14 games against Mountain West opposition and 5-1 ATS in their last six showdowns with Boise State.
Pick: BYU -5

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[h=3]Wisconsin Badgers (-10, 42.5) at Illinois Fighting Illini, 3:30 p.m. ET[/h]Hale: This is a line set by narrative over substance, and I love lines like that. Think first of the Wisconsin offense. It's awful, right? Indeed, the Badgers rank 117th nationally in scoring offense. But dig deeper. Three of the four games Wisconsin has played were against top-15 teams. Despite the lack of scoring, the underlying metrics are above average, too -- 39th in offensive SP+, for example.
Meanwhile, Illinois has held three straight opponents to 20 points or less, which might seem impressive enough. But for the season, the Illini rank 85th in defensive efficiency and 100th in defensive SP+. Despite the 1-3 record, FPI still has Wisconsin as the No. 39 team in the country, while Illinois is 80th. Add in Wisconsin's 16-6 mark against the spread as a road favorite since 2015, and we've got a recipe for an easy win.
Pick: Wisconsin -10
Connelly: OK, whew, Hale gave me cover on this one. SP+'s undying love of Wisconsin has made me uncomfortable -- it loves the Badgers' defense so much that it's evidently willing to overlook a bunch of offensive crimes they have committed of late -- but ... come on. Even if you don't believe the SP+ projection of Wisconsin 34-14, this line should still be in the UW -13 or UW -14 range, right? Because the UW defense is the only unit guaranteed to show up?
Pick: Wisconsin -10

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[h=3]Ball State Cardinals at Western Michigan Broncos (-11, 57.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU[/h]Connelly: I'm doubling down on Ball State doubt! The Cardinals confounded one of my best bets last week by not only beating Army but doing so strangely easily. It was BSU's first genuinely strong performance of the season and gave me a moment's pause with this one. But WMU has been one of the more consistently strong performers in the country so far, beating the spread 75% of the time and overachieving both the spread and SP+ projections by about a touchdown per game. (And for bonus points, they're doing this despite maybe the worst special teams unit in the country!)
SP+ projects a 14.4-point advantage for WMU -- not a dramatic departure from the spread, but I like the matchup here as well. The Broncos' pass defense is excellent and should combat BSU's quick-passing game well. WMU isn't great against the run, but BSU can't run. And while BSU's defense has shown well in two straight games, this WMU attack stresses you greatly. WMU by two TDs sounds right to me.
Pick: WMU -11

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[h=3]East Carolina Pirates at UCF Knights (-10, 67.5), 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+[/h]Connelly: This spread feels like an overreaction in both directions. And honestly, said overreaction has some basis. ECU is coming off one of its best performances in quite a while, a 52-29 home trouncing of Tulane. UCF is coming off of one of its worst performances in a long while, a 34-30 loss to a previously winless Navy. These are both stark results. But here's a reminder that ECU had barely beaten Charleston Southern the week before Tulane came to town.
Now, picking a team with a backup quarterback as a best bet is risky. With Dillon Gabriel out, Mikey Keene made his first start, and UCF suffered a major upset. Bad, right? But Keene was perfectly fine -- 16-for-26, 187 yards, two touchdowns and a pick -- and the major culprit for the loss was a UCF defense that couldn't get Navy off the field. SP+ projects a 16.5-point UCF win, and even if you adjust three to four points for Dillon Gabriel's absence, that still offers a decent cushion with a 10-point spread.
Pick: UCF -10

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[h=3]Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons (-6, 47), 7 p.m. ET[/h]Hale: Air Force has been one of my favorite betting teams this year. The Falcons are among the best Group of 5 offenses, ranking 18th nationally in EPA per snap. Meanwhile, the defense has been exceptional at shutting down big plays and boasts a masterful 65.6% successful play rate, ninth best nationally. Their four wins this season have all come by at least 20, and only a late collapse against Utah State (a game they led by 11 in the third quarter) has blemished the record.
Meanwhile, Wyoming gets the benefit of the doubt for its 4-0 record, but three of those wins have come by a TD or less, including a three-point win vs. FCS Montana State and a two-point victory against (ugh) UConn. I'm riding with Air Force most weeks, and this one is a particularly appealing spread I got it at -4.5 earlier in the week).
Pick: Air Force -4.5

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[h=3]No. 14 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1, 47) at Virginia Tech Hokies, 7:30 p.m. ET[/h]Fortenbaugh: This is a situational play for me. The Hokies are off a bye and have had two weeks to prepare for this showdown, which will take place under the lights at a packed and raucous Lane Stadium. For Notre Dame, this is yet another marquee, high-profile game ... only this time, it's coming off a loss with dreams of an undefeated campaign dashed by the Cincinnati Bearcats last Saturday. Take note that the Hokies are 5-1 ATS over their last six games as a home underdog, while Notre Dame has covered the number in just two of five contests this season.
Pick: Virginia Tech +1
Fulghum: The Hokies have been an under machine all season. They're 4-0 to the under and their games are coming under that total by an average of 15.9 PPG. If Notre Dame had a more dynamic offense, I wouldn't feel quite as comfortable here, but Tech is a live home 'dog, and usually teams under that circumstance do so in a tight, low-scoring game where the raucous home crowd makes it difficult for the opposing offense to operate at maximum efficiency.
Pick: Under 47

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[h=3]New Mexico State Aggies at Nevada Wolf Pack (-31, 62.5), 10:30 p.m. ET[/h]Connelly: Two reasons for picking this one:
1. NMSU has actually been a smidge better (less awful?) than expected this year. The Aggies have covered in four of six games (tied for 30th in FBS) and by an average of 4.6 points (33rd). SP+ thought they would be truly horrendous this year, and they've overachieved those projections by an average of 8.2 points. It's adjusted for their semi-competence and only projects them to lose by 27.4 to Nevada.
2. Part of the reason the line is this high is that Nevada scored a big 41-31 road win over Boise State last week. But it was a game defined by a dramatic Nevada field position advantage (+18 yards per drive) and late Boise turnovers (Nevada was +3). Those aren't the most sustainable factors in the world. Nevada's obviously the better team here, but 31 points is a bit much.
Pick: NMSU +31