Newsletters

JPW · Sep 10, 2021

You’re welcome, sir. I’ve been downloading sheets from this thread for awhile now so any way that I can contribute, I’m more than happy to help. I did buy this newsletter on my own & I will set a reminder to post it every week. I honestly don’t mind helping but I will let you folks decide what to do….either way, just happy that I could contribute something. Thanks!

BuzzKill · Sep 10, 2021

Thanks JPW!

BuzzKill · Sep 10, 2021

Newsletters

Podcast
Marc Lawrence's September 8 Podcast with Victor King - /soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2021-09-08-marc-lawrence-podcast

Tracking
This Season's Record Through September 6 - /www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=343&p=13579868&viewfull=1#post13579868

BuzzKill · Sep 10, 2021

Joe Gavazzi's Pointspread Prognosis Week #2

Joe Gavazzi’s CFB & NFL
POINTSPREAD PROGNOSIS
2021 Week #2 Edition

JOE GAVAZZI’S WEEKLY CFB SELECTIONS

Saturday, Sept 11th

Joe Gavazzi’s DOG of the DAY! (1-0)

Rice (+8) 6:30 PM ET

Last week’s DOD barked home a winner (or do I mean “barfed”, outrushed 400-92) with the Florida Atlantic Owls. This runs the record to a PSP leading 11-4 ATS L1+Y. THESE Owls however, were letting us down as a 3% PHP selection. Leading 17-7 in the 3rd vs. Arkansas, they gave up 31 consecutive points to fail by 1 point to the number. Losing 3 turnovers was a big key. An overrated Houston team, led by HC Holgorsen, who has a 54-68 ATS lifetime mark, was badly outplayed by Texas Tech being outgained 376-251 in a 21-38 to TTRR. Much like the Owls, committing 4 turnovers was their undoing. Much more is always expected of a Holgorsen coached team who annually fails to live up to its Preseason hype. At the other end of the spectrum is a Rice team who has been slowly building to a crescendo under HC Bloomgren, who has increased their win percentage in all 3 seasons he was at the helm. With only 4 miles between these schools, we will take the generous points with Rice who could begin to continually outperform linemaker expectations now that Power 5 Nebraska transfer, QB McCaffrey, a dual threat, is at the helm. This upset is no surprise to this bureau.

Joe Gavazzi’s STEAMROLLER of the Week (0-1)

SMU (-22-) 7:00 PM ET

It was just 3 short years ago, at the close of the 2018 Season, that now 6th year North Texas HC Littrell recorded consecutive 9 win seasons and was rumored to be headed to Power 5 pastures. In the last two years however, the bottom has fallen out with a combined record of 8-14 SU, 5-15 ATS. The reason for last year’s debacle was a defense that got “200 Clubbed” for 43/508. Why would 10 returning starters on that side of the ball strike fear into the hearts of any opposing offense? It certainly did not last week when NW State, a 44-14 loser to the Mean Green, committed 4 turnovers BUT STILL PUT UP 418 YARDS. Only one thing we can expect from an SMU attack that went for 56/501 in their 47 point opening victory against out-manned ABC. Not satisfied with taking a back seat to QB Rattler at Oklahoma, Sooner transfer QB Mordecai threw for 317 PY and 7 TDP. He will certainly be licking his chops all week at the site of this Mean Green defense. Wire-to-wire Steamroller for SMU!

Joe Gavazzi’s THE HUNTER GETS CAPTURED BY THE GAME (1-0)

Ball State (+23) 3:30 PM ET

After the adoring fans of Happy Valley have celebrated the Wisconsin upset, 16-10 as +5, all week, how do the Penn State players, with the realization they host Auburn on this field next week, ever get excited about hosting MAC rep Ball State this Saturday. That was exactly the situation that faced these visiting Cardinals last week in their “warm-up game” hosting Western Illinois. Just one short year ago, then 5th year HC Neu, was on the hottest of seats after an opening day loss at Miami (OH). The Cards then ripped off 7 straight victories, the last 3 as underdog, including 38-28 (as +12) vs. Buffalo to win the MAC Title, and 34-13 as +8 vs. then undefeated San Jose to win their Bowl game. With 20 starters returning, and a 34/448 offense led by QB Plitt, THIS IS THE GAME to which Ball State has been pointing! At worst, the back door swings wide open for this explosive Ball State offense as Penn State “gets captured by their game last week at Wisconsin”!

Joe Gavazzi’s FAUX or FO’ REAL Game of the Week (0-1)

Army (-6-) 11:30 AM ET

In my Preseason sketch of Western Kentucky, I advised the upcoming offensive outburst by last year’s lethargic Hilltopper team. The reason: Houston Baptist transfer QB Zappe who brought along his own OC, Kittley, and a trio of his best receivers. “Zap”, just like that! The Hilltoppers, who averaged 19 PPG LY, and did not exceed 25 PPG since 2016, exploded for a 59-21 victory vs. T-Mart when Zappe led an aerial assault of 478 PY with 7 TDP. It says in this analysis however, that Zap’s performance against T-Mart will not be FO’ REAL once he gets to the banks of the Hudson. There he will meet an Army defense who allowed just 15/276 LY, best in the country. With 8 starters returning to that side of the ball, they slowed a powerful Georgia State offense allowing them just 10/177 including 129 PY. Army ground game was solid, if not spectacular, with 258 RY leading to a 43-10 Cadets victory. Zap will find out today that you can’t “do what?”, SCORE!, “ without the what?”, the BALL! And that will be the Hilltoppers downfall as they allowed 201/6.4 last week to T-Mart. Look for the Cadets to control the ball and the clock in grounding out a comfortable double digit victory.

Joe Gavazzi’s THIS B. U. D. (BIG UGLY DOG) is for you! (0-1)

Eastern Michigan (+26) 7:00 PM ET

Could the Badgers be ready to smack someone after they outrushed Penn State, 174-50, but allowed a -3 Net TO margin that devolved into a 10-16 loss? OR, DO THEY LOOK RIGHT PAST this “little brother” with attention focused on their next two opponents, Notre Dame and Michigan. Even in motoring for 174 RY vs. Penn State, the ground game more resembled the 165/3.9 of LY, rather than their previous outputs of at least 223/5.0 each of the previous 3 years. Plenty of kinks to work out for the offense behind QB Mertz. Of equal importance is the job done by 8th year E. Mich HC Creighton. It was the 5th losing season in 7 years for the Eagles in 2020, 2-4 SU. But that is not how HC Creighton has made his mark. Consider that, in the last 5 seasons, his Eagles are now 22-3 ATS as road or neutral dog. Eagles may not be competitive in this game, but history says they have an outstanding chance to come in under the number against a Wisconsin team who, under 7th year HC Chryst, is just 14-20 ATS as home favorite.

Joe Gavazzi’s WTF (Wrong Team Favored) Game of the Week (1-0)

Navy (+6) 3:30 PM ET

Maybe this bureau is the only one who feels Navy should be favored in this game. After all, their 49-7 embarrassment on this field at the hands of Marshall last week was the 6th consecutive defeat for the Middies. Consider this however: how would you like to have an underdog who controlled the ball for 41/60 minutes, had a positive Net TO margin, and outrushed the opposition 337-101? You’d be going to the betting window with both fists full of money. That was exactly the case last week when the Middies trailed wire-to-wire against a Marshall team who “passed them silly” for 363 PY. Enter Air Force who, based on the fact they averaged 84 PYPG LY, and threw for just 50 PY last week in their 35-14 rout of Lafayette, do not figure to present the same challenge through the airways. There was certainly nothing amiss with the Middie option last week as they ran 77 times for 337 RY while holding the Hilltoppers to 101/3.4. Last year’s 40-7 loss at Air Force was typical of this series, in the regard that THE HOME TEAM HAS NOW WON 8 STRAIGHT GAMES IN THIS MATCHUP WITH THE UNDERDOG GETTING THE ALPO EACH OF THE LAST 4. Off an embarrassing loss and with blowout revenge, that’s why Navy is the WTF in this week’s PSP.

Joe Gavazzi’s PERCEPTION/REALITY Game of the Week (0-1)

Mid Tennessee State (+20) 2:00 PM ET

Easy PERCEPTION here is that VA Tech has been reborn from their Friday Night Lights upset of North Carolina and will cruise to the winning side of the ledger after missing their first Bowl game last year since they fought with swords. The REALITY is that win was based more on emotion than statistics as they were outrushed and outpassed by the Heels. With regional rival West Virginia dead ahead, this is what is known as a “sandwich” game against a CUSA invader from the south. The perception also may be that this will be, yet another, less than mediocre contingent of Blue Raiders in the mold of teams who went 7-14 SU L2Y. Their Week #1 win, 50-15, albeit against Monmouth, could well be a harbinger. Enter Power 5 transfer QB Hockman (from Florida State and NC State), who will line up behind 4 OL starters and 7/8 top WRs. A defense that returns intact is a year older and wiser. If not competitive from jump, the back door could well swing wide open for the Raiders when the Hokie thoughts drift to their game at Morgantown next week.

JOE GAVAZZI’S WEEKLY NFL SELECTIONS

Sunday, Sept 12th

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL LONE RANGER Game of the Week

New Orleans (+4) 4:25 PM ET

Easiest contrary play on the board to pick! This game originally opened at “New Orleans (-3)”. Then came the announcement that QB Winston would be the Game #1 starter. All the public remembers is his 30 INT season of 2019. Under the tuteledge of Saints HC Payton, and with a year as understudy to now retired QB Brees, Winston has become a signal caller with a different mindset. That announcement was followed by Hurricane Ida which displaced the Saints to Dallas and rescheduled this game, two weeks hence to Jacksonville. Along with all the good vibes that Green Bay’s re-signed QB Rodgers has created by saying “all the right things” in his media interviews, it is no surprise that, by kickoff, over 80% of the public will be lining up on the Packers. Its games like this where you, and I, and the Lone Ranger make our NFL money.

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL CRUSHER of the Week

Buffalo (-6-) 1:00 PM ET

Some expect a resilient Pittsburgh team, who started 11-0 SU last year, but finished 1-5 SU LY, to bounce back big. Those people are relying on the adage that “defense wins football games”. That however, will be all the Steelers can take to the bank this season. Their dismal decline was characterized by their lack of overland success as the season wore on. In the first 5 games of the season, they outrushed their foes by an average of 137-66 YPG. The defense was staunch enough that in their 11-0 SU start, they were outscoring the opposition 29-17. Beginning with the final victory in that opening streak however, they were outrushed 129-68 by Baltimore. In the last 6 games, they never ran for more than 86 yards while allowing the opposition to rush for 127 or more in the final four games of the season. An offense that averaged 29 PPG in their undefeated start, allowed 29 PPG in the 1-5 SU finish. In attempting to rectify the situation, the Steelers brain trust is ENLISTING AN ALL NEW OL. That’s bad news for a 39 year old, immobile signal caller such as Big Ben. Among that late season meltdown was a game on this field vs. a 9-3 SU Buffalo team who was enroute to an 11-2 SU finish to their season. The 26-15 final could have been worse as the Bills had overland edges of 104-47 and a total yardage edge of 230-177. Steelers’ HC Tomlin has not had a losing season in 14 years. This could be the beginning of the end of that streak against a Bills team with by far the superior offense and a solid defense which, in the last two seasons combined, has allowed just 20/331.

Joe Gavazzi’s NFL OVER/UNDER Game of the Week

UNDER (48) Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET

Shortly after mid-season of 2020, our NFL money machine, Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer, changed his stripes. At that time, Zimmer had a 68-39 ATS NFL record. It was, in no small part, attributable to a defense, that in the previous 3 seasons, had allowed just 19 PPG leading the Vikes to a 3 year mark of 33-18 SU. Then the defense disappeared. In the final 7 games, the Vikings allowed 33.6 PPG and Zimmer never covered another spread. A lack-luster August leaves the fate of the Vikings as a major question mark in the mind of their bettors. Such is also the case with the Bengals who were looking for respectability before an ACL injury to QB Burrow derailed their offensive hopes. The return of Burrow may renew hope in the Queen Town. But the truth is that, under 3rd year HC Taylor, this team has averaged just 18/321 per game. With the Vikings now placing an emphasis on defense and a return to the ground game, I can see this game slogging to a halt resulting in UNDER 48 providing a winning ticket.

COLLEGE FB GUEST HANDICAPPERS

Mark Harlan… East Coast Insider (0-0-1)

Rutgers (-2) 2:00 PM ET

Selection by Mark Harlan; commentary by Joe Gavazzi

Harlan opened with a “push” on these pages last week with “UCF -5”. He and his group won the selection laying 3.5 and 4 in a game where the line closed at -6.5. Hope you got the push as well. He clearly had the right side as QB Gabriel threw a 100 yard pick 6 (a 14 point swing) and saw his Knights’ team fall behind 21-0. They rebounded to “200 Club” the Broncos 573-283 including 255-20 overland. Harlan feels this selection on the SCARLET Knights will be even more convincing. Each of these teams had convincing victories last week which, because of a positive TO difference, were more dominant on the scoreboard than in the stat column. Syracuse won 29-9 against an OU team clearly struggling with the recent retirement of long time HC Solich. Rutgers, a 3% PHP winner, made it look easy on the scoreboard with a 61-14 final. The true story was a +5 Net TO margin which keyed the 47 point victory despite a 365-261 yardage edge. Harlan however, believes the Orange victory will prove to be an outlier for a team who was 1-10 SU last season. Conversely, in the 2nd year under Schiano, he believes this veteran Rutgers team, with 21 returning starters, could well reach a Bowl game this season.

Touchdown Tony… CFB ACC Insider (1-0)

Illinois (+10) 11:00 AM ET

Virginia, in the middle of the pack in both offense and defense in the ACC was “okay” in 2020. Offense and defense should be somewhat improved in 2021 because both lines are decent. Illinois was about awful in the Big 10 last year. They should be improved in all aspects of the game in 2021. Even so, they should have another tough season in 2021. Needing upsets to get to a bowl game in 2021, don’t look for them to get one in Charlottesville on Saturday. Virginia will narrowly win this in a “must miss” game.

Editor’s Note: Double T got off to an incredible start with his inside information that North Carolina “was reading too many press clippings and looking right past a Hokie team on whom they put up a “56” last season. “Enter Sandman” with the cameras panning to Tar Heels HC Brown who had that “deer caught in the headlights” look the entire game. Primetime football has always been a big deal in Blacksburg with Orange filling the stands. The emotional victory was never in doubt as they picked off over-hyped QB Howell 3 times. This week, Tony focuses on a similar situation. Though UVA, under HC Mendenhall, is 13-7 ATS vs. non-con foes, this is a horrible spot for his Cavs. A common theme in sports is “you can’t stay hungry if you are fat”. That will certainly be the case with Virginia this week who cruised to a 43-0 shutout win vs. outmanned W&M and is NOW LOOKING DEAD AHEAD AT THEIR ACC SLATE beginning with North Carolina next week. Tony sees emotions on the opposite end of the Illini whose rollercoaster season could well continue with Bielema’s boys due for the bounce back after they fell victim to UTSA (“Hunter” winner on these pages), who themselves were in letdown mode after upsetting Nebraska in Week #1A. THIS IS THE WEEK to be back on the Illini.

Dave Parsoni … Bon Vivant and World Traveler (1-0)

Selection by Dave Parsoni; commentary by Joe Gavazzi

Washington (+7) 8:00 PM ET

Congrats to DP for his Week #1 upset winner with Penn State. This week he turns his attention to yet another quality underdog team. Last week, I reported that Parsoni had yet to return to the US from his visit to Australia. I assumed, at the time, that it was COVID related. When I learned it was actually wine related, I assumed he was seeking to unearth a hidden region of the continent for Pinor Noit grapes. In a shocking turn of events, I have since learned that Parsoni became intrigued with Australian Syrah (Shiraz), to the extent that he has invested millions in a vineyard in Hunter Valley, the oldest Syrah region on the continent. The promise of annual shipments to this bureau assures his place on these pages. This week, our BIG 10 insider, who continues to assure us the time of HC Harbaugh is limited, is eager to fade the Wolverines this week. He was hardly impressed with the 47 point output against the weak defense of Western Michigan. He also loves the value created in Washington’s home loss to Montana IN WHICH THEY OUTGAINED THE GRIZZLIES 291-232 BUT HAD A -3 NET TO MARGIN. The Huskies were clearly looking forward to this trip to Ann Arbor, the only challenging game on their slate until mid-October. Should Michigan be resting on their laurels following last week’s easy win, they will be clearly stunned by this far superior Husky defense.

NFL GUEST HANDICAPPERS

Sunday, Sept 12th

Young Blood Sports… Keepin’ it Fresh

Arizona Cardinals (+134) 4:00 PM ET

Ladies and gentlemen, do you feel it? That crisp cool air starting to roll across the ridges? The chilly nights, the morning fog, maybe even the classic feel of your favorite sweatshirt? Some call it a change of seasons. I call it the beginning of a new era. That’s right, football is back and YBS is here to make things right in the world! As I mentioned before, there will be NFL moneyline plays released each week for the next 18 weekends. As the weather cools, these selections are going to be hotter than ever. I will do my best to make you money every week. I’ve rolled my NHL skill set, and attitude, into an NFL mindset which will result in consistent winning selections. With all that being mentioned, good things take time! It’s still early and there’s a lot to be uncovered. Selections will grow wider as the weeks roll on, but for now, I will leave you with just 1 lock for the week.

Does Tennessee look good at first glance? Absolutely! Did I boost my Fantasy Football chances by selecting RB Derrick Henry as my first choice? Who wouldn’t! But with the absolute firepower of Murray at QB and Hopkins as a comfy and clear WR choice, this one looks like a no brainer. Thanks to all for following. And as always “tail me or fade me, either way I don’t give a shit” See y’all at the bank!

BuzzKill · Sep 10, 2021

Newsletters

Podcast
Marc Lawrence's September 8 Podcast with Victor King - /soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2021-09-08-marc-lawrence-podcast

Tracking
This Season's Record Through September 6 - /www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=343&p=13579868&viewfull=1#post13579868

exploited17 · Sep 10, 2021

No Wiseguy contest this year again?

BuzzKill · Sep 10, 2021

exploited17 said:
No Wiseguy contest this year again?

Nope

exploited17 · Sep 10, 2021

Damn Sucks. Was one of the best.
Oh well
GL this year, Buzz

Mrpotter · Sep 11, 2021

Pointwise?
Redsheet?
thx

BuzzKill · Sep 11, 2021

Mrpotter said:
Pointwise?
Redsheet?
thx

XENO · Sep 11, 2021

Mark law playbook?

BuzzKill · Sep 11, 2021

XENO said:
Mark law playbook?

XENO · Sep 11, 2021

Than you so much buzz the best

Mrpotter · Sep 11, 2021

Buzz Kill said:
Pointwise - /drive.google.com/file/d/1Ks8Q2-9m8ribPHT37smataE9zyVicIOX/view
Red Sheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1gBDjMIvUoXNIs2vSVgJWIOiSDATEceOc/view

Why can I see these links when I hit quote but not in the original post? It won’t let me click on the links in the quote. Am I doing something wrong? Thanks for getting these. This is pointwise and red sheet.

Jaybird907 · Sep 11, 2021

Buzz Kill said:
Pointwise - /drive.google.com/file/d/1Ks8Q2-9m8ribPHT37smataE9zyVicIOX/view
Red Sheet - /drive.google.com/file/d/1gBDjMIvUoXNIs2vSVgJWIOiSDATEceOc/view

???

Jaybird907 · Sep 11, 2021

Mrpotter said:
Pointwise?
Redsheet?
thx

??

BuzzKill · Sep 11, 2021

Mrpotter said:
Why can I see these links when I hit quote but not in the original post? It won’t let me click on the links in the quote. Am I doing something wrong? Thanks for getting these. This is pointwise and red sheet.

Are you using a phone? I tried the links on my laptop and desktop and they are working.

Mrpotter · Sep 11, 2021

Buzz Kill said:
Are you using a phone? I tried the links on my laptop and desktop and they are working.

I am on my iPad. I see the links to other newsletters just not pointwise, red sheet, and mark law playbook. Strange

BuzzKill · Sep 11, 2021

Mrpotter said:
I am on my iPad. I see the links to other newsletters just not pointwise, red sheet, and mark law playbook. Strange

That is strange. This program does strange stuff when I list the newspapers, I end up having to do weird stuff to get them list right. I always check them to see if they work and use google drive so as not to get any bad or infected links.

Mrpotter · Sep 11, 2021

Buzz Kill said:
That is strange. This program does strange stuff when I list the newspapers, I end up having to do weird stuff to get them list right. I always check them to see if they work and use google drive so as not to get any bad or infected links.

Yep. even in post 8605 I see all those links but there are just two - marks where pointwise and the red sheet should be

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