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[danstiller]

GRIDIRON GOLD SHEET

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters
Gaming Today December 9-15 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LtvRBneVN9yElrb4euErAUVAyQ4n9N57/view?usp=sharing
Gridiron Gold Sheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/15XehfwE5q-7ofjK9gALPHnWWOgJ5_K5q/view?usp=sharing
Northcoast Sports Power Plays - https://drive.google.com/file/d/124m...tGPlLuBoY/view
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nXJ...iAl4lo-bV/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1U4T...ew?usp=sharing
Pointwise - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1v8p...CZKEG9foG/view
Sports Reporter - https://drive.google.com/file/d/15Lhld0DZFUjYGufUAwbA4cakT_muley9/view
VSiN Point Spread Weekly - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zcacPF1iO-INdC1pISvPkAuOhDy1vGk9/view
VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide Part 1 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y3t...H2l_wx_Pg/view
VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide Part 2 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FEG...SWgPciomp/view
Winning Points - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1II9...C4Q0kkR-l/view

Podcasts
Marc Lawrence's December 9 Podcast with Victor King - https://soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2020-12-09-marc-lawrenceagainst-the-spread
The Action Network Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...t/id1004530793

Tracking
This Season's Record Through December 7 - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=327&p=13349064&viewfull=1#post13349064

 

[BuzzKill]

Powers' Picks - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MJ88Dou-acukHGUaQBFoMI8VQzm8alVR/view

 

[MarksMoneymakers]

VSIN POINTSPREAD WEEKLY
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eOu...ew?usp=sharing

 

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Thanks as always for your hard work and dedication here Buzzlestein! :aktion033 dbanana0-9 Soumi

 

[microphone]

Playbook Midweek Alert

https://www.playbook.com//2020MW12.pdf

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]Week 14 college football best bets: Tide should roll vs. struggling LSU[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (0-2 last week, 29-22 overall), Bill Connelly (1-1, 15-17), Preston Johnson (0-3, 22-17), David M. Hale (1-1, 15-17) and Seth Walder (1-0, 5-7) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 14 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

[h=3]No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-7, 48.5) at Auburn Tigers, Noon ET (on ESPN)[/h]Walder: I think there's a little inflation here due to the Aggies' selection committee ranking. A big factor in the committee's ranking system is résumé. A win is a win in the standings, but how that win happened is critical for predicting future performance. A&M's three-point win over Florida earned it more clout in terms of strength of record than it did in FPI, and its five-point win over Vanderbilt is considered a negative by FPI. The Aggies have been the 13th-most efficient team this season, after accounting for opponent strength and garbage time, but FPI gives them a bit more credit because of preseason expectations and ranks them ninth.
Meanwhile, that preseason prior is keeping Auburn afloat at No. 15 in FPI's rankings. But there's reason for that: Even this far into the season, what we thought about teams in the preseason has predictive power. Altogether, FPI thinks the Tigers should be one-point favorites rather than underdogs by a touchdown.
Pick: Auburn +7

---

[h=3]No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 51) at TCU Horned Frogs, Noon ET (on ESPN2)[/h]Hale: The Horned Frogs are one of those teams that the more you watch, the less you like. There's very little identity on offense, and the 4-4 record masks the real story. The offense struggled badly against West Virginia, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor, and the Cowboys' D is better than any of those. Home field hasn't been much help for TCU (1-3), and Oklahoma State is 8-1 in its past nine when the spread is a field goal or less in either direction. Bottom line: The Pokes are a far better team, and they have something to play for. That's easily worth laying the 2.5.
Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5
Johnson: This point spread is puzzling to me. For starters, TCU head coach Gary Patterson told everybody that his team was missing more than 30 guys because of COVID-19 and injuries last week against Kansas. On the surface, TCU covered the game anyway, and everything seemed fine. But when you recognize that the Horned Frogs scored three defensive or special-teams touchdowns to make the score appear more acceptable against this hapless Jayhawks team, it might be cause for concern. My projection for this game is Oklahoma State -5, and though the Cowboys' defense hasn't been as stout its past two games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, they still grade top-25 in EPA and success rate on that side of the ball. The TCU offense isn't nearly on par with what those other squads bring to the field. I expect to see the Cowboys' defense rebound in a cover on anything lined under a field goal.
Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5

---

[h=3]Texas Longhorns (-7, 51.5) at Kansas State Wildcats, Noon ET (on FS2)[/h]Kezirian: Kansas State is not a good football team and would certainly classify as an "ugly dog" this weekend. The Wildcats have lost four straight games, including a 45-0 thrashing at Iowa State. However, this is all about Texas and its lack of motivation. The Longhorns were in the hunt for a spot in the Big 12 Championship game but blew a fourth-quarter lead last week at home to the Cyclones. It was a heartbreaking defeat for a Longhorns team that had high aspirations in Sam Ehlinger's final home game. Now they travel to the Little Apple and face a K-State team that figures to be much more excited for this game. The better talent of the Longhorns may eventually win out over the course of four quarters, but I like the Wildcats to have the edge in the first quarter.
Pick: Kansas State +1.5 first quarter (at DraftKings)

---

[h=3]Eastern Michigan Eagles at Western Michigan Broncos (-13.5, 65), 2 p.m. ET (on ESPN+)[/h]Connelly: First, SP+ has been awfully dialed in with Eastern Michigan games this season, missing the scoring margins by an average of just 3.6 points per game and going 4-0 ATS. Second, Western Michigan has overachieved against both the spread and SP+ projections by a healthy amount so far. The SP+ projection is Western Michigan by 19.0, so if the odds are good that the Broncos overachieve that, I'm feeling pretty good about this pick.
Western Michigan's offense has been absolutely dynamite, averaging 45 points per game. The Broncos lost their focus a bit midgame against Northern Illinois last week, but they rallied to score twice and win. Eastern Michigan's offense is decent in its own right, but the Eagles' defense is miserable. I'd be surprised if WMU is held under 40.
Pick: Western Michigan -13.5

---

[h=3]No. 24 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-12, 49.5) at Navy Midshipmen, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN2)[/h]Connelly: This pick makes me a bit queasy from a "Tulsa plays in only close games" perspective. Only one of the Golden Hurricane's six games to date has been decided by double digits. That one game was against the worst opponent on Tulsa's schedule (USF, 110th per SP+), and Tulsa won easily.
Navy is 107th. The SP+ projections have been pretty dialed in on Navy, too, missing the past five Midshipmen games by an average of seven points per game. It's at 8.2 points per game for the past three Tulsa games as well. It seems to have a good read on these two teams, and it projects a 15.1-point Tulsa advantage on average (34.8-19.7). Tulsa has some potential QB injury issues to worry about -- first-stringer Zach Smith and second-stringer Seth Boomer both exited the Tulane game because of injuries. Smith's status is unclear, but if nothing else, third-stringer Davis Brin looked awesome in the game. Between that and the fact that Navy's offense just hasn't executed well this season for the most part, give me Tulsa.
Pick: Tulsa -12

---

[h=3]No. 23 Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears (+10, 59), 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Johnson: I can't disregard what Cal has done to this point, despite its 0-3 record. The Bears dealt with a COVID-19 pause in their first two scheduled games and then added UCLA on a whim in a Sunday matchup with a limited roster. They hadn't been practicing in full and weren't prepared. It showed. Head coach Justin Wilcox turned things around in matchups against Oregon State and Stanford. The Bears lost those two games by a combined five points, despite outgaining the opponent in each game. I think at this point, we can expect the Cal team that we all projected entering the season: one that was 7-0 under quarterback Chase Garbers last season.
Combined with the bounce-back narrative surrounding Oregon after the Ducks lost outright in their rivalry game to Oregon State, I think we are getting a fairly good buy-low opportunity on the Bears (I project this game closer to +7.). The Ducks lost to the Beavers for a reason, and it was that their defense gave up 532 yards. Their defense as a whole this season ranks outside the top 100 in both EPA and success rate. If there is one defensive mind in the Pac-12 that can slow an admittedly elite Oregon offense, it's Wilcox's. Give me the 10 points.
Pick: Cal +10

---

[h=3]Florida Atlantic Owls +2.5 at Georgia Southern Eagles (-2.5, 42), 6 p.m. ET (on ESPN+)[/h]Hale: After witnessing 21 games of sheer misery during his time at Florida State, it was tough to get too excited about the Willie Taggart era at FAU. But the truth is the Owls have been good. Admittedly, the competition hasn't been much, but they played Marshall tough, and though the offense has been up and down, the defense looks really good. FAU ranks seventh nationally in yards-per-play allowed and has given up the second-lowest rate of explosive plays in the country. All of that provides a good lead-up to the big news on the other sideline, as Georgia Southern just fired offensive coordinator Bob DeBesse. The total on this game is 42, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go under, but I feel better about FAU winning this one outright.
Pick: FAU +2.5

---

[h=3]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-29.5, 67.5) at LSU Tigers, 8 p.m. ET (on CBS)[/h]Connelly: The line basically approximates a 49-19 Alabama win. It isn't difficult to see Alabama scoring 49, though LSU's defense has improved the past couple of games. But how in the world is LSU going to score 19? The Tigers scored 18 combined against Auburn and Texas A&M, their quarterback is going to be Sketchy Freshman A or Sketchy Freshman B, and the Crimson Tide have allowed just more than eight points per game their past four games. The only way this game goes over is if Alabama's defense takes its eye off the ball or Alabama's offense scores 60-plus. The latter wouldn't be amazingly surprising, but I'm skeptical.
Pick: Under 67.5
Kezirian: You know that cliché about rivalry games and throwing out the records? It does not apply here. LSU is as bad as its 3-4 record indicates, racking up those three wins against SEC cellar-dwellers (with a combined five wins). The offense is painful to watch. Quarterback TJ Finley seems to have regressed. He completed just nine of 25 passes last week against Texas A&M and was rightfully replaced by Max Johnson. Ed Orgeron should start Johnson, but it really doesn't matter. The Tigers will not score much, and I do not see how they will slow down Alabama's offensive juggernaut.
Garbage time might play a role, but I think Bama can overcome that wild card. Let me put it this way: Bama just won the Iron Bowl by 29 points. Auburn beat LSU by 37 points. I realize that handicapping involves more than the transitive property of common opponents, but this could be an absolute bloodbath because I wonder how much fight some LSU players have left.
Pick: Alabama -29.5

---

[h=3]Fresno State Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack (-7, 59), 10:30 p.m. ET (on FS1)[/h]Kezirian: I backed the Wolf Pack last week and regretted it as soon as they allowed Hawaii to covert a third-and-15 just before halftime. I was doomed. However, I have to run it back because I have been itching to fade Fresno State. The Bulldogs' 4-1 record is phony. Two of their wins came against lowly UNLV and Utah State. Another came against Hawaii, which is a much different team on the mainland, and then the Bulldogs beat Colorado State before Steve Addazio figured out that he was playing the wrong quarterback.
Following their first loss, Nevada players are saying all the right things. They seem to grasp the importance of this game and concede that they need a better mindset than they had against Hawaii. Plus, the team stayed Saturday night in Honolulu rather than flying out immediately after the game. That allowed the players' bodies to recover more effectively.
Pick: Nevada -7

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 15 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 15 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed or canceled because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records

• Stanford Steve (1-2 last week, 24-15 overall)
  
• The Bear (2-1, 22-18)

---

[h=2]The plays[/h]

[h=3]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-32, 68) at Arkansas Razorbacks[/h]Stanford Steve: I was so close to giving the over between 'Bama and LSU last week, but I just didn't trust what I saw from LSU on the offensive side the previous week at Texas A&M. This week, coach Sam Pittman and Kendal Briles, I assume, will have a better game plan and a more "interested" group to try to attack what might be the most improved unit in the sport since the start of the season: the Alabama defense. On the other side, what else can you say about the Mac Jones aerial assault? The guy has been incredible, throwing for another four TDs and 380-plus yards while playing only one snap in the fourth quarter. We'll take the over.
Pick: Over 68 (Alabama 51, Arkansas 20)

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[h=3]No. 15 USC Trojans (-3, 62) at UCLA Bruins[/h]The Bear: Recency bias is going to play a big role here. People saw and remember SC's brilliant passing performance Sunday vs. Washington State. I think SC will be a very public play, as people know the Trojans will head to the Pac-12 title game with a win. But SC's inability to run the ball last week worries me. UCLA is much improved at the line of scrimmage and could very easily be undefeated. The home 'dog looks like the right side to me.
Pick: UCLA +3

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[h=3]No. 20 Texas Longhorns (-29.5, 61) at Kansas Jayhawks[/h]Stanford Steve: You know the drill here: Go against the Jayhawks. Hook 'em.
Pick: Texas -29.5 (Texas 52, Kansas 20)

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[h=3]Auburn Tigers (-6.5, 49) at Mississippi State Bulldogs[/h]The Bear: You have to wonder what's left in the Tigers' tank after a trying past two weeks in which they got drilled by No. 1 Alabama and very easily could have upset No. 5 Texas A&M, with a dropped fourth-quarter INT-turned-TD a huge turning point. Now the Tigers have to head to Starkville, where State has played well the previous two times out, giving Georgia everything it could handle and against Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. There was a point when it looked like the Bulldogs' season could head south, but they have continued competing. I'll take the home underdog here, as the MSU defense will likely give "road" Bo Nix some problems.
Pick: Mississippi State +6.5

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[h=3]Stanford Cardinal (-3, 52.5) at Oregon State Beavers[/h]Stanford Steve: Can the self-proclaimed "Road Dogs" continue their winning ways on the road while still not being able to go home and sleep in their own beds? It will be easier said than done, as a battle-tested Beavers squad returns home after a tough loss to the Utes without their starting QB or RB last week in Salt Lake City. All signs point to them getting star RB Jermar Jefferson back after COVID-19 protocol. We'll take the home underdog to cover the points in a close game.
Pick: Oregon State +3 (Stanford 27, Oregon State 26)
The Bear: Stanford goes from the role of double-digit dog outright winner to road favorite -- and that's a dangerous proposition. The Cardinal have been on the road for a while now and go to Corvallis, where Oregon State beat Oregon and Cal this season. Give the Beavers credit for battling back while short-handed last week in Salt Lake City, and with Jermar Jefferson cleared to play this week, I like Oregon State at home to snap that 10-game losing streak to the Cardinal. Although home field is muted here, Reser Stadium has been a tricky spot for Stanford, as the past two trips have been decided by a combined four points.
Pick: Oregon State +3

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[h=3]Arizona State Sun Devils (-11, 55) at Arizona Wildcats[/h]Stanford Steve: I am doing something that I know I shouldn't be doing when it comes to the Territorial Cup. I am taking the favorite and giving the points. I know it's wrong, and I don't care. The Wildcats have lost 11 in a row as a program and have scored 14 and 13, respectively, in their past two games. I will take Herm and the boys to get their first win and cover the double digits.
Pick: Arizona State -11 (Arizona State 38, Arizona 22)

---

[h=3]Nevada Wolf Pack at San José State Spartans (-2.5, 58.5)[/h]Stanford Steve: I can't let my favorite story of the year end without giving them as a pick. What Brent Brennan and the Spartans have done this season is easily my favorite thing to happen in the sport, which started with preseason camp at Humboldt State. For the second straight week, SJSU is playing a home game not at its home field. Last week, the Spartans played a home game at Hawaii, and this week they play a home game at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. No matter what has been in the way, this team has overcome it, and the defense has been really impressive, giving up only 17 points per game on average. This will be a very well played game, but we'll take the favorite and lay the points.
Pick: San José State -2.5 (San Jose State 31, Nevada 24)

---

[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays[/h]UCLA +130
Mississippi State +205
Wyoming +340
Oregon State +125
Nevada +125

---

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]No. 17 North Carolina Tar Heels at No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (-3, 67.5)
• Miami is 5-2 ATS as a favorite this season. The Canes were 3-7 in their previous 10 games as favorites under Manny Diaz.
No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners (-14, 56.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers
• Oklahoma is 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings and has averaged 52.5 PPG in those games.
No. 15 USC (-3, 62) at UCLA
• This marks the 18th time in the past 19 years that USC is favored over UCLA; 2014 was the lone exception.
Wisconsin Badgers (-1, 41.5) at No. 16 Iowa Hawkeyes
• This would be the first time since 2010 that Iowa is favored over Wisconsin. The Badgers upset the Hawkeyes 31-30 at Kinnick that year.
Navy Midshipmen at Army Black Knights (-7, 38)
• In the past 12 games between academies, underdogs are 11-1 ATS and have won seven outright.
Tennessee Volunteers (-15, 50) at Vanderbilt Commodores
• Vanderbilt has covered seven of the past eight meetings and won five of the eight outright. Each of the past five meetings has been decided by double digits.

 

[exploited17]

^^^^That is last weeks games

 

[busterhyman]

^^^^That is last weeks games

you mean post 8167 is lw

 

[exploited17]

you mean post 8167 is lw

They were like 30 seconds apart

 

[BuzzKill]

Thanks!

Newsletters
Gaming Today December 9-15 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LtvRBneVN9yElrb4euErAUVAyQ4n9N57/view?usp=sharing
Gridiron Gold Sheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/15XehfwE5q-7ofjK9gALPHnWWOgJ5_K5q/view
Killer Sports - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ruNTizXQotXnX_2DQuiFuJyIhvFL4LGf/view?usp=sharing
Northcoast Sports Power Plays - https://drive.google.com/file/d/124m...tGPlLuBoY/view
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nXJ...iAl4lo-bV/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1U4TktunPcpKIguA3YKZPsldZdU_OWTw_/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Midweek Alert - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QyrF__Yds1ThMKobfbtRObjEJopoNTCd/view?usp=sharing
Pointwise - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1v8p...CZKEG9foG/view
Powers' Picks - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MJ8...VQzm8alVR/view
Sports Reporter - https://drive.google.com/file/d/15Lhld0DZFUjYGufUAwbA4cakT_muley9/view
VSiN Point Spread Weekly - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zcacPF1iO-INdC1pISvPkAuOhDy1vGk9/view
VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide Part 1 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y3t...H2l_wx_Pg/view
VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide Part 2 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FEG...SWgPciomp/view
Winning Points - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1II9...C4Q0kkR-l/view

Podcasts
Marc Lawrence's December 9 Podcast with Victor King - https://soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2020-12-09-marc-lawrenceagainst-the-spread
Stanford Steve and The Bear - http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=30486097
The Action Network Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...t/id1004530793

Tracking
This Season's Record Through December 7 - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=327&p=13349064&viewfull=1#post13349064

 

[Giant419]

My bad....
[h=1]Week 15 college football best bets: Who has the edge in USC-UCLA?[/h]Doug Kezirian (2-1 last week, 31-23 overall), Bill Connelly (1-2, 16-19), Preston Johnson (1-1, 23-18), David M. Hale (0-2, 15-19) and Seth Walder (0-1, 5-8) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 15 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

[h=3]No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 25 Missouri Tigers (+13, 53.5), Noon ET (on SEC Network)[/h]Johnson: This one is short and simple. I don't think the market has adjusted for UGA's offensive explosion since JT Daniels took over under center. The Bulldogs have upside that we haven't seen since Kirby Smart took over. The Tigers just gave up 48 to Arkansas and dropped a 50-ball themselves. This Bulldogs defense is tough, but I anticipate this Eliah Drinkwitz offense to put up some points. My projection is 56.6, and anything under 54 is a worthwhile bet to the over.
Pick: Over 53.5

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[h=3]No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners at West Virginia Mountaineers (+14, 56.5), Noon ET (on ABC)[/h]Johnson: Fun facts you probably didn't know: both of these defenses rank top 13 in EPA this season. They are both top 11 in success rate. And this doesn't even account for the strength of the offenses they have faced week in and week out in the Big 12. This is the best Sooners defense Lincoln Riley has had. Year No. 2 under defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has been a huge step in the right direction. Unfortunately for Riley, it's also the least efficient offense he has fielded in quite some time (ranking outside the top 25 in both EPA and success rate). My personal projection is 53.5, and I wouldn't play this any lower than 56.5, but it still has value in the current market.
Pick: Under 56.5

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[h=3]Utah Utes at No. 21 Colorado Buffaloes (-2, 49), Noon ET (on FOX)[/h]Connelly: SP+ sees Utah as a rather unfortunate team -- the Utes' postgame win expectancy for their loss to Washington was 61%, and their tight win over Oregon State was 96%. The scoring margin in these two games should have been about +19, but instead it was +3. Utah is currently 21st in SP+.
Unbeaten, ranked Colorado is 53rd in SP+. The Buffaloes have done a great job of making key late plays -- blowing big leads against UCLA and Stanford but holding on, then easing ahead for wins of 10 and 11 points against San Diego State and Arizona. But of those opponents, only UCLA ranks higher than 57th. Utah is the best team Colorado has played. SP+ says Utah by 6.2, and it's not going to surprise me at all if Utah wins.
Pick: Utah +2
Hale: Karl Dorrell has done a fine job in his first season at Colorado, but it feels a little like smoke and mirrors, playing four relatively close games against four mediocre at best teams. Utah, meanwhile, struggled to find its footing at the start -- failing to even get on the field until Nov. 21 and flip-flopping QBs along the way. Last week, however, the offense seemed to figure some things out, and the defense had been consistently good, with five picks through three games. This spread seems like an overreaction to some fluky games. I see Utah trending in the right direction and Colorado due for a setback.
Pick: Utah +2

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[h=3]Minnesota Golden Gophers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-10.5, 59), Noon ET[/h]Johnson: Minnesota's season -- along with a majority of the teams in the Big Ten -- has been strange. At the start, the Gophers dealt with a number of positive COVID-19 tests and were missing players from games and practices for multiple weeks. The defense suffered the most, and it's worth noting that they do rank near the bottom of the country on that side of the ball. Their offense, however, ranks 14th in the country in success rate. For comparison's sake, the Cornhuskers rank 38th. Nebraska's defense hasn't been anything special either, ranking outside the top 80 in multiple efficiency metrics. The Gophers will have had extra rest and preparation time heading into this matchup, and PJ Fleck is certainly a coach that I can count on in that regard. I can't get close to double-digits with this spread. My projection comes in closer to +7, so I have to take the points.
Pick: Minnesota +10.5

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[h=3]Miami (OH) RedHawks (-24, 49.5) at Bowling Green Falcons, Noon ET (on ESPN3)[/h]Hale: There isn't a line high enough that you shouldn't fade Bowling Green. Akron just beat Bowling Green by 28, and Akron is, by any metric, horrible. That the RedHawks have a modicum of talent only makes this more obvious. Just take the money and thank the football gods that someone thought Scot Leoffler and Brian Van Gorder were the right mix to lead this program.
Pick: Miami (OH) -24

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[h=3]No. 13 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (-14.5, 51.5) at Troy Trojans, 3 p.m. ET (on ESPN+)[/h]Kezirian: I am fading the Chants off that big win over BYU. It's just a lot to ask for them to keep churning out convincing wins. As for this approach, I think it's more likely I go 2-0 ATS than 0-2 ATS. I hope.
Pick: Troy +7 (first half)

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[h=3]Boise State Broncos (-11.5, 47.5) at Wyoming Cowboys, 6 p.m. ET (on CBSSN)[/h]Kezirian: I imagine Wyoming will be determined to play a strong game after losing to winless New Mexico, which was relegated to a fifth-string quarterback. That's as bad of a loss as a team can have. However, Boise State enters this game with plenty at stake. The Broncos control their own destiny and will qualify for the Mountain West championship game with a victory. Sometimes in these situations we've seen teams play tight and even suffer an upset. However, the Broncos have plenty of experience playing with these types of stakes, and I trust them to handle their business. The Cowboys are a decent team by Group of 5 standards, but they are overmatched here.
Pick: Boise State -11.5

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[h=3]North Texas Mean Green (-10.5, 62.5) at UTEP Miners, 6 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)[/h]Kezirian: This game is not exactly a marquee showdown, but all tickets cash the same. This analysis starts with North Texas, which is among the nation's worst teams. In six of their last seven games, the Mean Green have allowed at least 35 points. UTEP is nearly as bad, allowing 6.1 yards per play (95th in FBS). To complicate matters, North Texas ranks 20th in FBS in number of plays per game. That fast pace just lends itself to a track meet.
Pick: Over 62.5

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[h=3]LSU Tigers at No. 6 Florida Gators (-23.5, 67.5), 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Johnson: LSU has made strides on both sides of the ball since the horrific start to its 2020 season. Florida deserves the market respect it is getting, but not to this extent. I can't even get my projection any higher than +19 giving every weighted in-season variable and benefit of the doubt to the Gators. Implementing my priors -- my preseason assessment of teams entering the season -- my projection in this matchup is even lower. The talk of the town is Florida-Alabama already in the SEC championship game, and while I never anticipate the Gators' coaches and players to be looking ahead, it certainly can't hurt our side on an already inflated number. Give me the points.
Pick: LSU +23.5

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[h=3]Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at TCU Horned Frogs (-21.5, 52.5), 7 p.m. ET (on FS1)[/h]Connelly: It has been a "two steps forward, one step back" kind of season for TCU. The Horned Frogs beat Texas, then lost to Kansas State. They beat Baylor and Texas Tech by a combined 26 points, then got thumped by West Virginia. They've beaten Kansas and Oklahoma State the past two weeks, but can they finish with another strong performance?
They'll probably beat Louisiana Tech, strong performance or not. But the Bulldogs' defense looked good in last week's win over North Texas, their first game in more than a month, and, well, 21.5 is a lot of points. SP+ projects more of a 14-point win for TCU, which offers a decent amount of cushion, especially considering neither team works at a super-fast tempo.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +21.5

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Kedon Slovis and USC are mild favorites at UCLA on Saturday. Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

[h=3]No. 15 USC Trojans (-2.5, 62) at UCLA Bruins, 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)[/h]Kezirian: My initial reaction to this matchup is over the total, and I do not see a reason to change that stance. USC's offense has looked fairly impressive this year. It has hit some slow stretches, but I think that was more rust and a lopsided score dictating the intensity. This rivalry game will bring out the Trojans' best, and UCLA's poor defense will also cooperate. The Bruins have looked sharper in their past two games, but I think that is more attributed to the pedestrian offenses of Arizona and Arizona State. Colorado and Oregon both lit up UCLA, and I expect USC to do the same.
Pick: Over 62
Johnson: Chip Kelly has made strides with this UCLA team this season and nearly upset Oregon with backup quarterback Chase Griffin, but the Ducks since have lost outright to the Beavers and Bears. The Bruins' win over Cal early in the season on a mid-week scheduled Sunday game after Cal didn't get to practice prior in full for two weeks is misleading. I'm not buying what the current market is selling in regard to UCLA football. USC is still far and away the better team, and I project the Trojans to win by three or more points 57% of the time. That's good enough for me to beat the -110 on a Trojans air raid style offense that is by far the most effective and dangerous of any UCLA has seen to date. I'm laying it under a field goal.
Pick: USC -2.5

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[h=3]Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies (-2.5, 62), 8 p.m. ET (on ACC Network)[/h][h=1]Stream Bet[/h]Hale: The simple narrative here is that Virginia Tech has fallen off a cliff (lost five of six) and Justin Fuente is on his way out. Both those things may be true, but the story is more complex. Three of the Hokies' losses were by a touchdown or less. Last week's game against Clemson was far closer than the 45-10 final score indicates, as the Hokies were a yard away from tying the game up at the half and only a flurry of turnovers swung the score late. The underlying stats tell you something, too. Virginia Tech has the fifth-most explosive offense in the country. Virginia's defense ranks 120th in allowing explosive plays.
Despite the records, ESPN's FPI has the Hokies ranked 21 spots ahead of the Cavaliers. And while it's not clear how many players want Fuente back next year, it sure seems like a now-or-never game for Virginia Tech. Meanwhile, the Virginia coaches and players were pretty blunt this week in discussing their mixed feelings about going to a bowl versus heading home for the holidays during the pandemic. It all adds up to not just a game Virginia Tech must win, but one that the numbers suggest it should win, by a touchdown or more.
Pick: Virginia Tech -2.5

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[h=3]Utah State Aggies at Colorado State Rams (-13.5, 51.5), 9:30 p.m. ET (on CBSSN)[/h]Kezirian: I have certainly criticized Colorado State a few times in this space, but everything is relative. The Rams are significantly better than Utah State. The Aggies have switched quarterbacks and head coaches, which has led to some improved play, but they still should not be able to keep this game within two touchdowns. Utah State allows 6.3 yards per play, which ranks 105th in FBS. Meanwhile, the Rams are only allowing 4.6 yards per play, and that ranks 11th. Now, the quality of an opponent matters, but both teams have only faced a Mountain West schedule.
CSU has three losses, and two of them are understandable: Boise State and San Diego State on the road. The loss to Fresno State is somewhat misleading because Steve Adazio had yet to realize Patrick O'Brien should be his starting QB. Utah State's lone win came against New Mexico, which currently only has one win to date. That was also the lone game the Aggies have covered.
Pick: Colorado State -7 (first half), Colorado State -13.5

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[h=3]San Diego State Aztecs at No. 18 BYU Cougars (-16.5, 49), 10 p.m. ET (on ESPN2)[/h]Kezirian: I am fading both BYU and Coastal Carolina, coming off that epic game with such significant implications. I expect both teams to be a bit flat this weekend. I also like this San Diego State squad, although the offense occasionally gets stuck in a rut. The defense is the only unit in the country allowing less than four yards per play. That is the program's calling card, but Cougars quarterback Zach Wilson will certainly test them. So that's why I am going to isolate a first-half play. I think San Diego State can start strong and keep this within the number before Wilson and the offense wake up.
Pick: SDSU +8.5 (first half)

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[h=3]Stanford Cardinal (-3, 52.5) at Oregon State Beavers, 10:30 p.m. ET (on ESPNU)[/h]Johnson: The 30-24 final score in the Oregon State-Utah game last week was misleading. The Beavers only managed to score 10 points before the final two drives of the game against a Utes prevent defense. Backup quarterback Chance Nolan made his first start after Tristan Gebbia was injured for the season in their win over Oregon. He wasn't very good. Stanford is hitting stride after a slow start to its unique 2020 season with wins over Cal and Washington. The fact that the Cardinal are only -3 here at Oregon State against the backup quarterback is disrespectful to the program and Davis Mills (44-of-62 passing and 461 yards in those two wins). Even in their three-point loss to Colorado, they put up 32 points on 327 yards from Mills through the air. He hasn't thrown an INT yet this season. I make this point spread -6.5 and am happy to lay the -3.
Pick: Stanford -3

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[h=3]California Golden Bears (-2.5, 54) at Washington State Cougars, 10:30 p.m. ET (on FS1)[/h]Connelly: Cal looked between below average and bad in its first three games and then pulled off one of the least likely wins of the season, beating Oregon 21-17 despite a postgame win expectancy of 6%. (Postgame win expectancy takes all the key predictive stats a given game produced, throws them into the air, and says, "Team A could have expected to win this game X% of the time.") The Bears fell in SP+ even after pulling this big upset.
Washington State, meanwhile, looked pretty competitive in its first two games, unexpectedly had two weeks off, then got blitzed by USC in a hailstorm of short fields and turnovers. The Cougars gave up 28 first-quarter points, but 21 came off short fields stemming from a bad punt and two interceptions. The Cougars fought USC to a draw the rest of the game. Looking at the teams' full-season performances, Washington State should be favored by three or four points.
Pick: Washington State +2.5

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[h=3]UNLV Rebels at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-20, 57), 11 p.m. ET[/h]Kezirian: UNLV has yet to win or cover a game this season, and I do not see how that streak stops in the finale after traveling to Hawai'i and facing a Rainbow Warriors squad coming off a loss. This UNLV defense is among the worst I have ever watched. Statistically, the Rebels rank fourth-worst in yards allowed per play. Every time I watch the Rebels, defensive backs are getting beat easily or committing horrendous penalties. Hawai'i dual-threat QB Chevan Cordeiro should have a field day. The UNLV offense has not fared much better, having yet to find a productive QB. The Rebels have only topped 20 points one time this year. This might be my top play on the card.
Pick: Hawai'i -11 (first half), Hawaii -20

 

[microphone]

Victor King's Totals Tip Sheet

https://drive.google.com/file/d/11mun2DetbCalCW_k9y_BlU2_kId4ahJz

 

[grimreaper1]

No gold sheet yet boss?

 

[BuzzKill]

Thanks!

Newsletters
Gaming Today December 9-15 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LtvRBneVN9yElrb4euErAUVAyQ4n9N57/view?usp=sharing
Gridiron Gold Sheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/15XehfwE5q-7ofjK9gALPHnWWOgJ5_K5q/view
Killer Sports - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ruNTizXQotXnX_2DQuiFuJyIhvFL4LGf/view?usp=sharing
Northcoast Sports Power Plays - https://drive.google.com/file/d/124m...tGPlLuBoY/view
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nXJ...iAl4lo-bV/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1U4TktunPcpKIguA3YKZPsldZdU_OWTw_/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook Midweek Alert - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QyrF__Yds1ThMKobfbtRObjEJopoNTCd/view?usp=sharing
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gziFJF2RCidUD-JW9-6uhKdj7FAG1BLr/view?usp=sharing
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - Thursday NFL - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tPwrw5MsK-0Ml61c_Ub_PlttaKro4ajz/view
Pointwise - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1v8p...CZKEG9foG/view
Powers' Picks - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MJ8...VQzm8alVR/view
Sports Reporter - https://drive.google.com/file/d/15Lhld0DZFUjYGufUAwbA4cakT_muley9/view
Victor King's Totals Tipsheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/11mun2DetbCalCW_k9y_BlU2_kId4ahJz/edit
VSiN Point Spread Weekly - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zcacPF1iO-INdC1pISvPkAuOhDy1vGk9/view
VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide Part 1 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y3t...H2l_wx_Pg/view
VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide Part 2 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FEG...SWgPciomp/view
Winning Points - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1II9...C4Q0kkR-l/view

Podcasts
Marc Lawrence's December 9 Podcast with Victor King - https://soundcloud.com/marclawrencepodcast/2020-12-09-marc-lawrenceagainst-the-spread
Stanford Steve and The Bear - http://www.espn.com/espnradio/play?id=30486097
The Action Network Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...t/id1004530793

Tracking
This Season's Record Through December 7 - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=327&p=13349064&viewfull=1#post13349064

 

[danstiller]

Is the Gold Sheet out of business? I was fading their picks.

 

[grimreaper1]

https://www.goldsheet.com/publication/pdf.php?publication=gs&type=normal&week=14

 

[BuzzKill]

Red Sheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GqnE0HyErNpn_o_4x3GC8K4wblz-kznA/view

 

[grimreaper1]

I submitted gold sheet but guess they aren't approving post!!