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BuzzKill · Dec 2, 2020

BuzzKill · Dec 2, 2020

BuzzKill · Dec 2, 2020

microphone · Dec 3, 2020

Victor King's Totals Tip Sheet

https://drive.google.com/file/d/14JuXPOP7kABtkBmoGxnS2DxNgKF9RKTd

G-Man! · Dec 3, 2020

Any Marc Lawrence -MIDWEEK ALERT?

Giant419 · Dec 3, 2020

[h=1]Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 14 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]College football is in full swing in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. How will the guys fare this week?
Here is your guide to Week 14 of the season from the two college football analysts. (Games postponed or canceled because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records

Stanford Steve (2-1 last week, 23-13 overall)
The Bear (2-0, 20-17)

[h=2]The plays[/h]

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[h=3]No. 3 Clemson Tigers (-22, 67) at Virginia Tech Hokies[/h]Stanford Steve: Last week we expected Clemson to come out with a lot of effort and try to punish Pitt after not being able to play for a couple of weeks without the best player in the sport, QB Trevor Lawrence. I expect a big effort again from the Tigers as they go on the road to show what they have in prime time. I was thinking the over was the play -- and I like it -- but I just can't trust what I think I'm going to get out of the Hokies, as last time we saw them play, they scored 17 vs. Pitt, who was just ambushed by Clemson 52-17. So, we'll take the big road favorite here.
Pick: Clemson -22 (Clemson 52, Virginia Tech 20)

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[h=3]No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-7, 49) at Auburn Tigers[/h]The Bear: Last week I was totally opposed to the Tigers in Tuscaloosa, but this week I'm grabbing the points. I don't think Auburn is a great team, but A&M has had as many lethargic performances as good ones, and the Tigers beat LSU in much more impressive fashion than the Aggies did. A&M's pass game has struggled at times this season, and I think Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele will be able to draw up a defense to slow down the Aggies. And being that the game is at Jordan-Hare, we'll get good Bo Nix.
Pick: Auburn +7

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[h=3]No. 23 Oregon Ducks (-10, 59) at California Golden Bears[/h]The Bear: After getting blown out by UCLA, the Bears have lost a couple of close ones, including last week on a blocked PAT. Oregon has been far from impressive this year and has struggled with turnovers and stopping the run. This feels like a good spot to see Cal's best performance of the year after losing a couple of very winnable games.
Pick: Cal +10

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[h=3]Boston College Eagles at Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5, 54.5)[/h]Stanford Steve: I might be scared from the last time we saw the Cavaliers, when they ran the throwback pass in the end zone vs. Abilene Christian that I titled "36 to 99 back to 36," but one of the best head coaching jobs in a first year has to be Jeff Hafley at Boston College. For a team that seemed so run dominant in years past, the Eagles have really balanced things out, thanks in part to transfer QB Phil Jurkovec, who has thrown for over 2,500 yards and 17 TDs in 10 games. The thought here is the Eagles have enough to keep it close. We'll take the points.
Pick: Boston College +6.5 (Virginia 21, Boston College 20)

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[h=3]Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-27.5, 62.5)[/h]Stanford Steve: The idea of going against the Jayhawks this year on a weekly basis has been very, very good to us this year. But last week I was impressed by the play of Kansas QB Miles Kendrick, and I think the boys from Lawrence will score a couple of points. So, we will go over the total between Lubbock and Les Miles.
Pick: Over 62.5 (Texas Tech 48, Kansas 21)

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[h=3]UCLA Bruins at Arizona State Sun Devils (-3, 55)[/h]The Bear: UCLA's two losses have been of the self-inflicted variety as a result of turnovers. The Bruins have been pounding people with Demetric Felton and the running game and very easily could be 4-0 after a lot of people were running Chip Kelly out of Westwood following the loss to Colorado. We have no idea what to expect from ASU, which has played one game. There's quite a few NFL minds on that sideline, but who knows where the kids' minds are right now.
Pick: UCLA +3.5

[h=2]The Bear's money line parlay[/h]$100 returns $36
Clemson -2000
Ohio State -4000
Marshall -2400
Florida -800
Texas Tech -4000
Oklahoma -1800
Miami -625
Alabama -4500

[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line, in round robins and parlays[/h]Arkansas +130
Auburn +210
TCU +115
Cal +290
UCLA +135

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]No. 3 Clemson (-22, 67) at Virginia Tech
• Under Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech is 0-6 vs. top-10 teams (1-5 ATS).
• The last time Virginia Tech was this big of an underdog was in 1991 when the Hokies were a 27-point underdog to No. 1 Florida State. The last time Tech was a 20-point underdog at Lane Stadium was in 1988. That was Frank Beamer's second year as head coach.
No. 5 Texas A&M (-7, 49) at Auburn
• Since 2016, Auburn has been a home underdog six times. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS and have won four of them outright.
No. 6 Florida Gators (-17.5, 62.5) at Tennessee Volunteers
• There have been two instances when the favorite in the Florida-Tennessee game has been at least a 17-point favorite: 2009, when the Gators were a 30-point favorite and won 23-13; and 2001, when Florida was a 17.5-point favorite and lost 34-32 to the Vols in Gainesville.
Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 8 Georgia Bulldogs (-35.5, 54)
• Dating to 2018, favorites of greater than 30 points in SEC games are 2-7 ATS. And if you take Alabama out of the equation, they are 0-4 ATS in that span.
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (NL) at Duke Blue Devils
• Miami's past three games have been decided by a combined nine points. Two were wins as a double-digit favorite. The Canes are 2-10 ATS, with there outright losses in their last 12 games as a 14-point favorite vs. FBS opponents.
No. 12 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 16 Wisconsin Badgers (-14, 45.5)
• The Hoosiers are the only team that is 6-0 ATS. Wisconsin has lost twice since 2018 as greater than a 14-point favorite. The only team to have lost more in that span is San Diego State (three times).
No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 51) at TCU Horned Frogs
• Oklahoma State has won 10 of its past 12 games in which the spread has been between +3 and -3 (8-2-2 ATS).
No. 19 Iowa Hawkeyes (-13.5, 51) at Illinois Fighting Illini
• Iowa's past three Big Ten games as double-digit favorites have all been single-digit wins -- last week vs. Nebraska and last year vs. Illinois and Purdue.
Stanford Cardinal at No. 22 Washington Huskies (-11.5, 50)
• Stanford has failed to cover each of its past seven games and is 2-12 ATS in its past 14 games. Stanford's past three games as a double-digit 'dog have resulted in losses by 21, 21 and 27 points (all non-covers).
No. 23 Oregon (-10, 59) at California
• Under Justin Wilcox, Cal is 18-8 ATS with 11 outright wins as an underdog. As a double-digit 'dog, Cal has won outright four times in 10 games (7-3 ATS).
Texas Longhorns (-7, 51.5) at Kansas State Wildcats
• Under Chris Klieman, Kansas State is 4-0 ATS with three outright wins as a home underdog. Dating to 2018, K-State has covered seven straight as a home 'dog, and over the long haul the Cats are 18-5 ATS with 11 outright wins in their past 23 games as a home underdog. Since 1998, Kansas State is 12-4 ATS vs. Texas.
Penn State Nittany Lions (NL) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
• Rutgers' past three games have been decided by a combined 16 points. Penn State hasn't covered consecutive games since September 2018, a span of 28 games.
Colorado Buffaloes (-7, 59) at Arizona Wildcats
• This is the 19th time in 23 games vs. Power 5 opponents under Kevin Sumlin that the Wildcats are an underdog.

Giant419 · Dec 3, 2020

[h=1]Week 14 college football best bets: Tide should roll vs. struggling LSU[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (0-2 last week, 29-22 overall), Bill Connelly (1-1, 15-17), Preston Johnson (0-3, 22-17), David M. Hale (1-1, 15-17) and Seth Walder (1-0, 5-7) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 14 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

[h=3]No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies (-7, 48.5) at Auburn Tigers, Noon ET (on ESPN)[/h]Walder: I think there's a little inflation here due to the Aggies' selection committee ranking. A big factor in the committee's ranking system is résumé. A win is a win in the standings, but how that win happened is critical for predicting future performance. A&M's three-point win over Florida earned it more clout in terms of strength of record than it did in FPI, and its five-point win over Vanderbilt is considered a negative by FPI. The Aggies have been the 13th-most efficient team this season, after accounting for opponent strength and garbage time, but FPI gives them a bit more credit because of preseason expectations and ranks them ninth.
Meanwhile, that preseason prior is keeping Auburn afloat at No. 15 in FPI's rankings. But there's reason for that: Even this far into the season, what we thought about teams in the preseason has predictive power. Altogether, FPI thinks the Tigers should be one-point favorites rather than underdogs by a touchdown.
Pick: Auburn +7

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[h=3]No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-2.5, 51) at TCU Horned Frogs, Noon ET (on ESPN2)[/h]Hale: The Horned Frogs are one of those teams that the more you watch, the less you like. There's very little identity on offense, and the 4-4 record masks the real story. The offense struggled badly against West Virginia, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Baylor, and the Cowboys' D is better than any of those. Home field hasn't been much help for TCU (1-3), and Oklahoma State is 8-1 in its past nine when the spread is a field goal or less in either direction. Bottom line: The Pokes are a far better team, and they have something to play for. That's easily worth laying the 2.5.
Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5
Johnson: This point spread is puzzling to me. For starters, TCU head coach Gary Patterson told everybody that his team was missing more than 30 guys because of COVID-19 and injuries last week against Kansas. On the surface, TCU covered the game anyway, and everything seemed fine. But when you recognize that the Horned Frogs scored three defensive or special-teams touchdowns to make the score appear more acceptable against this hapless Jayhawks team, it might be cause for concern. My projection for this game is Oklahoma State -5, and though the Cowboys' defense hasn't been as stout its past two games against Oklahoma and Texas Tech, they still grade top-25 in EPA and success rate on that side of the ball. The TCU offense isn't nearly on par with what those other squads bring to the field. I expect to see the Cowboys' defense rebound in a cover on anything lined under a field goal.
Pick: Oklahoma State -2.5

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[h=3]Texas Longhorns (-7, 51.5) at Kansas State Wildcats, Noon ET (on FS2)[/h]Kezirian: Kansas State is not a good football team and would certainly classify as an "ugly dog" this weekend. The Wildcats have lost four straight games, including a 45-0 thrashing at Iowa State. However, this is all about Texas and its lack of motivation. The Longhorns were in the hunt for a spot in the Big 12 Championship game but blew a fourth-quarter lead last week at home to the Cyclones. It was a heartbreaking defeat for a Longhorns team that had high aspirations in Sam Ehlinger's final home game. Now they travel to the Little Apple and face a K-State team that figures to be much more excited for this game. The better talent of the Longhorns may eventually win out over the course of four quarters, but I like the Wildcats to have the edge in the first quarter.
Pick: Kansas State +1.5 first quarter (at DraftKings)

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[h=3]Eastern Michigan Eagles at Western Michigan Broncos (-13.5, 65), 2 p.m. ET (on ESPN+)[/h]Connelly: First, SP+ has been awfully dialed in with Eastern Michigan games this season, missing the scoring margins by an average of just 3.6 points per game and going 4-0 ATS. Second, Western Michigan has overachieved against both the spread and SP+ projections by a healthy amount so far. The SP+ projection is Western Michigan by 19.0, so if the odds are good that the Broncos overachieve that, I'm feeling pretty good about this pick.
Western Michigan's offense has been absolutely dynamite, averaging 45 points per game. The Broncos lost their focus a bit midgame against Northern Illinois last week, but they rallied to score twice and win. Eastern Michigan's offense is decent in its own right, but the Eagles' defense is miserable. I'd be surprised if WMU is held under 40.
Pick: Western Michigan -13.5

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[h=3]No. 24 Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-12, 49.5) at Navy Midshipmen, 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN2)[/h]Connelly: This pick makes me a bit queasy from a "Tulsa plays in only close games" perspective. Only one of the Golden Hurricane's six games to date has been decided by double digits. That one game was against the worst opponent on Tulsa's schedule (USF, 110th per SP+), and Tulsa won easily.
Navy is 107th. The SP+ projections have been pretty dialed in on Navy, too, missing the past five Midshipmen games by an average of seven points per game. It's at 8.2 points per game for the past three Tulsa games as well. It seems to have a good read on these two teams, and it projects a 15.1-point Tulsa advantage on average (34.8-19.7). Tulsa has some potential QB injury issues to worry about -- first-stringer Zach Smith and second-stringer Seth Boomer both exited the Tulane game because of injuries. Smith's status is unclear, but if nothing else, third-stringer Davis Brin looked awesome in the game. Between that and the fact that Navy's offense just hasn't executed well this season for the most part, give me Tulsa.
Pick: Tulsa -12

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[h=3]No. 23 Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears (+10, 59), 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Johnson: I can't disregard what Cal has done to this point, despite its 0-3 record. The Bears dealt with a COVID-19 pause in their first two scheduled games and then added UCLA on a whim in a Sunday matchup with a limited roster. They hadn't been practicing in full and weren't prepared. It showed. Head coach Justin Wilcox turned things around in matchups against Oregon State and Stanford. The Bears lost those two games by a combined five points, despite outgaining the opponent in each game. I think at this point, we can expect the Cal team that we all projected entering the season: one that was 7-0 under quarterback Chase Garbers last season.
Combined with the bounce-back narrative surrounding Oregon after the Ducks lost outright in their rivalry game to Oregon State, I think we are getting a fairly good buy-low opportunity on the Bears (I project this game closer to +7.). The Ducks lost to the Beavers for a reason, and it was that their defense gave up 532 yards. Their defense as a whole this season ranks outside the top 100 in both EPA and success rate. If there is one defensive mind in the Pac-12 that can slow an admittedly elite Oregon offense, it's Wilcox's. Give me the 10 points.
Pick: Cal +10

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[h=3]Florida Atlantic Owls +2.5 at Georgia Southern Eagles (-2.5, 42), 6 p.m. ET (on ESPN+)[/h]Hale: After witnessing 21 games of sheer misery during his time at Florida State, it was tough to get too excited about the Willie Taggart era at FAU. But the truth is the Owls have been good. Admittedly, the competition hasn't been much, but they played Marshall tough, and though the offense has been up and down, the defense looks really good. FAU ranks seventh nationally in yards-per-play allowed and has given up the second-lowest rate of explosive plays in the country. All of that provides a good lead-up to the big news on the other sideline, as Georgia Southern just fired offensive coordinator Bob DeBesse. The total on this game is 42, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go under, but I feel better about FAU winning this one outright.
Pick: FAU +2.5

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[h=3]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-29.5, 67.5) at LSU Tigers, 8 p.m. ET (on CBS)[/h]Connelly: The line basically approximates a 49-19 Alabama win. It isn't difficult to see Alabama scoring 49, though LSU's defense has improved the past couple of games. But how in the world is LSU going to score 19? The Tigers scored 18 combined against Auburn and Texas A&M, their quarterback is going to be Sketchy Freshman A or Sketchy Freshman B, and the Crimson Tide have allowed just more than eight points per game their past four games. The only way this game goes over is if Alabama's defense takes its eye off the ball or Alabama's offense scores 60-plus. The latter wouldn't be amazingly surprising, but I'm skeptical.
Pick: Under 67.5
Kezirian: You know that cliché about rivalry games and throwing out the records? It does not apply here. LSU is as bad as its 3-4 record indicates, racking up those three wins against SEC cellar-dwellers (with a combined five wins). The offense is painful to watch. Quarterback TJ Finley seems to have regressed. He completed just nine of 25 passes last week against Texas A&M and was rightfully replaced by Max Johnson. Ed Orgeron should start Johnson, but it really doesn't matter. The Tigers will not score much, and I do not see how they will slow down Alabama's offensive juggernaut.
Garbage time might play a role, but I think Bama can overcome that wild card. Let me put it this way: Bama just won the Iron Bowl by 29 points. Auburn beat LSU by 37 points. I realize that handicapping involves more than the transitive property of common opponents, but this could be an absolute bloodbath because I wonder how much fight some LSU players have left.
Pick: Alabama -29.5

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[h=3]Fresno State Bulldogs at Nevada Wolf Pack (-7, 59), 10:30 p.m. ET (on FS1)[/h]Kezirian: I backed the Wolf Pack last week and regretted it as soon as they allowed Hawaii to covert a third-and-15 just before halftime. I was doomed. However, I have to run it back because I have been itching to fade Fresno State. The Bulldogs' 4-1 record is phony. Two of their wins came against lowly UNLV and Utah State. Another came against Hawaii, which is a much different team on the mainland, and then the Bulldogs beat Colorado State before Steve Addazio figured out that he was playing the wrong quarterback.
Following their first loss, Nevada players are saying all the right things. They seem to grasp the importance of this game and concede that they need a better mindset than they had against Hawaii. Plus, the team stayed Saturday night in Honolulu rather than flying out immediately after the game. That allowed the players' bodies to recover more effectively.
Pick: Nevada -7

BuzzKill · Dec 3, 2020

BuzzKill · Dec 3, 2020

Thanks!

G-Man! · Dec 3, 2020

Anyone have Marc lawrence. MIDWEEK ALERT?

microphone · Dec 3, 2020

G-Man! said:
Anyone have Marc Lawrence. MIDWEEK ALERT?

If we had it we'd post it.
Don't be shy, if you'd like to buy it and share with everyone, go for it.

Thank you

JKimmes · Dec 3, 2020

https://www.playbook.com//2020MW11.pdf

busterhyman · Dec 3, 2020

JKimmes said:
https://www.playbook.com//2020MW11.pdf

this is the midweek alert

G-Man! · Dec 3, 2020

JKimmes said:
https://www.playbook.com//2020MW11.pdf

busterhyman said:
this is the midweek alert

Thanks Boys.

BuzzKill · Dec 4, 2020

BuzzKill · Dec 4, 2020

Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College Thanksgiving plays (for your information) - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RYbGOQ17QiY5GSR77Gbp9EC2g4oU8XGE/view?usp=sharing
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College (latest issue) - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gziFJF2RCidUD-JW9-6uhKdj7FAG1BLr/edit

danstiller · Dec 4, 2020

Hi Buzz,
I saw you had this listing >
Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (28-27-1)
NFL Best Bets (27-24-1) (Balt +4.5 and Over 44 pending)

This part > (Balt +4.5 and Over 44 pending) is actually void because the game was not played on Sunday. I bet the picks and the sportsbook voided the picks and returned my bet money. So I believe, based on the sportsbook void that these two picks should not count on their records.

BatonRougeBoys · Dec 5, 2020

Mississippi Kid
NCAAF ADDS
Kentucky vs SC Under 47 1U
Ala TT Over 46.5 1U
Ala 1St H TT Over 26.6 1U
LSU TT Under 19.5 1U
Aub vs A&M Under 47 1U
Okl ST -2 1U
Coastal Carolina TT Under 25.5 1U