[h=1]'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 8 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]College football is underway in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar, though: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. The Bear is on a roll, with two perfect weeks in a row (5-0). Can he keep it up?
Here is your guide to Week 8 of the season with the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
[h=2]The plays[/h]
[h=3]No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 58.5) at Indiana Hoosiers[/h]The Bear: We know 2020 has thrown us some challenges and curveballs. We'll know for sure how messed up this year is if the Hoosiers snap their 25-game losing streak to top-10 teams. Kidding aside, I think this is a pretty good spot for Indiana. Penn State is down LB Micah Parsons, WR/KR KJ Hamler and RB Journey Brown. In fact, one might argue that the Hoosiers have the better QB/RB combo in Michael Penix and Stevie Scott. Are Penn State's young WR and RB ready to contribute right off the bat? How will that fill the massive void left by Parsons? In the end, maybe Indiana will do Indiana things and drop a 26th straight to top-10 teams, but I'm grabbing the points here.
Pick: Indiana +6.5
[h=3]No. 23 NC State Wolfpack at No. 14 North Carolina Tar Heels (-15, 61)[/h]Stanford Steve: The line is a little eye-opening, as a one-loss team is getting more than two touchdowns. But I think there will be plenty of points scored in this game. On one side, you have the Tar Heels, who were absolutely brutal in a loss last week in Tallahassee, falling behind 31-7 at halftime and losing 31-28, thanks to a pick-six, two blocked punts and numerous dropped passes. On the other side, you have the Pack, who have exceeded expectations this year by starting 4-1, are averaging more than 33 points per game on offense and give up an average of 31 points per game. We'll take over the total 61 points.
Pick: Over 61 (North Carolina 41, NC State 28)
The Bear: It isn't often that you see a matchup between two teams ranked outside the top 10 with a spread larger than 14 points. There has been one each of the past three years, though, and in all three instances the favorite won and covered easily. I think NC State could be a little dog with fleas-ish this week because of a rivalry game with a large spread and the fact that UNC was upset last week in Tallahassee. But remember, Wolfpack QB Devin Leary is out, and the team's wins are by a field goal over Wake Forest, by a point vs. Pitt in a game in which they allowed more than 500 yards and were outgained by more than 100, at Virginia and vs. Duke (they forced seven turnovers in those two games). I have a feeling UNC will start much faster this week off the loss and with a rivalry game for bragging rights on the slate.
Pick: North Carolina -15
[h=3]Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals (-5, 61)[/h]Stanford Steve: Both these teams have underachieved so far this season, and both teams played their best games last week, as Louisville lost 12-7 (yes, they played their best game in a loss in my eyes) to Notre Dame, and FSU beat UNC as a double-digit underdog in a wild game. But the Noles look like a new team since the beginning of the year after changing quarterbacks. The thinking is that both offenses will get it going here. Take the over.
Pick: Over 61 (Louisville 35, Florida State 34)
[h=3]Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans (-13.5, 45)[/h]The Bear: Nothing about the Michigan State offense says lay 13.5. I guess, honestly, nothing about the State University of New Jersey says grab the points, either. But like Arkansas, Rutgers has a new head coach and potential impact transfers at QB and WR. That just might mean a surprising level of improvement. I really don't know how big of a talent gap there is between these two teams, and I'm investing with a little blind faith on Greg Schiano and a defense that played OK at times last season, despite one of the worst offenses in the country; Rutgers scored 159 points last year -- 92 came vs. Liberty and UMass. That ain't good. But gimme those points anyway!
Pick: Rutgers +13.5
[h=3]Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Rice Owls (-3, 51.5)[/h]Stanford Steve: The Blue Raiders gave up 492 rush yards to the Mean Green of North Texas. Now, the boys from Murfreesboro face a team in Rice that has a head coach in Mike Bloomgren who will try to find a way to replicate that kind of rush yards at any cost. Rice is playing its first game of the year, and I wonder how much "want" there will be from Middle Tennessee after a 1-5 start to the season. We'll lay the points with the Owls.
Pick: Rice -3 (Rice 31, Middle Tennessee 13)
[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on money line round robin/parlays/straight[/h]Georgia Tech +140
Indiana +200
Purdue +140
San Jose State +220
Rutgers +400
[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Ranked matchups
• There have been 11 ranked matchups this season. Favorites have won 10 of the 11 and are 10-1 ATS. The only upset was Texas A&M's win over Florida two weeks ago.
Little Brown Jug matchup
• Michigan under Jim Harbaugh is 2-12 vs. top 10 and 8-2 vs. No. 11-25 (8-2 both SU and ATS).
• In his past nine games as an underdog, P.J. Fleck is 7-2 straight-up and ATS.
Pitt in good spot?
• Pitt has covered four of the past five times it has faced a ranked Notre Dame team, winning twice outright. Pitt is 4-1 ATS under Pat Narduzzi vs. top-five opponents.
Iowa wins as small favorite
• Purdue had six losses in games decided by four points or fewer in 2018 and 2019. That's tied for the most by any Power 5 team. (K-State also had six.)
• Iowa has won 13 straight games in which it was a favorite of fewer than six points. Its most recent loss in such a game came in 2014 vs. Bo Pelini and Nebraska (37-34). In 11 of those 13 games, the Hawkeyes were favored by 3.5 or less.
Iowa State thrives as underdog
• Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State is 21-8 ATS as an underdog, with eight outright wins. Dating to his time at Toledo, Campbell has covered six straight games versus AP top-10 teams.
Nebraska in trouble
• The Cornhuskers were 0-3 ATS as a 'dog of greater than a TD last year, losing those three games by 16, 27 and 41 points.
Favorite might not suit Michigan State
• Since the start of 2018, Michigan State is 6-11 ATS as a favorite and lost five of those games outright. Even worse, in its past 11 games as a double-digit favorite, MSU is 2-9 ATS and has lost three times outright.
Ole Miss primed for upset of Auburn?
• In his past seven games as an underdog, Lane Kiffin is 5-2 ATS, with two outright wins.
Indiana at a loss but could cover
• Indiana has covered five of its past seven games as an underdog vs. ranked teams. However, Indiana has lost 25 consecutive games straight-up to top-10 teams dating to 2006.
Road unkind to Virginia Tech
• The Hokies are 2-7 ATS with four outright losses in their past nine games as road favorites.
Underdog rule in Virginia-Miami series
• Underdogs have ruled this series since Miami joined the ACC. 'Dogs have covered 13 of the 16 meetings with eight outright wins.
Oklahoma has conflicting trends
• Oklahoma is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games. However, since 2015, OU has been favored by fewer than seven points eight times. OU is 7-0-1 ATS in those eight games, winning all of them on the field.
• Each of TCU's past eight games has been decided by seven points or fewer. The Horned Frogs are 2-6 in those games. TCU is 2-8 in its past 10 games decided by seven points or fewer.
Rotten sandwich?
• Should Kentucky be on upset alert at Missouri this week after upsetting Tennessee last week and hosting Georgia next week?
Clemson favored big over Syracuse
• Since 1996, there have been 10 games involving two Power 5 teams that featured a spread greater than 45 points. Favorites are 3-7 ATS in those 10 games.
Another cover for Cincinnati at SMU?
• Last year, Cincinnati was an underdog three times in AAC play. The Bearcats covered all three games and won one outright.
Boston College plays favorite vs. Georgia Tech
• BC is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as a favorite, losing four outright. The Eagles survived 24-21 earlier this season vs. Texas State as a 21.5-point favorite.
Edge to North Carolina vs. NC State
• In the past 10 years, there have been five games between teams ranked outside the top 10 with a spread greater than 14 points. Favorites have covered four of the five, including all three of the games the past three years.
Largest spread in ranked matchup between two teams outside top 10 (past three years):
2019: No. 13 Utah (-15) vs. No. 17 Arizona State, won 21-3
2018: No. 11 Washington (-18) vs. No. 20 BYU, won 35-7
2017: No. 11 Ohio State (-18) vs. No. 13 Michigan State, won 48-3
Here is your guide to Week 8 of the season with the two college football analysts. (Games postponed because of COVID-19 have been removed.)
Records
- Stanford Steve (1-2 last week, 12-7 overall)
- The Bear (2-0, 10-7)
[h=2]The plays[/h]
[h=3]No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 58.5) at Indiana Hoosiers[/h]The Bear: We know 2020 has thrown us some challenges and curveballs. We'll know for sure how messed up this year is if the Hoosiers snap their 25-game losing streak to top-10 teams. Kidding aside, I think this is a pretty good spot for Indiana. Penn State is down LB Micah Parsons, WR/KR KJ Hamler and RB Journey Brown. In fact, one might argue that the Hoosiers have the better QB/RB combo in Michael Penix and Stevie Scott. Are Penn State's young WR and RB ready to contribute right off the bat? How will that fill the massive void left by Parsons? In the end, maybe Indiana will do Indiana things and drop a 26th straight to top-10 teams, but I'm grabbing the points here.
Pick: Indiana +6.5
[h=3]No. 23 NC State Wolfpack at No. 14 North Carolina Tar Heels (-15, 61)[/h]Stanford Steve: The line is a little eye-opening, as a one-loss team is getting more than two touchdowns. But I think there will be plenty of points scored in this game. On one side, you have the Tar Heels, who were absolutely brutal in a loss last week in Tallahassee, falling behind 31-7 at halftime and losing 31-28, thanks to a pick-six, two blocked punts and numerous dropped passes. On the other side, you have the Pack, who have exceeded expectations this year by starting 4-1, are averaging more than 33 points per game on offense and give up an average of 31 points per game. We'll take over the total 61 points.
Pick: Over 61 (North Carolina 41, NC State 28)
The Bear: It isn't often that you see a matchup between two teams ranked outside the top 10 with a spread larger than 14 points. There has been one each of the past three years, though, and in all three instances the favorite won and covered easily. I think NC State could be a little dog with fleas-ish this week because of a rivalry game with a large spread and the fact that UNC was upset last week in Tallahassee. But remember, Wolfpack QB Devin Leary is out, and the team's wins are by a field goal over Wake Forest, by a point vs. Pitt in a game in which they allowed more than 500 yards and were outgained by more than 100, at Virginia and vs. Duke (they forced seven turnovers in those two games). I have a feeling UNC will start much faster this week off the loss and with a rivalry game for bragging rights on the slate.
Pick: North Carolina -15
[h=3]Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals (-5, 61)[/h]Stanford Steve: Both these teams have underachieved so far this season, and both teams played their best games last week, as Louisville lost 12-7 (yes, they played their best game in a loss in my eyes) to Notre Dame, and FSU beat UNC as a double-digit underdog in a wild game. But the Noles look like a new team since the beginning of the year after changing quarterbacks. The thinking is that both offenses will get it going here. Take the over.
Pick: Over 61 (Louisville 35, Florida State 34)
[h=3]Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Michigan State Spartans (-13.5, 45)[/h]The Bear: Nothing about the Michigan State offense says lay 13.5. I guess, honestly, nothing about the State University of New Jersey says grab the points, either. But like Arkansas, Rutgers has a new head coach and potential impact transfers at QB and WR. That just might mean a surprising level of improvement. I really don't know how big of a talent gap there is between these two teams, and I'm investing with a little blind faith on Greg Schiano and a defense that played OK at times last season, despite one of the worst offenses in the country; Rutgers scored 159 points last year -- 92 came vs. Liberty and UMass. That ain't good. But gimme those points anyway!
Pick: Rutgers +13.5
[h=3]Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Rice Owls (-3, 51.5)[/h]Stanford Steve: The Blue Raiders gave up 492 rush yards to the Mean Green of North Texas. Now, the boys from Murfreesboro face a team in Rice that has a head coach in Mike Bloomgren who will try to find a way to replicate that kind of rush yards at any cost. Rice is playing its first game of the year, and I wonder how much "want" there will be from Middle Tennessee after a 1-5 start to the season. We'll lay the points with the Owls.
Pick: Rice -3 (Rice 31, Middle Tennessee 13)
[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on money line round robin/parlays/straight[/h]Georgia Tech +140
Indiana +200
Purdue +140
San Jose State +220
Rutgers +400
[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Ranked matchups
• There have been 11 ranked matchups this season. Favorites have won 10 of the 11 and are 10-1 ATS. The only upset was Texas A&M's win over Florida two weeks ago.
Little Brown Jug matchup
• Michigan under Jim Harbaugh is 2-12 vs. top 10 and 8-2 vs. No. 11-25 (8-2 both SU and ATS).
• In his past nine games as an underdog, P.J. Fleck is 7-2 straight-up and ATS.
Pitt in good spot?
• Pitt has covered four of the past five times it has faced a ranked Notre Dame team, winning twice outright. Pitt is 4-1 ATS under Pat Narduzzi vs. top-five opponents.
Iowa wins as small favorite
• Purdue had six losses in games decided by four points or fewer in 2018 and 2019. That's tied for the most by any Power 5 team. (K-State also had six.)
• Iowa has won 13 straight games in which it was a favorite of fewer than six points. Its most recent loss in such a game came in 2014 vs. Bo Pelini and Nebraska (37-34). In 11 of those 13 games, the Hawkeyes were favored by 3.5 or less.
Iowa State thrives as underdog
• Under Matt Campbell, Iowa State is 21-8 ATS as an underdog, with eight outright wins. Dating to his time at Toledo, Campbell has covered six straight games versus AP top-10 teams.
Nebraska in trouble
• The Cornhuskers were 0-3 ATS as a 'dog of greater than a TD last year, losing those three games by 16, 27 and 41 points.
Favorite might not suit Michigan State
• Since the start of 2018, Michigan State is 6-11 ATS as a favorite and lost five of those games outright. Even worse, in its past 11 games as a double-digit favorite, MSU is 2-9 ATS and has lost three times outright.
Ole Miss primed for upset of Auburn?
• In his past seven games as an underdog, Lane Kiffin is 5-2 ATS, with two outright wins.
Indiana at a loss but could cover
• Indiana has covered five of its past seven games as an underdog vs. ranked teams. However, Indiana has lost 25 consecutive games straight-up to top-10 teams dating to 2006.
Road unkind to Virginia Tech
• The Hokies are 2-7 ATS with four outright losses in their past nine games as road favorites.
Underdog rule in Virginia-Miami series
• Underdogs have ruled this series since Miami joined the ACC. 'Dogs have covered 13 of the 16 meetings with eight outright wins.
Oklahoma has conflicting trends
• Oklahoma is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games. However, since 2015, OU has been favored by fewer than seven points eight times. OU is 7-0-1 ATS in those eight games, winning all of them on the field.
• Each of TCU's past eight games has been decided by seven points or fewer. The Horned Frogs are 2-6 in those games. TCU is 2-8 in its past 10 games decided by seven points or fewer.
Rotten sandwich?
• Should Kentucky be on upset alert at Missouri this week after upsetting Tennessee last week and hosting Georgia next week?
Clemson favored big over Syracuse
• Since 1996, there have been 10 games involving two Power 5 teams that featured a spread greater than 45 points. Favorites are 3-7 ATS in those 10 games.
Another cover for Cincinnati at SMU?
• Last year, Cincinnati was an underdog three times in AAC play. The Bearcats covered all three games and won one outright.
Boston College plays favorite vs. Georgia Tech
• BC is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as a favorite, losing four outright. The Eagles survived 24-21 earlier this season vs. Texas State as a 21.5-point favorite.
Edge to North Carolina vs. NC State
• In the past 10 years, there have been five games between teams ranked outside the top 10 with a spread greater than 14 points. Favorites have covered four of the five, including all three of the games the past three years.
Largest spread in ranked matchup between two teams outside top 10 (past three years):
2019: No. 13 Utah (-15) vs. No. 17 Arizona State, won 21-3
2018: No. 11 Washington (-18) vs. No. 20 BYU, won 35-7
2017: No. 11 Ohio State (-18) vs. No. 13 Michigan State, won 48-3
