Newsletters

BuzzKill · Oct 13, 2020

Thanks!

Newsletters
Gaming Today October 14-20 - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZxfuWDzCV-A_wpQk23dDl4_TyVRYbAot/view?usp=sharing
Gold Sheet - https://drive.google.com/file/d/16GbzLLS4e-DudkqUqJK3xCB-26ar4CBb/view
Marc Lawrence's Playbook - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1csPwlV10vxGHOMpXO0NurzU68w7RWTMo/view?usp=sharing
Northcoast Sports Power Sweep - https://drive.google.com/file/d/14dq997y58-l0mok3dDqqawfrbv97B4p3/view
Northcoast Sports Power Plays - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Q1AjKwewrfomlrrCzyoUFxJwajFmrFgA/view
Sports Reporter - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Pmw...ew?usp=sharing

BuzzKill · Oct 14, 2020

BuzzKill · Oct 14, 2020

Newsletter Tracking (through 10/12/2020) from Mendoza Line

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season. There were a few newsletters we didn't see this week, and a few with light action to start the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

CKO (this is only our 2nd time getting CKO this season)
11* (0-2)
10* (3-5)
o/u (2-2)

Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (11-11-1)
NFL Best Bets (11-8-1)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
"Top Play" (1-3)
Upset pick (4-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (3-2)
Awesome Angle (4-2)
Incredible Stat (1-3)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL
5* (3-2)
4* (3-2)
3* (1-4)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (3-4)
2* (2-3)
3* (2-3)
4* (2-1-1)
5* (0-3)

Pointwise NFL
3* (3-2)
4* (6-4)
5* (6-4)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (1-3)
3* (3-5)
2* (3-1)
Underdog Play of the Week (2-3)
Tech Play of the Week (0-1)
Revenge Play of the Week (0-3)
Situational Play of the Week (1-0)
Series Play of the Week (1-2)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (1-4)
3* (2-2)
2* (2-2) (Patriots play postponed)
NFL System play (3-2)
4* Pro Angle (1-2)
3* o/u play (2-3)

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (0-0)
2* (1-1)
1* (7-3)

Powers' Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (0-0)
2* (7-5)
1* (1-1)

Sports Reporter (1-5 overall this week)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (2-9-1)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (5-4)

Red Sheet (1-5 overall this week)
90* (0-0)
89* (3-9)
88* (10-7)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (2-1-1)
NCAA 3* (2-2)
NFL 4* (2-2)
NFL 3* (1-3)

Killer Sports, not including teasers
SBB 4.5* (0-0)
SBB 4* (5-4)
Cajun NCAA (2-3)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet (edited)
3* (6-4)
2* (2-3)
Team Total of the Week (4-1)

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (3-2)
NCAA 4* (7-5)
NFL 4* (2-3)

Gold Sheet (2-7 overall this week)
NCAA Key Releases (3-16)
NFL Key Releases (12-7-0)

ITPB
NCAA (7-14)
NFL (6-4)

microphone · Oct 14, 2020

Winning Points

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FrSEK302y3c41XSQtCydGyJrs-wqugsU

microphone · Oct 14, 2020

Powers' Picks

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TZvjBWd89vbwdZXtEzb-3pv9RjPI1_dx

MarksMoneymakers · Oct 14, 2020

VSIN WEEKLY
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Xgu...ew?usp=sharing

BuzzKill · Oct 14, 2020

BuzzKill · Oct 14, 2020

exploited17 · Oct 14, 2020

Cajun cappers NCAA
is 3-2 not 2-3
Navy vs Tulane W
TCU vs Iowa St W
Kentucky vs MIss St W
N Carolina vs B College L
Clemson vs W Forest L

ryangenero · Oct 14, 2020

FOOTBALL JESUS PODCAST with free picks & Survivor https://www.spreaker.com/user/tobyknapp/fbj2020-nfl-week-six

BuzzKill · Oct 15, 2020

danstiller · Oct 15, 2020

Man rough year all around ... only one with a profit at this time. Maybe the second half will be better.

Giant419 · Oct 15, 2020

[h=1]Week 7 college football best bets: More trouble for Miami?[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (5-0 last week, 10-3 overall), Bill Connelly (1-2, 9-7), Preston Johnson (3-1, 10-8) and David M. Hale (1-1, 8-6) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 7 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).

[h=3]No. 14 BYU Cougars (-5.5, 62.5) at Houston Cougars, Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Kezirian: This should be a thrilling game. Both offenses have the ability to light up the scoreboard, but BYU's physicality could pose problems for Houston. I trust the Cougars will be able to score at ease because pretty much anyone can score against Dana Holgorsen's defense. Plus, with the platform of national television on a Friday night, I think the BYU coaching staff will do everything it can to pad the stats of QB Zach Wilson. He's already a pro prospect, but perhaps continuing his current pace of stats and an undefeated season might get him an invitation to New York as a Heisman finalist. That's a huge recruiting tool for a program like BYU, so I expect the Cougars to capitalize on the opportunity.
Pick: BYU team total over 33.5 (DraftKings)

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[h=3]No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-27, 64) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, noon ET (on ABC)[/h]Kezirian: One could argue this is a flat spot for Clemson, which is why I am isolating the team total rather than laying 27 points. The Tigers' offense should have no issues against a Tech defense that has been torched by nearly every opponent. Even Syracuse scored 37 points. Additionally, Yellow Jackets freshman quarterback Jeff Sims has had some nice moments, but he's also a bit reckless with the ball (eight interceptions). Clemson's defense will give the offense some short fields. Plus, coach Dabo Swinney showed against Miami that he wants his second unit running the offense as much as possible, even trying to score in the final seconds of a blowout.
Pick: Clemson team total over 44.5 (DraftKings)

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[h=3]No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats (-3, 44) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane, noon ET (on ESPN2)[/h]Connelly: Ladies and gentlemen, the best defensive battle the AAC could possibly produce! Cincinnati has allowed just 12.3 points per game, while Tulsa has managed to allow just 42 points total despite playing at Oklahoma State and Central Florida. (SP+ is slow to recognize the Golden Hurricane's defensive awesomeness because they've played just two games, but it looks like they're for real -- 11th in points allowed per drive, 16th in success rate.)
Even acknowledging Tulsa's defensive prowess, this is an awfully friendly line. Cincinnati kept a solid Army team at arm's length and manhandled Austin Peay and South Florida. The Bearcats allow almost no big plays, and while their offense isn't amazing, it's dramatically more consistent and efficient than Tulsa's. Tulsa is quite competitive this year, but SP+ projects Cincinnati by 8.7, and that sounds more likely than a three-point game to me.
Pick: Cincinnati -3
Hale: Yes, the Cincinnati offense is a bit of a mixed bag. And sure, Tulsa can play enough defense to keep this one close. But the Bearcats' defense is an elite unit, and few teams manage to get anything going early against it. In Cincinnati's past nine games, it has allowed a grand total of 50 first-half points -- with nearly half that coming in a rematch against Memphis in last year's AAC title game. Add in something of a hangover effect for Tulsa following the upset of Central Florida -- after beating UCF last season, Tulsa suffered a disastrous loss against Houston -- and you've got a recipe for an ugly game with few points, but enough for a Bearcats cover.
Pick: Cincinnati -1.5 first half

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[h=3]Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 13 Miami Hurricanes (-13, 48), noon ET (on ACCN)[/h]Hale: Fading the Panthers when they were heavy favorites was easy money, but this line feels like an overreaction in the other direction. Pitt doesn't often win big, but it's rarely blown out. Meanwhile, Miami is coming off a deflating loss to Clemson and could be without tight end Brevin Jordan. A brief look at the history of ACC teams following a loss to Clemson shows a trend toward hangovers -- the past three ACC teams to lose to Clemson lost their next game, too -- and Pitt can do a lot of the same things on defense that Clemson found to be so successful against Miami. Pitt might not win this one outright -- and it's worth monitoring the health of quarterback Kenny Pickett -- but the line here is simply too big to ignore.
Pick: Pittsburgh +13

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[h=3]Liberty Flames (-3.5, 52.5) at Syracuse Orange, noon ET (on ESPN3)[/h]Hale: Syracuse is not very good, and now it is without starting quarterback Tommy DeVito, likely for the season, and star safety Andre Cisco, who has opted out after an injury. Liberty is 4-0, and Syracuse just lost to a winless Duke team, which is how you end up with an ACC team as a home underdog against an independent. But it was just a year ago that Syracuse dominated Liberty 24-0 (with coach Hugh Freeze watching from a press-box hospital bed), and that Syracuse team was bad, too. Does the QB change hurt? Maybe, but it isn't like DeVito was playing lights out either. And let's look at Liberty's four wins: an FCS opponent and teams ranked 104, 120 and 126 in our FPI. Syracuse is not good, but it's also not UL Monroe or North Alabama. The Orange will win this one outright.
Pick: Syracuse +3.5
Johnson: The news of DeVito missing the game caused a reaction in the market for this total (formerly 55.5). I'm not sure it's warranted. QB Rex Culpepper will likely be the new starter, and as much as coach Dino Babers loved DeVito, I don't know anybody else who thought DeVito was the right guy. The drop-off to Culpepper is minimal at best, and considering the Orange defense just gave up 645 yards and 38 points to Duke despite being gifted four turnovers in the game, I'm diving in to take over at a cheap price. The Flames' offense is averaging over 35 points per game with starting QB Malik Willis and his next-level rushing addition (340 yards and four touchdowns in three starts). This should be lined 57, and the loss of DeVito isn't going to scare me off of a discrepancy this big now.
Pick: Over 52.5

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[h=3]Ole Miss Rebels (-2.5, 76) at Arkansas Razorbacks, 3:30 p.m. ET (on SECN)[/h]Kezirian: This is a situational play. Lane Kiffin and the Rebels put everything into last week's game against Alabama. Now, Ole Miss hits the road for Little Rock with what I would anticipate is minimal excitement and focus. Plus, Kiffin hinted that his team is dealing with positive COVID-19 tests, which can really hurt a thin team like Mississippi.
Meanwhile, the Razorbacks have looked much better than many expected. Feleipe Franks has already led the Razorbacks to a win at Mississippi State and they were robbed of another win by a missed call at Auburn. This line has been bet down from -3, and I agree with the move.
Pick: Arkansas +2.5

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[h=3]Duke Blue Devils at NC State Wolfpack (-4.5, 59.5), 3:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)[/h]Johnson: Let's start with the home team that we backed last week on the road against Virginia. The Wolfpack are now 2-0 after Devin Leary took over under center, with upset wins outright over Pittsburgh and UVA. He has looked extremely crisp against two defenses that rank No. 7 and No. 30, respectively, in defensive efficiency. Head coach Dave Doeren took his foot off of the pedal after NCST jumped out to a 24-0 lead; otherwise, the offensive numbers would have been even stronger. I'm thrilled to back a Leary-led offense again, this time against the weakest defense he will have faced this season.
But this isn't a play laying the points on the Wolfpack now at -4.5. I bet the over 59.5. The Blue Devils' offense hasn't been able to get out of its own way with turnovers this season, but it finally put things together against Syracuse and gained 645 yards on offense -- the most ever in the David Cutcliffe era (2008 to present).
My personal projection is 63.7, and I was surprised to see this move down some earlier in the week. We get two teams that rank among the top 30 in pace of play, and the weather forecast is clear. Count me in.
Pick: Over 59.5

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[h=3]Virginia Cavaliers (-2.5, 61) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 4 p.m. ET (on ACCN)[/h]Connelly: Wake Forest games guarantee lots of efficiency, both for the Demon Deacons (19th in success rate) and their opponents (72nd in success rate allowed). If they can't knock Virginia off schedule and force the Cavaliers to pass, this game could slip away from them whether the Cavaliers have Brennan Armstrong (in concussion protocol) or backup Lindell Stone at quarterback.
Really, that goes both ways. Wake's own run game has been delightful -- Kenneth Walker III and Christian Beal-Smith are combining for about 150 rushing yards per game. But UVA's run defense is outstanding, and Wake isn't much better than UVA in the passing department. I think UVA is at least as likely or more likely to knock Wake off course than the other way around. Between that, SP+'s projection (Virginia by 6.2) and a favorite-friendly line, give me the Fightin' Bronco Mendenhalls.
Pick: Virginia -2.5

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[h=3]Boston College Eagles at Virginia Tech Hokies (-12, 62), 8 p.m. ET (on ACCN)[/h]Johnson: The Hokies have gotten progressively healthier each week as players return after a slew of quarantines forced them out early in the season. QB Hendon Hooker made his first appearance taking over during the UNC game and ignited a Tech offense that was struggling to score. It was no surprise that he led them on three touchdown drives after the Hokies had most of their success a year ago with Hooker under center as well.
Boston College is 3-1 despite being outgained this season and its inability to run the football (1.9 yards per rush this season ranks dead last in the country). The Eagles are a good regression candidate, and I will happily fade them with a Hokies team that hasn't played their best -- or healthiest -- football yet. This should be closer to a 14-point discrepancy in the point spread, and the upside with Hooker at quarterback and other pieces returning certainly favors Tech.
Pick: Virginia Tech -12

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[h=3]Florida International Panthers at Charlotte 49ers (-7, 53.5), 8 p.m. ET (on ESPNU)[/h]Connelly: Florida International has an explosive run game -- D'vonte Price and Shaun Peterson Jr. have 411 yards (8.4 per carry) in just two games -- but can't pass even a little bit. Charlotte has held teams to a low completion rate but can't even slightly stop the run. If Charlotte can't properly take advantage of FIU's biggest weakness, then this game could become a bit of a track meet, and it might be difficult for the 49ers. SP+ says Charlotte by 4.1, something in the neighborhood of 32-28, which would be FIU's third straight narrow (and rather high-scoring) defeat.
Pick: Florida International +7

Giant419 · Oct 15, 2020

[h=1]'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 7 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]
College football is underway in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on. Both of the guys went 3-0 last week. Can they keep their run going?
Here is your guide to Week 7 of the season with the two college football analysts.
Records

Stanford Steve (3-0 last week, 11-5 overall)
The Bear (3-0, 8-7)

[h=2]The plays[/h]

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[h=3]No. 17 SMU Mustangs (-6.5, 64) at Tulane Green Wave[/h]The Bear: I just can't help myself. Tulane's game last week at Houston was just a weird game. Turnovers, non-offensive TD, unusual offensive struggles for Tulane and, yes, another big blown lead by the Green Wave. The last time Tulane blew a big lead, it bounced back the following week with a dominant win over Southern Miss. Now it gets an undefeated -- and shorthanded -- SMU team, as the Ponies will be without WR Reggie Roberson Jr. and RB TJ McDaniel. Maybe Shane Buechele will keep the offense rolling, but those are two huge losses and I will look to take the points and Tulane, which outgained SMU last season in a game that was 21-17 in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Tulane +6.5

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[h=3]Boston College Eagles at No. 23 Virginia Tech Hokies (-12, 62)[/h]The Bear: I've been on the Eagles a couple of times this season and they have come through. But I sense they might be trending toward public 'dog this week. People are comparing scores between how the two teams have fared vs. Duke and UNC in completely different settings and situations -- and that's dangerous. The Hokies' secondary is going to have to be better and hopefully it will get some players back, but I expect Virginia Tech to again score a lot of points and post a convincing win.
Pick: Virginia Tech -12

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[h=3]Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers (-22, 53)[/h]Stanford Steve: Just because of who the opponent is, we will take the Mountaineers.
Pick: West Virginia -22 (West Virginia 38, Kansas 10)

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[h=3]UCF Knights (-3, 73.5) at Memphis Tigers[/h]Stanford Steve: Both teams are coming off a loss, both are coming off of a bye and both average more than 500 yards a game on offense. This should be an exciting game. As much as I like Tigers QB Brady White, I like Knights QB Dillon Gabriel more. I think UCF outscores the home team. We'll lay the three points.
Pick: UCF -3 (UCF 45, Memphis 38)

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[h=3]North Texas Mean Green at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-6.5, 72)[/h]Stanford Steve: I just feel like the boys from Murfreesboro should not be favored by any points, so we'll take those points.
Pick: North Texas +6.5 (North Texas 31, Middle Tennessee 30)

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[h=3]Florida International Panthers at Charlotte 49ers (-7, 54)[/h]Stanford Steve: The feeling here is that these two programs are going in opposite directions. The 49ers are on their way up and the Panthers have kind of plateaued. Really like what Will Healy is doing in Charlotte, so we'll lay the points.
Pick: Charlotte -7 (Charlotte 38, FIU 20)

[h=2]The Bear's money line parlay[/h]Five-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current odds, $100 wins $146.
Virginia Tech -430
Miami -500
Temple -400
UAB -500
Notre Dame -900

[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on money line/round-robin parlays[/h]Tulane +200
Mississippi State +210
Tulsa +145
Georgia +160
Kentucky +190

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]The Tide have struggled at home when favored by less than a touchdown. Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
Upset alert for Alabama?
• Under Nick Saban, Alabama has been less than a 7-point favorite at home five times. The Tide has lost four of the games outright and pushed the other.
2019: -5 vs. LSU, lost 46-41
2011: -5 vs. LSU, lost 9-6
2010: -4 vs. Auburn, lost 28-27
2007: -3.5 vs. Georgia, lost 26-23
2007: -3 vs. Arkansas, won 41-38
• The past eight times Alabama was a favorite of less than seven points, the Tide are just 3-5 straight up and covered only once. Alabama is a 4-point favorite against Georgia.
2019: -3.5 vs. Auburn, lost by 3
2019: -5 vs. LSU, lost by 5
2018: -5.5 vs. Clemson, lost by 28
2017: -3.5 vs. Georgia, won by 3
2017: -3.5 vs. Clemson, won by 18
2017: -5 vs. Auburn, lost by 12
2016: -6 vs. Clemson, lost by 4
2015: -6.5 vs. Clemson, won by 5
• Georgia is 10-3 ATS in its past 13 games vs. top-10 opponents. All five games vs. top-10 opponents since the start of last year went under the total.
Liberty favored at Syracuse
• Since 2015, there have been 17 non-Power 5 teams favored on the road vs. a Power 5 team. Those 17 teams are 12-5 SU and 10-5-2 ATS. Last year, Liberty was a 7.5-road favorite at Rutgers and lost by 10. The Flames are a 3.5-point favorite at Syracuse.
Boston College covers in conference play
• Boston College is 3-0 ATS with two outright wins as a 'dog this season. The Eagles are 20-5-1 ATS in their past 26 ACC games. BC is 17-2-1 in its past 20 games with 11 outright wins as an underdog in ACC play.
• Virginia Tech is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as a double-digit favorite. Tech is a 12-point favorite against BC.
Tennessee struggles as favorite
• Tennessee is 3-11 ATS in its past 14 games as a favorite vs. FBS opponents. The past two meetings involving Tennessee and Kentucky have seen 30 and 31 points scored. Kentucky has scored 7 and 13. Tennessee is favored by six on Saturday with a total of 46.
Cincinnati in a good spot?
• Tulsa is 8-2 ATS with three outright wins in its past 10 games as an underdog. Last year, Tulsa lost 24-13 at Cincinnati as a 16-point 'dog.
• In the past 10 years, 14 top-10 teams have been favored by three points or less on the road vs. an unranked team. Those 14 are 10-4 ATS and SU. Three of the past four to be in this spot lost outright. Seven of the past nine games in this situation have been one-score games. Cincinnati is a 3-point favorite against Tulsa.
Massachusetts a big underdog as usual
• This is the 15th straight game UMass has been an underdog vs. an FBS opponent. It's the fifth time in the past eight games the Minutemen are at least a 30-point 'dog. (They are 31-point underdogs to Georgia Southern.)
UCF not covering of late
• UCF is 4-9 ATS in its past 13 games. The Knights are a 3.5-point favorite at Memphis.
Florida State in unfamiliar territory
• In its past six games as a double-digit underdog, Florida State has covered once -- last week at Notre Dame -- and lost by an average of 31.6 points. The Seminoles are double-digit underdogs to North Carolina this week.
• Since 1978 through Nov. 4, 2017, Florida State was a double-digit underdog 10 times in 497 games. This will be the ninth time in 35 games since Nov. 11, 2017 that FSU is a double-digit 'dog. This is the third straight FBS opponent to which FSU is a double-digit 'dog.
• The last time FSU was a double-digit home 'dog was 2018 vs. Clemson when the Noles lost 59-10 as an 18.5-point underdog. That game was also made famous by the shirtless fan at the top of Doak Campbell Stadium reading a book.
• FSU as a double-digit home underdog since 1978: lost to Clemson 59-10 as an 18.5-point underdog in 2018 and lost 45-15 to Florida in 2008 as a 16.5-point underdog.
Miami turning the tables
• Last year, the Hurricanes were 0-4 ATS with three outright losses as a double-digit favorite. This year, the Canes have covered both games in which they have been a double-digit favorite. Entering the season, Miami was 2-14 ATS in its previous 16 games as at least a 7-point favorite.
• Pittsburgh was a 12-point underdog when it upset undefeated Miami in 2017. Miami is favored by 13 this time.
NC State a first-time favorite
• This is the first time this season NC State is favored (-4.5 vs. Duke). The Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their past five games as a favorite and has lost three of the past five outright.
Beware Tulane at home ATS
• Tulane has covered its past five games as a home 'dog and won two of those games outright. The Green Wave a nearly a touchdown underdog to SMU.
South Carolina struggles vs. ranked teams
• Under Will Muschamp, South Carolina is 2-16 vs. ranked teams (1-8 at home, 4-5 ATS at home). South Carolina is a field goal underdog to Auburn.

danstiller · Oct 15, 2020

GRIDIRON GOLD SHEET

BuzzKill · Oct 15, 2020

Shua12 · Oct 16, 2020

Action network podcast college FB bettingpreview comes out on Friday mornings, with Stuckey (from across the street at blankets) and Collin Wilson
good listen