Newsletters

microphone · Oct 7, 2020

Marc Lawrence Playbook Midweek Alert

https://drive.google.com/file/d/133qIIb-HNxlxrdb9AXzZcwPp2UEF1YXE

BuzzKill · Oct 7, 2020

Powers' Picks - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fO4zdzX2F-wF0rCgHSmDnj_D2zUE1z-a/view

BuzzKill · Oct 7, 2020

Winning Points - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TGgGC9nKG3KHfuMrsvrGAHOnCYdErxvu/view

ryangenero · Oct 7, 2020

FOOTBALL JESUS PODCAST WEEK 5 https://www.spreaker.com/user/tobyknapp/fbj-nfl-2020-week-5

BuzzKill · Oct 8, 2020

BuzzKill · Oct 8, 2020

Thanks!

Killer Sports - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bNwSbe6g90-N9BvuZRIA-s-04BXPwtCm/view?usp=sharing

BuzzKill · Oct 8, 2020

Newsletter Tracking (through 10/05/2020) from Mendoza Line

Not every newsletter gets posted every week, and I'll try to note when the record doesn't include every week of the season. There were a few newsletters we didn't see this week, and a few with light action to start the season.

Another note is that the grading is based on the line indicated in the newsletter at the time of publication, not the closing line. Many of these newsletters will claim a win against the best available line as it moves throughout the week, but these records reflect the outcome against the line they were willing to make a play on in their newsletter.

CKO (no CKO this week)
11* (0-1)
10* (1-3)
o/u (1-1)

Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (9-8-1) (USM pushed the total, Troy was PPD)
NFL Best Bets (9-6-1)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NCAA
"Top Play" (1-2)
Upset pick (3-1)
Betcha Didn't Know (2-2)
Awesome Angle (4-1)
Incredible Stat (1-2)

Marc Lawrence's Playbook NFL
5* (2-2)
4* (2-2)
3* (0-4)

Pointwise NCAA
1* (3-2)
2* (1-3)
3* (2-2)
4* (1-1-1)
5* (0-2)

Pointwise NFL
3* (3-1)
4* (5-3)
5* (5-3)

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (1-2)
3* (2-4)
2* (2-1)
Underdog Play of the Week (2-2)
Tech Play of the Week (0-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (0-2)
Situational Play of the Week (1-0)
Series Play of the Week (1-1)

Power Sweep NFL
4* (1-3)
3* (2-1) (NE +7 canceled)
2* (2-2)
NFL System play (2-2)
4* Pro Angle (1-1)
3* o/u play (2-2)

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (0-0)
2* (0-1)
1* (5-3)

Powers' Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (0-0)
2* (7-4)
1* (0-0)

Sports Reporter (0-4 overall this week)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (2-5-1)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-1)
NFL Best Bets (4-3)

Red Sheet
90* (0-0)
89* (3-7)
88* (9-4)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (1-1-1)
NCAA 3* (2-1)
NFL 4* (1-2)
NFL 3* (1-2)

Killer Sports, not including teasers
SBB 4.5* (0-0)
SBB 4* (4-3)
Cajun NCAA (1-3)
Pick 60 Play of the Week (0-0)

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet (edited) (4-0 overall this week)
3* (5-3)
2* (2-2)
Team Total of the Week (3-1)

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (2-2)
NCAA 4* (6-2)
NFL 4* (2-2)

Gold Sheet (1-6 overall this week)
NCAA Key Releases (3-11)
NFL Key Releases (10-5-0)

ITPB
NCAA (5-10)
NFL (5-3)

BuzzKill · Oct 8, 2020

Giant419 · Oct 8, 2020

[h=1]'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 6 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]

ESPN Images

College football is underway in 2020, and it's unlike any season we have had before. One thing is familiar: "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica breaking down games as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Here is your guide to Week 6 of the season with the two college football analysts.
Records

Stanford Steve (3-0 last week, 8-5 overall)
The Bear (1-0, 5-7)

[h=2]The plays[/h]

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[h=3]No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-24, 70) at Ole Miss Rebels[/h]Stanford Steve: Let's just say the foot will be on the gas for both teams in this one. You will hear over a hundred times this week how Nick Saban is 20-0 versus former assistants after last week's thrashing of Jimbo Fisher ... again. Up next, The Lane Train -- and Kiffin will do anything to try and keep up on the scoreboard with the Tide. We'll take the over, hoping the conditions stay decent in Oxford.
Pick: Over 70 (Alabama 58, Ole Miss 24)

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[h=3]No. 14 Tennessee Volunteers at No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs (-12, 43)[/h]The Bear: The Vols have the longest winning streak in the SEC, but this is clear step up from the teams Tennessee has faced during the eight-game win streak (South Carolina twice, Missouri twice, UAB, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Indiana). Yes, you can only play who is on the schedule, but the fact Tennessee has dropped 33 straight to Top 10 teams certainly is a factor in my thought process here. Yes, this might be the best Tennessee team in some time, and, yes, this might be a sandwich-type spot for the Bulldogs, but the Georgia defense is by far the best unit on the field and who I will back here.
Pick: Georgia -12

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[h=3]No. 4 Florida Gators (-6.5, 57) at Texas A&M Aggies[/h]The Bear: Texas A&M's failures in these ranked showdowns are well documented, and coming off a blowout loss at Alabama, people probably find it hard to back the Aggies, especially given the stunning efficiency of the Gators offense. A&M has had its struggles holding on to the ball in the first two games, and the defense had its difficulty versus Mac Jones and Bama, so it's fair to wonder how they can slow down the Gators. The Aggies' best defense is their offense. South Carolina was a combined 11-for-23 on third and fourth downs against Florida; if the Aggies have that kind of success, they have a shot to pull the upset.
Pick: Texas A&M +6.5

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[h=3]No. 22 Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners (-2.5, 72)[/h]Stanford Steve: You are a great liar if you say you have a great feel for how this game will play out. I'll just trust Lincoln Riley to figure things out to get a much-needed win after two straight losses, in which the Sooners had fourth-quarter leads. I think Oklahoma will make a big effort to try and get the run game going and keep the ball out of Sam Ehlinger's hands.
Pick: Oklahoma -2.5 (Oklahoma 38, Texas 34)
The Bear: The fact OU had a huge lead on K-State and blew a fourth-quarter lead at Iowa State shows that the Sooners easily could be unbeaten right now. Spencer Rattler played a good game last week, but the defense just can't continue allowing almost eight yards a play and missing tackles. Texas really should have lost in Lubbock, and while the Longhorns have done very well in the underdog role in this rivalry lately, I think OU is the better team here and will save its chances at another Big 12 title.
Pick: Oklahoma -2.5

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[h=3]Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (-2, 58)[/h]Stanford Steve: Kentucky has had some wild things happen during its 0-2 start to the season, like an extra point missed in overtime to lose, which was preceded by a running back celebrating too early and getting tackled short of the goal line -- and then, two plays later, fumbling the ball away. Kentucky also blew a double-digit lead last week. I think Mark Stoops has the respect of his team, and the Bulldogs will regroup to win and cover versus Mississippi State. I'll lay the points.
Pick: Kentucky -2 (Kentucky 31, Miss. State 20)

[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play on money line/round-robin parlays[/h]

Texas A&M +200
Western Kentucky +210
Boston College +190
Miami +450

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Prior to the year, people wondered how games would be altered by lack of fans during the coronavirus pandemic. Would underdogs have a better chance? Would road teams have an edge? Well, here's what we have seen thus far: There have been 51 FBS vs. FBS games where a team has been favored by double digits. Underdogs are 34-17 against the spread and have 11 outright wins!
Home teams are 44-45 ATS in FBS vs. FBS games, so there has been very little, if any home-field edge -- especially for favorites. Home underdogs are 22-11 ATS with eight outright wins.
[h=3]Florida State at Notre Dame[/h]-- This is the first time Florida State is a double-digit underdog vs. two straight FBS opponents.
-- In its past five games as a double-digit underdog, Florida State hasn't covered any of the five and lost by an average of 34.8 PPG. FSU has been outscored 238-64 in those five games.
-- From 1978 through Nov. 4, 2017, Florida State was a double-digit underdog 10 times in 497 games. This will be the eighth time in 34 games since Nov. 11, 2017 that FSU is a double-digit dog.
[h=3]Miami at Clemson[/h]-- Clemson is currently a 14-point favorite over Miami. The last time Clemson closed as low as a 14-point favorite at home was in 2017, when the Tigers beat Georgia Tech 24-10 as a 14-point favorite. The last time the Tigers closed as less than a 14-point favorite was in 2017 versus Auburn, when Clemson won 14-6 as a six-point favorite. And the last time Clemson closed less than a 14-point favorite in an ACC game was the 2016 Louisville game, which was won by Clemson 42-36 as a one-point dog.
-- There have been 10 top-seven regular-season matchups with a spread of at least 14 points. Underdogs are 6-3-1 ATS in those 10 games. The largest upset is Tennessee's win at Florida in 2001 as a 17.5-point favorite.
[h=3]Oklahoma vs. Texas[/h]-- The last time Oklahoma was favored by less than 7.5 points vs Texas was 2012 when the Sooners won 63-21 vs the Longhorns as a 3.5-point favorite.
-- This would be the 12th straight year Texas is an underdog vs Oklahoma. The Longhorns are 7-1 ATS with three outright win in the last eight meetings.
[h=3]Tennessee at Georgia[/h]- Tennessee is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games vs Top 10 opponents. The Vols have lost 33 straight vs Top 10 opponents dating back to a 2006 win vs Georgia. The 33 losses have been by an average of 25.9 PPG. Only six have been decided by single digits.
Most Consecutive Losses vs Top 10 Teams - Active Streaks
Tennessee 33
Indiana 25
Wake Forest 21
Vanderbilt 19
[h=3]Florida at Texas A&M[/h]-- Since 2000, 55 teams have played a home game as a ranked team versus a top-five opponent. Texas A&M is the only one of the 16 to play at least four and not have a single win (0-5).
-- Under Dan Mullen, the Gators are 7-1-1 ATS on the road and a perfect 7-0 straight-up as a road favorite, with every win coming by at least eight points.
[h=3]Texas A&M at Iowa State[/h]-- Iowa State is just 2-8 ATS as a double-digit favorite since the start of 2018. The Cyclones have lost two of their past three games as a double-digit favorite outright.
[h=3]Kansas State at TCU[/h]-- K-State is 13-3 ATS with eight outright wins in its past 16 games as an underdog. Under Chris Klieman, the Wildcats have been an underdog nine times and won six of them outright.
[h=3]Duke at Syracuse[/h]-- Under David Cutcliffe, Duke has played 22 games in which the spread ranged from -3 to +3. The Blue Devils are 15-6-1 ATS in those 22 games.

Giant419 · Oct 8, 2020

[h=1]Week 6 college football best bets[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian (2-2 last week, 5-3 overall), Bill Connelly (2-1, 8-5), Preston Johnson (6-2, 7-7), Seth Walder (0-0, 3-2) and David M. Hale (2-1, 7-5) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 6 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday morning (unless otherwise indicated).

[h=3]Tulane Green Wave at Houston Cougars (-6.5, 60), Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Kezirian: I was very close to pulling the trigger on Houston, as teams making their season debut against an opponent already with a game under its belt are 17-4 ATS this season and 85-59-2 ATS since 2000. However, I do not trust Dana Holgersen and doubt the Cougars have the defense to stop a Tulane offense that may have found its quarterback. Freshman Michael Pratt came off the bench last week and led the Green Wave to a comeback win (66-24 over Southern Miss). I am on the over because Tulane has no film on Houston's offense from this season, but the Cougars haven't showed any ability to play defense under Holgersen. This one should get into the 60s.
Pick: Over 60.5

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[h=3]Louisville Cardinals (-4.5, 64) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Friday, 7 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Johnson: I anointed Georgia Tech for its win over Florida State too soon -- the Seminoles followed that up with a 42-point loss to Miami, and then trailed for the majority of their game against Jacksonville State. The Yellow Jackets wound up facing what we believed to be a really strong Central Florida team and lost by 28 -- UCF followed that up with an outright home loss to Tulsa as a three-touchdown favorite. Georgia Tech also lost to a Syracuse squad that couldn't score on North Carolina or Pittsburgh. I've made adjustments, and with Malik Cunningham looking like he is a go under center for Louisville, I think the -4.5 is a few points short.
Pick: Louisville -4.5

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[h=3]No. 4 Florida Gators (-6.5, 57) at No. 21 Texas A&M Aggies, noon ET (on ESPN)[/h]Connelly: Texas A&M has begun the season with two disappointing performances. The Aggies were unlucky to beat Vanderbilt by only five, but if Vandy is as bad as the numbers suggest, all the bad luck in the world shouldn't have kept the score anywhere close. And after tying Alabama at 14 apiece last week, the Aggies ran out of tricks, giving up a 31-3 run to the Crimson Tide.
At some point we might start to see the A&M team we thought we'd see this year, but the Aggies bear the burden of proof. They've fallen to 29th in SP+, and while Florida's defense has held the Gators back a bit more than expected, they are still eighth in SP+, which projects them with a 9.7-point advantage in this game. That's not a huge disagreement with the line, especially if home field has a bigger advantage again, but 6.5 points is a favorite-friendly line. We'll call this a "prove it" pick for A&M -- the Aggies have to prove they're better than what they've shown so far, and I'm not going to wait around for them to do so.
Pick: Florida -6.5

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[h=3]NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers (-8.5, 60), noon ET (on ACCN)[/h]Johnson: I still think Virginia losing quarterback Bryce Perkins is being underrated in the market. Maybe NC State's wins over Wake Forest and Pittsburgh (as a two-touchdown underdog) last week are being underrated instead, or maybe it's a combination of both. But give me the Wolfpack getting 8.5 points. I anticipate this one only moving one way, so grab it before we potentially see it settle at +7 -- which is where my personal projection has this game lined.
Pick: NC State +8.5

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[h=3]South Carolina Gamecocks (-13.5, 41.5) at Vanderbilt Commodores, noon ET (on SECN)[/h]Connelly: These teams are each 0-2, but a combined 3-1 against the spread, though obviously that comes with context. The lines have been basically dead-on with South Carolina's two games. Vanderbilt covered easily against Texas A&M but didn't come close against LSU. The Gamecocks have slid to 44th in SP+, though, primarily because of a dreadfully inefficient defense. They're 73rd of 74 teams in success rate allowed, and it's balanced: 68th against the run, 71st against the pass.
I'm confident in South Carolina for two reasons, though. First, there's nothing saying Vanderbilt (68th in success rate on offense) can even begin to take advantage of the Gamecocks' defensive issues. Second, SP+ disagrees with the line by nearly five points -- it projects a 17.8-point Gamecocks advantage. Plus, even if home field is worth more than one point (the current SP+ home-field adjustment), that probably doesn't apply to Vanderbilt. At least, it rarely has before.
Pick: South Carolina -13.5

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[h=3]No. 22 Texas Longhorns vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-2.5, 72) at Cotton Bowl, noon ET[/h]Walder: There's basically three components to the eight-point disagreement between the line and the FPI, which favors Texas by 6. In the preseason, the FPI liked the Sooners better than the Longhorns, but only by a hair -- less than a point. Then each played a nonconference game -- Texas exceeded expectations in a 59-3 win over UTEP, while Oklahoma fell a little short of expectations by only beating Missouri State by 48. The Longhorns therefore moved ahead of the Sooners.
Oklahoma was further downgraded following its loss to Kansas State. Texas was downgraded that week too, after a seven-point victory over Texas Tech, but -- critically -- not as harshly. Altogether, that's how the FPI ends up with Texas so far ahead of Oklahoma (each team's rating took a beating last week, but equally).
One could quibble with the second section. Should the Sooners really be penalized for only beating Missouri State by 48? Maybe not. At the same time, there is predictive power in performances against vastly inferior opponents, as long as the quality of opponent is controlled for. But even if that game had never happened, the FPI would still favor Texas by more than a field goal this weekend.
Pick: Texas +2

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[h=3]Duke Blue Devils (-2.5, 51.5) at Syracuse Orange, 12:30 p.m. ET (on ESPN3)[/h]Connelly: I checked this line three times to make sure it was correct. Syracuse is by no means a good team -- the Orange are currently 86th in SP+, but they've lost to two good teams by a combined 36 points, and per my postgame win expectancy model (which takes all the key predictive stats from a given game, tosses them into the air and says "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time"), their 37-20 win over Georgia Tech was more like a 50-50 toss-up.
Duke, though? Eighty-eighth in SP+ and 0-4. The Blue Devils needed a touchdown off a muffed punt to beat the spread against a Virginia Tech team that was missing its starting secondary due to positive COVID-19 tests and contact tracing. Duke's defense is decent, and its offense found a rhythm late against the depleted Hokies' defense, but I'm utterly baffled by them being favored. SP+ gives Syracuse a 1.1-point advantage, using a one-point home-field adjustment. (It bears mentioning that there actually has been a home-field advantage for teams recently, so I might end up ratcheting that adjustment up a bit.)
Pick: Syracuse +2.5

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[h=3]No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-24, 70) at Ole Miss Rebels, 6 p.m. ET (on ESPN)[/h]Kezirian: The play is pretty apparent, as the Alabama offense looks nearly as explosive as last season. The Crimson Tide have scored 28 and 35 points in the first half so far. Nick Saban called off the troops after halftime in their opener, but I doubt he will have that luxury against Ole Miss. Say what you want about Lane Kiffin, but the guy can coach offense. Saban certainly knows that about his former assistant. The Rebels showed an ability to move the ball against Florida's highly regarded defense. The Tide should hang 50 points, and Saban might actually enjoy doing it. My only caveat is weather, so I am keeping an eye on the forecast. However, this pick was due on Wednesday, so I am inserting some protection and will discuss further on Daily Wager and Twitter. Hey, it's 2020.
Pick: Alabama over 47.5 (at DraftKings)

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[h=3]Temple Owls (-3.5, 50.5) at Navy Midshipmen, 6 p.m. ET[/h]Hale: Temple topped 30 points in a game twice last season -- against FCS Bucknell and a horrible UConn team. Now the Owls make their 2020 debut with ample rust to shake off following an extended wait due to the coronavirus pandemic. Navy, meanwhile, has played one half of good football against Tulane, but the rest has been a slog. Setting aside the miraculous second-half comeback on Sept. 19, the Midshipmen have scored a grand total of 10 points in 10 quarters, including just 20 first downs on 31 drives. Yes, all that probably portends a shootout because nothing in 2020 makes sense, but we'll go with the safe approach and take the under with two bad offenses.
Pick: Under 50.5

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[h=3]No. 7 Miami Hurricanes at No. 1 Clemson Tigers (-14, 63), 7:30 p.m. ET (on ABC)[/h]Hale: Here's a familiar storyline: Clemson opens a season as a prohibitive playoff favorite. The world expects dominance. Instead, the first few weeks of the season give us something ... less. Sure, the Tigers keep winning. Since 2015, they're 25-0 through the first week of October. But what Dabo Swinney's teams don't do is blow the doors off opponents, put up style points or play to the masses of pundits expecting perfection.
Swinney likes to get a feel for his team, rotate personnel, try out new schemes and, in short, learn what's going to work and what isn't when the games really matter. Want some proof? Since 2015, in games played through the first Saturday in October against FBS opponents, Clemson is 12-12-1 against the spread. Afterward, Clemson is 29-15-2. Before the first Saturday of October, Clemson averages 34.2 points per game. After that, 40.8. Before early October, 42% of its wins come by 21 points or more. Afterward, 51%.
Now let's look at where Clemson stands this week. Fresh off a closer-than-expected win over Virginia, the Tigers have been saying all the right things about not letting teams hang around, about better discipline, about capitalizing on opportunities. Translation: Trevor Lawrence and Co. have something to prove.
Enter Miami, everyone's early 2020 darling. Yes, the Hurricanes are leaps and bounds better than last year, but the past two meetings with the Tigers have gone poorly to say the least, and Brent Venables has a knack for defending against versatile QBs like D'Eriq King. Yes, the 14-point spread for the game is a tick higher than I'm comfortable with, but I expect Clemson to get off to a hot start and go into halftime with at least a two-score lead. It's the shortened season's turning point, which means it's time for Swinney's crew to hit the gas.
Pick: Clemson -7.5 first half (at DK)

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[h=3]Florida State at No. 5 Notre Dame (-21, 52), 7:30 p.m. ET[/h]Johnson: Florida State has played significantly worse than anybody could have expected entering Year 1 under Mike Norvell. The most embarrassing showing wasn't even their 42-point loss to Miami; the Seminoles trailed at halftime to Jacksonville State before making a quarterback change. Backup QB Jordan Travis led them to five straight touchdown drives once he took over -- unsurprisingly, he has been named the starter against Notre Dame. It's scary buying low on teams that have performed poorly, but I think this is the right time. My projection is Florida State +18, and the Fighting Irish haven't played in three weeks because of COVID-19 concerns and missed practice time as well.
Pick: Florida State +21

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[h=3]Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (-2, 58), 7:30 p.m. ET (on SECN)[/h]Kezirian: I am cautiously backing Kentucky, not because I doubt them but because I have a lot of respect for Mike Leach and K.J. Costello. In this very column, I backed the Bulldogs in their opener at LSU. However, the Wildcats have caught some bad luck and seem poised for a breakout performance. I also like what I've seen from Kentucky's defense, and I think the Wildcats will follow the proper script to limit Leach's offense.
Picks: Kentucky -2, under 58
Johnson: Mike Leach offenses are the definition of high variance. One week you can upset LSU on the road, and the next you can lose to Arkansas at home as a 17-point favorite. I was lucky enough to predict both upsets, but in this matchup, I think the market is discrediting Kentucky for its 0-2 start too excessively. I project the Wildcats a five-point favorite, and when this opened -3 earlier in the week, I planned to pass on the game. Now that we are under the key number of three, it's a buy on Terry Wilson and the better team, playing at home, at a cheap price.
Pick: Kentucky -2

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[h=3]Charlotte 49ers (-3, 67.5) at North Texas Mean Green, 8 p.m. ET (on ESPNU)[/h]Kezirian: You might recall that Charlotte was a frequent pick of mine last season. I am a big fan of coach Will Healy and believe in his offense. The 49ers have suffered two tough losses, and the covers only offer consolation to backers. I think this is where Healy gets a win, and I hope he remains perfect against the spread. The Mean Green haven't looked particularly powerful, losing by 30 points to SMU and then losing as a favorite to Southern Miss. North Texas is normally a team that gives me fits. We all have that one team. Whether you bet on them or against them, you always seem to lose. I hope that trend stops here for me and the Mean Green.
Pick: Charlotte -3