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[SportsBookData]

Killer Sports? TIA.

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters:
Pointwise
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Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
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Power Sweep
Power Plays
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VSiN 2019-20 NBA Betting Guide

Records:
2019 Newsletter college records by week
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's October 23 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
PigSkin Junkies

 

[southerncoach]

Wiseguys contest …Week 9 college PICKS
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Top 9 :.SN: 35-31 …

Wk9 Picks: Aub, Wis, Tenn, SMU, Tula, Temple, Duke, Kent, UNLV, OK ST, Mia (Fla)
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Next 7 19-17 on SN …
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WK 9 PICKS: Buffalo, ND
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Fade 3: SN: 10-15 …

WK 9 PICKS (Fade These): NC,

Duke (NC & Duke cancel) , ​

Pitt, Mich St,

GL & thx again Buzz
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[southerncoach]

Wiseguys contest …Week 8 NFL PICKS​

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Top 9 : SN:33-23 …
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WK 8 PICKS:LAC, DEN, NO, NO Und, Atl Und, GB Ovr
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Next 7 31-22 on SN …

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WK 8 PICKS: Car(2), Az(2) NYG(2), Phi, NE, Mia, Tenn, NYJ, Chi Und
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Fade 3, SN: 13-10 …​

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Wk 8 PICKS: (Fade these) Sea Ovr, GB Ovr

GL

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 9 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]After going 12-0 the previous three weeks, Chris "The Bear" Fallica's perfect streak finally came to an end. So what's in store for this week?
Here, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and "The Bear" break down Week 9 of the college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on. We even added a two-team "toilet bowl" teaser of the two worst matchups of the year!
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 9 picks.

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[h=2]The plays[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve (3-3 last week, 20-17-2 overall)[/h][h=3]The Bear (1-5 last week, 18-16-1 overall)[/h]

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Texas Longhorns (-1, 59.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
The Bear: A thin Texas defense was on the field for 86 plays last week and gave up 7.7 yards per play to Oklahoma the week prior. Now, the Longhorns head to Fort Worth to take on a desperate TCU team coming off consecutive road losses. I'm not sure Max Duggan is going to scare many teams at quarterback for the Horned Frogs, but he and the running game should be able to make enough plays against a defense that misses a ton of tackles and is 113th nationally in yards per play allowed; only four Power 5 teams are worse (Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt and Colorado). I'll also side with the books, which made TCU a favorite, only to see this number cross zero. If you like TCU, you might even be able to get 2 or 2.5 by Saturday.
It's sometimes dangerous to compare box scores with common opponents, but TCU beat Kansas on its home field 51-14, outgaining the Jayhawks 625-159. Texas needed a last-second field goal to beat KU 50-48 in a game where it allowed 569 yards.
Pick: TCU +1

Texas State Bobcats at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-12, 58.5)
The Bear: The Red Wolves are still dealing with some injuries, and while backup QB Layne Hatcher has been putting up solid numbers, the defense is a huge problem, as it has allowed 496 or more yards six times this season. Texas State actually ranks 43 spots better than Arkansas State in defensive yards per play, and if the offense can keep taking better care of the ball, the Bobcats should find the end zone enough to hang in the game. Arkansas State allowed 722 yards in a loss to Georgia State, while Texas State beat the Panthers.
Pick: Texas State +12

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (-1, 51)
Stanford Steve: The Wolverines haven't played a team in the top 40 in passing yards this season. Even though I was impressed with their improvement across the board last week at Penn State, I feel like Notre Dame's skill-position talent is better than Michigan's defensive skill talent. QB Ian Book and the offense have faced above-average secondaries in Virginia and Georgia. In that road loss to the Dawgs, Book completed 64% of his passes for 275 yards. Brian Kelly has never won in Ann Arbor, but I don't think we'll be able to say that after this game. Take the Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame +1; Notre Dame 27, Michigan 21

Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 53)
Stanford Steve: This one feels like the same game as when Tulane went to West Point a couple weeks ago. We were on the wrong side that day when we went against the Green Wave; this time we'll take them.
Pick: Tulane +3.5; Tulane 24, Navy 23
[h=3]Stanford Steve's short favorite to take on the money line[/h]

South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5, 48) at Tennessee Volunteers
I just think the Vols will really have trouble blocking the Gamecocks, and with Brian Maurer out, South Carolina has an advantage at quarterback.
Pick: South Carolina ML -175; South Carolina 24, Tennessee 18
[h=3]Stanford Steve's pick for the SEC game of the week[/h]

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-11.5, 58.5)
I think we get an old-school SEC game, as Auburn can win only if it runs for a lot of yards and keeps Joe Burrow and the LSU offense off the field.
Pick: Under 58.5; LSU 27, Auburn 16
[h=3]Stanford Steve's picks to go over the total[/h]

Maryland Terrapins at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-16.5, 56.5)
I don't like the matchup or the situation for the Terps as they head north. I think the Gophers' offense is legit and Maryland will score enough.
Pick: Over 56.5; Minnesota 41, Maryland 24

Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons (-3.5, 58)
This is a contrast of styles. Utah State plays as fast as anyone in the country, while you know the Falcons play that option. The Aggies average 33 points and over 450 yards per game on offense, while Air Force averages 37 points per game, getting around 300 yards on the ground. The over has cashed in four of the past six games these two have played against each other.
Pick: Over 58; Air Force 33, Utah State 30

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[h=2]Two-game Toilet Bowl teaser[/h]Two-team, six-point teaser.
UConn Huskies (-10, 62.5) at UMass Minutemen
Liberty Flames (-7.5, 47.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Stanford Steve: Worst two games on the slate. Figured I would offer my thoughts for some laughs.
Pick: UConn -4, Liberty -1.5
The Bear: As advertised on the podcast. Rutgers' FPI is 121. UMass comes in at 130 and UConn is 127.
Pick: Liberty -1.5, UMass +16

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[h=2]Stay-away games[/h][h=3]The Bear[/h]

Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 53)
The Green Wave could be down running backs Darius Bradwell, who was a surprise scratch at Memphis, and Corey Dauphine, who injured his wrist in the game.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 44) at Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans have won each of the past two meetings as a double-digit underdog, and the spot couldn't be worse for the Nittany Lions off the victory over Michigan, coupled with MSU entering off an idle week after being embarrassed by Wisconsin. But Michigan State's offense is a unit I want no part of backing right now.

San Diego State Aztecs (-13, 45) at UNLV Rebels
Revenge is on the minds of the Aztecs after last season's loss to the Rebels, but San Diego State isn't the most prolific offense out there, and UNLV -- like SDSU -- has shown it's capable of beating a Power 5 team. Not sure I'd be looking to lay two touchdowns with an offense that might not hit 30 points.
[h=3]Stanford Steve[/h]

Iowa Hawkeyes (-10.5, 37.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
Yuck.

Indiana Hoosiers (-1, 52.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
No idea what to expect from the quarterback position -- on either side.

Arizona Wildcats (-1, 53.5) at Stanford Cardinal
I'll be in attendance for the 1999 Pac-10 Rose Bowl team reunion. Too much emotion. Go Card!

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[h=2]The Bear's money-line parlay of the week[/h]Seven-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 wins $34.82.
Clemson -12000
Western Michigan -3500
Utah -2500
Fresno State -600
Appalachian State -5000
Alabama -10000
Northern Illinois -2500

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[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML[/h]Eastern Michigan +150
Indiana +108
East Carolina +110
Boston College +150
Louisville +145
Texas State +375

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[h=2]Stanford Steve's line that makes no sense[/h]

Texas Longhorns (-1, 59.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
In nontraditional rivalries, when you rank how much a head coach hates another annual opponent, I would put Gary Patterson's hatred for the burnt orange atop the list.
Pick: TCU +1; TCU 31, Texas 30

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[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Connecticut at Massachusetts is the first game pitting two teams with matching 1-6 records since 2017, when Texas State beat Coastal Carolina as a 10-point dog. In fact, each of the past five games where both teams brought a 1-6 mark into the game saw the underdog win outright. That run dates back to 2004.
Temple usually a live home 'dog
In its past nine games as a home underdog, Temple is 8-1 ATS with six outright wins. That includes wins this season both times the Owls were home 'dogs (vs. Maryland and Memphis.)
Stanford in an unusual position
This is the first time since the Arizona game in 2008 that Stanford is a home underdog in conference play against someone other than Oregon, USC or Washington. That day, Jim Harbaugh's Cardinal beat Arizona 24-23 as a 6.5-point 'dog.
Kansas is respected
This would be the first time since the Iowa State game in 2014 that Kansas is less than a 4-point underdog. KU won 34-14 that day as a 3.5-point 'dog. The Jayhawks currently are 4-point underdogs vs. Texas Tech.
Take the points in Columbus?
Six of the past seven meetings between Wisconsin and Ohio State have resulted in either a Wisconsin win (2010) or an Ohio State win by seven points or less. The Buckeyes' 59-0 win in the 2014 Big Ten Championship game is the only OSU victory by more than a touchdown in this stretch. Note Wisconsin was favored in three of the seven games.
... or maybe not
Since 1990, there have been seven ranked favorites who lost outright as at least a 24-point favorite and then were an underdog the following week. Only one of the seven -- Virginia Tech last season -- bounced back from that loss to win. The seven went a collective 2-4-1 ATS.
Horned Frogs > Horns?
This is the first time since 2012 that TCU will face a ranked Texas team. TCU has won and covered four of the past five meetings, losing last season as a 3-point favorite.
Can't beat the rivals
Michigan is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS under Jim Harbaugh against Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame.
Spartans' underdog role
Michigan State is 4-5 ATS in its past nine games as an underdog. Prior to that, MSU was 17-4 in its previous 21 games as a 'dog. However, each of the past two seasons, the Spartans have beaten Penn State outright as a double-digit underdog.
Coach O a lock vs. top 10
In 19 games against top-10 opponents, Ed Orgeron is 15-3-1 ATS. Coach O is 13-1-1 ATS against top-10 teams not named Alabama and has won each of the past eight outright in that spot.
Eastern Michigan back in beloved spot
In its past 26 games as an underdog, EMU is 21-5 ATS with 11 outright wins.
Ducks have been dominated
Washington State has covered nine straight vs. Oregon and won each of the past four outright.

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]Best bets for Week 9 college football games[/h]Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the ninth full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Johnson: 22-17-1 (1-1 last week)
Connelly: 15-9-1 (2-1 last week)
Steele: 16-27 (3-3 last week)
Kezirian: 30-23-1 (4-6 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.

[h=2]Friday's game[/h]

[h=3]USC Trojans (-13.5, 62.5) at Colorado Buffaloes[/h]Kezirian: Unsurprisingly, the line has moved up from the opening number of 11. These are two teams headed in opposite directions. Colorado has lost three consecutive games, including the past two by a combined score of 86-13. The Trojans enter off a blowout victory over Arizona and should find similar ease scoring on this Colorado defense. The Buffaloes are allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 116th out of 130 FBS teams.
At times this year Buffs quarterback Steven Montez has shown flashes. He was awful in the past two games, throwing six interceptions, but those came on the road. I expect him to experience more success at home against a USC defense that certainly showed vulnerability the past few weeks. I think Montez can take advantage in places where Khalil Tate could not.
Pick: Over 62.5 and USC team total over 37.5 (FanDuel)
[h=2]Saturday's games[/h]

[h=3]Arkansas Razorbacks at Alabama Crimson Tide (-32.5, 56)[/h]Kezirian: This is an extremely intriguing game. I realize quarterback Mac Jones figures to look more competent with a full week of practice, but this is a giant dropoff from Tua Tagovailoa. Coach Nick Saban will simplify his offense and rely on his talent gap at all other positions. I expect the offense to throw, given they need to prepare Jones to play against LSU in their next game in case he's forced to start, but this will probably resemble the typical Bama offenses with "game managers" at the helm. Plus, if he has a big lead in the second half, Saban will look to bleed clock and get to the bye week as healthy as possible.
Alabama's defense has shown some vulnerability against quality SEC opponents but Arkansas does not present those challenges. The Razorbacks only mustered 10 points against Auburn and I expect a similar performance in this game. The Bama defense tends to bend on drives but not break in the red zone. This is not a dominant defense like we've seen in years past, but it should be up for this challenge.
Pick: Under 56

[h=3]Troy Trojans at Georgia State Panthers (-1, 66)[/h]Johnson: This one is a matchup play for me. Troy's defense ranks ranks 128th against the pass (against the 120th-toughest schedule). The Trojans are allowing 9.6 yards per opponent pass attempt, which is actually an improvement after allowing just 4.8 yards per pass in last week's matchup against South Alabama. Troy ranks 12th in the country against the run, so I anticipate we see the Panthers slinging it from the get-go and attacking the Trojans' defense accordingly.
Georgia State's pass defense also ranks outside the top 80, and Troy throws at one of the highest frequencies in the nation. My projections are 70.1 and Georgia State -2, and I like the prospects of the Panthers gaining a first down every time they drop back to pass.
Pick: Georgia State -1 and over 66

[h=3]Memphis Tigers (-10.5) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane[/h]Johnson: My projection in this matchup is Tulsa +7.3. I think there are two big reasons there is a discrepancy between my number and the market.
First, Memphis got bet against heavily last week against Tulane. The line was +4.5 on the Green Wave early in the week, got down to +2 at kickoff and the Tigers won the game by 30. That type of result tends to scare people off, but it's important to remember that it was only a one-game sample. The biggest and sharpest market influencers were pounding Tulane last week, and that's still worth noting.
Second, Tulsa is only 2-5, but I think the Golden Hurricane are one of the best two-win teams in the country. Last week, they covered in a 24-13 losing effort in Cincinnati. They actually outgained the Bearcats, but five turnovers from QB Zach Smith swung it in Cincinnati's favor. Tulsa is also the team that blew the 21-point, fourth-quarter lead to an undefeated SMU team earlier this season. The Hurricane were beating Oklahoma State outright in the third quarter of a game in Week 3. They covered on the road against Michigan State in the season opener. Their two victories have come against Wyoming and San Jose State -- two fairly impressive Mountain West squads.
The Golden Hurricane can hang in this matchup. Their top-40 pass defense (not adjusted for strength of schedule) will be able to slow down Brady White and a Memphis passing attack that ranks 14th (against a much weaker strength of schedule). I took the double digits plus the hook.
Pick: Tulsa +10.5
Connelly: Consider this a faith-in-SP+ pick. SP+ is 5-1 ATS in Memphis games this season and 6-1 in Tulsa games. While Tulsa has been better than its 2-5 record, Memphis is just downright good. And though I don't love the -10.5 number, SP+ says Memphis by 18, so we're rolling with it.
The big advantage here comes when Tulsa has the ball. The Tulsa defense is good enough to frustrate Memphis here and there, but the Tigers rank 36th in defensive SP+, and the Golden Hurricane rank 106th on offense. Worse, they're a fast 106th -- they operate at a pretty high tempo but go nowhere quickly. Against a Memphis team that makes bigger big plays than anyone else (and plays nearly flawless special teams), it's pretty easy to see how this could snowball. Tulsa hung pretty tight with Cincinnati last week, but Memphis plays defense nearly as well as the Bearcats, and with much more offensive pop.
Pick: Memphis -10.5

[h=3]Utah State Aggies (+3.5) at Air Force Falcons[/h]Johnson: Gary Andersen has always been a defensive-minded coach who is strong against the run. When he took over the Utah State program in 2009, the Aggies improved from 111th in the country in opponent yards per rushing attempt to No. 8 in 2012 (he left for Wisconsin the following season). This season, they rank 17th, and are getting an Air Force option attack that was down to its third-string quarterback Saturday night at Hawai'i. Now, Hawai'i's rush defense ranks 123rd and the Falcons were able to run with success anyway, but that will be a different story against the Aggies.
On the other side of the ball, QB Jordan Love will be able to find success against a weak Air Force pass defense giving up 7.9 yards per attempt. My projection is Utah State +1.2 if Falcons starting QB Donald Hammond III is a go, so getting the hook on a key number like +3 is an edge worth betting either way.
Pick: Utah State +3.5

[h=3]Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5) at Michigan State Spartans[/h]Johnson: Last week against Michigan, Penn State gave up 26 first downs to its own 14. The Nittany Lions were outgained 417 yards to 283. The week prior in Iowa, they were outgained by 62 yards. They deserve credit for notching wins, but I still haven't been too impressed with Penn State's performance. Turning around after two extremely physically taxing games and traveling to face a top-15 Mark Dantonio defense in East Lansing coming off its bye week is an absolutely miserable spot.
My raw projection is +3.9 anyway, and with all of the other variables on our side, snagging the 6.5-points (and +200 on the money line) is certainly worthwhile.
Pick: Michigan State +6.5
Steele: It is time to circle the wagons for Michigan State. The Spartans went on the road to face two of the top teams in the country and got blown out by both Ohio State and Wisconsin. Last week, Penn State survived at home as Michigan dropped a tying touchdown pass near the end of the game. Despite having the hyped home crowd behind them, the Nittany Lions gained just 14 first downs to Michigan's 26 and were outgained by 134 yards. Penn State is playing with the pressure of being 7-0 and has to play its third big game in three weeks -- and will do so on the road. This game goes to the wire, and an upset wouldn't surprise me.
ATS pick: Michigan State +6.5
Score: Penn State 17, Michigan State 16

[h=3]Florida International Panthers (-2.5) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders[/h]Connelly: Middle Tennessee is a team SP+ has had a pretty good read on all season, and SP+ projects an average losing margin of 6.9 points for the Blue Raiders in this one. Combine that with the fact that both SP+ and Vegas have been a bit behind the curve on FIU's recent rise, and I think you've got a pretty good bet here.
Since quarterback James Morgan returned to full strength, Florida International has been a different team. The Panthers covered by 17 points or more against UMass in Week 6 and Charlotte in Week 7, and while they failed to cover against UTEP, they still won comfortably 32-17 in what was a very low-tempo game (nine possessions each, dictated by tortoise-slow UTEP). With the offense coming around, FIU is one of the more well-rounded teams in Conference USA (80th in offensive SP+, 81st on defense, 69th in special teams), and I think the Panthers handle this one comfortably.
Pick: Florida International -2.5

[h=3]Liberty Flames (-7.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights[/h]Connelly: Yes, I am taking Rutgers to cover in a game of football ... so I should probably explain myself.
1. Rutgers is 74th in defensive SP+. That's not good by Big Ten standards, but it's a decent FBS standard, and in five games against FBS defenses this season, Liberty is averaging only 17 points per game. (Rolling up 121 points in two games against FCS teams is why the Flames' scoring average is decent overall.)
2. If we set Liberty's range at something like 17-21 points, then, Rutgers needs to score only 10-17 points to cover. That's ... a pretty high bar for a team that hasn't scored in double digits since September, yes.
All we really know about the Rutgers offense, however, is that it can't score against Big Ten-caliber defenses. In the two opportunities they got to play teams anywhere near Liberty's caliber (98th in defensive SP+), the Scarlet Knights scored 48 points against UMass (130th) and 16 against Boston College (94th). Granted, that was a couple of Rutgers quarterbacks ago, but I have faith that the Knights can cross back over into the land of double-digit points and score a glorious cover. SP+ says Liberty by 3.2, and I can roll with that.
Pick: Rutgers +7.5

[h=3]UCF Knights (-10.5) at Temple Owls[/h]Steele: The home team in Temple games this season is a perfect 7-0 ATS, including Owls victories as home 'dog over No. 21 Maryland and No. 23 Memphis. While UCF has won three of the past four meetings between these two, Temple has had the yardage edge in each but is minus-nine in turnovers. Temple QBs combined for 19 interceptions last season, but just six this season. In UCF's previous trip to Philadelphia, the Knights were held to season lows in yards (317) and first downs. The Knights' QBs are completing 65.2% of their passes at home but just 53.7% on the road, losing at both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Temple will take the Knights to the wire.
ATS pick: Temple +10.5
Score: UCF 28, Temple 27

[h=3]Miami RedHawks at Kent State Golden Flashes (-1.5)[/h]Steele: Miami head coach Chuck Martin is now 3-22 straight up and 1-11 ATS in nonconference play the past three seasons, so he has stayed true to form with his team 0-4 ATS this season in nonconference play. Miami turns the switch on in Mid-American Conference play at 18-7 straight up the past 25 MAC games (9-2 ATS past 11). Kent State is 3-4, but its wins have been over an FCS team, Bowling Green and Akron. This matchup is a battle for first place in the MAC East, and I will continue to ride a Miami team that focuses on MAC games.
ATS pick: Miami +1.5
Score: Miami 31, Kent State 27

[h=3]Texas Tech Red Raiders (-3.5, 61.5) at Kansas Jayhawks[/h]Steele: Kansas is 3-0 ATS this season as a three-touchdown underdog or more, including an upset of Boston College and near-upset of Texas last week. When the line is two touchdowns or less, the Jayhawks are 0-4 ATS this season. Texas Tech has faced the tougher schedule, yet is plus-27 yards per game, and Kansas is minus-87 yards per game. The Red Raiders are 3-4, and this figures to be a must-win for them to get to a bowl game, so they will take Kansas seriously. Texas Tech has won the past 12 meetings in this series and has won its previous six trips to Lawrence by an average of 29.4 points per game.
ATS pick: Texas Tech -3.5
Score: Texas Tech 31, Kansas 17
Johnson: This one is straightforward: The 48 points the Jayhawks scored against the Longhorns last week wasn't a fluke. I ended up betting both the first-half and full-game overs after I learned about new offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon. He's a 34-year-old math major who drives a 2009 Toyota Corolla with 134,000 miles on it. It doesn't matter. Dearmon has written multiple books on the run-pass option (RPO), and is known in coaching circles as a guru. He started at smaller schools and has worked his way up to to run the show at Kansas. Head coach Les Miles said Dearmon is one of the brightest individuals he has ever encountered in all of his years of coaching. I'm willing to back that again, and maybe get out in front of a string of Jayhawks overs.
Pick: Over 61.5

[h=3]No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 19 Michigan Wolverines (PK)[/h]Steele: Jim Harbaugh is still winless versus ranked teams on the road as Michigan's coach. In the past three seasons, Michigan has faced four ranked teams at home and is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS in those games, with its average win by 22.3 points. The Wolverines' offense emerged in the second half against a tough Penn State defense on the road and should continue to roll the rest of the season. The home team has won five in a row in this series and is 8-1 straight up and ATS the past nine meetings. My computer calls for Michigan to have a 412-316 yardage edge in this nearly pick 'em game in the Big House.
ATS pick: Michigan PK
Score: Michigan 23, Notre Dame 17

[h=3]Washington State Cougars at Oregon Ducks (-14, 64)[/h]Johnson: Everyone was hyping the Oregon defense before its showdown in Seattle against Washington last Saturday. And the unit deserved it -- to some degree. The Ducks ranked third in the nation in defensive efficiency, but the best team and quarterback they had faced was Auburn's Bo Nix in the opener. Washington's Jacob Eason and the Huskies were able to move the ball to the tune of 6.8 YPP. Now the Ducks are coming off of their comeback victory and have to face Mike Leach's Air Raid offense, which ranks No. 5 in the country behind QB Anthony Gordon.
The Cougars have had defensive issues of their own (remember that UCLA game?), and Leach fired the defensive coordinator. Their matchup in Tempe, Arizona, against the Sun Devils resulted in 72 points scored (38 from ASU's struggling offense). My projection is 69.6, so this is an easy decision for me.
Pick: Over 64

[h=3]Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels (-3.5, 54.5)[/h]Johnson: The Blue Devils haven't allowed more than 350 yards to an opponent this season since the opener against Alabama. They have losses to Pittsburgh and Virginia, though, where they gave up 33 and 48 points, respectively. Turnovers played a major role, and I think a few of the final scores in their games have been misleading.
The Duke offense ranks outside the top 100, and in this rivalry matchup against Mack Brown's Tar Heels, I project only 51.7 points. Despite fielding one of the least efficient offenses in the country and limiting opponents, Duke has seen six of its seven games go over the total. I think that's why we're getting some value here, and I'm perfectly fine going under at this number.
Pick: Under 54.5

[h=3]Texas Longhorns (-1.5) at TCU Horned Frogs[/h]Johnson: I've been bearish on TCU since the preseason. The Horned Frogs aren't performing up to Gary Patterson standards on either side of the ball, and in the games they have faced a legitimate passing attack (Brock Purdy at Iowa State, Shane Buechele at SMU), they've surrendered at least 400 yards and 40 points. I know the Longhorns needed a late field goal just to beat Kansas at home as a three-touchdown favorite, but that's likely why we are seeing a cheap price now.
I'm not sure what changes for the TCU defense against Sam Ehlinger, and the way to beat the Texas defense is through the air against its depleted secondary. The Horned Frogs rank 107th in passing at just 6.3 yards per attempt. Give me the Horns.
Pick: Texas -1.5

[h=3]Miami (FL) Hurricanes at Pittsburgh Panthers (-5.5)[/h]Kezirian: We might need to view Pitt as a good football team. After nearly beating Penn State in Happy Valley, many labeled it as a negative on the Nittany Lions. Same for Pitt's upset of Central Florida. The Panthers are 5-2 ATS and continue to prove doubters wrong. I am more than happy to lay this relatively short number against a team that struggles offensively as much as Miami does. While I expect a good effort from the Hurricanes following their embarrassing home loss to lowly Georgia Tech, they can barely block. The Canes allow 5.2 sacks per game, which ranks 128th out of 130 FBS teams. Their sack percentage is 13.25%, which ranks 126th out of 130. I like this Pitt team to take care of business.
Pick: Pittsburgh -5.5

 

[BuzzKill]

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[BuzzKill]

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2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's October 23 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
Stanford Steve & The Bear
PigSkin Junkies

 

[BuzzKill]

Thanks!

Newsletters:
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Nelly's Green Sheet
Powers' Picks
Gaming Today
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - Thursday NFL
Killer Sports
Sports Reporter
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Gold Sheet Football
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Gold Sheet Basketball
VSiN 2019-20 NBA Betting Guide

Records:
2019 Newsletter college records by week
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's October 23 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
Stanford Steve & The Bear
PigSkin Junkies

 

[Giant419]

Confidential Kick Off
11* (4-3)
10* (17-16)
o/u (5-8)

Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (24-16-2) (4-1 this week)(includes all year)
NFL Best Bets (13-11-0) (Never saw their NFL picks this week)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (2-5-1) Duke
4* (2-6) Oklahoma St
3* (6-2) Wisconsin
Upset pick (5-3) Temple
Betcha Didn't Know (5-7) Carolina
Awesome Angle (3-4-1) UNC
Incredible Stat (4-3) KC

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (4-2-1) KC
4* (1-6) Philly
3* (3-4) Tampa

Pointwise NCAA
1* (6-9) Navy, Oregon
2* (3-5) SMU
3* (2-6) Notre Dame
4* (8-8) South Carolina, Ohio St
5* (12-4) SDSU, Minnesota

Pointwise NFL
3* (4-3) Seattle
4* (10-4) Buffalo, SF
5* (7-6-1) Indy, Minnesota

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (4-3) Tulsa
3* (8-8) Texas, Mich St
2* (9-7) Arizona St, MTSU
Underdog Play of the Week (3-5) Duke
Tech Play of the Week (3-4) Ball St
Revenge Play of the Week (3-5) SDSU
Situational Play of the Week (3-2)
Series Play of the Week (3-1) Wash St

Power Sweep NFL
4* (4-3) Indy
3* (5-2) Chicago
2* (5-2) Carolina
NFL System play (6-2) Buffalo
4* Pro Angle (5-2) Chicago
3* o/u play (5-2) Car/SF UNDER

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (5-5-1) Purdue, Michigan
2* (14-12-1) Wazzu, Virginia, Arizona St

Powers' Picks NFL
3* (3-4) Indy
2* (11-3) Houston, KC

Sports Reporter (5-1 overall this week)
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-1)
NCAA Best Bets (18-10)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (10-5)

Red Sheet
90* (1-0)
89* (5-10) SDSU, Memphis
88* (17-14-1) FSU, WKU, Notre Dame, Miami (NFL)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (2-6)
NCAA 3* (6-2)
NFL 4* (3-4)
NFL 3* (4-3)

Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (2-1)
MTI 4.5* (3-1) Browns/Pats u46
MTI 4* (3-4) Raiders
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-2-1) Cincy
SBB 4* (5-6) Philly
Cajun NCAA (6-3) FAU
Pick 60 Play of the Week (4-3) GB/KC u47.5

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (4-5) Raiders/Texans OVER
2* (8-5) Packers/Chiefs OVER
Team Total of the Week (5-2) Bengals u18

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (7-5) Ball St, Texas Tech
NCAA 4* (11-16-1) UConn, Central Mich, WKU, Kansas St
NFL 4* (5-2) NO

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (15-15-2) Central Mich, Wazzu, Texas, SDSU
NFL Key Releases (11-10) Seattle, Philly, NO
Tech Play (4-4) WKU

 

[XENO]

winning pts? thx

 

[BuzzKill]

Confidential Kick-Off

 

[IndianJoe]

Any Midwest sports..........Thx in advance

 

[BuzzKill]

winning pts? thx

Winning Points

 

[Giant419]

[h=1]
Updated with a couple more picks from THE BEAR

'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 9 college football picks, bets, nuggets[/h]After going 12-0 the previous three weeks, Chris "The Bear" Fallica's perfect streak finally came to an end. So what's in store for this week?
Here, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and "The Bear" break down Week 9 of the college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on. We even added a two-team "toilet bowl" teaser of the two worst matchups of the year!
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 9 picks.

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[h=2]The plays[/h][h=3]Stanford Steve (3-3 last week, 20-17-2 overall)[/h][h=3]The Bear (1-5 last week, 18-16-1 overall)[/h]

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Texas Longhorns (-1, 59.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
The Bear: A thin Texas defense was on the field for 86 plays last week and gave up 7.7 yards per play to Oklahoma the week prior. Now, the Longhorns head to Fort Worth to take on a desperate TCU team coming off consecutive road losses. I'm not sure Max Duggan is going to scare many teams at quarterback for the Horned Frogs, but he and the running game should be able to make enough plays against a defense that misses a ton of tackles and is 113th nationally in yards per play allowed; only four Power 5 teams are worse (Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt and Colorado). I'll also side with the books, which made TCU a favorite, only to see this number cross zero. If you like TCU, you might even be able to get 2 or 2.5 by Saturday.
It's sometimes dangerous to compare box scores with common opponents, but TCU beat Kansas on its home field 51-14, outgaining the Jayhawks 625-159. Texas needed a last-second field goal to beat KU 50-48 in a game where it allowed 569 yards.
Pick: TCU +1

Texas State Bobcats at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-12, 58.5)
The Bear: The Red Wolves are still dealing with some injuries, and while backup QB Layne Hatcher has been putting up solid numbers, the defense is a huge problem, as it has allowed 496 or more yards six times this season. Texas State actually ranks 43 spots better than Arkansas State in defensive yards per play, and if the offense can keep taking better care of the ball, the Bobcats should find the end zone enough to hang in the game. Arkansas State allowed 722 yards in a loss to Georgia State, while Texas State beat the Panthers.
Pick: Texas State +12

California Golden Bears at Utah Utes (-21, 36.5)
Utah QB Tyler Huntley is expected to play and I'm chalking up last week's offensive struggles to a combination of his injury and bad weather. The Cal defense is legit, so how will the Bears score points regardless of whether Devon Modster or Spencer Brasch is under center? This has the feel of a 27-3 type game where Utah just pulls away against a Cal defense that will be on the field for a long period of time.
Pick: Utah -21

Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-2.5, 53.5)
OK, I'm doing it: I'm meeting up with my old friend Indiana to see if we can work things out. QB Michael Penix has been practicing this week and even if he doesn't go, I don't think there is a huge drop off to Peyton Ramsey. Adrian Martinez's status is still up in the air for the Huskers, who have other injury and roster issues as well. Indiana has a legitimate shot at eight wins if the Hoosiers can pull the small upset and I think Marcelino Ball and the IU defense will continue the struggles for the Huskers offense.
Pick: Indiana +2.5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (-1, 51)
Stanford Steve: The Wolverines haven't played a team in the top 40 in passing yards this season. Even though I was impressed with their improvement across the board last week at Penn State, I feel like Notre Dame's skill-position talent is better than Michigan's defensive skill talent. QB Ian Book and the offense have faced above-average secondaries in Virginia and Georgia. In that road loss to the Dawgs, Book completed 64% of his passes for 275 yards. Brian Kelly has never won in Ann Arbor, but I don't think we'll be able to say that after this game. Take the Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame +1; Notre Dame 27, Michigan 21

Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 53)
Stanford Steve: This one feels like the same game as when Tulane went to West Point a couple weeks ago. We were on the wrong side that day when we went against the Green Wave; this time we'll take them.
Pick: Tulane +3.5; Tulane 24, Navy 23
[h=3]Stanford Steve's short favorite to take on the money line[/h]

South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5, 48) at Tennessee Volunteers
I just think the Vols will really have trouble blocking the Gamecocks, and with Brian Maurer out, South Carolina has an advantage at quarterback.
Pick: South Carolina ML -175; South Carolina 24, Tennessee 18
[h=3]Stanford Steve's pick for the SEC game of the week[/h]

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-11.5, 58.5)
I think we get an old-school SEC game, as Auburn can win only if it runs for a lot of yards and keeps Joe Burrow and the LSU offense off the field.
Pick: Under 58.5; LSU 27, Auburn 16
[h=3]Stanford Steve's picks to go over the total[/h]

Maryland Terrapins at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-16.5, 56.5)
I don't like the matchup or the situation for the Terps as they head north. I think the Gophers' offense is legit and Maryland will score enough.
Pick: Over 56.5; Minnesota 41, Maryland 24

Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons (-3.5, 58)
This is a contrast of styles. Utah State plays as fast as anyone in the country, while you know the Falcons play that option. The Aggies average 33 points and over 450 yards per game on offense, while Air Force averages 37 points per game, getting around 300 yards on the ground. The over has cashed in four of the past six games these two have played against each other.
Pick: Over 58; Air Force 33, Utah State 30

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[h=2]Two-game Toilet Bowl teaser[/h]Two-team, six-point teaser.
UConn Huskies (-10, 62.5) at UMass Minutemen
Liberty Flames (-7.5, 47.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Stanford Steve: Worst two games on the slate. Figured I would offer my thoughts for some laughs.
Pick: UConn -4, Liberty -1.5
The Bear: As advertised on the podcast. Rutgers' FPI is 121. UMass comes in at 130 and UConn is 127.
Pick: Liberty -1.5, UMass +16

---

[h=2]Stay-away games[/h][h=3]The Bear[/h]

Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 53)
The Green Wave could be down running backs Darius Bradwell, who was a surprise scratch at Memphis, and Corey Dauphine, who injured his wrist in the game.

Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 44) at Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans have won each of the past two meetings as a double-digit underdog, and the spot couldn't be worse for the Nittany Lions off the victory over Michigan, coupled with MSU entering off an idle week after being embarrassed by Wisconsin. But Michigan State's offense is a unit I want no part of backing right now.

San Diego State Aztecs (-13, 45) at UNLV Rebels
Revenge is on the minds of the Aztecs after last season's loss to the Rebels, but San Diego State isn't the most prolific offense out there, and UNLV -- like SDSU -- has shown it's capable of beating a Power 5 team. Not sure I'd be looking to lay two touchdowns with an offense that might not hit 30 points.
[h=3]Stanford Steve[/h]

Iowa Hawkeyes (-10.5, 37.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
Yuck.

Indiana Hoosiers (-1, 52.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
No idea what to expect from the quarterback position -- on either side.

Arizona Wildcats (-1, 53.5) at Stanford Cardinal
I'll be in attendance for the 1999 Pac-10 Rose Bowl team reunion. Too much emotion. Go Card!

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[h=2]The Bear's money-line parlay of the week[/h]Seven-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 wins $34.82.
Clemson -12000
Western Michigan -3500
Utah -2500
Fresno State -600
Appalachian State -5000
Alabama -10000
Northern Illinois -2500

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[h=2]The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML[/h]Eastern Michigan +150
Indiana +108
East Carolina +110
Louisville +145
Texas State +375

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[h=2]Stanford Steve's line that makes no sense[/h]

Texas Longhorns (-1, 59.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
In nontraditional rivalries, when you rank how much a head coach hates another annual opponent, I would put Gary Patterson's hatred for the burnt orange atop the list.
Pick: TCU +1; TCU 31, Texas 30

---

[h=2]Bear Bytes[/h]Weekend headliner!
Connecticut at Massachusetts is the first game pitting two teams with matching 1-6 records since 2017, when Texas State beat Coastal Carolina as a 10-point dog. In fact, each of the past five games where both teams brought a 1-6 mark into the game saw the underdog win outright. That run dates back to 2004.
Temple usually a live home 'dog
In its past nine games as a home underdog, Temple is 8-1 ATS with six outright wins. That includes wins this season both times the Owls were home 'dogs (vs. Maryland and Memphis.)
Stanford in an unusual position
This is the first time since the Arizona game in 2008 that Stanford is a home underdog in conference play against someone other than Oregon, USC or Washington. That day, Jim Harbaugh's Cardinal beat Arizona 24-23 as a 6.5-point 'dog.
Kansas is respected
This would be the first time since the Iowa State game in 2014 that Kansas is less than a 4-point underdog. KU won 34-14 that day as a 3.5-point 'dog. The Jayhawks currently are 4-point underdogs vs. Texas Tech.
Take the points in Columbus?
Six of the past seven meetings between Wisconsin and Ohio State have resulted in either a Wisconsin win (2010) or an Ohio State win by seven points or less. The Buckeyes' 59-0 win in the 2014 Big Ten Championship game is the only OSU victory by more than a touchdown in this stretch. Note Wisconsin was favored in three of the seven games.
... or maybe not
Since 1990, there have been seven ranked favorites who lost outright as at least a 24-point favorite and then were an underdog the following week. Only one of the seven -- Virginia Tech last season -- bounced back from that loss to win. The seven went a collective 2-4-1 ATS.
Horned Frogs > Horns?
This is the first time since 2012 that TCU will face a ranked Texas team. TCU has won and covered four of the past five meetings, losing last season as a 3-point favorite.
Can't beat the rivals
Michigan is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS under Jim Harbaugh against Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame.
Spartans' underdog role
Michigan State is 4-5 ATS in its past nine games as an underdog. Prior to that, MSU was 17-4 in its previous 21 games as a 'dog. However, each of the past two seasons, the Spartans have beaten Penn State outright as a double-digit underdog.
Coach O a lock vs. top 10
In 19 games against top-10 opponents, Ed Orgeron is 15-3-1 ATS. Coach O is 13-1-1 ATS against top-10 teams not named Alabama and has won each of the past eight outright in that spot.
Eastern Michigan back in beloved spot
In its past 26 games as an underdog, EMU is 21-5 ATS with 11 outright wins.
Ducks have been dominated
Washington State has covered nine straight vs. Oregon and won each of the past four outright.

 

[Giant419]

Almost everything is in...


Confidential Kick Off
11* (4-3) Troy
10* (17-16) WKU, Virginia, Wisconsin, Tampa (NFL)
o/u (5-8) Wash/Minn u41, Arizona/NO o48

Gridiron Gold Sheet
NCAA Best Bets (24-16-2)
NFL Best Bets (13-11-0)

Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA
5* (2-5-1) Duke
4* (2-6) Oklahoma St
3* (6-2) Wisconsin
Upset pick (5-3) Temple
Betcha Didn't Know (5-7) Carolina
Awesome Angle (3-4-1) UNC
Incredible Stat (4-3) KC

Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (4-2-1) KC
4* (1-6) Philly
3* (3-4) Tampa

Pointwise NCAA
1* (6-9) Navy, Oregon
2* (3-5) SMU
3* (2-6) Notre Dame
4* (8-8) South Carolina, Ohio St
5* (12-4) SDSU, Minnesota

Pointwise NFL
3* (4-3) Seattle
4* (10-4) Buffalo, SF
5* (7-6-1) Indy, Minnesota

Power Sweep NCAA
4* (4-3) Tulsa
3* (8-8) Texas, Mich St
2* (9-7) Arizona St, MTSU
Underdog Play of the Week (3-5) Duke
Tech Play of the Week (3-4) Ball St
Revenge Play of the Week (3-5) SDSU
Situational Play of the Week (3-2)
Series Play of the Week (3-1) Wash St

Power Sweep NFL
4* (4-3) Indy
3* (5-2) Chicago
2* (5-2) Carolina
NFL System play (6-2) Buffalo
4* Pro Angle (5-2) Chicago
3* o/u play (5-2) Car/SF UNDER

Powers' Picks NCAA
3* (5-5-1) Purdue, Michigan
2* (14-12-1) Wazzu, Virginia, Arizona St

Powers' Picks NFL
3* (3-4) Indy
2* (11-3) Houston, KC

Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-1)
NCAA Best Bets (18-10) FSU, Wazzu, FIU, Auburn
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0)
NFL Best Bets (10-5) LAR, Houston

Red Sheet
90* (1-0)
89* (5-10) SDSU, Memphis
88* (17-14-1) FSU, WKU, Notre Dame, Miami (NFL)

Winning Points
NCAA 4* (2-6) Texas
NCAA 3* (6-2) Troy
NFL 4* (3-4) Carolina
NFL 3* (4-3) Indy

Killer Sports, not including teasers
MTI 5* (2-1)
MTI 4.5* (3-1) Browns/Pats u46
MTI 4* (3-4) Raiders
MTI 3* (0-0)
SBB 4.5* (0-2-1) Cincy
SBB 4* (5-6) Philly
Cajun NCAA (6-3) FAU
Pick 60 Play of the Week (4-3) GB/KC u47.5

Victor Kings's Totals Tipsheet
3* (4-5) Raiders/Texans OVER
2* (8-5) Packers/Chiefs OVER
Team Total of the Week (5-2) Bengals u18

Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (7-5) Ball St, Texas Tech
NCAA 4* (11-16-1) UConn, Central Mich, WKU, Kansas St
NFL 4* (5-2) NO

Gold Sheet
NCAA Key Releases (15-15-2) Central Mich, Wazzu, Texas, SDSU
NFL Key Releases (11-10) Seattle, Philly, NO
Tech Play (4-4) WKU

 

[GeorgeLynch]

Marc Lawerence Mid Week Alert

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1pJIPHryI8eU8UnAMGwy88uvgCCUXqIWB

 

[BuzzKill]

Newsletters:
Pointwise
Red Sheet
Winning Points
Nelly's Green Sheet
Powers' Picks
Gaming Today
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - College
Phil Steele's Inside the Pressbox - NFL
Killer Sports
Sports Reporter
Victor King's NFL Totals Tipsheet
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
Playbook Midweek Alert
Playbook Wise Guys Contest
VSiN Point Spread Weekly
Gold Sheet Football
Confidential Kick-Off
Power Sweep
Power Plays
Gold Sheet Basketball
VSiN 2019-20 NBA Betting Guide

Records:
2019 Newsletter college records by week
2019 YTD Newsletter records
2018 Newsletter records
2017 Newsletter records
2016 Newsletter records
2018 Wise Guys Contest Final Results
2017 Wise Guys Contest Final Report

Football Podcasts:
Marc Lawrence's October 23 Podcast with Victor King - Against the Spread
Phil Steele
VSiN
Stanford Steve & The Bear
PigSkin Junkies

 

[MerlotShiraz]

Anyone see gridiron gold sheet floating around out there?

 

[jimmmy4]

Top 5 leading contestants in Week 8 Westgate Supercontest have the following picks in common this week:
NYG, CAR, NYJ, PHIL - 3 times
LAC, NE, SEA - 2 times