HAMMERtheBOOK
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS vs TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS in The DALLAS TICKET CITY BOWL @ The Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas (OVER 59 1/2 @ CARIB)
3-UNITS: PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS vs FLORIDA GATORS in The OUTBACK BOWL @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida (UNDER 48 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
3-UNITS: MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE in The CAPITAL ONE BOWL @ The Citrus Bowl Stadium in Orlando, Florida (SPARTANS +10 @ MATCHBOOK & BODOG)
4-UNITS: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES vs MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS in The GATOR BOWL @ Municipal Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida (BULLDOGS -4 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
5-UNITS: TCU HORNED FROGS vs WISCONSIN BADGERS in The ROSE BOWL @ The Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasedena, California (WISKY +3 @ CARIB)
3-UNITS: UCONN HUSKIES vs OKLAHOMA SOONERS in The FIESTA BOWL @ University of Phoenix Stadium in Phoenix, Arizona (SOONERS -16 @ BADLANDS, JAZZ, WAGERWEB, BETUS, INTERTOPS, CANBET, CRIS & BOOKMAKER)
NBA PLAYS
4-UNITS: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ MIAMI HEAT (HEAT -12 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
3-UNITS: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS (SPURS -6 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS @ GEORGETOWN HOYAS (DEPAUL +22 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES @ SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (BC EAGLES PK @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: ST. JOHNS REDMEN @ PROVIDENCE FRYARS (FRYARS -1 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS @ ARKANSAS STATE (ARKY ST. -3 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
NHL PLAYS
4-UNITS: WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (PENS ML -132 @ MATCHBOOK)
5-UNITS: NEW YORK RANGERS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (LIGHTNING ML -130 @ PINNANCLE)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS vs TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS in The DALLAS TICKET CITY BOWL @ The Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas (OVER 59 1/2 @ CARIB)
3-UNITS: PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS vs FLORIDA GATORS in The OUTBACK BOWL @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida (UNDER 48 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
3-UNITS: MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE in The CAPITAL ONE BOWL @ The Citrus Bowl Stadium in Orlando, Florida (SPARTANS +10 @ MATCHBOOK & BODOG)
4-UNITS: MICHIGAN WOLVERINES vs MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS in The GATOR BOWL @ Municipal Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida (BULLDOGS -4 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
5-UNITS: TCU HORNED FROGS vs WISCONSIN BADGERS in The ROSE BOWL @ The Rose Bowl Stadium in Pasedena, California (WISKY +3 @ CARIB)
3-UNITS: UCONN HUSKIES vs OKLAHOMA SOONERS in The FIESTA BOWL @ University of Phoenix Stadium in Phoenix, Arizona (SOONERS -16 @ BADLANDS, JAZZ, WAGERWEB, BETUS, INTERTOPS, CANBET, CRIS & BOOKMAKER)
NBA PLAYS
4-UNITS: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS @ MIAMI HEAT (HEAT -12 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
3-UNITS: OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS (SPURS -6 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
COLLEGE BASKETBALL PLAYS
4-UNITS: DEPAUL BLUE DEMONS @ GEORGETOWN HOYAS (DEPAUL +22 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES @ SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (BC EAGLES PK @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: ST. JOHNS REDMEN @ PROVIDENCE FRYARS (FRYARS -1 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
4-UNITS: WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS @ ARKANSAS STATE (ARKY ST. -3 1/2 @ MOST ALL BOOKS)
NHL PLAYS
4-UNITS: WASHINGTON CAPITALS @ PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (PENS ML -132 @ MATCHBOOK)
5-UNITS: NEW YORK RANGERS @ TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING (LIGHTNING ML -130 @ PINNANCLE)
Tipsheet mania from OffshoreInsiders. Great sports handicapper Matt Rivers has Michigan State today getting eight from Alabama.
Reasoning: Alabama truly may be the best team in the country. In a one game situation Nick Saban’s squad quite possibly would be favored over anybody on a neutral field. But just like a few seasons ago against Utah at the Superdome how in the world can the Crimson Tide players be all that excited about this game?
Emotions clearly play a major part in this time of the year and going down south in the Capital One Bowl just should not do it for the Tide. Just look at Georgia, Clemson and Miami yesterday alone as neither of the three showed much of anything in games they probably were not destined to play in earlier in the season. Guys like Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Julio Jones are awesome and future NFL players for sure. Greg McElroy is a quality signal caller who can more than hold his own against the Spartans but is also coming off of that injury against Auburn and who knows if that can affect the guy. I can see these Alabama players just going through the motions a bit and all in all for Michigan State to be the far more motivated squad and the team with a chip on its shoulder after being kept out of the BCS.
I do not believe that Mark D’Antoni’s boys are as good as either Wisconsin or Ohio State but the players do have a beef as they were 11-1 and BCS worthy. Plus they were the lone team to down the Badgers and should feel a little hosed. Being left out basically off the field should fuel State and especially so when playing against the defending National Champions.
Look for Kirk Cousins and Sparty to be the more emotional team and stay within this number. A win may be a bit much but it also may not be. After that dreadful implosion against rival Auburn how can the Tide really be all that ready to play today?
Top expert pick on this game: Michigan State
Expanding on the New Year’s and OffshoreInsiders.com BCS Bowls podcast, it’s the Capitol One Bowl preview from the CitruBowl in Orlando between Michigan State vs. Alabama.
Michigan State is an impressive 11-1 straight up, 7-5 against the spread, while Alabama is 9-3 in the newspapers, but 7-5 in the sportsbooks.
The Spartans get 4.9 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.4, 8.3 yards per pass to 7.5 and 6.4 yards per play to 5.8.
They allow just 3.6 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.3, 6.5 passing yards per attempt to 7.3 and 5.0 yards per play to 5.6.
Alabama gets 5.0 yards per rush to teams that normally allow 4.3, 9.2 passing yards per attempt to 7.4 and 6.9 yards per play to 5.7.
The Crimson Tide defense allows 3.6 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4.3, 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 4.8 yards per play to 5.7.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Alabama is 3-8 as an underdog. The Crimson Tide is 5-0 outside the conference, but 2-9 off straight up loss.
Over/under trends: The Spartans have gone over 48-19 as underdogs. Alabama has gone over 6-1 outside conference.
It’s Penn State vs. Florida in the Raymond James Bowl. The Gators are a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. Here is the official betting preview.
Penn State is 7-5 straight up and 5-7 to the number. Florida is 7-5 straight up and 6-6 against the spread.
The Nittany Lions get 4.2 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.0 and 7.2 passing yards per attempt to teams that normally allow 6.9, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.4.
The allow 4.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.3, 7.0 yards per pass to 7.7, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.8.
Gators get 4.3 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.1, but a rotten 6.5 yards per pass to squads usually permitting 7.1 and just 5.3 yards per play to 5.5.
Florida has been about defense this year allowing 3.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, just 6.3 yards per pass to 7.4, and 4.7 yards per play to 5.6.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Nittany Lions are 1-5 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Gators are 6-1 neutral sites as favorites, 22-10 overall as chalks, and 20-7 outside the conference. However, they are 0-5 to teams with a winning record.
Over/under trends: Penn State has gone under seven straight outside conference. Florida has gone over 7-2 following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Top expert pick on this game: Suffice to say that this is easily the biggest day of the bowl season. GodsTips has two Wise Guys for the first time and a bowl season high seven winners, all six sides and the top total at OffshoreInsiders.com
Northwestern vs. Texas Tech kick off the 2011 football betting season in the Dallas Football Classic played at the Cotton Bowl. Texas Tech is laying nine points with a total of 60.5. In addition to the 2011 bowl betting podcast, OffshoreInsiders.com has the official betting preview.
Northwestern is 7-5 straight up, but just 3-9 against the spread, going over 7-of-11 this season. Texas Tech is 7-5 outright, but 5-6 where it really counts.
The Wildcats are much more successful passing than running. They get just 3.5 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.1, 8.2 passing yards per attempt to defenses that allow an average of 7.5 and 5.5 yards per play to 5.6.
Northwestern allows 5.1 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, but they are better at stopping the pass allowing 6.7 yards per pass to teams that usually get 7.0. Overall they permit 5.9 yards per play to 5.5.
Texas Tech gets 4.1 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.3, but just 6.7 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.6 yards per play to 5.6.
Defensively, they are permitting 4.1 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4,1, 7.5 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.9 yards per play to 5.6.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Northwestern has dropped 7-of-8 overall. But they are 21-6 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 17-5 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. On the other hand, they are 1-8 following a SU loss of more than 20 points and 0-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Texas Tech is 1-6 off spread win.
Over/under trends: Wildcats have gone over 6-1 as an underdog, but under 10-2 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Texas Tech has gone under 6-0 off spread win.
Reasoning: Alabama truly may be the best team in the country. In a one game situation Nick Saban’s squad quite possibly would be favored over anybody on a neutral field. But just like a few seasons ago against Utah at the Superdome how in the world can the Crimson Tide players be all that excited about this game?
Emotions clearly play a major part in this time of the year and going down south in the Capital One Bowl just should not do it for the Tide. Just look at Georgia, Clemson and Miami yesterday alone as neither of the three showed much of anything in games they probably were not destined to play in earlier in the season. Guys like Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson and Julio Jones are awesome and future NFL players for sure. Greg McElroy is a quality signal caller who can more than hold his own against the Spartans but is also coming off of that injury against Auburn and who knows if that can affect the guy. I can see these Alabama players just going through the motions a bit and all in all for Michigan State to be the far more motivated squad and the team with a chip on its shoulder after being kept out of the BCS.
I do not believe that Mark D’Antoni’s boys are as good as either Wisconsin or Ohio State but the players do have a beef as they were 11-1 and BCS worthy. Plus they were the lone team to down the Badgers and should feel a little hosed. Being left out basically off the field should fuel State and especially so when playing against the defending National Champions.
Look for Kirk Cousins and Sparty to be the more emotional team and stay within this number. A win may be a bit much but it also may not be. After that dreadful implosion against rival Auburn how can the Tide really be all that ready to play today?
Top expert pick on this game: Michigan State
Expanding on the New Year’s and OffshoreInsiders.com BCS Bowls podcast, it’s the Capitol One Bowl preview from the CitruBowl in Orlando between Michigan State vs. Alabama.
Michigan State is an impressive 11-1 straight up, 7-5 against the spread, while Alabama is 9-3 in the newspapers, but 7-5 in the sportsbooks.
The Spartans get 4.9 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.4, 8.3 yards per pass to 7.5 and 6.4 yards per play to 5.8.
They allow just 3.6 yards per rush to teams that usually get 4.3, 6.5 passing yards per attempt to 7.3 and 5.0 yards per play to 5.6.
Alabama gets 5.0 yards per rush to teams that normally allow 4.3, 9.2 passing yards per attempt to 7.4 and 6.9 yards per play to 5.7.
The Crimson Tide defense allows 3.6 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4.3, 6.1 passing yards per attempt to 7.5 and 4.8 yards per play to 5.7.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Alabama is 3-8 as an underdog. The Crimson Tide is 5-0 outside the conference, but 2-9 off straight up loss.
Over/under trends: The Spartans have gone over 48-19 as underdogs. Alabama has gone over 6-1 outside conference.
It’s Penn State vs. Florida in the Raymond James Bowl. The Gators are a seven-point favorite with a total of 48. Here is the official betting preview.
Penn State is 7-5 straight up and 5-7 to the number. Florida is 7-5 straight up and 6-6 against the spread.
The Nittany Lions get 4.2 yards per rush to foes that are permitting an average of 4.0 and 7.2 passing yards per attempt to teams that normally allow 6.9, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.4.
The allow 4.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.3, 7.0 yards per pass to 7.7, and 5.6 yards per play to 5.8.
Gators get 4.3 yards per rush to defenses that permit 4.1, but a rotten 6.5 yards per pass to squads usually permitting 7.1 and just 5.3 yards per play to 5.5.
Florida has been about defense this year allowing 3.5 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, just 6.3 yards per pass to 7.4, and 4.7 yards per play to 5.6.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): The Nittany Lions are 1-5 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Gators are 6-1 neutral sites as favorites, 22-10 overall as chalks, and 20-7 outside the conference. However, they are 0-5 to teams with a winning record.
Over/under trends: Penn State has gone under seven straight outside conference. Florida has gone over 7-2 following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Top expert pick on this game: Suffice to say that this is easily the biggest day of the bowl season. GodsTips has two Wise Guys for the first time and a bowl season high seven winners, all six sides and the top total at OffshoreInsiders.com
Northwestern vs. Texas Tech kick off the 2011 football betting season in the Dallas Football Classic played at the Cotton Bowl. Texas Tech is laying nine points with a total of 60.5. In addition to the 2011 bowl betting podcast, OffshoreInsiders.com has the official betting preview.
Northwestern is 7-5 straight up, but just 3-9 against the spread, going over 7-of-11 this season. Texas Tech is 7-5 outright, but 5-6 where it really counts.
The Wildcats are much more successful passing than running. They get just 3.5 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.1, 8.2 passing yards per attempt to defenses that allow an average of 7.5 and 5.5 yards per play to 5.6.
Northwestern allows 5.1 yards per rush to teams normally getting 4.2, but they are better at stopping the pass allowing 6.7 yards per pass to teams that usually get 7.0. Overall they permit 5.9 yards per play to 5.5.
Texas Tech gets 4.1 yards per rush to squads usually permitting 4.3, but just 6.7 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.6 yards per play to 5.6.
Defensively, they are permitting 4.1 yards per rush to squads that normally accumulate 4,1, 7.5 yards per pass to 7.1 and 5.9 yards per play to 5.6.
Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Northwestern has dropped 7-of-8 overall. But they are 21-6 as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 17-5 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. On the other hand, they are 1-8 following a SU loss of more than 20 points and 0-6 after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Texas Tech is 1-6 off spread win.
Over/under trends: Wildcats have gone over 6-1 as an underdog, but under 10-2 after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Texas Tech has gone under 6-0 off spread win.
Pointwise
PROPHECY: TEXAS TECH 40 - Northwestern 24 RATING: 5
TEXAS TECH (7-5) vs NORTHWESTERN (7-5)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 1
12:00 NOON EST -- ESPNU TELEVISION
SATURDAY, JANUARY 1
12:00 NOON EST -- ESPNU TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Texas Tech . 45.8 .. 32-30 .. 24-24 .. 138-157 .. 315-306 .. - 2 . Tex Tech
N'western ... 44.2 .. 25-28 .. 22-21 .. 150-185 .. 243-231 .. - 2 . by 12.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
Texas Tech . 45.8 .. 32-30 .. 24-24 .. 138-157 .. 315-306 .. - 2 . Tex Tech
N'western ... 44.2 .. 25-28 .. 22-21 .. 150-185 .. 243-231 .. - 2 . by 12.3 Pts
ANALYSIS
What? The Raiders of Texas Tech rank 8th in the country in passing offense?
Normally that would represent an enviable accomplishment, but not when you
are discussing the Raiders. Afterall, from '02 thru '09, Tech ranked #1, #1, #1,
#1, #3, #1, #1, & #3 in passing "O". And, as we remind you every year, they've
passed the mantle down from Kingsbury, to Symons, to Crumbie, to Hodges,
to Graham, & now to Potts. An unbroken string of quality tossers, to be sure.
But, whereas the Raiders finished with the 6th, 4th, 8th, 4th, 13th, 7th, 3rd, &
8th ranked team in scoring offense, this year they check in at a dismal 34th,
topping 35 pts vs just 3 lined teams. Potts has thrown for 3,357 yds, 66%, &
31/9 (462 yds, 4 TDs vs Baylor), and that Tech running game is a full 57 ypg
better than LY, when it took MichiganSt, 41-31, in the Alamo (1st bowl cover
since '04). The Raiders floundered TY vs the likes of Texas, OklahomaSt, &
Oklahoma, but just may flourish here. The Wildcats of Northwestern play in
their 3rd straight bowl, taking both Missouri & Auburn to the wall, before tight
losses (6 & 5 pt covers). The 'Cats climbed to the #25 spot in the land, after
opening at 5-0, but that was it, a 7-5 log, with 1 win vs non-entity IllinoisSt, &
5 vs squads with a combined record of 17-43. Their shining moment came in
a comeback win over then 13th-ranked Iowa, with QB Persa throwing for 2
TDs in the final 6:21. But he ruptured his Achilles following that play, & that
was it for NW, a he was simply invaluable: 2,571 PYs,
Normally that would represent an enviable accomplishment, but not when you
are discussing the Raiders. Afterall, from '02 thru '09, Tech ranked #1, #1, #1,
#1, #3, #1, #1, & #3 in passing "O". And, as we remind you every year, they've
passed the mantle down from Kingsbury, to Symons, to Crumbie, to Hodges,
to Graham, & now to Potts. An unbroken string of quality tossers, to be sure.
But, whereas the Raiders finished with the 6th, 4th, 8th, 4th, 13th, 7th, 3rd, &
8th ranked team in scoring offense, this year they check in at a dismal 34th,
topping 35 pts vs just 3 lined teams. Potts has thrown for 3,357 yds, 66%, &
31/9 (462 yds, 4 TDs vs Baylor), and that Tech running game is a full 57 ypg
better than LY, when it took MichiganSt, 41-31, in the Alamo (1st bowl cover
since '04). The Raiders floundered TY vs the likes of Texas, OklahomaSt, &
Oklahoma, but just may flourish here. The Wildcats of Northwestern play in
their 3rd straight bowl, taking both Missouri & Auburn to the wall, before tight
losses (6 & 5 pt covers). The 'Cats climbed to the #25 spot in the land, after
opening at 5-0, but that was it, a 7-5 log, with 1 win vs non-entity IllinoisSt, &
5 vs squads with a combined record of 17-43. Their shining moment came in
a comeback win over then 13th-ranked Iowa, with QB Persa throwing for 2
TDs in the final 6:21. But he ruptured his Achilles following that play, & that
was it for NW, a he was simply invaluable: 2,571 PYs,
76%, 15/4, with 519
RYs (9 TDS). N'western then wound up its season with 48-27 & 70-23 losses.
Double digit bowl spot always daunting, but 'Cats simply can't match Raiders.
RYs (9 TDS). N'western then wound up its season with 48-27 & 70-23 losses.
Double digit bowl spot always daunting, but 'Cats simply can't match Raiders.
PROPHECY: TEXAS TECH 40 - Northwestern 24 RATING: 5
Pointwise
ALABAMA (9-3) vs MICHIGAN STATE (11-1)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
SATURDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ESPN TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Alabama ..... 49.3 .. 35-14 .. 22-16 .. 175-123 .. 260-173 .. +11 . Alabama
Mich St ....... 43.7 .. 31-20 .. 20-19 .. 169-122 .. 238-216 .. + 6 . by 10.0 Pts
ANALYSIS
Alabama ..... 49.3 .. 35-14 .. 22-16 .. 175-123 .. 260-173 .. +11 . Alabama
Mich St ....... 43.7 .. 31-20 .. 20-19 .. 169-122 .. 238-216 .. + 6 . by 10.0 Pts
ANALYSIS
As our readers are familiar with, each year's opening issue includes a column
named "The Polls", which is a compilation off all pre-season college football
"Top 25" ratings. Well, this year, the Crimson Tide of Alabama were a near
unanimous choice to repeat as national champs, with 9-of-10 first plays votes.
The Spartans of Michigan State? Nary a vote in any top 25 listing, which is a
bit puzzling, seeing that MSt has gone bowling the previous 3 years, including
a spot in this same bowl in '08. But here they are. Despite losing 9 starters
from last year's "D", which finished at #2 in total, scoring, & rushing, this year's
Tide stop unit, ranks a highly respectable 6th, 4th, & 22nd in those columns.
Only 4 teams managed to top 13 pts vs 'Bama, but 3 of those represented
losses (1 more than combined 26-2 '08 & '09 log), including their finale, which
saw the 'Tide leading 24-0, but losing 28-27. That marked the 1st time that a
'Bama gridiron team had ever blown a 24-pt lead. LY's Heisman winner, Ingram
ranks just 48th in rushing TY (816 yds, 11 TDs). QB McElroy a solid 2,767 yds,
71%, 19/5. The Spartans tied for the Big10 title, but missed out on a BCS slot.
MSt's head coach Dontanio served under Saban at MichSt from '95 thru '99,
so a bit of a side bar. Spartans are led by QB Cousins: 68%, 20/9, along with
the RB tandem of Backer & Bell (1,779 yds, 21 TDs). MSt has reached 30 pts
in 9 games, but note just 109 RYpg in their final 6 contests, while losing their
last dog role by a 37-6 score (3 Cousin INTs). And Spartans have dropped 4
straight bowls. Can't dismiss Tide's complete collapse in '09 Sugar Bowl (31-
17 loss to Utah: 23½ pt ATS loss), following SEC title defeat. Learn from that.
PROPHECY: ALABAMA 33 - Michigan State 17 RATING: 5named "The Polls", which is a compilation off all pre-season college football
"Top 25" ratings. Well, this year, the Crimson Tide of Alabama were a near
unanimous choice to repeat as national champs, with 9-of-10 first plays votes.
The Spartans of Michigan State? Nary a vote in any top 25 listing, which is a
bit puzzling, seeing that MSt has gone bowling the previous 3 years, including
a spot in this same bowl in '08. But here they are. Despite losing 9 starters
from last year's "D", which finished at #2 in total, scoring, & rushing, this year's
Tide stop unit, ranks a highly respectable 6th, 4th, & 22nd in those columns.
Only 4 teams managed to top 13 pts vs 'Bama, but 3 of those represented
losses (1 more than combined 26-2 '08 & '09 log), including their finale, which
saw the 'Tide leading 24-0, but losing 28-27. That marked the 1st time that a
'Bama gridiron team had ever blown a 24-pt lead. LY's Heisman winner, Ingram
ranks just 48th in rushing TY (816 yds, 11 TDs). QB McElroy a solid 2,767 yds,
71%, 19/5. The Spartans tied for the Big10 title, but missed out on a BCS slot.
MSt's head coach Dontanio served under Saban at MichSt from '95 thru '99,
so a bit of a side bar. Spartans are led by QB Cousins: 68%, 20/9, along with
the RB tandem of Backer & Bell (1,779 yds, 21 TDs). MSt has reached 30 pts
in 9 games, but note just 109 RYpg in their final 6 contests, while losing their
last dog role by a 37-6 score (3 Cousin INTs). And Spartans have dropped 4
straight bowls. Can't dismiss Tide's complete collapse in '09 Sugar Bowl (31-
17 loss to Utah: 23½ pt ATS loss), following SEC title defeat. Learn from that.
Pointwise
PROPHECY: PENN STATE 27 - Florida 24 RATING: 4
FLORIDA (7-5) vs PENN STATE (7-5)
SATURDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
SATURDAY, JANUARY 1
1:00 PM EST -- ABC TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Florida ........ 48.8 .. 29-21 .. 19-18 .. 166-130 .. 191-173.. - 1 . Florida
Penn St ....... 46.0 .. 25-23 .. 19-18 .. 143-165 .. 231-188.. - 1 . by 0.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Florida ........ 48.8 .. 29-21 .. 19-18 .. 166-130 .. 191-173.. - 1 . Florida
Penn St ....... 46.0 .. 25-23 .. 19-18 .. 143-165 .. 231-188.. - 1 . by 0.4 Pts
ANALYSIS
Another bowl, another match between the Nittany Lions of Penn State, & the
Gators of Florida. For those with short memories, surely the '62 Gator Bowl, &
the '97 Citrus pop to mind. Yes, that's it as far as any previous series history is
concerned. By the way, the Gators prevailed by 17-7 & 21-6 respectively, in
those meetings, holding 23-9 FD & 397-139 yd edges in the latter. This has
been a down season for both squads, especially for the Gators, who posted
brilliant 13-1 records in 3 of the last 4 years, while capturing 2 BCS National
Titles. The past 3 years, Florida finished 3rd, 4th, & 10th in scoring offense,
but check in at #48 this time around, & whereas their scoring "D" ranked 4th &
4th in '08 & '09, comes in at #31 this year. It's 5 losses are its most since '04,
the year before the arrival of Urban Meyer. Losing the likes of Tim Tebow, & to
an extent, Cam Newton, have proven too much. So much so, that this will be
his last game with the Gators, with this retirement seemingly permanent. Note
that Florida lost 3 games by at least 20 pts. QB Brantley blows hot-&-cold (just
9/9), & that fabled overhead game ranks an unfathomable 85th this season.
Similarly, the Nits have come from a pair of 11-2 campaigns, to a struggling log
of 7-5. They averaged only
Gators of Florida. For those with short memories, surely the '62 Gator Bowl, &
the '97 Citrus pop to mind. Yes, that's it as far as any previous series history is
concerned. By the way, the Gators prevailed by 17-7 & 21-6 respectively, in
those meetings, holding 23-9 FD & 397-139 yd edges in the latter. This has
been a down season for both squads, especially for the Gators, who posted
brilliant 13-1 records in 3 of the last 4 years, while capturing 2 BCS National
Titles. The past 3 years, Florida finished 3rd, 4th, & 10th in scoring offense,
but check in at #48 this time around, & whereas their scoring "D" ranked 4th &
4th in '08 & '09, comes in at #31 this year. It's 5 losses are its most since '04,
the year before the arrival of Urban Meyer. Losing the likes of Tim Tebow, & to
an extent, Cam Newton, have proven too much. So much so, that this will be
his last game with the Gators, with this retirement seemingly permanent. Note
that Florida lost 3 games by at least 20 pts. QB Brantley blows hot-&-cold (just
9/9), & that fabled overhead game ranks an unfathomable 85th this season.
Similarly, the Nits have come from a pair of 11-2 campaigns, to a struggling log
of 7-5. They averaged only
13 ppg in their first 5 lined affairs, losing 3 of those
5. But they've certainly improved since, behind former walk-on QB McGloin,
who's led Nits to 4-2 windup, while averaging 31 ppg. Overland, RB Royster is
still their horse, but is 214 yds below his '09 mark. And like the Gators, the Nits
have lost 4 games by at least 20 pts. This marks Paterno's 37th bowl, with a
5. But they've certainly improved since, behind former walk-on QB McGloin,
who's led Nits to 4-2 windup, while averaging 31 ppg. Overland, RB Royster is
still their horse, but is 214 yds below his '09 mark. And like the Gators, the Nits
have lost 4 games by at least 20 pts. This marks Paterno's 37th bowl, with a
24-11-1
log (unmatched). We'll take the TD spot, despite bowl series history.
PROPHECY: PENN STATE 27 - Florida 24 RATING: 4
