DCI NBA
Season
Straight Up: 311-144 (.684)
ATS: 226-241 (.484)
ATS Vary Units: 641-687 (.483)
Over/Under: 232-245 (.486)
Over/Under Vary Units: 297-300 (.497)
New Orleans 96, WASHINGTON 94
CHICAGO 103, Cleveland 89
MIAMI 109, Golden State 96
MINNESOTA 103, New Jersey 100
SAN ANTONIO 106, Oklahoma City 97
Dallas 92, MILWAUKEE 89
DENVER 112, Sacramento 96
UTAH 105, Memphis 97
Season
Straight Up: 311-144 (.684)
ATS: 226-241 (.484)
ATS Vary Units: 641-687 (.483)
Over/Under: 232-245 (.486)
Over/Under Vary Units: 297-300 (.497)
New Orleans 96, WASHINGTON 94
CHICAGO 103, Cleveland 89
MIAMI 109, Golden State 96
MINNESOTA 103, New Jersey 100
SAN ANTONIO 106, Oklahoma City 97
Dallas 92, MILWAUKEE 89
DENVER 112, Sacramento 96
UTAH 105, Memphis 97
DCI NCAA CBB
Season
Straight Up: 1588-420 (.791)
ATS: 578-613 (.485)
ATS Vary Units: 2023-2028 (.499)
Over/Under: 555-572 (.492)
Over/Under Vary Units: 876-972 (.474)
Hilltop Challenge
at San Francisco, CA
Colorado State 70, Hampton 57
Big East Conference
GEORGETOWN 85, DePaul 61
PROVIDENCE 81, St. John's 78
SYRACUSE 77, Notre Dame 69
West Virginia vs. MARQUETTE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Horizon League
BUTLER 80, Valparaiso 60
CLEVELAND STATE 74, Uic 54
DETROIT 72, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 64
Loyola (Chicago) 69, YOUNGSTOWN STATE 67
WRIGHT STATE 66, Green Bay 56
Missouri Valley Conference
CREIGHTON 68, Drake 57
Indiana State 67, EVANSVILLE 65
MISSOURI STATE 70, Illinois State 54
Northern Iowa 61, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 53
Wichita State 69, BRADLEY 62
Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona State 66, OREGON 64
Summit League
South Dakota State 77, SOUTHERN UTAH 69
Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 71, Western Kentucky 69
NORTH TEXAS 81, Louisiana-Lafayette 64
Non-Conference
Boston College vs. SOUTH CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DAYTON 69, New Mexico 66
NC STATE 74, San Diego 54
SAINT LOUIS 66, Bowling Green State 53
Season
Straight Up: 1588-420 (.791)
ATS: 578-613 (.485)
ATS Vary Units: 2023-2028 (.499)
Over/Under: 555-572 (.492)
Over/Under Vary Units: 876-972 (.474)
Hilltop Challenge
at San Francisco, CA
Colorado State 70, Hampton 57
Big East Conference
GEORGETOWN 85, DePaul 61
PROVIDENCE 81, St. John's 78
SYRACUSE 77, Notre Dame 69
West Virginia vs. MARQUETTE: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Horizon League
BUTLER 80, Valparaiso 60
CLEVELAND STATE 74, Uic 54
DETROIT 72, Wisconsin-Milwaukee 64
Loyola (Chicago) 69, YOUNGSTOWN STATE 67
WRIGHT STATE 66, Green Bay 56
Missouri Valley Conference
CREIGHTON 68, Drake 57
Indiana State 67, EVANSVILLE 65
MISSOURI STATE 70, Illinois State 54
Northern Iowa 61, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 53
Wichita State 69, BRADLEY 62
Pacific-10 Conference
Arizona State 66, OREGON 64
Summit League
South Dakota State 77, SOUTHERN UTAH 69
Sun Belt Conference
ARKANSAS STATE 71, Western Kentucky 69
NORTH TEXAS 81, Louisiana-Lafayette 64
Non-Conference
Boston College vs. SOUTH CAROLINA: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
DAYTON 69, New Mexico 66
NC STATE 74, San Diego 54
SAINT LOUIS 66, Bowling Green State 53
A.Reddd
Saturday's Plays
75 Dime Release on Michigan State as the dog over Alabama. As this play is releised at 4 AM Pacific, the Spartans are currently getting 9 1/2 points in this contest.
20 Dime 1st Half Release on Michigan State as the dog over Alabama. The Spartans are currently getting 6 points in the 1st Half of this contest.
20 Dime Release on Mississippi State over Michigan. The Bulldogs are currently a 3 1/2 points favoreite in this contest.
20 Dime Release on Texas Christlan over Wisconsin. The Horned Frogs are currently a 3 point favorite in this contest.
Saturday's Plays
75 Dime Release on Michigan State as the dog over Alabama. As this play is releised at 4 AM Pacific, the Spartans are currently getting 9 1/2 points in this contest.
20 Dime 1st Half Release on Michigan State as the dog over Alabama. The Spartans are currently getting 6 points in the 1st Half of this contest.
20 Dime Release on Mississippi State over Michigan. The Bulldogs are currently a 3 1/2 points favoreite in this contest.
20 Dime Release on Texas Christlan over Wisconsin. The Horned Frogs are currently a 3 point favorite in this contest.
Strong Opinions
Texas Tech (-9.5) 33 Northwestern 26 (at TicketCity Bowl)
09:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-11
Florida (-7.0) 28 Penn St. 19 (at Outback Bowl)
10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-11
Alabama (-10.0) 32 Michigan St. 19 (at Capital One Bowl)
10:00 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-11
Mississippi St. (-4.5) 33 Michigan 30 (at Gator Bowl)
10:30 AM Pacific, 01-Jan-11
Oklahoma (-16.5) 36 Connecticut 18 (at Fiesta Bowl)
05:30 PM Pacific, 01-Jan-11
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEPS:
OVERALL: 8-14
4* = 1-2
3*= 1-4
2* = 4-5
1* = 2-3
FORECAST: N’western (+) TT by 3 RATING: 3★ NORTHWESTERN (+)
This is the inaugural year of the TicketCity Bowl which will be played at the Cotton Bowl and fittingly this is the 1st matchup for these programs. The Raiders return to the post season for the 11th str year (6-4 SU/4-6 ATS) and they are the only tm in the B12 to be bowl elig every ssn in the conf’s existence. TT is now led by Tuberville who is 6-3 SU/ATS in bowls in his career. NW is headed to its 3rd str bowl under Fitzgerald who is 0-2 SU/2-0 ATS in his career and he has made it the program’s goal to win a bowl gm for the 1st time S/’48 (lost L/7). TT played Baylor in this stadium on Oct 9th beating the bowl bound Bears 45-38 as a 1 pt fav while this is the Cats 1st trip here. TT will have a significant crowd edge as Lubbock is a 6 hr drive from Dallas and they have many alums in the area. NW went 1-4 SU/ATS vs bowl teams getting outscored 41-24 and outgained 495-355. TT went 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS being outscored 34-26 and outgained 492-455. The Raiders went 2-1-1 as an AF TY while the Cats were 0-3 as an dog outside of Ryan Field with 2 contests coming after 1st Tm B10 QB Persa was KO’d for the ssn.
After throwing the GW TD pass to knock off Iowa, Persa ruptured his Achilles tendon. Persa had accounted for 75.5% of NW’s offense and his 73.5% comp set a school record and is #2 in B10 history. His replacement is 6’6” pocket passer Watkins who hit 129 (55%) with a 1-4 ratio (49 rush) in his 2 sts and the Cats actually burned the RS of the more mobile Colten for the L/2. The 2 QB’s comb for 6 TO’s in the finale loss to Wisky and Ftizgerald vowed the squad would get right back to work with pract so the frosh QB’s could get more exp before the bowl. The Cats started 4 diff TB’s before finally settling on Trumpy whose 80 yd TD run vs IL was the Cats’ longest S/‘82 although he missed the finale and is ? here (fractured wrist). WR Ebert stepped up as all star caliber TE/SB Dunsmore battled inj’s. The OL (6’5” 303, 1 Sr) all’d the most sk among bowl tms (39, 11%). The DL is led by DE Browne who has 7 of their 8.5 sks up front. Nate Williams is the top tackler among the LB’s but the unit has a tendency to overpursue which opens up cutback lanes which IL’s OC Petrino cited as a reason for the Illini’s 519 rush yds. NW finished #36 pass eff D (231, 59%, 21-14) led by #1 tkl’r S Peters and top cover CB Mabin. K Demos struggled at times (missing 2 FG’s in the Purdue loss) and would like to atone for missing the potential GW in LY’s wild OT bowl loss to Auburn. P Williams is #3 B10 in net (38.2) with good placement (18 FC) and their 3.3 ypr all’d is #4 in the NCAA. True Fr Mark set a school record with 273 KR yds vs Wisky including a 94 yd TD.
Tuberville vowed to keep the Air Raid offense but he added more of an emphasis on the run gm and after running for over 140 yd in a gm 18x in the previous 10Y, the Raiders did it 7x TY led by the combo of Batch and Stephens. The pass #’s shrunk as expected -72 ypg although QB Potts finished as the B12’s #3 passer. After Potts was briefly benched for fan favorite Sheffield who got the start vs MO, he returned to finish out the yr. The receiving corps battled inj’s to #3 rec Torres and #5 Franks but Leong finished #2 FBS in TD rec. The OL (6’5” 313) struggled early on with run blocking after lining up in wide splits under Leach but improved with exp (no Sr’s) and allowed 21 sk (3.7%). The D also had a major scheme change as they went to a 3-4. Depth was a major issue and Tuberville numerous times bemoaned the unit’s lack of speed until he eventually said the best way for them to win was to simply outscore people. 1st Tm B12 NT Whitlock was solid in the middle with the top sk’r being ex-LB Duncan. LB Bird was the tm’s top tkl’r. Inj’s really hit the secondary hard as TT’s pass D finished dead last in the FBS ypg all’d although they were #87 in our pass eff D (306, 62%, 27-14). TT was #36 in ST’s even though they allowed onside K’s to be ret’d for TD’s in B2B gms vs ISU and Baylor. P LaCour’s net of 38.8 was #16 NCAA and KR Stephens remains 1 of the B12’s best. PR Lewis (6.2) was mediocre and the K gm was an adventure as Williams and Carona combined to hit 9-14 with 3 blk’s. The Raiders allowed 5.8 on PR and 20.7 on PR and blk’d 2 P’s.
A disappointing finish for NW, losing by 21 and 47 after losing QB Persa. No question, Fitzgerald will have new QB Watkins ready with the extra prep time. TT finished the season with wins vs Weber and Houston but did not beat a BCS team by more than 7 pts on the season. Give the edge to the better defense with the better coach getting the generous points
FORECAST: Penn St vs Florida RATING: NO PLAY
A topsy-turvy ssn comes to an end on NY’s day for UF and PSU. UF has won both prev matchups in the ‘62 Gator and the ‘98 FL Citrus (21-6, -13’). PSU plays in its 4th ever Outback Bowl going 3-0 SU/ATS. Paterno is the all-time bowl win leader going 24-11-1 SU/22-10-1 ATS and is 7-2 SU/ATS L/9 vs SEC tms in bowls. UF is playing in their 20th consec bowl (2nd longest in nation) and Meyer is 6-1 SU/ATS in bowls incl 4-1 at UF. This is UF’s 4th trip to the Outback (1-2 SU/ATS). UF’s fans are used to more prestigious bowls w/BCS bids in 3 of the L/4Y but UF will clearly have the home crowd edge as fans will come out to support Meyer in his last gm. UF is 3-2 SU/ATS on the road (incl OT win vs GA) TY. PSU went 0-3 SU/ATS as an AD TY losing all 3 to ‘09 BCS bowl winners. PSU now faces a 4th BCS bowl winner here (1st tm in history) but also lost 4 gms by 20+ for the 1st time in tm history. PSU is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS vs bowl tms being outscored 27-19 and outgained 372-361 while UF is 5-5 SU/4-6 ATS vs bowl tms but outscored those tms 25-23 (outgained them 326-325). Both lost to AL but UF actually outgained the Tide 281-273 while PSU was outgained 409-283.
Rob Bolden became the 1st true Fr QB to start in the Paterno era. Bolden struggled getting the ball downfield causing D’s to put more players in the box to stop PSU’s all-time leading rusher Royster. When Bolden was hurt vs Minn, McGloin came off of the bench to hit 6-13 and 2 TD’s. In his 1st start he led the Lions to a win over Mich with their biggest yd and pt totals of the ssn. Bolden started vs NW but McGloin led them to PSU’s biggest comeback ever (trailing 21-0). Vs OSU McGloin threw the 1st PSU TD passes of the B10 era in Columbus while taking PSU to a 14-3 HT lead. In the 2H he threw 2 pick sixes but he started the L/2 with Paterno naming him the bowl’s QB starter. Top WR Moye’s play picked up with McGloin at QB. Although all 5 OL (6’3” 301, 1 Sr) ply’d a diff position LY PSU all’d just 12 sks (3.1%). Thanks to inj’s and attrition the D never quite lived up to the standards of recent editions (top 15 NCAA scoring and ttl D from ‘04-’09). The star up front is DT Ogbu with the DE’s probably the unit’s most banged up position. The LB’s also had their inj woes as top LB Mauti missed the L/2 (shldr). PSU had the #64 pass eff D (188, 62%, 19-9). The ST finished #38 although PSU will be w/o their top P Fera who missed the L/2 and was replaced by walk-on true Fr Butterworth and the tm finished w/a 38.4 net. K Wagner hit 8-10 from 40+. PSU all’d 7.3 on PR and 20.7 on KR.
Tough yr for mighty UF as the off took a nosedive w/o QB Tebow and struggled with inj’s at RB all yr. QB Brantley is more of a pure passer and not well suited to the Tebow-ran off, so adjustments were eventually made w/TE Reed and bkup QB Burton serving as the Tebow-like QB’s while Brantley remained the st’r and threw most of the passes. RB Demps is one of the fastest players in the nation (Olympic trials 100m) but suffered from a foot inj which limited him almost all yr (2 gms missed-won’t be 100% for bowl). After his 5 gm susp, WR Rainey helped out at RB and WR and is one of the top off threats on the tm. The OL (6’4” 322, 4 Sr) was shaky w/OG Mike Pouncey moving to C to take over for his twin brother Maurkice (1st RD DC). In the opener snaps were flying everywhere and UF was held below 100 yds rushing in 4 gms TY (Mia OH, AL, LSU, SC) and only 1 LY (AL) with the rush avg falling from 222 ypg (5.6) in ‘09 to 166 ypg (4.3) TY. Overall UF finished #32 on off and #13 on D. New DC Austin faced a tough rebuilding job replacing 5 DC’s (all 1st 3 Rd’s). They all’d 50 ypg more than LY (303 ypg) and 8.7 ppg more. UF’s D only generated 21 sks (tied #10 SEC) after from 39 LY. The DL avg 6’3” 278 with 3 Sr st’rs but loses DL cch McCarney who was hired as NT’s HC. UF all’d 130 ypg rush, its most S/’04. One bright spot is the secondary that is #11 in our pass D rankings all’g 173 ypg (55%) with a 16-17 ratio led by #1 tkl’r S Black and CB Jenkins. The ST’s are always strong (#3) with P Henry leading the nation in avg and net. One weak spot is kicking as P Henry was forced to take over for the inj’d Sturgis.
If we told you PSU was facing UF in a bowl - it wouldn’t be with a pair of 7-5 tms. If we told you that it was Meyer vs Paterno and one was going to retire - it wouldn’t be Meyer. While we initially sided with PSU, Meyer’s sudden retirement has caused us to reevaluate this game as we wait to see how the team and fan base responds.
FORECAST: Alabama by 21 RATING: 4★ ALABAMA
This bowl pairs AL HC Nick Saban vs his former tm where he was 34-24-1 from ‘95-’99 with MSU HC Dantonio serving as his DB cch. This is the 1st meeting between these 2 and the 1st time Saban’s faced MSU since leaving there. MSU won a share of the B10 Title for the 1st time S/‘90 and now plays in just their 3rd Jan bowl S/’89. Moments after the ND win B10 Cch of the Yr Dantonio suffered a mild heart attack and the tm was led to 2 wins incl 1 over Wisky by OC Treadwell. The team rallied for incredible 4Q comebacks vs NW and Purdue to finish with a program record 11 wins. This is the Spartans’ 4th bowl under Dantonio (0-3 SU/1-2 ATS). MSU has played their bowl game in Orlando 3 out of the L/4Y (‘07, ‘08) and is 1-1 SU/ATS in this bowl, losing 24-12 to UGA and QB Stafford as an 8’ pt dog in ‘08. The Spartans are 3-8 as dog the L/3Y (2-1 TY). AL was selected over LSU because they have never played in the Capital One while LSU was here LY. Saban is 5-6 SU/ATS in bowls (2-1 SU/ATS at Bama). Orlando is about a 9 hr drive from Tuscaloosa so the Tide should have a strong fan following for this one. UA is 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS vs bowl tms TY outscoring those tms by 27-17 and outgaining them by 462-333. MSU is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outgaining those tms by 410-356. Both tms faced PSU with AL winning 24-3 (409-283 edge) and MSU winning 28-22 (outgained 396-331).
MSU’s off leader is QB Cousins who fought off shldr and ankle inj’s to score the GW TD vs Purdue to cap a 22 pt 4Q. He should be 100% with the time off and finished #19 NCAA pass eff. MSU had over 200 rush yd in their first 4 for the 1st time S/’68 and RB Baker became just the 6th MSU soph to run for 1,000 yds. The rec corps is deep with 5 WR and 2 TE’s seeing regular action incl WR’s Dell and Cunningham and All-B10 TE Gantt. The OL (6’5” 300, 3 Sr) all’d 19 sk (5.5%) with a strong left side (LG Foreman and LT Young). The Spartans have our #37 off and #32 D. MSU’s star up front is Worthy who led the tm in sks with just 4 from his DT spot. The LB’s feature the FBS’s most productive duo in AA Jones and Gordon who were the tm’s top 2 tkl’rs. After allowing a 32-6 ratio in ‘09 (#103 pass eff D), the Spartans improved to 18-17 TY (#22) with all 4 st’rs named All-B10. MSU’s 3 biggest plays of the season came on ST: the blk’d punt vs PU, “Little Giants”: the fake FG in which holder Bates hit TE Gantt for a 28 yd TD pass to beat ND and the “Mousetrap”: trailing NW 24-14 in the 4Q, a fake P on 4&11 at the NW36 in which Bates hit a 21 yd pass to Fowler. P Bates led the B10 in avg and was #2 in net (38.2). K Conroy hit his 1st 13 FG’s in the 1st 7 gms before cooling off to hit just 1-2 in the final 5. Martin led the league in PR at 14.2 incl the pivotal 74 yd TD vs Wisky. The Spartans allow 8.7 on PR and 21.1 on KR and finished #49 in ST.
After AL earned their first Nat’l Title since ‘92 LY, a 9-3 ssn seems disappointing. Still this is one of the most talented teams in the country with their only losses to 2 squads in the SEC Title gm and 10-2 LSU. QB McElroy entered the ssn 30-0 as a starting QB in HS and college (now 39-3). McElroy was still efficient but held onto the ball too long resulting in 32 sks (+12 from LY). 2009 Heisman winner RB Ingram is a Michigan native but suffered a knee inj in Aug and missed the 1st 2. Backup Richardson suffered a knee inj midssn and also missed 2. The rushing production fell by 40 ypg (175, 5.0). On the bright side super WR Jones stayed healthy TY for his 1st 1,000 yd ssn. The OL avg 6’4” 301 with 1 Sr st’r. Overall AL has our #13 off and #2 def. Super DE Dareus was susp the 1st 2 and he was the most exp plyr returning to the DL in ‘10. The DL starters avg 6’3” 312 with 0 Sr’s. LB Hightower ret’d TY after a knee inj cut his ‘09 ssn short but wasn’t as dominating as expected and JLB Upshaw led the tm in sks and tfl. The secondary was quite inexperienced heading into the ssn but developed nicely with new FS Lester leading the SEC in int. AL ranks #4 in our pass D rankings all’g 173 ypg (53%) with an excellent 11-21 ratio vs a strong slate of opposing QB’s. A big loss is AL defensive leader SS Barron who will miss the bowl with a torn pectoral muscle. AL is #18 in our ST rankings led by excellent PR Maze and KR Richardson.
There’s only one question in this entire writeup and that’s motivation. Take a look at the checklist and you’ll see it’s a complete shutout as Bama has a 14’-0 edge. While the loss to Aub will be tough to rebound from, we have to believe that they’ll consider a 10 win season a success. MSU was hoping for a BCS berth but the truth is, the last time they faced a quality D on the road they were destroyed 37-6 to Iowa (trailed 30-0 at half).
FORECAST: OVER 59 Michigan/Miss St RATING: 2★ OVER
Michigan returns to the postssn for the 1st time S/’07 and their 1st ever matchup with Miss St. This is UM’s 3rd appearance in the Gator Bowl (1-1 SU/ATS) with their last visit in ‘90 and they are 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS in bowls vs SEC tms. Rich Rod is 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in bowls. MSU makes its 1st bowl appearance S/’07’s Liberty Bowl win over UCF. It is Mullen’s 1st bowl gm as a HC but of course he was part of Urban Meyer’s FL and Utah staffs that went to bowls. This is MSU’s 1st NY’s Day bowl S/’99 and just the 10th meeting with a current B10 tm (Illini in ‘80). The Bulldogs sold out their original allotment of tix even before the destination was announced and asked for more while UM will bring fans for its 1st bowl in 3 yrs. MSU is 3-2 SU/ATS on the road TY and covered both times they were a road fav incl a 5H GOM Winner for us vs Hou. UM is 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS on the road TY. MSU is 3-4 SU/ATS vs bowl tms TY getting outscored 21-17 and outgained 378-312 while UM is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS vs bowl tms being outscored 37-30 and just slightly outgained 479-475.
Rodriguez finally found the perfect QB in B10’s OPY Robinson to run his spread. FL native Robinson exploded for UM QB ttl off records in his 1st 2 sts, earning nat’l POW honors vs Conn and ND. Robinson was considered the front runner for the Heisman until his 3 int vs Mich St (2 in EZ) doomed UM and D’s learned how to contain him. He also was banged up as he left several gms due to inj. Robinson still finished the ssn with a IA QB rush record 1,643 yds and became the first IA QB to run for 1,500 yds and throw for 2,000. UM went with a RB-by-committee as leading TB rusher Smith wasn’t quite 100% to start the yr. The leading receiver was Roundtree who had a UM record 246 yd vs IL but struggled with drops. The OL (6’5” 302, 2 Sr) is anchored by All-B10 C Molk. UM all’d just 11 sks and their 5.7 ypc led the B10. UM was held to fewer than 27 pts just twice TY by B10 co-champs MSU and OSU and finished as our #8 off. Attrition caused the Wolves to play 6 true Fr on D (#80). DC Robinson’s controversial 3-3-5 struggled all’g the most yds and pts in UM hist incl 39 ppg in B10 play (7 of 8 scored 34+). NT Martin is the top D player but he’s routinely doubled. He suffered a sprained ankle vs Iowa and wasn’t 100% the rest of the year. LB Mouton led the league in tkls for most of the yr before being edged out by S Kovacs in the finale. By yr’s end UM was starting 2 true Fr, an ex-walk-on and a journeyman Sr in the secondary which finished #95 pass eff D (260, 63%, 18-11). K’s Gibbons and Broekhuizen comb to hit just 4-13 FG (L/37). P Hagerup avg’d an impressive 43.6 as a true and will return after being susp’d vs OSU. Top returnman Gallon avg’d just 4.3 on PR and 21.8 on KR. The Wolves allow 9.8 on PR’s and 21.4 on KR’s. Questions on Rich Rod’s future could be a distraction.
MSU surprised some folks TY with a strong squad playing in the brutal SEC West with an 8-4 record which was quite an accomplishment. Along the way HC Mullen defeated his mentor Meyer in the Swamp and came close vs BCS-bound Ark losing in 2OT. Their #53 offense is a cookie-cutter of Meyer’s UF off with a strong run gm led by mobile QB Relf. Passing QB Russell split time with Relf early in the yr, but after the 2 comb for 5 int vs LSU, the pass gm was scaled back and Relf took most of the snaps the rest of the yr. Top RB Ballard took over as the st’r in gm 3 and was very productive finishing #3 in the SEC in scoring (9.3 ppg). Big play WR Berry was lost to inj in gm 6 but could return here. The OL has been solid in run blocking as MSU is #2 in the SEC in rush ypg (216, 4.6), but all’d 22 sks (9.0%). The OL starters avg 6’3” 303 with 2 Sr st’rs led by LT Sherrod who is projected as one of the top OT’s for the ‘11 draft. MSU is #16 in our def rankings. The whole team was rocked by tragedy when starting DE Nick Bell (3 sts) was diagnosed with a brain tumor and eventually died during the tm’s bye wk (Nov 6th). MSU all’d 122 rush ypg (3.6) with 26 sks and the tm’s sk leader was LB White (6). White was highly productive finishing #4 in the SEC in tkls and tfl. MSU is #29 in our pass D rankings all’g 236 ypg (57%) with a 17-12 ratio. MSU has faced 2 QB’s similar to Robinson TY (Newton and Masoli) and held Aub to a ssn low 17 pts (Newton 70 rush yd, 136 pass) and Masoli (12 rush, 261 pass). Rumors of Mullen being a candidate for multiple jobs could be a distraction.
These two teams have provided us with three Bowl or Game of the Year Winners! Michigan’s offense obviously runs thru Robinson and despite the extra practice, we don’t expect much improvement from the D. The Bulldogs are potent enough on offense for us to anticipate a high scoring gm.
FORECAST: TCU by 6 RATING: 1★ TCU
TCU trailed Boise most of the yr in the AP polls, but jumped them in the BCS standings after a 47-7 blowout of then-undefeated Utah. TCU breathed a sigh of relief with Nevada’s upset of the Broncos which assured them of becoming the 1st non-AQ to make consecutive BCS bowls and the 1st to play in the Rose Bowl. TCU easily sold its allotment of 20,000 tix while UW has a 35,000 allotment and outnumbered P10 fans in their 3 recent trips to Pasadena. Patterson is 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS in bowls losing LY’s Fiesta Bowl to Boise,17-10 (-7). The final BCS standings officially gave UW the B10’s nod as they were co-champs with MSU and OSU all tied at 11-1 (7-1 in B10 play). This is the Badgers 7th trip to Pasadena (1st S/’99) where they are 3-3 SU winning their L/3 (2-1 ATS). Under Bielema UW is 2-2 SU/ATS in bowls with this being their 1st BCS bid. They both faced UNLV in LV as the Frogs (-34’) won 48-6 on 10/30 (30-12 FD and 530-197 yd edges). UW (-20) beat the Rebels 41-21 in the opener (23-10 FD and 475-217 yd edges). TCU was fav’d in every gm TY but this is only the 2nd gm (Utah -5) where the line has been under 13. UW was 2-0 SU/ATS as a dog TY with their 2 biggest wins of the yr B2B vs OSU and at Iowa.
TCU flat out dominated opp’s TY outscoring them 43-11 behind their vaunted D. The closest game for the Frogs was a 5 pt win over underrated SDSt. TCU fell behind 14-0 (its biggest deficit TY) but scored 37 unanswered before all’g SDSt to battle back. The #10 offense has had some slow starts TY as the Frogs had leads of just 14 or less at halftime 5x’s incl 3 gms of single-digit leads. Sr QB Dalton (1st Tm MWC) does not hesitate to make plays with his feet (407 rush) and is #5 NCAA pass eff. RB Wesley is the first Frog over 1,000 yds rushing S/’03. For the first time S/’03-’04, TCU has 2 rec’s with more than 500 yds in B2B seasons. The OL avg 6’4” 317 with 4 Sr st’rs. Led by two 1st Tm MWC’ers (incl Rimington winner Kirkpatrick), they pave the way for 261 ypg (5.5) while giving up 9 sks (2.9%). TCU placed 8 defenders on the first two All-MWC teams. They lead the NCAA in many categories and our #3 D. The DL (6’2” 281), with 3 Sr starters, has totaled 17.5 of the tm’s 25 sks. LB Brock leads TCU in tkls. The Frogs rank #2 in our pass eff D led by 1st Tm MWC Johnson and had 3 IR TD’s TY. The ST’s unit (#9) is led by Kerley who avg an outstanding 12.9 on PR and 28.0 on KR. P Kelton has landed 15 In20 and the PR D is giving up 7.2 (KR D 20.5).
Johnny Unitas QB Awd Winner Tolzien (#5 NCAA pass eff) leads the NCAA in comp % which is also a new B10 record. UW is the only team in B10 history to avg 40+ in conf play and have 3 RB who have at least 13 rush TD. HC Bielema immediately saw the power/speed potential in B10’s ‘09 OPY Clay and true Fr White. Clay became the 1st back in 29 gms to have 100 yds vs Ohio St but suffered a knee inj missing the L/3. #3 TB Ball scored the GW TD vs Iowa and ran for 645 yd and 13 TD in the L/4. The WR corps struggled with inj’s as their top 2 (Toon and Gilreath) missed 4 and 2. Mackey finalist TE Kendricks led the squad in rec. The true stars are the OL (6’5” 321, 3 Sr) led by B10 OL of the Yr/Outland winner LT Carimi. UW ran for less than 150 yds just once (142 vs Iowa) and they all’d just 12 sks (4.7%). UW (#12 off) also had the NCAA’s fewest pens per gm and was tied for the NCAA lead with just 9 TO’s lost. All-B10 DE Watt leads the DL (avg 6’4” 279) with big plays in big gms. Wisky (#37 D) suffered a huge loss when LY’s B10 Fr of the Yr LB Borland was KO’d (shoulder) and Taylor led the unit in tfl. The secondary (#32 pass eff D all’g 192, 56%, 19-14) cut down on big plays. ST’s (#68) have been the source of big plays TY for both the Badgers and their opponents. After allowing KR’s of 97 and 95 yds vs Arizona St, the Badgers blk’d the gm tying xp in a 1 pt win. A 74 yd PR TD keyed MSU’s win but perhaps the biggest play of the season was Gilreath’s 97 yd KR TD on the opening KO vs OSU.
There have been times when non-AQ teams have reached a BCS bowl without being truly deserving but this is not one of them as this Horned Frogs unit has both an excellent offense and defense. They’ll look forward to the challenge of their 2nd straight BCS game. Wisky comes in as B10 Champs and is now an underdog to a MWC team in the Rose Bowl. They’ll play the disrespect card and it will be a great matchup with their big physical OL and trio of solid RB’s vs the TCU front 7.
FORECAST: Oklahoma by 28 RATING: 3★ OKLAHOMA
These programs come in from opposite ends of the spectrum for their 1st ever meeting as this is UC’s 1st ever BCS Bowl while it is OU’s 8th. The Huskies come in as the biggest dog of the BCS gms at +17’. Conn won a share of the BE Title and UC HC Edsall is 3-1 SU/ATS in bowls incl LY’s upset of SC as 3’ pt dogs. OU won their 7th B12 Title but has lost their L/5 BCS gms SU/ATS incl being upset in B2B yrs (‘06-’07) in the Fiesta Bowl where they are 1-3 SU/ATS. Stoops is 5-6 SU/3-8 ATS in bowls. The tms both faced Cincy TY with the Huskies (-2’) winning 38-17 at home on Nov 27th despite being outgained 399-357 while OU (-14) edged the Bearcats 31-29 despite being outgained 461-452. UC was 2-4 SU/ATS on the road TY but finished the ssn with 2 str outright upsets as an AD. OU had struggled on the road until winning their L/3 outside of Norman for the conf crown. Both are young with UC having only 5 Sr starters while OU has just 4.
The Huskies began the ssn with high hopes coming off their upset of SC in LY’s bowl. Prospects looked bleak after they began the ssn 3-4 with losses to Temple and Rutgers that had some calling for Edsall to be ousted. UC went on to upset BE leaders WV, Pitt and Syr in 3 str gms to gain control of the BE and took care of business vs Cincy and USF to tie WV and Pitt for the BE Title and grab the BCS bid. QB Frazer began the ssn as the starter (1st 4) but was benched for Endres (2 sts). Endres was then dismissed and instead of going back to Frazer, Edsall started Box vs L’ville (4-12, 35 yds) but he left the gm with inj and the job went back to Frazer. No doubt the strength of the offense is 5’9” 193 RB Todman who is #2 in the FBS in rush ypg (143). The receivers were shortchanged due to the inconsistencies at QB with UC finishing last in the BE in pass ypg (145). The OL avg 6’5” 305 with 2 Sr st’rs. UC is tied for 14th in the FBS (1st BE) in sks all’d (12, 3.8%) and don’t have the benefit of a mobile QB. UC is #2 in the BE in rush ypg (180, 4.7) but 5th in ttl off due to the poor passing. Overall UC has our #67 off and #51 def. The DL avg 6’3” 268 with 0 Sr st’rs. UC has all’d 147 rush ypg (3.9) and the def has posted 27 sks. UC boasts some of the best LB’s in the BE led by 2x 1st Tm BE MLB Wilson who leads the BE in tkls. UC is #33 in our pass D rankings all’g 206 ypg (58%) with a 13-19 ratio and leads the BE in int (19). UC is #44 in our ST rankings with a poor net punt avg of 34.8 (2nd last BE) but lead the BE in KR avg (26.5) with 2 TD.
After an “off” 8-5 ssn, the Sooners proved that they are the B12’s most powerful program by winning their L/4 to wind up in Glendale on NY’s Day. OU lost OC Wilson after the championship gm but veteran staffers QB cch Heupel/WR cch Norvell should be effective replacements. QB Jones despite some road struggles vs MO and A&M, rebounded to pilot our #9 off. The workhorse is AA RB Murray who led FBS RB’s in rec’s in addition to rushing for 1,121 yds. Biletnikoff finalist and AA WR Broyles finished #2 FBS in rec despite a nagging ankle inj. The OL (6’5” 297) all’d 21 sks (3.6%) but did struggle in short yd situations. The Sooners D had its own struggles replacing AA DT McCoy as the top interior lineman and Taylor was never 100% after LY’s gruesome leg inj before he was KO’d for the ssn vs TT. B12’s DL of the Yr DE Beal is #2 all-time in school history in sks. The LB’s suffered a blow when projected MLB Box missed the 1st 4 due to a back inj (burned by mobile QB’s early on). OU’s 152 rush ypg (4.3) all’d was the most in the Stoops era. OU ranked #8 in pass eff D (212, 55%, 15-17) led by All-B12 S Carter. The ST are #38 with P Way’s 40.5 net finishing #5 NCAA. The K’s continue to be a concern although Stevens hit 10 of his L/11 after winning the job back for the L/4. Broyles’ ankle inj limited his effectiveness on PR but Madu provided a spark on KR. The Sooners all’d 3.2 on PR and 20.5 on KR with 3 TD.
There’s a reason this is the biggest line of all the bowls and if you look to the left at the checklist it pretty much explains why. The only question in this gm is the motivation of the Sooners and with the recent bowl disappointments you can be assured Stoops will have his team ready. UC has been one of the most fortunate teams in football as they’ve been outgained in 6 of their 7 conf gms yet came away with the championship. It’s not hard to favor a team when they have a superior offense, superior D, better ST’s and are hungry for a BCS Bowl win.
OVERALL: 8-14
4* = 1-2
3*= 1-4
2* = 4-5
1* = 2-3
FORECAST: N’western (+) TT by 3 RATING: 3★ NORTHWESTERN (+)
This is the inaugural year of the TicketCity Bowl which will be played at the Cotton Bowl and fittingly this is the 1st matchup for these programs. The Raiders return to the post season for the 11th str year (6-4 SU/4-6 ATS) and they are the only tm in the B12 to be bowl elig every ssn in the conf’s existence. TT is now led by Tuberville who is 6-3 SU/ATS in bowls in his career. NW is headed to its 3rd str bowl under Fitzgerald who is 0-2 SU/2-0 ATS in his career and he has made it the program’s goal to win a bowl gm for the 1st time S/’48 (lost L/7). TT played Baylor in this stadium on Oct 9th beating the bowl bound Bears 45-38 as a 1 pt fav while this is the Cats 1st trip here. TT will have a significant crowd edge as Lubbock is a 6 hr drive from Dallas and they have many alums in the area. NW went 1-4 SU/ATS vs bowl teams getting outscored 41-24 and outgained 495-355. TT went 3-3 SU/2-4 ATS being outscored 34-26 and outgained 492-455. The Raiders went 2-1-1 as an AF TY while the Cats were 0-3 as an dog outside of Ryan Field with 2 contests coming after 1st Tm B10 QB Persa was KO’d for the ssn.
After throwing the GW TD pass to knock off Iowa, Persa ruptured his Achilles tendon. Persa had accounted for 75.5% of NW’s offense and his 73.5% comp set a school record and is #2 in B10 history. His replacement is 6’6” pocket passer Watkins who hit 129 (55%) with a 1-4 ratio (49 rush) in his 2 sts and the Cats actually burned the RS of the more mobile Colten for the L/2. The 2 QB’s comb for 6 TO’s in the finale loss to Wisky and Ftizgerald vowed the squad would get right back to work with pract so the frosh QB’s could get more exp before the bowl. The Cats started 4 diff TB’s before finally settling on Trumpy whose 80 yd TD run vs IL was the Cats’ longest S/‘82 although he missed the finale and is ? here (fractured wrist). WR Ebert stepped up as all star caliber TE/SB Dunsmore battled inj’s. The OL (6’5” 303, 1 Sr) all’d the most sk among bowl tms (39, 11%). The DL is led by DE Browne who has 7 of their 8.5 sks up front. Nate Williams is the top tackler among the LB’s but the unit has a tendency to overpursue which opens up cutback lanes which IL’s OC Petrino cited as a reason for the Illini’s 519 rush yds. NW finished #36 pass eff D (231, 59%, 21-14) led by #1 tkl’r S Peters and top cover CB Mabin. K Demos struggled at times (missing 2 FG’s in the Purdue loss) and would like to atone for missing the potential GW in LY’s wild OT bowl loss to Auburn. P Williams is #3 B10 in net (38.2) with good placement (18 FC) and their 3.3 ypr all’d is #4 in the NCAA. True Fr Mark set a school record with 273 KR yds vs Wisky including a 94 yd TD.
Tuberville vowed to keep the Air Raid offense but he added more of an emphasis on the run gm and after running for over 140 yd in a gm 18x in the previous 10Y, the Raiders did it 7x TY led by the combo of Batch and Stephens. The pass #’s shrunk as expected -72 ypg although QB Potts finished as the B12’s #3 passer. After Potts was briefly benched for fan favorite Sheffield who got the start vs MO, he returned to finish out the yr. The receiving corps battled inj’s to #3 rec Torres and #5 Franks but Leong finished #2 FBS in TD rec. The OL (6’5” 313) struggled early on with run blocking after lining up in wide splits under Leach but improved with exp (no Sr’s) and allowed 21 sk (3.7%). The D also had a major scheme change as they went to a 3-4. Depth was a major issue and Tuberville numerous times bemoaned the unit’s lack of speed until he eventually said the best way for them to win was to simply outscore people. 1st Tm B12 NT Whitlock was solid in the middle with the top sk’r being ex-LB Duncan. LB Bird was the tm’s top tkl’r. Inj’s really hit the secondary hard as TT’s pass D finished dead last in the FBS ypg all’d although they were #87 in our pass eff D (306, 62%, 27-14). TT was #36 in ST’s even though they allowed onside K’s to be ret’d for TD’s in B2B gms vs ISU and Baylor. P LaCour’s net of 38.8 was #16 NCAA and KR Stephens remains 1 of the B12’s best. PR Lewis (6.2) was mediocre and the K gm was an adventure as Williams and Carona combined to hit 9-14 with 3 blk’s. The Raiders allowed 5.8 on PR and 20.7 on PR and blk’d 2 P’s.
A disappointing finish for NW, losing by 21 and 47 after losing QB Persa. No question, Fitzgerald will have new QB Watkins ready with the extra prep time. TT finished the season with wins vs Weber and Houston but did not beat a BCS team by more than 7 pts on the season. Give the edge to the better defense with the better coach getting the generous points
FORECAST: Penn St vs Florida RATING: NO PLAY
A topsy-turvy ssn comes to an end on NY’s day for UF and PSU. UF has won both prev matchups in the ‘62 Gator and the ‘98 FL Citrus (21-6, -13’). PSU plays in its 4th ever Outback Bowl going 3-0 SU/ATS. Paterno is the all-time bowl win leader going 24-11-1 SU/22-10-1 ATS and is 7-2 SU/ATS L/9 vs SEC tms in bowls. UF is playing in their 20th consec bowl (2nd longest in nation) and Meyer is 6-1 SU/ATS in bowls incl 4-1 at UF. This is UF’s 4th trip to the Outback (1-2 SU/ATS). UF’s fans are used to more prestigious bowls w/BCS bids in 3 of the L/4Y but UF will clearly have the home crowd edge as fans will come out to support Meyer in his last gm. UF is 3-2 SU/ATS on the road (incl OT win vs GA) TY. PSU went 0-3 SU/ATS as an AD TY losing all 3 to ‘09 BCS bowl winners. PSU now faces a 4th BCS bowl winner here (1st tm in history) but also lost 4 gms by 20+ for the 1st time in tm history. PSU is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS vs bowl tms being outscored 27-19 and outgained 372-361 while UF is 5-5 SU/4-6 ATS vs bowl tms but outscored those tms 25-23 (outgained them 326-325). Both lost to AL but UF actually outgained the Tide 281-273 while PSU was outgained 409-283.
Rob Bolden became the 1st true Fr QB to start in the Paterno era. Bolden struggled getting the ball downfield causing D’s to put more players in the box to stop PSU’s all-time leading rusher Royster. When Bolden was hurt vs Minn, McGloin came off of the bench to hit 6-13 and 2 TD’s. In his 1st start he led the Lions to a win over Mich with their biggest yd and pt totals of the ssn. Bolden started vs NW but McGloin led them to PSU’s biggest comeback ever (trailing 21-0). Vs OSU McGloin threw the 1st PSU TD passes of the B10 era in Columbus while taking PSU to a 14-3 HT lead. In the 2H he threw 2 pick sixes but he started the L/2 with Paterno naming him the bowl’s QB starter. Top WR Moye’s play picked up with McGloin at QB. Although all 5 OL (6’3” 301, 1 Sr) ply’d a diff position LY PSU all’d just 12 sks (3.1%). Thanks to inj’s and attrition the D never quite lived up to the standards of recent editions (top 15 NCAA scoring and ttl D from ‘04-’09). The star up front is DT Ogbu with the DE’s probably the unit’s most banged up position. The LB’s also had their inj woes as top LB Mauti missed the L/2 (shldr). PSU had the #64 pass eff D (188, 62%, 19-9). The ST finished #38 although PSU will be w/o their top P Fera who missed the L/2 and was replaced by walk-on true Fr Butterworth and the tm finished w/a 38.4 net. K Wagner hit 8-10 from 40+. PSU all’d 7.3 on PR and 20.7 on KR.
Tough yr for mighty UF as the off took a nosedive w/o QB Tebow and struggled with inj’s at RB all yr. QB Brantley is more of a pure passer and not well suited to the Tebow-ran off, so adjustments were eventually made w/TE Reed and bkup QB Burton serving as the Tebow-like QB’s while Brantley remained the st’r and threw most of the passes. RB Demps is one of the fastest players in the nation (Olympic trials 100m) but suffered from a foot inj which limited him almost all yr (2 gms missed-won’t be 100% for bowl). After his 5 gm susp, WR Rainey helped out at RB and WR and is one of the top off threats on the tm. The OL (6’4” 322, 4 Sr) was shaky w/OG Mike Pouncey moving to C to take over for his twin brother Maurkice (1st RD DC). In the opener snaps were flying everywhere and UF was held below 100 yds rushing in 4 gms TY (Mia OH, AL, LSU, SC) and only 1 LY (AL) with the rush avg falling from 222 ypg (5.6) in ‘09 to 166 ypg (4.3) TY. Overall UF finished #32 on off and #13 on D. New DC Austin faced a tough rebuilding job replacing 5 DC’s (all 1st 3 Rd’s). They all’d 50 ypg more than LY (303 ypg) and 8.7 ppg more. UF’s D only generated 21 sks (tied #10 SEC) after from 39 LY. The DL avg 6’3” 278 with 3 Sr st’rs but loses DL cch McCarney who was hired as NT’s HC. UF all’d 130 ypg rush, its most S/’04. One bright spot is the secondary that is #11 in our pass D rankings all’g 173 ypg (55%) with a 16-17 ratio led by #1 tkl’r S Black and CB Jenkins. The ST’s are always strong (#3) with P Henry leading the nation in avg and net. One weak spot is kicking as P Henry was forced to take over for the inj’d Sturgis.
If we told you PSU was facing UF in a bowl - it wouldn’t be with a pair of 7-5 tms. If we told you that it was Meyer vs Paterno and one was going to retire - it wouldn’t be Meyer. While we initially sided with PSU, Meyer’s sudden retirement has caused us to reevaluate this game as we wait to see how the team and fan base responds.
FORECAST: Alabama by 21 RATING: 4★ ALABAMA
This bowl pairs AL HC Nick Saban vs his former tm where he was 34-24-1 from ‘95-’99 with MSU HC Dantonio serving as his DB cch. This is the 1st meeting between these 2 and the 1st time Saban’s faced MSU since leaving there. MSU won a share of the B10 Title for the 1st time S/‘90 and now plays in just their 3rd Jan bowl S/’89. Moments after the ND win B10 Cch of the Yr Dantonio suffered a mild heart attack and the tm was led to 2 wins incl 1 over Wisky by OC Treadwell. The team rallied for incredible 4Q comebacks vs NW and Purdue to finish with a program record 11 wins. This is the Spartans’ 4th bowl under Dantonio (0-3 SU/1-2 ATS). MSU has played their bowl game in Orlando 3 out of the L/4Y (‘07, ‘08) and is 1-1 SU/ATS in this bowl, losing 24-12 to UGA and QB Stafford as an 8’ pt dog in ‘08. The Spartans are 3-8 as dog the L/3Y (2-1 TY). AL was selected over LSU because they have never played in the Capital One while LSU was here LY. Saban is 5-6 SU/ATS in bowls (2-1 SU/ATS at Bama). Orlando is about a 9 hr drive from Tuscaloosa so the Tide should have a strong fan following for this one. UA is 5-3 SU/4-4 ATS vs bowl tms TY outscoring those tms by 27-17 and outgaining them by 462-333. MSU is 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS vs bowl caliber tms outgaining those tms by 410-356. Both tms faced PSU with AL winning 24-3 (409-283 edge) and MSU winning 28-22 (outgained 396-331).
MSU’s off leader is QB Cousins who fought off shldr and ankle inj’s to score the GW TD vs Purdue to cap a 22 pt 4Q. He should be 100% with the time off and finished #19 NCAA pass eff. MSU had over 200 rush yd in their first 4 for the 1st time S/’68 and RB Baker became just the 6th MSU soph to run for 1,000 yds. The rec corps is deep with 5 WR and 2 TE’s seeing regular action incl WR’s Dell and Cunningham and All-B10 TE Gantt. The OL (6’5” 300, 3 Sr) all’d 19 sk (5.5%) with a strong left side (LG Foreman and LT Young). The Spartans have our #37 off and #32 D. MSU’s star up front is Worthy who led the tm in sks with just 4 from his DT spot. The LB’s feature the FBS’s most productive duo in AA Jones and Gordon who were the tm’s top 2 tkl’rs. After allowing a 32-6 ratio in ‘09 (#103 pass eff D), the Spartans improved to 18-17 TY (#22) with all 4 st’rs named All-B10. MSU’s 3 biggest plays of the season came on ST: the blk’d punt vs PU, “Little Giants”: the fake FG in which holder Bates hit TE Gantt for a 28 yd TD pass to beat ND and the “Mousetrap”: trailing NW 24-14 in the 4Q, a fake P on 4&11 at the NW36 in which Bates hit a 21 yd pass to Fowler. P Bates led the B10 in avg and was #2 in net (38.2). K Conroy hit his 1st 13 FG’s in the 1st 7 gms before cooling off to hit just 1-2 in the final 5. Martin led the league in PR at 14.2 incl the pivotal 74 yd TD vs Wisky. The Spartans allow 8.7 on PR and 21.1 on KR and finished #49 in ST.
After AL earned their first Nat’l Title since ‘92 LY, a 9-3 ssn seems disappointing. Still this is one of the most talented teams in the country with their only losses to 2 squads in the SEC Title gm and 10-2 LSU. QB McElroy entered the ssn 30-0 as a starting QB in HS and college (now 39-3). McElroy was still efficient but held onto the ball too long resulting in 32 sks (+12 from LY). 2009 Heisman winner RB Ingram is a Michigan native but suffered a knee inj in Aug and missed the 1st 2. Backup Richardson suffered a knee inj midssn and also missed 2. The rushing production fell by 40 ypg (175, 5.0). On the bright side super WR Jones stayed healthy TY for his 1st 1,000 yd ssn. The OL avg 6’4” 301 with 1 Sr st’r. Overall AL has our #13 off and #2 def. Super DE Dareus was susp the 1st 2 and he was the most exp plyr returning to the DL in ‘10. The DL starters avg 6’3” 312 with 0 Sr’s. LB Hightower ret’d TY after a knee inj cut his ‘09 ssn short but wasn’t as dominating as expected and JLB Upshaw led the tm in sks and tfl. The secondary was quite inexperienced heading into the ssn but developed nicely with new FS Lester leading the SEC in int. AL ranks #4 in our pass D rankings all’g 173 ypg (53%) with an excellent 11-21 ratio vs a strong slate of opposing QB’s. A big loss is AL defensive leader SS Barron who will miss the bowl with a torn pectoral muscle. AL is #18 in our ST rankings led by excellent PR Maze and KR Richardson.
There’s only one question in this entire writeup and that’s motivation. Take a look at the checklist and you’ll see it’s a complete shutout as Bama has a 14’-0 edge. While the loss to Aub will be tough to rebound from, we have to believe that they’ll consider a 10 win season a success. MSU was hoping for a BCS berth but the truth is, the last time they faced a quality D on the road they were destroyed 37-6 to Iowa (trailed 30-0 at half).
FORECAST: OVER 59 Michigan/Miss St RATING: 2★ OVER
Michigan returns to the postssn for the 1st time S/’07 and their 1st ever matchup with Miss St. This is UM’s 3rd appearance in the Gator Bowl (1-1 SU/ATS) with their last visit in ‘90 and they are 7-3 SU/6-4 ATS in bowls vs SEC tms. Rich Rod is 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS in bowls. MSU makes its 1st bowl appearance S/’07’s Liberty Bowl win over UCF. It is Mullen’s 1st bowl gm as a HC but of course he was part of Urban Meyer’s FL and Utah staffs that went to bowls. This is MSU’s 1st NY’s Day bowl S/’99 and just the 10th meeting with a current B10 tm (Illini in ‘80). The Bulldogs sold out their original allotment of tix even before the destination was announced and asked for more while UM will bring fans for its 1st bowl in 3 yrs. MSU is 3-2 SU/ATS on the road TY and covered both times they were a road fav incl a 5H GOM Winner for us vs Hou. UM is 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS on the road TY. MSU is 3-4 SU/ATS vs bowl tms TY getting outscored 21-17 and outgained 378-312 while UM is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS vs bowl tms being outscored 37-30 and just slightly outgained 479-475.
Rodriguez finally found the perfect QB in B10’s OPY Robinson to run his spread. FL native Robinson exploded for UM QB ttl off records in his 1st 2 sts, earning nat’l POW honors vs Conn and ND. Robinson was considered the front runner for the Heisman until his 3 int vs Mich St (2 in EZ) doomed UM and D’s learned how to contain him. He also was banged up as he left several gms due to inj. Robinson still finished the ssn with a IA QB rush record 1,643 yds and became the first IA QB to run for 1,500 yds and throw for 2,000. UM went with a RB-by-committee as leading TB rusher Smith wasn’t quite 100% to start the yr. The leading receiver was Roundtree who had a UM record 246 yd vs IL but struggled with drops. The OL (6’5” 302, 2 Sr) is anchored by All-B10 C Molk. UM all’d just 11 sks and their 5.7 ypc led the B10. UM was held to fewer than 27 pts just twice TY by B10 co-champs MSU and OSU and finished as our #8 off. Attrition caused the Wolves to play 6 true Fr on D (#80). DC Robinson’s controversial 3-3-5 struggled all’g the most yds and pts in UM hist incl 39 ppg in B10 play (7 of 8 scored 34+). NT Martin is the top D player but he’s routinely doubled. He suffered a sprained ankle vs Iowa and wasn’t 100% the rest of the year. LB Mouton led the league in tkls for most of the yr before being edged out by S Kovacs in the finale. By yr’s end UM was starting 2 true Fr, an ex-walk-on and a journeyman Sr in the secondary which finished #95 pass eff D (260, 63%, 18-11). K’s Gibbons and Broekhuizen comb to hit just 4-13 FG (L/37). P Hagerup avg’d an impressive 43.6 as a true and will return after being susp’d vs OSU. Top returnman Gallon avg’d just 4.3 on PR and 21.8 on KR. The Wolves allow 9.8 on PR’s and 21.4 on KR’s. Questions on Rich Rod’s future could be a distraction.
MSU surprised some folks TY with a strong squad playing in the brutal SEC West with an 8-4 record which was quite an accomplishment. Along the way HC Mullen defeated his mentor Meyer in the Swamp and came close vs BCS-bound Ark losing in 2OT. Their #53 offense is a cookie-cutter of Meyer’s UF off with a strong run gm led by mobile QB Relf. Passing QB Russell split time with Relf early in the yr, but after the 2 comb for 5 int vs LSU, the pass gm was scaled back and Relf took most of the snaps the rest of the yr. Top RB Ballard took over as the st’r in gm 3 and was very productive finishing #3 in the SEC in scoring (9.3 ppg). Big play WR Berry was lost to inj in gm 6 but could return here. The OL has been solid in run blocking as MSU is #2 in the SEC in rush ypg (216, 4.6), but all’d 22 sks (9.0%). The OL starters avg 6’3” 303 with 2 Sr st’rs led by LT Sherrod who is projected as one of the top OT’s for the ‘11 draft. MSU is #16 in our def rankings. The whole team was rocked by tragedy when starting DE Nick Bell (3 sts) was diagnosed with a brain tumor and eventually died during the tm’s bye wk (Nov 6th). MSU all’d 122 rush ypg (3.6) with 26 sks and the tm’s sk leader was LB White (6). White was highly productive finishing #4 in the SEC in tkls and tfl. MSU is #29 in our pass D rankings all’g 236 ypg (57%) with a 17-12 ratio. MSU has faced 2 QB’s similar to Robinson TY (Newton and Masoli) and held Aub to a ssn low 17 pts (Newton 70 rush yd, 136 pass) and Masoli (12 rush, 261 pass). Rumors of Mullen being a candidate for multiple jobs could be a distraction.
These two teams have provided us with three Bowl or Game of the Year Winners! Michigan’s offense obviously runs thru Robinson and despite the extra practice, we don’t expect much improvement from the D. The Bulldogs are potent enough on offense for us to anticipate a high scoring gm.
FORECAST: TCU by 6 RATING: 1★ TCU
TCU trailed Boise most of the yr in the AP polls, but jumped them in the BCS standings after a 47-7 blowout of then-undefeated Utah. TCU breathed a sigh of relief with Nevada’s upset of the Broncos which assured them of becoming the 1st non-AQ to make consecutive BCS bowls and the 1st to play in the Rose Bowl. TCU easily sold its allotment of 20,000 tix while UW has a 35,000 allotment and outnumbered P10 fans in their 3 recent trips to Pasadena. Patterson is 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS in bowls losing LY’s Fiesta Bowl to Boise,17-10 (-7). The final BCS standings officially gave UW the B10’s nod as they were co-champs with MSU and OSU all tied at 11-1 (7-1 in B10 play). This is the Badgers 7th trip to Pasadena (1st S/’99) where they are 3-3 SU winning their L/3 (2-1 ATS). Under Bielema UW is 2-2 SU/ATS in bowls with this being their 1st BCS bid. They both faced UNLV in LV as the Frogs (-34’) won 48-6 on 10/30 (30-12 FD and 530-197 yd edges). UW (-20) beat the Rebels 41-21 in the opener (23-10 FD and 475-217 yd edges). TCU was fav’d in every gm TY but this is only the 2nd gm (Utah -5) where the line has been under 13. UW was 2-0 SU/ATS as a dog TY with their 2 biggest wins of the yr B2B vs OSU and at Iowa.
TCU flat out dominated opp’s TY outscoring them 43-11 behind their vaunted D. The closest game for the Frogs was a 5 pt win over underrated SDSt. TCU fell behind 14-0 (its biggest deficit TY) but scored 37 unanswered before all’g SDSt to battle back. The #10 offense has had some slow starts TY as the Frogs had leads of just 14 or less at halftime 5x’s incl 3 gms of single-digit leads. Sr QB Dalton (1st Tm MWC) does not hesitate to make plays with his feet (407 rush) and is #5 NCAA pass eff. RB Wesley is the first Frog over 1,000 yds rushing S/’03. For the first time S/’03-’04, TCU has 2 rec’s with more than 500 yds in B2B seasons. The OL avg 6’4” 317 with 4 Sr st’rs. Led by two 1st Tm MWC’ers (incl Rimington winner Kirkpatrick), they pave the way for 261 ypg (5.5) while giving up 9 sks (2.9%). TCU placed 8 defenders on the first two All-MWC teams. They lead the NCAA in many categories and our #3 D. The DL (6’2” 281), with 3 Sr starters, has totaled 17.5 of the tm’s 25 sks. LB Brock leads TCU in tkls. The Frogs rank #2 in our pass eff D led by 1st Tm MWC Johnson and had 3 IR TD’s TY. The ST’s unit (#9) is led by Kerley who avg an outstanding 12.9 on PR and 28.0 on KR. P Kelton has landed 15 In20 and the PR D is giving up 7.2 (KR D 20.5).
Johnny Unitas QB Awd Winner Tolzien (#5 NCAA pass eff) leads the NCAA in comp % which is also a new B10 record. UW is the only team in B10 history to avg 40+ in conf play and have 3 RB who have at least 13 rush TD. HC Bielema immediately saw the power/speed potential in B10’s ‘09 OPY Clay and true Fr White. Clay became the 1st back in 29 gms to have 100 yds vs Ohio St but suffered a knee inj missing the L/3. #3 TB Ball scored the GW TD vs Iowa and ran for 645 yd and 13 TD in the L/4. The WR corps struggled with inj’s as their top 2 (Toon and Gilreath) missed 4 and 2. Mackey finalist TE Kendricks led the squad in rec. The true stars are the OL (6’5” 321, 3 Sr) led by B10 OL of the Yr/Outland winner LT Carimi. UW ran for less than 150 yds just once (142 vs Iowa) and they all’d just 12 sks (4.7%). UW (#12 off) also had the NCAA’s fewest pens per gm and was tied for the NCAA lead with just 9 TO’s lost. All-B10 DE Watt leads the DL (avg 6’4” 279) with big plays in big gms. Wisky (#37 D) suffered a huge loss when LY’s B10 Fr of the Yr LB Borland was KO’d (shoulder) and Taylor led the unit in tfl. The secondary (#32 pass eff D all’g 192, 56%, 19-14) cut down on big plays. ST’s (#68) have been the source of big plays TY for both the Badgers and their opponents. After allowing KR’s of 97 and 95 yds vs Arizona St, the Badgers blk’d the gm tying xp in a 1 pt win. A 74 yd PR TD keyed MSU’s win but perhaps the biggest play of the season was Gilreath’s 97 yd KR TD on the opening KO vs OSU.
There have been times when non-AQ teams have reached a BCS bowl without being truly deserving but this is not one of them as this Horned Frogs unit has both an excellent offense and defense. They’ll look forward to the challenge of their 2nd straight BCS game. Wisky comes in as B10 Champs and is now an underdog to a MWC team in the Rose Bowl. They’ll play the disrespect card and it will be a great matchup with their big physical OL and trio of solid RB’s vs the TCU front 7.
FORECAST: Oklahoma by 28 RATING: 3★ OKLAHOMA
These programs come in from opposite ends of the spectrum for their 1st ever meeting as this is UC’s 1st ever BCS Bowl while it is OU’s 8th. The Huskies come in as the biggest dog of the BCS gms at +17’. Conn won a share of the BE Title and UC HC Edsall is 3-1 SU/ATS in bowls incl LY’s upset of SC as 3’ pt dogs. OU won their 7th B12 Title but has lost their L/5 BCS gms SU/ATS incl being upset in B2B yrs (‘06-’07) in the Fiesta Bowl where they are 1-3 SU/ATS. Stoops is 5-6 SU/3-8 ATS in bowls. The tms both faced Cincy TY with the Huskies (-2’) winning 38-17 at home on Nov 27th despite being outgained 399-357 while OU (-14) edged the Bearcats 31-29 despite being outgained 461-452. UC was 2-4 SU/ATS on the road TY but finished the ssn with 2 str outright upsets as an AD. OU had struggled on the road until winning their L/3 outside of Norman for the conf crown. Both are young with UC having only 5 Sr starters while OU has just 4.
The Huskies began the ssn with high hopes coming off their upset of SC in LY’s bowl. Prospects looked bleak after they began the ssn 3-4 with losses to Temple and Rutgers that had some calling for Edsall to be ousted. UC went on to upset BE leaders WV, Pitt and Syr in 3 str gms to gain control of the BE and took care of business vs Cincy and USF to tie WV and Pitt for the BE Title and grab the BCS bid. QB Frazer began the ssn as the starter (1st 4) but was benched for Endres (2 sts). Endres was then dismissed and instead of going back to Frazer, Edsall started Box vs L’ville (4-12, 35 yds) but he left the gm with inj and the job went back to Frazer. No doubt the strength of the offense is 5’9” 193 RB Todman who is #2 in the FBS in rush ypg (143). The receivers were shortchanged due to the inconsistencies at QB with UC finishing last in the BE in pass ypg (145). The OL avg 6’5” 305 with 2 Sr st’rs. UC is tied for 14th in the FBS (1st BE) in sks all’d (12, 3.8%) and don’t have the benefit of a mobile QB. UC is #2 in the BE in rush ypg (180, 4.7) but 5th in ttl off due to the poor passing. Overall UC has our #67 off and #51 def. The DL avg 6’3” 268 with 0 Sr st’rs. UC has all’d 147 rush ypg (3.9) and the def has posted 27 sks. UC boasts some of the best LB’s in the BE led by 2x 1st Tm BE MLB Wilson who leads the BE in tkls. UC is #33 in our pass D rankings all’g 206 ypg (58%) with a 13-19 ratio and leads the BE in int (19). UC is #44 in our ST rankings with a poor net punt avg of 34.8 (2nd last BE) but lead the BE in KR avg (26.5) with 2 TD.
After an “off” 8-5 ssn, the Sooners proved that they are the B12’s most powerful program by winning their L/4 to wind up in Glendale on NY’s Day. OU lost OC Wilson after the championship gm but veteran staffers QB cch Heupel/WR cch Norvell should be effective replacements. QB Jones despite some road struggles vs MO and A&M, rebounded to pilot our #9 off. The workhorse is AA RB Murray who led FBS RB’s in rec’s in addition to rushing for 1,121 yds. Biletnikoff finalist and AA WR Broyles finished #2 FBS in rec despite a nagging ankle inj. The OL (6’5” 297) all’d 21 sks (3.6%) but did struggle in short yd situations. The Sooners D had its own struggles replacing AA DT McCoy as the top interior lineman and Taylor was never 100% after LY’s gruesome leg inj before he was KO’d for the ssn vs TT. B12’s DL of the Yr DE Beal is #2 all-time in school history in sks. The LB’s suffered a blow when projected MLB Box missed the 1st 4 due to a back inj (burned by mobile QB’s early on). OU’s 152 rush ypg (4.3) all’d was the most in the Stoops era. OU ranked #8 in pass eff D (212, 55%, 15-17) led by All-B12 S Carter. The ST are #38 with P Way’s 40.5 net finishing #5 NCAA. The K’s continue to be a concern although Stevens hit 10 of his L/11 after winning the job back for the L/4. Broyles’ ankle inj limited his effectiveness on PR but Madu provided a spark on KR. The Sooners all’d 3.2 on PR and 20.5 on KR with 3 TD.
There’s a reason this is the biggest line of all the bowls and if you look to the left at the checklist it pretty much explains why. The only question in this gm is the motivation of the Sooners and with the recent bowl disappointments you can be assured Stoops will have his team ready. UC has been one of the most fortunate teams in football as they’ve been outgained in 6 of their 7 conf gms yet came away with the championship. It’s not hard to favor a team when they have a superior offense, superior D, better ST’s and are hungry for a BCS Bowl win.
