THE GOLD SHEET
OVERALL : 9-13
TECH 30 - Northwestern 26—Because successful handicapping
requires the digestion of so much information and statistics, there can be a
tendency to get bogged down in the minutiae of a matchup while failing to give
proper weight to the more obvious and pertinent aspects of an upcoming clash.
Northwestern, for instance, is 1-8 vs. the spread over its last nine games, and the
Wildcats won’t have indispensable injured starting QB Dan Persa when they
travel to hostile Dallas to take on Texas Tech in the Red Raiders’ home state.
‘Nuff said, case closed?
Maybe. But dismiss resourceful Northwestern at your own risk. Sure, the
Wildcats are 0-7 straight up in bowl games since 1995. And they’ll be hardpressed
to get a victory in this one. However, Northwestern doesn’t have to win
outright, it just needs to hang inside a very generous pointspread (9½ points at
TGS press time). And smart young head coach Pat Fitzgerald has found a way
to do exactly that in bowl games each of the previous two seasons, stretching
SEC rep Auburn & Big XII rep Missouri to overtime before bowing. More
important, the extra practices leading up to this clash will benefit Northwestern
as much as any bowl team in the nation, giving the Wildcat coaching staff time
to get talented new QB Evan Watkins up to speed after the 6-6 strong-armed
redshirt frosh struggled during a couple of nervous starts at the end of the
regular season for the injured Persa. Plus, the fiery Fitzgerald, a former star LB
for NU, figures to have his defense flying to the ball in the wake of the 70 points
the embarrassed Wildcats allowed at Wisconsin to close the regular campaign.
Perhaps more to the point than any argument in favor of Northwestern is the
fact that we simply don’t fully trust Texas Tech’s KO power. The Red Raiders are
not the offensive juggernaut that they were under former head coach Mike
Leach, notching just three double-digit victories (at woeful New Mexico and at home
over Weber State & Houston) in Tommy Tuberville’s first season at the helm. If
Watkins is accurate enough to exploit some of the frequent holes in Tech’s pass
coverage (the Raiders have allowed a whopping 3673 yards through the air—
most in the nation), Northwestern has a good chance to go the distance.
FLORIDA 26 - Penn State 24—This game has several story lines revolving
around the coaching staffs. Florida’s Urban Meyer will be coaching his last game,
as he announced his retirement a few weeks ago. Will Muschamp, recently Texas’
defensive coordinator, will take over after this game. The Gators will also lose
offensive coordinator Steve Addazio, who will become the head coach at Temple.
Rumors are rife at Penn State that this will be Joe Paterno’s last game as well,
as sources inside the Penn State athletic department reportedly are lending
credence to the story. Although Paterno and Penn State president Bill Mahon
denied the rumors, Paterno has arranged for all of his extended family (including
most of his 17 grandchildren) to attend the game. Word is his age and related health
problems might have caught up with the iconic coach, who just turned 84. Further
fueling this story is the fact that some of Paterno’s assistants have been actively
pursuing other coaching positions. It would be in character for Paterno to keep such
a huge decision between he and his players, in order not to draw attention to himself.
Regardless, value lies with the Nittany Lions. Underdogs of seven points or
more in bowl games have been a strong percentage play (65% over the past 36
years), and Penn State has the ingredients to add to that edge. Nittany Lion RB
Evan Royster is the school’s all-time leading rusher with 3834 yards, and he’s
scored 29 touchdowns. QB Matt McGloin has done a solid job since taking over
for true frosh Robert Bolden at midseason. McGloin has completed 58% for
1337 yds., and has thrown 13 TD passes while tossing just 4 interceptions.
McGloin has developed a rapport with 6-5 WR Derek Moye, who’s caught 6 of
his 7 TD passes since McGloin took over.
Florida is in a state of flux with Meyer’s departure, as several recruits have
decommitted. After an impressive 4-0 start to the season, the Gators wobbled
to a 3-5 mark in their last 8 games, with two of those wins against Vanderbilt and
Appalachian State and the third in OT against Georgia. The Florida attack
behind QB John Brantley wasn’t nearly as effective as recent editions under Tim
Tebow. Brantley completed 61%, but threw only 9 TD passes plus 9
interceptions. Brantley became less efficient down the stretch, with 8 ints. & just
3 TD passes in the final 8 games. The 2010 Florida attack produced the fewest
passing scores in more than a decade in Gainesville. RB Jeff Demps leads the
Gator rushing game with 531 yds. (6.0 ypc). The explosive Demps was bothered
by injury in the second half of the season, missing 3 of Florida’s last 7 games
entirely and most of a 4th. Only once in the last 11 years has the Gator defense
allowed more points against TGS-rated teams than this season’s 22 ppg.
Emotions for coaches aside, this has been a down season for Florida, which
heads into this game with just one quality win since September. Penn State
owns the same record as Florida, facing a similar strength of schedule, and the
Nittany Lions currently have the more productive and efficient QB. A full
touchdown is too many points to give, especially if Paterno is indeed coaching
in his final game in front of his entire family.
Alabama 26 - Michigan State 24—Alabama was touted as nearly
unbeatable after going 14-0 and winning the BCS Championship last season.
With returning Heisman Trophy winning RB Mark Ingram along with star QB
Greg McElroy and top WR Julio Jones plus numerous other starters, a repeat
championship was predicted by many. However, it turned out the Tide didn’t fill
in its 2ndary as well as HC Nick Saban would’ve liked, and rushing production
fell by 42 ypg as graduation losses on the OL took a toll. Saban coached MSU
from 1995-99 and took the Spartans to four straight bowl appearances.
Michigan State, conversely, won a school-record 11 games, a share of its first
Big Ten championship in 20 years, and had HC Mark Dantonio named National
Coach of the Year by CBSSports.com. Jr. QB Kirk Cousins completed 67.5%
for 2705 yards & 20 TDs. The RB tandem of soph Edwin Baker (1187 YR, 6.1
ypc, 13 TDs) & true frosh Le’Veon Bell (592, 5.7, 8) were a potent combination
running behind a surprisingly efficient OL that had been one of the team’s
perceived weaknesses heading into 2010. The Spartans have possibly the best
defensive player in the Big Ten in A-A LB Greg Jones, a tackling machine with
457 stops the last four seasons. His LB partner, 5th-year senior Eric Gordon,
has 324 tackles in 48 career starts.
On paper, Michigan State’s poor pass defense puts it at a disadvantage
facing Bama WR Jones (75 catches; 1084 yards) & QB McElroy (71%, 19 TDs,
just 5 ints.). The Spartan 2ndary yielded 222 ypg passing against TGS-rated
teams, with particularly shoddy efforts against Notre Dame (allowed Dayne
Crist 369 YP & 4 TDP) and at Iowa (Ricky Stanzi completed 11 of 15, 3 for
scores). However, Alabama had trouble when it couldn’t dominate in the pits
this season, rushing for 3.9 ypc and allowing 15 sacks in losses to South
Carolina, LSU & Auburn. Part of the problem MSU had against the pass was an
inability to pressure the QB, as DT Jerel Worthy and DE Tyler Hoover led the
team with only 4 & 3 sacks, respectively. With extra prep time, expect Spartan
d.c. Pat Narduzzi to come up with some schemes to get to McElroy.
Big dogs are a high-percentage play in bowl games, as dogs of 7 points or
more have covered 66% over the past six years. Saban is a great coach, but
Mark Dantonio worked under Saban and knows many of his schemes.
Dantonio is no slouch as a coach, as his calls on special teams resulted in some
of the biggest plays of the Spartans’ season, most notably the game-winning
fake FG/TD pass to win the ND game in OT. MSU was good enough to pin
Wisconsin with its only loss of the season, so they are good enough to match
the Tide blow-for-blow for most of the way
Mississippi State 38 - Michigan 28—In the first-ever meeting between these
schools, the opposing coaches have attracted lots of attention...for different
reasons. While MSU’s second-year mentor Dan Mullen (the Urban Meyer
disciple will reportedly receive a 4-year extension) was considered for some of
TY’s top openings, speculation remains that UM’s embattled fourth-year coach
Rich Rodriquez (only 1-10 vs. ranked teams; bothersome compliance
violations) might soon be dismissed, with new athletic director Dave Brandon
stating he will evaluate the HC after the season. We’ve heard that one before.
Like LY (but then with a different QB), the Wolverines got off to a rousing start
(4-0 LY, 5-0 TY). In 2010, it was record-setting soph QB Denard “Shoelaces”
Robinson (native Floridian is first QB in NCAA history to rush & pass for more
than 1,500 yds. each in the same season!), who improved his aerial skills (62%)
to complement his jaw-dropping running ability (6.7 ypc; 4.3 speed) in directing
“Rich Rod’s” spread-option attack (34 ppg). But the Wolverines went only 2-5
the rest of the way (0-7 vs. number), as the overworked Robinson was hobbled
by a variety of injuries (shoulder, knee, fingers), though he reportedly is back to
100% for the bowl. His favorite WR, Ray Roundtree, has had the “dropsies,”
mishandling 4 catchable balls vs. Ohio State. Even so, it’s hard to envision UM
reverting back to its early-season form vs. resurgent, 24th-ranked 8-4 MSU,
whose 4 losses have been vs. elite SEC squads that were a combined 42-7.
Starkville sources report the fast, gang-tackling Bulldog defense (20 ppg) is
strategically-prepared to face Robinson, with shifty frosh Jameon Lewis
simulating him in practice. And certainly, the Bulldog stop unit—led by fierce
LBs Chris White & K.J. Wright (combined 198 tackles, 23 TFL, 9 sacks)—has
done an outstanding job vs. running QBs this season, limiting Auburn’s
Heisman Trophy Winner Cameron Newton to 136 YP & a season-low 70 YR in
the Bulldogs’ 17-14 loss on Sept. 9. The disciplined unit also contained Ole
Miss’ dual-threat QB Jeremiah Masoli in MSU’s 31-23 win to cap the regular
season. The Bulldog defenders face their own mobile spread operation every
day in practice.
On the other hand, Mississippi State’s run-oriented (the Bulldogs rush 69% of
the time) spread offense (27 ppg, 216 ypg rushing, 4.6 ypc), piloted by powerful,
rapidly-developing 6-4, 240 jr. QB Chris Relf (56%, 683 YR) should steamroll the
talent-shy, attrition-thinned 3-3-5 Wolverine defense (34 ppg, 188 ypg rushing),
ranked the worst in school history! The punishing Bulldog infantry attack,
featuring RB Vick Ballard (892 YR, 5.4 ypc, 16 TDs), who motors behind a sturdy
OL (anchored by projected high-round NFL pick LT Derek Sherrrod), should
continue to chew up yards, while the evolving Relf (512 YP last two games!)
burns the young, decimated UM secondary (ranked 111th nationally; starting 2
frosh, 1 soph) with timely passes.
Morever, MSU is far more opportunistic & careful with the pigskin (+8 TO
margin vs. all foes; -9 for Wolves!) and owns a huge edge in the kicking game,
with accurate PK Derek DePasquale (19 of 22 FGs L2Ys). Contrariwise, there
has been an open competition in Ann Arbor after the Wolverines converted a
miserable 4 of 13 TY. The preponderance of edges point to excited, wellrepresented
MSU (quickly sold its 15,000 ticket allotment and begged for more;
UM has returned 5,000), which figures to add to the SEC’s profitable bowl
spread mark (16-9 since ‘07) and extend Rich Rod’s bankroll-depleting record in
Ann Arbor (10-26 vs. the number!) in what might very well be his last hurrah for
the “Maize and Blue.”
Tcu 28 - Wisconsin 20—Unlike most of the earlier postseason matchups, it’s
usually tough to find much fault with the participants in the BCS bowl games.
Such is the case with TCU and Wisconsin. Care to go against the undefeated
Horned Frogs? They ran roughshod over their regular-season slate, dispatching
foes by an average score of 43-11. TCU ranks first in the nation in total defense
(just 215 ypg, 36 fewer than second-place Ohio State) and a not-too-shabby
ninth in total offense (492 ypg). Sr. QB Andy Dalton is four-year starter who has
thrown 49 TDP vs. only 14 ints. in the last two seasons. Explosive soph RB Ed
Wesley has 1065 YR & 11 TDs (on 6.6 ypc) despite missing most of two games
due to injury, plus WRs sr. Jeremy Kerley (12 TDs)—who’s also one of the
country’s best kick/punt returners—and RS frosh Josh Boyce (6 TDs, 18 ypc)
both have the speed to stretch opposition stop units.
So why even hesitate to lay a small, fair price with a team whose résumé is as
impressive the Horned Frogs’? Mostly because that means going against
Wisconsin. All the Badgers have done this season is go 11-1, covering their last
six games. UW scored 201 points (not a misprint) in just the last three, as the
Badgers were able to continue to pound foes on the ground behind their NFL-sized
veteran OL even after an injury sidelined top RB John Clay (expected to be available
vs. TCU). And Wiscy has its own steady senior signal-caller in Scott Tolzein (74%!).
It must be acknowledged that the Horned Frogs’ dominance so far has been
partly due to the competition they faced in the Mountain West, a conference that
contained some of the dregs of the FBS level this season. But we’re not sure the
Badgers can boast a dance card that was that much more difficult, especially a
pre-Big 10 slate that included a trip to UNLV and home games against San Jose
State & Austin Peay, as well as down the stretch when UW was beating up on
the likes of defenseless Indiana & Michigan plus a Northwestern squad missing
its starting QB. Ultimately, we favor TCU because the Frogs have a few more
playmakers on defense, and Dalton seems more likely than Tolzien to make
major strikes through the air. Still, our strongest recommendation in this
matchup is “under,” as the Badgers’ recent offensive exploits have inflated the
total (58½ at TGS press time), and their preferred smashmouth tactics don’t
figure to work so well against a gnarly, swarming TCU stop unit that has
begrudged foes a measly 89 ypg on the ground (No. 3 in the nation).
*Oklahoma 31 - Connecticut 20—Considering the high pointspread on this
game, it’s obviously difficult to make a strong case on fundamentals for such a
big underdog. Big XII champ Oklahoma (11-2), with its pulchritudinous statistics
and impressive comeback from a 17-0 hole vs. Nebraska to win the Big XII title
game, enjoys many advantages over lightly-regarded Big East champ
Connecticut (8-4), making its first appearance in a BCS bowl.
The Sooners, with their high-tech, uptempo, no-huddle, diamond formation
attack, flood the field with offensive talent. OU gains nearly 500 ypg; was fourth
in the nation in passing. QB Landry Jones (65.3%) had 35 TDs vs. 11 ints. and
hit the big passes to hurt Nebraska. Future NFL WR Ryan Broyles led the nation
with 118 receptions. Developing true frosh WR Kenny Stills had 53. Sr. RB
DeMarco Murray had 1121 YR and 69 receptions. FB Millard & TE Ratteree get
their chances in perhaps the most diverse attack in the nation.
Yet the Sooners had their vulnerabilities, being out-rushed for the season,
yielding 4.3 ypc, and ranking a middle-of-the-pack 62nd in rush defense.
Yielding 3 KOR TDs. They had six single-digit wins TY, plus their two losses.
OU has an 0 for 5 slump in BCS bowls, including its infamous 43-42 OT loss to
Boise State on this field four years ago, and a 48-28 spanking by West Virginia,
also in the Fiesta, the next season. Indeed, HC Bob Stoops is just 1-6 as a bowl
favorite. And, overall, big bowl favorites of 14 points or more have covered only
39% going back to the mid-70s.
Many say the Big East no longer merits an automatic BCS bowl berth and that
UConn doesn’t belong. But HC Randy Edsall says his program is past the “up
and coming” stage and contends that the Huskies have proven just that by
rallying from behind to snatch the Big East crown and by earning their third
straight bowl appearance, winning their last two, including a muffling 20-7 victory
over South Carolina LY in the Papajohn’s Bowl. UConn wins the old-fashioned
way, running relentlessly with jr. Jordan Todman (1574 YR), avoiding turnovers,
striking opportunistically (4 int. TDs; 2 KR TDs), and playing solid defense (16th
in pass efficiency), out-sacking foes 27-12. The Huskies won & covered their
last 5 games TY, 4 of them as an underdog, and UConn is 18-9 its last 27 getting
points. Says Edsall, “We’re used to being the underdogs....It’s nothing to us but
a little chip on our shoulders—a little disrespect.” Here’s his chance to do
something about it
