From FEZZIK (your 2008 Hilton NFL handicapping contest winner)
GA-MSU OVER THE TOTAL
MSU went "over" 55 in all 5 of their road games. Early season bad East Lansing weather lowered MSU's overall average.
GA had some lower scores vs. SEC under teams, but vs. normal teams, the scoreboard keeps updating.
OVER!
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GA-MSU OVER THE TOTAL
MSU went "over" 55 in all 5 of their road games. Early season bad East Lansing weather lowered MSU's overall average.
GA had some lower scores vs. SEC under teams, but vs. normal teams, the scoreboard keeps updating.
OVER!
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paid by me
Steven Budin-CEO
THURSDAY'S PICK
25 DIME TWO-TEAM TEASER
GEORGIA and PENN STATE
Using the standard six points you receive in a 2-Team Teaser, reduce the price you are laying with Georgia while increasing the number of points you are getting with Penn State.
Georgia is right around -9. Penn State is priced most places at +9 1/2. Now, your prices might vary by a half-point or so, but using these current numbers above, you would make Georgia -3 versus Michigan State and Penn State +15 1/2 against Southern California.
PAID
Steven Budin-CEO
THURSDAY'S PICK
25 DIME TWO-TEAM TEASER
GEORGIA and PENN STATE
Using the standard six points you receive in a 2-Team Teaser, reduce the price you are laying with Georgia while increasing the number of points you are getting with Penn State.
Georgia is right around -9. Penn State is priced most places at +9 1/2. Now, your prices might vary by a half-point or so, but using these current numbers above, you would make Georgia -3 versus Michigan State and Penn State +15 1/2 against Southern California.
PAID
WUNDERDOG
Game: South Alabama at Florida Atlantic (2:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: South Alabama -2 (-110)
South Alabama has been more impressive than their 8-5 start might indicate with all the losses coming to teams up in class. Those losses were at the hands of Western Kentucky, Louisville, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Mississippi State. Two of which should be noted were by two and three points respectively. They have taken out all comers within their class and at 8-0 are certainly undervalued on the road here. Florida Atlantic has been unimpressive on a schedule that has been equally unimpressive. The problem has been an inconsistent offense that finds droughts during the game and a good Jaguar team will take the opening. South Alabama gets the call here.
Game: South Alabama at Florida Atlantic (2:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: South Alabama -2 (-110)
South Alabama has been more impressive than their 8-5 start might indicate with all the losses coming to teams up in class. Those losses were at the hands of Western Kentucky, Louisville, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Mississippi State. Two of which should be noted were by two and three points respectively. They have taken out all comers within their class and at 8-0 are certainly undervalued on the road here. Florida Atlantic has been unimpressive on a schedule that has been equally unimpressive. The problem has been an inconsistent offense that finds droughts during the game and a good Jaguar team will take the opening. South Alabama gets the call here.
JOHN RYAN
Ai Simulator 7* graded play Under Michigan State/Georgia - AiS shows a 80% probability that 55 or fewer points will be score in this game. AiS also shows that the Georgia defense will have a solid day and has an 88% probability of limiting MSU to 350 or fewer total yards. MSU is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 45-17 ATS for 73% since 1992. Play under with any team against the total after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games when playing on a Thursday. Thursday is an important day of the week in CFB as it nearly always entails a game where the teams have additional rest 10 to 14 days. In this case the rest will sharpen the defenses and the offenses will be a rusty - again based on the AiS projections. Georgia HC Richt is 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. Take the UNDER for 7*.
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Ai Simulator 7* graded play Under Michigan State/Georgia - AiS shows a 80% probability that 55 or fewer points will be score in this game. AiS also shows that the Georgia defense will have a solid day and has an 88% probability of limiting MSU to 350 or fewer total yards. MSU is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) when they gain 300 to 350 total yards over the last 3 seasons. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 45-17 ATS for 73% since 1992. Play under with any team against the total after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games when playing on a Thursday. Thursday is an important day of the week in CFB as it nearly always entails a game where the teams have additional rest 10 to 14 days. In this case the rest will sharpen the defenses and the offenses will be a rusty - again based on the AiS projections. Georgia HC Richt is 12-4 UNDER (+7.6 Units) after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game. Take the UNDER for 7*.
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JOHN RYAN -
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State - AiS shows an 8% probability that PSU will lose this game by 7 or fewer points and also has a 50% probability of winning the game. I also like a 2* amount on the money line to be considered only as an optional wager. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 40-15 ATS for a 73% mark since 1997. Play against neutral field favorites in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences and with an inexperienced QB as starter. This second system supports PSU and has produced a record of 71-31 ATS for 70% since 1992. Play dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games and with 17 or more total starters returning. USC is just not in a solid roles for this game. Note that they are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992; 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) in road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. Despite the media attention stating that the Big-10 is weak and has been a weak conference with the exception of the top 2 or 3 teams, PSU has done very well when playing out of conference. They are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Even Pete Carroll is in a poor role noting he is just 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Let's not forget that PSU had the best defense, offense, and special teams in the big-10. Rae is it that any team can ben ranked number 1 in 2 of the 3 categories in a major conference let alone all three. Note too that this is the first time since 2002 that the Pac-10 and Big-10 Champions are meeting in Pasadena. USC has a dominant defense, but I question the overall talent of those teams. They did not allow more than 179 total yards in a game all year and I am certain PSU may get that many by half time. Then it will be quite interesting to see how the defense reacts after halftime. PSU has the speed and athleticism on offense that could overwhelm the defense. Yes, i like this game and I do think PSU can win this game.
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State - AiS shows an 8% probability that PSU will lose this game by 7 or fewer points and also has a 50% probability of winning the game. I also like a 2* amount on the money line to be considered only as an optional wager. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 40-15 ATS for a 73% mark since 1997. Play against neutral field favorites in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences and with an inexperienced QB as starter. This second system supports PSU and has produced a record of 71-31 ATS for 70% since 1992. Play dogs of 3.5 to 10 points in non-conference games and with 17 or more total starters returning. USC is just not in a solid roles for this game. Note that they are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games allowing 225 or less total yards/game over their last 3 games since 1992; 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) in road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. Despite the media attention stating that the Big-10 is weak and has been a weak conference with the exception of the top 2 or 3 teams, PSU has done very well when playing out of conference. They are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Even Pete Carroll is in a poor role noting he is just 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Let's not forget that PSU had the best defense, offense, and special teams in the big-10. Rae is it that any team can ben ranked number 1 in 2 of the 3 categories in a major conference let alone all three. Note too that this is the first time since 2002 that the Pac-10 and Big-10 Champions are meeting in Pasadena. USC has a dominant defense, but I question the overall talent of those teams. They did not allow more than 179 total yards in a game all year and I am certain PSU may get that many by half time. Then it will be quite interesting to see how the defense reacts after halftime. PSU has the speed and athleticism on offense that could overwhelm the defense. Yes, i like this game and I do think PSU can win this game.
indiancowboy
4 Unit Play. #509. Take Denver +3.5 over New Orleans. (Thursday @ 3:30pm eastern). Denver is playing very well of late so we are going to take a shot on them here to win outright on the road. This is a conference game and of course, the majority of the public are favoring New Orleans at home here. Keep in mind that this is an afternoon game on New Year's Day. I can't imagine there being a full crowd there and in particular, in New Orleans on top of that. The last game that New Orleans played at home the attendance was 659 and that was against North Texas in the evening. I wouldn't be surprised if the attendance did not top 500 at the most today. Thus, little to no home court advantage. Tack on the fact that New Orleans beat this team last year 65-60 at home and 60-54 on the road, Denver has plenty of revenge coming into this game. Denver will get up for this game for that reason alone. Plus, the Pioneers are on a sound win streak. They have won 5 in a row including beating UC Riverside, top 150 Colorado State, Florida Atlantic and South Dakota State. Heck, this team even defeated Texas Arlington. This is not to take anything against New Orleans, but they come off losing to a team not even in Division I and they play a Denver team playing well that wants revenge badly. Plus, this is expected to be a very low scoring game so we will take our 3.5 points and look for the outright win here. Denver is a team that feeds off confidence as they are 9-2 ATS following a straight up win and 6-1 ATS when they allow 50 points or less to their opponent in their previous game.
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4 Unit Play. #509. Take Denver +3.5 over New Orleans. (Thursday @ 3:30pm eastern). Denver is playing very well of late so we are going to take a shot on them here to win outright on the road. This is a conference game and of course, the majority of the public are favoring New Orleans at home here. Keep in mind that this is an afternoon game on New Year's Day. I can't imagine there being a full crowd there and in particular, in New Orleans on top of that. The last game that New Orleans played at home the attendance was 659 and that was against North Texas in the evening. I wouldn't be surprised if the attendance did not top 500 at the most today. Thus, little to no home court advantage. Tack on the fact that New Orleans beat this team last year 65-60 at home and 60-54 on the road, Denver has plenty of revenge coming into this game. Denver will get up for this game for that reason alone. Plus, the Pioneers are on a sound win streak. They have won 5 in a row including beating UC Riverside, top 150 Colorado State, Florida Atlantic and South Dakota State. Heck, this team even defeated Texas Arlington. This is not to take anything against New Orleans, but they come off losing to a team not even in Division I and they play a Denver team playing well that wants revenge badly. Plus, this is expected to be a very low scoring game so we will take our 3.5 points and look for the outright win here. Denver is a team that feeds off confidence as they are 9-2 ATS following a straight up win and 6-1 ATS when they allow 50 points or less to their opponent in their previous game.
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