MARC LAWRENCE
5-2 L7 Bowls
100% Perfect Orange Bowl Beauty
VIRGINIA TECH vs CINCINNATI
Pick: VIRGINIA TECH +2.5
The Orange Bowl Thursday night is the setting for a showdown between the champs of the Big East (Cincinnati) and the ACC (Virginia Tech). The Bearcats have won 6 games in a row and head coach Brian Kelly is on everyone’s short list for a new hire in 2010. We don’t like the fact that they have surrendered 20 or more points in 4 of their final 5 games. That’s because Frank Beamer is 34-13 ATS as a head coach with Virginia Tech in games in which his team scores 20 or more points as an underdog, including 14-3 ATS against an .850 or greater opponent. The Hokies lost to Kansas as 3-point favorites in the Orange Bowl last year, making them an avenging bowl-returning dog. Toss in Beamer’s 4-0 ATS mark as a dog of 6 or fewer points off a SU and ATS win when taking on teams from the Big East and you can understand our admiration for the Techsters. After all, we have an affinity for bowl dogs with better defenses, especially those looking to make amends. Our database cements it with this play that tells us to: Play On any sub .700 ACC bowl dog of 5 or less points if the scored 10 or more points in their last game. That's because these teams are 12-2 SU and 13-1 ATS, including 11-0 ATS if the dog did not toss a shutout in its last game. Take the points with the Hokies.
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