NCAA HOOPS 151

[one51rum]

Kind of favoring N.Colorado +12 tonight at Wash st, but what I am liking more is the total at 158, these teams can shoot and they can score, N.Col has an eff shooting % of 53.5, and Wash st has it at 54.4 and N Col shoots 45.7% and Wash st 46.7%....wash st is giving up about 77 pts a game and N Col gives up about 79 pts a game, N Col is avg 83 a game and Wash st 87 a game so you see why the total is close to 160, I do think both teams tonight could get over 80 pts...at home Wash st has scored 90, 91, and 100 and N.Col scored 88 at Colorado in a 2 pt loss and on a neutral court they scored 78 vs SD st I am going OVER 158 and then a smaller play on Col+12 just think they can keep up with wash st here in what should be a higher scoring game 89-84

OVER 158

Col +12 both 1 unit plays hell with it

 

[one51rum]

McNeese st -3
Colgate +13
Howard +4
Idaho st +4
Over 149 NC st
OVER 149 Gonzaga
OVER 158 Wash st/N Col
N.Col+12

gl 151

 

[one51rum]

Do not understand the line of N.Fla-5 vs UNC ash N.Fla the much better shooting team here, I mean by a lot , UNF shooting 47% to 34% for UNC ash.....and UNF is shooting over 50% at home and UNC Ash is shooting 34% away last 3 games its the same UNF shooting 49% to 36% for Asheville, as their is more and more games the stats get better to use for sure, UNF is shooting the 2 at 56.6% to 35.3% for Asheville , Asheville is making 8 of 25 3's a game and UNF is making 11 of 31 a game , this line I think should be a bit higher, so might stay away, I know when you see this you should maybe just take UNF, and maybe I will, but it worries me when I see this, and the line has actually went down from 5.5 to 5 maybe just watch and see if I was right to hold off,

 

[one51rum]

looking at Wichita st -16 also I never usually like giving big points or really taking big points but this seems doable I think Wichita wins this by 22 much better shooting team 46.5% to 33.7% and Monmouth is giving up 52% shooting on defense ...2 pt shooting is Monmouth 35% and Wicjita 50.4% just not enough games yet to use stats right, and the home and away stats after each team has like 4-5 home and away games it becomes helpful, but Wichita st I think has a good shot at covering this tonight

 

[Cheddar]

looking at Wichita st -16 also I never usually like giving big points or really taking big points but this seems doable I think Wichita wins this by 22 much better shooting team 46.5% to 33.7% and Monmouth is giving up 52% shooting on defense ...2 pt shooting is Monmouth 35% and Wicjita 50.4% just not enough games yet to use stats right, and the home and away stats after each team has like 4-5 home and away games it becomes helpful, but Wichita st I think has a good shot at covering this tonight

Wichita State was on my short list

 

[one51rum]

So glad Delaware covered a lot of people were on Bryant, i said both teams could get over 80, I ended up catching Delaware at +4.5 right before halftime they were down like 3 , but i did say i liked them, score ends up being 85-84 congrats Delaware, i was thinking of trying an over live but it was 173 and just took Delaware, they are going to score 80+ a lot this year

 

[one51rum]

So glad Delaware covered a lot of people were on Bryant, i said both teams could get over 80, I ended up catching Delaware at +4.5 right before halftime they were down like 3 , but i did say i liked them, score ends up being 85-84 congrats Delaware, i was thinking of trying an over live but it was 173 and just took Delaware, they are going to score 80+ a lot

 

[one51rum]

So far was dead on about the N Fla line being too low, why only 5, game is going to go over for sure, but UNCLE Ash is winning late

 

[one51rum]

stay away from these friggin totals should have stayed away from Colgate too, no write up which usually means I am following others

 

[one51rum]

look at UTRV down] 2 at Wisconsin that's the team I talk about a lot because forever they play so many tough teams before their conf starts, this team plays anyone, and the coach once said its because even though they will lose most it builds them up for conf games and when you think about it that is true, here they are almost beating a good Wisconsin team on the road 85-84 42 sec's ;eft to play...both teams shooting 50% want to know something else, Wisconsin has taken 30 ft's making 25 UTRV has made 9 of 11 that's crazy Wisconsin has made 16 more points on ft's yet up just 1 rio grande has the ball down 1 with 20 sec's left

 

[one51rum]

thats why I do not lay big points Wichita st only won by 4 glad I stayed away but did a write up on McNeese they covered, on Howard they won outright, did one on Delaware they covered and it went over, did one on N.Fla and why I thought that line was a trap and it was as Asheville wins outright, now I would have lost Wichita st, but Delaware wins, the over hits, Asheville covers, should have just bet them all , I'll take going 3-1 on those damnit but stayed away except a live play on Delaware, maybe some read those and they play them ...didn't do any write ups on my over plays either...lol pretty much if I do not do some kind of write up, then its not a well thought out play...want to stay up and look at tomorrows games but have to get up at 4am

 

[one51rum]

Well another 2 pt losses as n.col loses by 14. They were down 8 with 3 mins left 74-66....they were down 2 55-57 with 10 mins. Last 20 secs n.col missed 3 3pters that's how close. And the over falls shor
Some people got lucky. If ya took pacific +21.5 u covered losing 91-72...I want to win my bets by 1 or 2 damnit.
And am heading for another close one as Idaho st is up 1 point

 

[one51rum]

Each team plays about 4 more games it will be easier in my opinion to handicapp , better stats. Home and away to compare.

 

[one51rum]

from now on no games but my own, IDAHO st +4 wins by 19, I bet that game last night at -1 Idaho st -1 and that line jumps to Fullerton-4 then settles to -2,5 and what happens?? Idaho st loses by 1 point those are the games I love and I called for the outright win, but I'll take the 1 pt loss and the cover, Idaho st seems to play very well on the road again no more plays without some explaining ....and again we lose the OVER gonzaga by a basket I swear

 

[one51rum]

3-5 but gave out others but oh well really liking SIUE Edwards +2 on the road @ Wisc GB will have write up later

 

[one51rum]

SIUE+4 I have talked about this team a lot, a couple of times before they played then forgot to use them and they covered, well I am on them this time at WiscGB, both teams are 3-1 ats so far this year, Over is 5-0-1 last 6 overall.....but SIUE is 0-4 under so far, all unders.....SIUE is 3-1 ats away so far, Wis GB is 0-1 ats at home ....and SIUE is 5-0 ats last 5 vs the Horizon league, this is their 5th str road game, and they have won the last 3 all as a road dog they have won out right.....Last 3 games SIUE has scored 76, 77, 79 pts all on the road, Wisc GB hjas scored 76, 77, 83 and last game at Providence just 65, they have 1 home game this year they lost to st Thomas Mn 90-76 the total is 147 seems like these 2 should get over that, I seen this line earlier today at WGB-2 its now 3.5 or 4 , I like SIUE just based that they have proven they can win on the road, and cover....SIUE is averaging 64 shots a game to 58 for WGB, they are making 27 a game to 26 , SIUE is avg 9 3's a game out of 26 taken a game and WGB is making 11 a game out of 32 taken so about the same % made , SIUE is shooting just over 42% and WGB is giving up 46.6% shooting, WGB is shooting 45.7% and SIUE is giving up 41.4% shooting , again SIUE is making 27 shots and WGB is giving up 29 made shots a game and WGB is making 26 shots and SIUE is giving up 24 made shots a game....
SIUE is avg 11 offensive rebounds a game and WGB is giving up 11, WGB is averaging 4.5 off rebounds a game and SIUE is giving up 9 a game , both teams assist well, something I pay attention too, if you avg a lot of assist it means your spreading the ball around, lots of passing, which is good....last 3 games SIUE has a +14 score margin and WGB has a -4.7 score margin last 3 SIUE playing well, their defense is better, WGB might be shooting a little better, but they did lose their only home game to st Thomas so I will try the dog here

SIUE+4 1 unit lean on the OVER 147

 

[one51rum]

Niagara@ BG
both teams are struggling somewhat, Niagara 1-2 and BG 1-3 ...looking at this game, the total is like 150 -151 HR is offering 148, I do think there should be some points here, BG at home can put up some points, but they also give up points, getting this at 148 I am going to go OVER the total here, Niagara giving up 90 a game and BG is giving up 85 a game, both are making 3's so I am going to go OVER 148 here
and a lean to Niagara

OVER 148 Niagara/BG

 

[one51rum]

Purdue at Marquette

I am going to go with Marquette tonight and I bought down to -4, hate the # 5 ....... both teams are 4-0 Purdue is traveling 188 miles to play this game tonight, I had Marquette as a send out last week when they played at Maryland and covered by 1 I think, Purdue has played the better schedule so far for sure, but these are 2 good teams, both teams are avg like 84 pts a game on offense, and Purdue is giving up 71 a game and Marquette 65 a game, this will be Purdues 1st road game, and this will be a test for them for sure, Purdue is shooting 51% on the year but again all games were at home, Marq is giving up just 41% shooting this year, and Marq is shooting 45% and Purdue is giving up 43% shooting, Marquette is taking 7 more shots a game 62-55, and both are making 28-29 a game, Purdue is shooting the 3 very well so far 46% but again all games at home and Marquette is giving up 30% from 3 and Marq is making 9.5 of 31 3 pt attempts and Purdue is making 10 of 22, , one thing I like is that Marq is avg 12 steals a game so far, and they do have a road win at Maryland, and Purdue is avg just 4 steals a game ,Purdue is avg 10 to's a game while Marquette is forcing about 18 a game, nice advantage to Marquette there,
Purdue has won the last 2 meetings, both were close 78-75 in a push, and 75-70 when Marquette was+7.5 ......never know how teams are going to play on their 1st away game, but I think tonight Marquette gets the win here and covers this by 7-8 pts

Marquette -4 1 unit

 

[one51rum]

Gardner Webb @ Charlotte....this game is at Charlotte but it is also only 45 miles from GW, so maybe GW will have some fans there tonight, Gardner has not played bad so far this year, I was on them earlier this year, when they played at NCC and they won outright 88-82.....they also I have a 1 point win at home vs Elon 80-79, there other 2 games were on the road at Pitt and Tenn, Charlotte won at home twice they beat Presbyterian 88-79 and they beat Richmond 65-48, and they lost on the road at Utah st 103-74..
Shooting wise GW matches up well with Charlotte, GW is avg 74 pts a game while giving up 81, and Charlotte is avg 75 while giving up 77.....both have eff shooting % of 54 GW is shooting 48.5% and Charlotte is giving up 52% shooting , Charlotte is shooting 47% and GW is giving it up at 48%, GW is shooting the 3 at 36.6% and Charlotte is shooting it at 35.3% Charlotte is making 24.7 shots out of 52 taken and GW is making 27,5 out of 57 shots taken.....GW is making 6.5 3's out of 17.8 taken, and Charlotee is making 8 of 23 taken.....GW is avg 9 offensive boards a game to 6 for Charlotte , GW is blocking 4.8 shots a game and Charlotte 0.3 a game, GW does have to cut their to's down , avg 16 a game to just 10 for Charlotte ...GW is 3-1 ats this year and 3-0 as a dog......Charlotte is 1-2 ats and 1-1 as a home favorite

like GW and they have been covering, and I do like that they only have a short bus ride to this game, and may even have some fans there,
Gardner Webb +8 1 unit -120

 

[one51rum]

SIUE+4
Gardner Webb+8
Marquette-4
Over 148 Niagara
Longwood-7

small play Niagara+9


Longwood -7 at Binghamton Longwood for sure the better team here, also looking for a 1st half play maybe, they have won all thir games , and they did only beat TnMartin by 2 64-62 because they were down at half at home by 9 but came back to win, but I think this could be a spot for a 1st half play, but it is their 1st road game this year, they are -3,5 or -2.5 -135 both teams are shooting 42% but Bing is giving up 46% shooting this year on defense and Longwood is giving up 38%, Longwood is avg 75 pts a game this year and Bing is giving up over 90 pts a game, and Bing is avg 64 pts a game and Longwood is giving up just 63 pts a game, so this could be a nice cover for Longwood I think if they just shoot their avg, ...Longwood only shoots the 3 at 28% but Bing is giving it up at 37.2%, and Bing is shooting the 3 at 35.6% but Longwood is only giving the 3 up at 21% that's pretty good defense right there...I am going to take Longwood -7 for the game, thought about buying down but I think they get the win here, and I think this would be a good 1st half play too

Longwood-7