NBA Systems 2014/15

[rolltide]

new + HHH

PLAY ON away fav, great team, after b2b2b 104+ points. 109-37-5 ATS (on Atlanta -2.5)
UNDER midseason game with extremely tired team playing 6th in 8. 27-70-1 o/u (ATL/CHI under 199.5) - cancels DT's play
OVER Kings home vs unrested, 51-19-1 o/u (SAC/LAC over 208)

 

[Biz]

23: PLAY ON away fav off non-cover vs home off cover - Washington -5
ATS: 141-77-4 (64.7%)
SUBSET: off DD Loss
ATS: 39-13-1 (75%)

28: OVER home team, low total after a lot of FG attempts and 12+ made 3's - Philadelphia/Detroit Over 194
O/U: 67-21-2 (76.1%)

39: Game 11+, OPPOSE lightly rested away fav vs decent team - Chicago +2.5
ATS: 41-77-2 (34.7%)

 

[rolltide]

thx. match with DT....missed this one:

OPPOSE eastern home team playing b2b unrested in 2nd game. 28-11 ATS (on Washington -5)

SAT:
PHI/DET over 194
Washington -5
SAC/LAC over 208

 

[indiana]

R/T..........good luck with your action today buddy.............indy

 

[rolltide]

Current Record: 156-126 (55.3%)
Sides: 96-67 (58.8%)
Totals: 60-59 (50.3%)

 

[rolltide]

OPPOSE big dog vs team off a dog win. 38-20-1 (on Okla City -9.5)
OPPOSE eastern home dogs vs west, high total. 45-17-1 (on Okla City -9.5)
PLAY ON away fav that just played home vs opponent traveling back from away game in different time zone. 130-55-3 (on Okla City -9.5)

 

[DT32]

Team off a blowout loss as a fav, now playing non-conference OVER (65-30) - Pelicans over 203

 

[Biz]

24: OVER Western conf game with low total - Utah/San Antonio Over 193.5
O/U: 92-34-3 (73%)

 

[rolltide]

thx guys

SUN:
NO/TOR over 203
UTA/SA over 193.5
Okla City -9.5

 

[DT32]

Monday

team that lost a dd lead now playing non-conference OVER (111-56)- rockets over 198.5 (line from BOL)
Team off a blowout loss as a fav, now non-conference OVER (65-31) - rockets over
play against heavy schedule in conference (41-64) - Pistons +8, nuggets +13.5

 

[rolltide]

Current Record: 157-128 (55.1%)
Sides: 97-67 (59.1%)
Totals: 60-61 (49.7%)

 

[rolltide]

Monday

team that lost a dd lead now playing non-conference OVER (111-56)- rockets over 198.5 (line from BOL)
Team off a blowout loss as a fav, now non-conference OVER (65-31) - rockets over
play against heavy schedule in conference (41-64) - Pistons +8, nuggets +13.5

thx DT... I'll check through your save list again in a bit as last two games just now getting lined and dbase is still missing about 6 totals. i'll used updated spreads later once we know biz's ... running my stuff and hhh once the totals get posted in dbase

 

[rolltide]

PLAY ON big dogs off a huge blowout loss vs opponent off b2b very high scoring games. 67-30, 3-1 (on Boston +12.5)


PLAY ON 1H season undervalued huge dogs off dog loss vs fav off fav cover win. 78-24 ATS, 5-6 (on Sixers +14, on Boston +12.5)


PLAY ON midseason away dogs on ats losing streak vs home fav on ats winning streak with home game on tap. 158-80-4 ATS, 10-4 (on Sixers +14, on Nuggets +13.5)


UNDER team off a win with very few fast break points, long game, where they didn't attempt a lot of 3's. 34-75-5 o/u, 3-11-1 o/u (MEM/DAL under 203)


PLAY ON rested team off away loss with more FG vs unrested opponent not off a dominating win. 55-23-3, 5-5-1 (on NY Knicks +7) - might OK based on next system


UNDER terrible team on horrible losing streak vs decent team. 22-54-3 o/u, 5-6 (NYK/NO under 193.5) - bad teams also 10-24 ATS L34


PLAY ON away team that beat this opponent by 30+ at home last meeting. 32-17-2 ATS, 5-2 (on Toronto -1)


UNDER home team exactly 1 game rest after road trip vs team with 1 game rest. 23-54 o/u, 5-7 o/u (ATL/DET under 203.5)




team specific on hold:
on Memphis vs >.600, 91-51-5 ATS (and 31-13-2 ATS subset in play today)
oppose Sixers vs good fast break teams, 35-12 ATS


MON:
Detroit +8
Denver +13.5
Boston +12.5
Knicks +7
Toronto pk
NYK/NO under 193.5
MEM/DAL under 203
HOU/IND over 196
ATL/DET under 203.5


i have time now to run Biz's so we'll have full card up before noon...

 

[rolltide]

biz...two that back others


UNDER both over .500 but one in bad form. 30-63-7 o/u, 1-2 o/u (ATL/DET under 203.5)
PLAY ON away fav off non-cover vs home dog off cover. 142-77-4 ATS, 22-14 (on Toronto -1)

MON:
Detroit +8
76ers +14
Denver +13.5
Boston +12.5
Knicks +7
Toronto -1
NYK/NO under 193.5
MEM/DAL under 203
HOU/IND over 196
ATL/DET under 203.5

 

[Biz]

Thx Tide, was just gonna run them but I see you got them. BOL today sir

 

[scorpion896]

Hey Tide, what are you specifying regarding 76ers against fast paced teams. Are you qualifying fast paced as a certain 5 or 6 teams or? Looks like they getting crushed today

 

[ECC]

Hey tide I've got Toronto at +1.5 now does that cancel that play out?

 

[DT32]

TuesdayOppose home dog off an away loss where they shot poorly (19-40) - Spurs -8 (chasing the line here)

 

[rolltide]

Hey Tide, what are you specifying regarding 76ers against fast paced teams. Are you qualifying fast paced as a certain 5 or 6 teams or? Looks like they getting crushed today

it's not about pace it's about the avg # of fast break points per game that the upcoming opponent has. I created it last year and have been meaning to update it but really no reason to do it since it keeps hitting. While there's an avg steals component to it if you just look at otA(fast break points) it's remarkable how consistent it has been since the 76ers downgraded their team.

opponents avg 12.6+ FBP per game... = 15-37 ATS (can tighten it a bit with opp avg steals) incl 1-15 ATS if opponent has 16.7+ per game
opponents avg <12.6 FBP per game... = 39-30-1 ATS

clearly 76ers struggle with good fast break teams and i really should have KO'd that bet but got too enamored with the 14 points. My fault

Hey tide I've got Toronto at +1.5 now does that cancel that play out?

no that was the 2nd one on toronto (the one requiring away fav). the other was PLAY ON away team that beat this opponent by 30+ at home last meeting. 32-17-2 ATS, 5-2 (on Toronto -1)

 

[rolltide]

Current Record: 164-131 (55.6%)
Sides: 100-70 (58.8%)
Totals: 64-61 (51.2%)